Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

Can someone explain, with the kind of weather we're expecting next week, how warm would one expect a shaded ground-level cellar to be? We have a cellar inside our back steps which has a small southeast-facing opening which is the entrance. That opening only sees direct sunlight for a few hours per day as the neighbour's wall + extension tend to block some of it out as well as the direction it faces.

If something was stored in the corner of a cave like that which gets *no* sunlight ever, how warm would the ambient temperature and surrounding air be?

I'm about to cellar a new batch of bottle conditioned beer which needs to be reasonably cool, and I'm wondering if I should wait to move it into that outdoor cave-cellar thing until this spell of warm weather passes, despite the fact that the cave itself gets very little direct sun and the corner the beer would be stored in gets absolutely none?

A comparison of +144 hrs across the 12z runs. Some nice agreement out to then though the ICON and ECM have the high more centred over us than Scandinavia.

GFS ensembles become very uncertain by the end of next week with a big mess. A wide spread between them. A stark contrast to earlier runs.

GFS:



UKMO:



ECM:



ICON:



GEM:

ECM shows maxima as high as 28 or 29c again by the end of next week with 28c being reached by Wednesday. 24c on Sunday and Monday, 25 or 26c on Tuesday. Minima as high as 18-21c on Friday morning (29th June).

I don't know what the hell the GFS was up to this evening. Seems to be no agreement among other models on it.

EDIT: Thanks Meteorite58 , good minds think alike.

So is there any thunderstorm potential coming up then, In the east anyway?

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just to say, if the house/apartment gets overpoweringly hot during the heatwave, do what our Southern European cousins do...

Keep windows closed during the day, yes that's right, otherwise you are letting in very hot air all day. Close blinds and curtains too during the day. Yes the darkness cools things down a bit.

Then when evening falls, and the sun has gone to bed, open windows and doors and blinds to let the cooler air circulate.

When abroad I could never understand why everywhere was shuttered up so much, but now I know!

Anyway as pp said, it's the humidity that's the killer here.

I would suspect that closing the windows is only useful if outdoor temperatures reach the high twenties or higher. If, for instance, you are near the coast and there is a cooling sea breeze outside, the last thing you need is the house to become a heat trap like a greenhouse.

Regarding humidity, a dew point of around 16C and upwards becomes increasingly uncomfortable regardless of where you are and what the weather is doing otherwise.

A temperature of 23C and dew point of 17C, with slack winds and wall to wall sun, in July 2005, had even the Spanish students sitting under trees in the shade to avoid the sun.
It got near 30C inland that day, but we were 'enjoying' the cool but moist sea breeze.

All I can see on the ECM this evening is that the higher temps are shifting more and more westwards.

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

For what it's worth, Dublin's highest temperature of 2017 was recorded on this day last year when it reached 28.6c in Phoenix Park. Map for that day which looks a little odd:




All from Met Eireann.

I remember it well. Felt like the Bahamas. Very windy too. 28c.

Mount Dillon 31c. I'm inclined to go with a 17:00 report.