House Viewings

dkav9 wrote: »

usually a big fan of DMcW - but he has it wrong. renting is a balls, the rental market is not deflated.

In a slightly drunken state last Wednesday I accidentally requested to make an offer on an EA's website. They got back to me and told me the current bid was 80k above asking (300k)! I was shocked to say the least, and luckily I am not planning to buy for at least 6 months, but reading the comments on this thread I am happy to be reassured that this is a COVID thing and not a symptom of the market at large...

not sure its a covid thing ..People like mcWilliams have been calling bubble since 2017 (even do there was no easy accessibility to lending due to the Banking regulations) and scaring people from buying, yet looking at it in hindsight prices went up and down and up and down a bit no major price increases or not the propetties of a bubble since 2017. Add in people then held off thinking Brexit was going to bring property down and now its covid and yet in the midst of the worlds greatest pandemic prices are going up. Look at mortgage approval rates through the roof, look at irish saving rates through the roof..There is a lot of pent up demand out that has been building for years..Add in new builds commencement were down over 20% last year and sure the builders are yet to get out of the blocks for 2021 so supply of new housing has been hit as well. I am sure Covid was the catalyst for demand to start coming on stream as nothing like being locked down in someone else's place or a small place for the guts of a year to make you want to move to your own or to a bigger space.

I pulled out of my bidding war. Just not comfortable with the amounts involved.

Have to hope it will get a little bit better when restrictions ease, but I have no idea

cintec wrote: »

Curious what was the asking price and the amount over it people where willing to pay, just looking myself and hope to not get into a bidding war.

Depends on where you are looking, seems in most urban areas properties are priced to attract attention.

When we looked we accepted that most would have X amount on top of asking at least so never got the hopes up with regards to asking prices near top end of budget.

Then when we did bid, its almost like a mind game - big and small increases more to scare off others, i started the bidding at many above asking and even then was blown out of the water.

Was tough going for us 120 viewings and 37 bidding wars (lost 36 haha) - think we could have got a few of the lost ones with smarter more aggressive bidding, bidding can often travel 10k in drips and draps but a 7k bid might end it.

My house purchase fell through last week . Was sale agreed since December
The difference in prices between now and before Xmas is nuts

Same houses im looking at with prices around 20/30k more

bubblypop wrote: »

Just wait a few months more. When restrictions end it should make a big difference

Have you any evidence of that I wouldn't be too quick to give advice unless you know something the rest of us don't?

bubblypop wrote: »

Just going on the estate agent I was speaking to last week, small local agent. He has 14/15 properties ready to go to market when restrictions end, he said the bigger ones DNG & the like have 30/40.

Anyway, its fairly obvious that there will be more properties on the market when things open up. Unless you think no-one is ever going to sell their houses again.....

And what happens to the people owning the 14/15 or 30/40 properties do they find a field and live in it?? trading up/down is a zero sum game when it comes to supply of property. The only way a +1 is added to the supply side is if someone selling is leaving the country and for the last 6 years we have had a plus figure in emigration inwards. There may be more selection but there will be a lot more competition as well

bubblypop wrote: »

Some won't be buying, cos they're dead.
Some won't be buying cos they're leaving the country
Some won't be buying in Dublin cis they're leaving the city.
Those that will be buying will also have more choice as more properties come on the market.
And I wouldn't rely on immigration going up this year or next

Ok on your first point births have far outstripped deaths for the last 100 years in this country so if anything there is a need for more houses. You cant just look at deaths and ignore our birth rate.

On your second point we have had more people coming into the country than leaving the country for The last 6 years even during 2020 and you think even do the population is increasing we will have more supply, all of these people need somewhere to live. Also corona has hit the globe would you really take the risk of leaving Ireland when the same corona related problems will be in the country your going to and leaving possible one of the most generous welfare systems on the globe?

Dublin might go down in price but other areas in the country may go up. Working from home will impact both rural and city prices but I think that impact will not be felt until the next generation of worker is working. I could be wrong.

So you dont see immigration going up have you anything tangible that points to this. As I can see the below points as an indicator of immigration going up.

I see the previous 6 years of plus net emigration in to Ireland
I see more high end tech and pharma jobs attracting people
Ireland is now the only English speaking country in the EU after Brexit, further making it more attractive to people in countries like China and Brazil who want to learn English
I also see the government cutting the refugee/asylum sectors wait period from 8 years to 4 months..

I see a sh1t load of emigration coming to Ireland once corona is gone.

bubblypop wrote: »

Just going on the estate agent I was speaking to last week, small local agent. He has 14/15 properties ready to go to market when restrictions end, he said the bigger ones DNG & the like have 30/40.

Anyway, its fairly obvious that there will be more properties on the market when things open up. Unless you think no-one is ever going to sell their houses again.....

Would they not be better off trickling them onto the market now instead of dumping them on the market at the same time

fliball123 wrote: »

And what happens to the people owning the 14/15 or 30/40 properties do they find a field and live in it?? trading up/down is a zero sum game when it comes to supply of property. The only way a +1 is added to the supply side is if someone selling is leaving the country and for the last 6 years we have had a plus figure in emigration inwards. There may be more selection but there will be a lot more competition as well

You're ignoring first time buyers on the demand side. Supply is so low at the minute that any additional houses for sale will surely help calm the crazy bidding wars that are happening right now. Instead of 5 people bidding on 1 house you might now have 6 people bidding on 2 houses.

fliball123 wrote: »

You still have 4 people needing a house that isnt there. Where are the additional houses coming from?

Absolutely, the overall supply is still an issue either way but doesn't change the point that was made that things should improve somewhat when things open up and more houses are on the market.

Improve ≠ solve

Mad_maxx wrote: »

around a year ago many thought the covid crisis would drive down prices and were comparing it to the 2008 credit crunch crisis , however unlike that period which lasted up until draghi took over at the ECB in 2012 , there is no liquidity crisis this time

the powers that be a year ago made the decision to flood the place with money , there is no credit shortage at all unlike a decade ago so there is a lot of money looking for a home and both savings and fixed income are paying nothing , the added news lately of banks suggesting they will charge depositers only adds to the risk appetite

prices are up 15% from this time a year ago in many places in that they dipped six or seven percent for a short few months at the start of the covid arrival but bounced back as quick and continued from there to where we are now

the market is remarkably strong

The market may well be strong in terms of upward pressure. There has certainly been a notable increase in price over the last few months. However, it isn't at the level you mentioned there according to the CSO. Perhaps there are pockets of movement in certain locations and price levels, but it needs to be mentioned that there's probably the guts of about 400 strands of the property market in this country.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2021/

You're talking maybe 1%-4% YoY. There's likely a lot of panic bidding at the moment too, plus we're dealing with a big unknown as to how the economy will manage in the medium term from all these lockdowns.

Bottom line is I'd be wary of trusting a market based on low volume, regardless of what it is. It could shoot up from here from all I know, but I'd recommend people take a chill pill on the hysteria.

bubblypop wrote: »

Will probably fly out the door, so to speak!

Most definitely will . Before Xmas the houses in this estate were selling for 340

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/19-temple-view-downs-clarehall-dublin-13/4487838#&gid=1&pid=1

Current offer on this 415k