[snow ghost]

Originally Posted by nacho libre

given the duration of this cold period, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the usual winter trend of February being our snowiest month is flipped this year once the atlantic takes over on Friday. However, joe bastardi, if i'm not mistaken, was the only one to predict the severity of this cold period and his prediction of when it would end(around now) was fairly accurate.
so it'll be interesting to see if he is right about the cold returning, but of course anything we see from now on is highly unlikely to be as severe as what has happened.

Nacho, in regards to snow, earlier today was probably the best chance we had for a white out - with the major atlantic precip hitting the cold. The cold dry air in recent weeks wasn't that great except for some moderate snow showers.

I hope that we could still get such a scenario before the winter is out.. the cold might not be so prolonged or intense this time but it could do the job with regards to turning the atlantic precip into a major snowfall.

I hope!

[nacho libre]

Originally Posted by snow ghost

Nacho, in regards to snow, earlier today was probably the best chance we had for a white out - with the major atlantic precip hitting the cold. The cold dry air in recent weeks wasn't that great except for some moderate snow showers.

I believe we could still get such a scenario before the winter is out.. the cold might be so prolonged or intense this time but it could do the job with regards to turning the atlantic precip into a major snowfall.

I hope!

we could, but as you said yourself the best snowfall is the one that is not expected - and its quite rare - as we've seen over the years. with this in mind no matter what wintryness maybe forecast for the rest of this winter, i am fairly positive it will not match what happened today in terms of length and sheer intensity- i've not seen snowfall that heavy before and accompanied by such strong winds either. as i type this it's still snowing(albeit lightly now)- that's close on 13 hours of non-stop snow. it's incredible and memorable.

so assuming, as is likely the case, we are now locked into a regime of mild south-westerlies for a few weeks, i'm still confident that we'll still see the odd day or two of snow before the middle of march but it will be insignificant compared to yesterday.

i'd love to be proven wrong - and please feel to bring up/remind me of this post if I am

[M.T. Cranium]

These past two winters may not be remembered as "epic" but at least they showed up to play.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 13 January, 2010
_______________________________

TODAY, leftover moisture from Tuesday's stormy weather will continue to dawdle northeast through central and eastern Ireland as well as Ulster and drop variable amounts of sleet, wet snow and cold rain, amounts will generally be 2-5 cms of snow or 2-5 mms of rain but there has been a heavier cluster embedded that could reactivate around Louth possibly. The rest of the country will likely stay overcast with brief breaks possible, and considerable fog or mist as snow continues to melt rather slowly. Western counties could see a few drizzly showers with snow possible over higher ground. Highs will be in the range of 1-3 C east and 3-5 C in the west although 5-7 C is possible in Kerry and nearby parts of Limerick and Cork, over to Waterford.

TONIGHT will continue rather cool and foggy with some patches of drizzle or freezing drizzle mixed with snow grains. Lows will be generally -3 to -1 C but could fall a bit lower if it clears up substantially (then really dense fog could develop later).

THURSDAY will be a milder day with a freshening southerly wind, a few spits of rain and variable amounts of cloud, highs near 8 C west to 4 C northeast.

FRIDAY is likely to become very mild with strong southerly winds developing. Periods of rain will move in rather gradually and become heavy late in the day. Highs will be 11-13 C at lower elevations, to 4-7 C higher up, and whatever snow is left will melt quickly. Rainfalls could reach 25-50 mms and winds SSE 35-55 mph. Severe flooding will have to be a concern given all these variables.

SATURDAY will stay very mild with the rain moving east and ending by mid-day west to east, temperatures staying in the 7-11 C range then falling off by evening. Winds will drop off to SW then NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking colder but still near seasonal averages with highs of about 7-8 C and lows near freezing. There may be some sleety showers at times, as well as brief sunny intervals.

By about TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY, Russia may be sending another gift to the people of western Europe, and unfortunately, it's not free natural gas. This outbreak looks a bit subdued on the charts but it won't be far from freezing by day and possibly -5 C at night if this materializes. With east winds, there may be a return of at least some light snow. It has the look of a 2-3 day event likely to be followed by another surge of mild Atlantic weather. This fits with the general concept of a strong wind and rain event around the 26-27 January "northern max" lunar event and the 30 January full moon. If we don't happen to see an end to the renewed cold before those, count on some really wintry weather, but my money's on mild, windy weather then (so far). I should probably check with Joe, Ken and Nostradamus (and Danno for sure).

It continues to be unreasonably warm here, with a light rain at times, 12-13 C even at this time of the night (going on 9 p.m.) ... updates later.

[Graces7]

Thank you for this.. I am trying to plan my "Great Escape.."

Friday may still be a little soon given the state of the road.. Hoping still OK Monday.. Need the bank so Saturday is no use...

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 13 January, 2010
_______________________________

TODAY, leftover moisture from Tuesday's stormy weather will continue to dawdle northeast through central and eastern Ireland as well as Ulster and drop variable amounts of sleet, wet snow and cold rain, amounts will generally be 2-5 cms of snow or 2-5 mms of rain but there has been a heavier cluster embedded that could reactivate around Louth possibly. The rest of the country will likely stay overcast with brief breaks possible, and considerable fog or mist as snow continues to melt rather slowly. Western counties could see a few drizzly showers with snow possible over higher ground. Highs will be in the range of 1-3 C east and 3-5 C in the west although 5-7 C is possible in Kerry and nearby parts of Limerick and Cork, over to Waterford.

TONIGHT will continue rather cool and foggy with some patches of drizzle or freezing drizzle mixed with snow grains. Lows will be generally -3 to -1 C but could fall a bit lower if it clears up substantially (then really dense fog could develop later).

THURSDAY will be a milder day with a freshening southerly wind, a few spits of rain and variable amounts of cloud, highs near 8 C west to 4 C northeast.

FRIDAY is likely to become very mild with strong southerly winds developing. Periods of rain will move in rather gradually and become heavy late in the day. Highs will be 11-13 C at lower elevations, to 4-7 C higher up, and whatever snow is left will melt quickly. Rainfalls could reach 25-50 mms and winds SSE 35-55 mph. Severe flooding will have to be a concern given all these variables.

SATURDAY will stay very mild with the rain moving east and ending by mid-day west to east, temperatures staying in the 7-11 C range then falling off by evening. Winds will drop off to SW then NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking colder but still near seasonal averages with highs of about 7-8 C and lows near freezing. There may be some sleety showers at times, as well as brief sunny intervals.

By about TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY, Russia may be sending another gift to the people of western Europe, and unfortunately, it's not free natural gas. This outbreak looks a bit subdued on the charts but it won't be far from freezing by day and possibly -5 C at night if this materializes. With east winds, there may be a return of at least some light snow. It has the look of a 2-3 day event likely to be followed by another surge of mild Atlantic weather. This fits with the general concept of a strong wind and rain event around the 26-27 January "northern max" lunar event and the 30 January full moon. If we don't happen to see an end to the renewed cold before those, count on some really wintry weather, but my money's on mild, windy weather then (so far). I should probably check with Joe, Ken and Nostradamus (and Danno for sure).

It continues to be unreasonably warm here, with a light rain at times, 12-13 C even at this time of the night (going on 9 p.m.) ... updates later.

[WolfeIRE]

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium

If we don't happen to see an end to the renewed cold before those, count on some really wintry weather, but my money's on mild, windy weather then (so far). I should probably check with Joe, Ken and Nostradamus (and Danno for sure). .

I just asked the now resident West Clare groan/moan/rumble monster about it MT. He is not too sure but is very excited about the prospects of scaring the bejaysus out of me again if it does happen.

[snow ghost]

Originally Posted by nacho libre

we could, but as you said yourself the best snowfall is the one that is not expected - and its quite rare - as we've seen over the years. with this in mind no matter what wintryness maybe forecast for the rest of this winter, i am fairly positive it will not match what happened today in terms of length and sheer intensity- i've not seen snowfall that heavy before and accompanied by such strong winds either. as i type this it's still snowing(albeit lightly now)- that's close on 13 hours of non-stop snow. it's incredible and memorable.

so assuming, as is likely the case, we are now locked into a regime of mild south-westerlies for a few weeks, i'm still confident that we'll still see the odd day or two of snow before the middle of march but it will be insignificant compared to yesterday.

i'd love to be proven wrong - and please feel to bring up/remind me of this post if I am

Nacho,

In my experience, extreme weather like a stray dog has a habit of pretending it's leaving only to turn up on your doorstep again not too long afterwards.

Don't be suprised if the recent rabid cold, that snapped at Ireland, comes back for a bigger bite when we're least expecting it.

[InKonspikuou2]

M.T. Cranium.

Did you live in Ireland before or are you just interested in the weather here? Curious because you really go into a lot of detail and obviously spend a lot of time on your forecasts. Which are rarely wrong and why i use them as my main source. Anyways thanks and keep up the good work.

[hotwhiskey]

M.T

I really appreciate your forecast over the cold snap your detail and your very high accuracy in predicting the weather. I for one and all who visit thank you for your time and effort you put in. I will be calling in on a daily basis to check your daily postings that i can rely on in confidence not like those Muppet's in M.E.

[ch750536]

Being fair to ME, they have far more pressure and politics to contend with than MT. Not belittling MT of course.

[hotwhiskey]

Originally Posted by ch750536

Being fair to ME, they have far more pressure and politics to contend with than MT. Not belittling MT of course.

True! very true. All i am going to say is M.E are are not very good with there predictions in cold weather it has happened before and this year and it will happen again.

[M.T. Cranium]

Since ye asked ...

I have spent the grand total of two weeks in Ireland, twas in the winter of 1978 which for some unknown reason came in the latter half of June.

Highlight ... I watched the finals of the 1978 World Cup in a hotel lounge in Westport. I regret not going further up the west coast on that trip, everything was quite enchanting all around the trip despite some foul weather.

I have Irish roots having been born with the surname O'Donnell but due to adoption at birth my meat-world last name is Smith and I guess it's too late to do anything about this now, but I was born in the UK. Parents decided to emigrate to Canada early on (1957) and I lived in Ontario most of these past many years, moving out to the west coast here in 1995.

I have a long-standing interest in climate research and long-range forecasting as well as severe weather forecasting and could be described as a renegade or maverick forecaster, my training is that of a "climatologist" instead of meteorologist (up go the eyebrows in certain places) but I lucked into a four-year practicum at private forecasting companies in my youth, back in the good old days when you had to draw your own maps and gaze at maps pinned on an office wall. If they knew then what we would have now ... it's amazing to me the information revolution, and quite frankly, forecasting has only edged forward a little bit, mainly because the computer maps are better in days 2 to 5 than in the 1970s. The first day forecasts probably haven't improved much at all.

Anyway, how I got to be here on boards.ie is like this ... about 2005, I realized that my North American research needed some real-time expansion to Atlantic and European research, so I started poking around on the intertoobs, found the government websites of course, and net-weather as well as the old BBC forum which has gone defunct I believe. From net-weather I launched out into a smaller forum called weatherchat which is really a sort of refuge from bigger internet forums for weather weenies such as ourselves, happened to meet Darkman who has since dropped out of sight on boards (but was active in 2009) who told me how great boards.ie was, and he was right ... this is a terrific forum, I mean both the weather part of it and the larger forum, I'm not sure if any other country has anything quite like it.

So I approach all this as a learning experience that benefits my research, which sadly is looking like a pass-off to somebody younger around 2020 when I start losing what's left of my faculties, because with the global warming frenzy in the mainstream community, alternative research (I'm a sort of kinder, gentler Ken Ring) has about as much chance of being funded as Slovenia has of winning the World Cup. (Go Slovenia)

Now, when I started on this weather forum, I just mostly lurked and picked up all sorts of interesting details, then the forecasting contest here seemed in danger of lapsing so I volunteered to take it on, realized that there was a sort of vacuum in terms of day to day forecasts here, but never thinking that it would reach out beyond the forum regulars (who have extensive forecasting ability that I try to draw on in challenging situations, anything good you might have to say about boards forecasting must be extended to the group because I pick their brains for ideas whether they know it or not just by reading their comments and threads ... any shortcomings on the other hand fall on me entirely, so it's not share the blame).

Anyway, lucky there's no real weather today ... through this whole process I have had to upgrade my knowledge of Ireland's geography considerably, it was never that bad I suppose being a geographer by inclination, but you know how it is when you've spent two weeks in a country and grasped the essentials from maps, there are many, many details that you don't perceive and I am still picking them up one by one. It certainly makes my concept of the ideal three-week Irish holiday (a hazy objective for the time frame 2012 to 2015) much different from the average tourist's plans (and even the first time I was not really your average tourist).

I've said this before maybe on another thread, but what I really enjoy on this forum is the banter and the good humour in general, just the user names alone are worth the price of admission. I'm active on net-weather in a lesser sort of way, and while it's generally friendly there, this forum is considerably better on that score ... now I feel this winter especially, it is beginning to catch up on the technical side with all the excellent threads that the weather folks put up for general viewing (and I don't have anything to do with that, it would have happened anyway).

As to "being Irish" that's a sort of interesting point for me, I grew up thinking I was 100% English and as such an English immigrant to Canada, but I seemed to gravitate towards Irish friends. Then I discovered due to the inheritance of legal documents that I had the O'Donnell background so this rather suddenly (at age 22) established that I was perhaps half or even fully Irish in terms of genetic background (you never know for sure with Irish surnames in England of course). I'm not one of those people who "has to know" all about such things, so I prefer the mystery of ambiguity (and I'm sure the O'Donnells do as well).

I'm not really up on Irish culture as much as some, but I developed an interest in Irish literature in my youth, so that's another tie I have with your country. I also play golf, and that's yet another reason to want to visit Ireland again some time before, well, you know, before I lose my short game.

This past month I have put a lot of time into the forecasts mostly because I'm determined to understand what seems quite complicated, and you never get to a point where you're fully satisfied of course. But given that I was already working on UK forecasts for the other site and following the developments for my research interests, this has not involved a lot of extra work beyond the actual production of said forecasts.

Hope that's not too much information, now back to our regularly scheduled programming, a film entitled "They Came for Wolfe at Midnight."

[Queen-Mise]

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 13 January, 2010
_______________________________

TODAY, leftover moisture from Tuesday's stormy weather will continue to dawdle northeast through central and eastern...

Just had to highlight that word, it not one you hear on weather forecasts too often

[WolfeIRE]

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium

Hope that's not too much information, now back to our regularly scheduled programming, a film entitled "They Came for Wolfe at Midnight."

hehe

[paulhac]

Thanks for your post M.T. I enjoyed reading it as I do all your posts. It must be something about the M.T. wit thats evident in all your posts that helps keep people interested in what you write not to mention your skill at forecasting and even if you are not fully born and bred Irish your still most welcome here on Boards
Thanks
Paul