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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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Comments

  • #4742
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    How could inflation kill off his mortgage debt unless it reaches Zimbabwe type levels?

    We are already one of the most expensive countries in the EU from wages to rents to consumer prices.

    We’re not London, New York etc. where multinationals need to be here in order to run their businesses.

    Any significant increase in inflation and corresponding wages (which it appears is what he is hoping for) will force them to rethink their presence here, especially in light of the new OECD global tax reforms.

    If they rethink their presence here, that’s both his job and the property market gone IMO

    If he’s not working for a multinational, being a public sector worker won’t help much either as the state won’t be able to afford to pay even 30% of his current salary IMO

    Props rule of thumb for your posts now is anything on the line proceeding IMO is usually nonsense you have been given links to posts about MNCs increasing their work numbers here as well as one that Ireland will be the biggest winners of Brexit (its a couple of pages back)..Your comments are nothing more than scaremongering your like a kid who wants a property price drop and wants one now even if it means the country goes to hell in a handbag just to prove you right..relax with your silliness.


  • #4743
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,651 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    This thread has become like the Sweden avoiding lockdown one. Same obsessive personalities at play.


  • #4744
    Danzy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,222 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    awec wrote: »
    Apparently there was some huge event in the UK the past few years which is going to have massive economic and social consequences going forward for them, did you hear anything about that?

    Anyway, there is no point comparing the UK to us, though I'm sure you're aware of this. Their payout scheme was completely different, they were paying out 80% of people's wages up to a limit that was twice as high as anyone on our top rate of PUP (we were paying out less than minimum wage).

    The UK also has a larger Service sector.


  • #4745
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    PropQueries wrote: »
    How could inflation kill off his mortgage debt unless it reaches Zimbabwe type levels?

    We are already one of the most expensive countries in the EU from wages to rents to consumer prices.

    We’re not London, New York etc. where multinationals need to be here in order to run their businesses.

    Any significant increase in inflation and corresponding wages (which it appears is what he is hoping for) will force them to rethink their presence here, especially in light of the new OECD global tax reforms.

    If they rethink their presence here, that’s both his job and the property market gone IMO

    If he’s not working for a multinational, being a public sector worker won’t help much either as the state won’t be able to afford to pay even 30% of his current salary IMO

    Could we maybe put to bed the theory that everything under the sun is going to cause the MNCs to leave.

    They are actively investing in IE.

    This is a conspiracy theory. Nothing more.


  • #4746
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭[Deleted User]


    Banks leaving/closing branches.Third bank anounced changes.
    It does not look that economy will recover and there will be bussiness as usual.
    The banks representatives could say what they want but things does not look good.
    Very bad signs.


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  • #4747
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,651 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I believe the government looked into rent controls but desisted on worries it would be unconstitutional, which is silly, because the constitution doesn't actually guarantee property rights.

    http://www.supremecourt.ie/supremecourt/sclibrary3.nsf/(WebFiles)/7FC625DAD10A956C802575F3002D6B7E/$FILE/Housing_%5B1983%5D%20IR%20181.htm

    I don't understand that ruling, because the constitution specifically states that property rights can be extinguished if it's for the greater good. Some senior judge/s must have been one of those affected so got it fixed.


  • #4748
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    discussion of the Berlin rental market moved here


  • #4749
    thefridge2006
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


    Exchequer deficit swells to €14bn as lockdown hits tax take

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/exchequer-deficit-swells-to-14bn-as-lockdown-hits-tax-take-1.4499249

    What happened the money they stuck in the piggy bank in a "worse case scenario super fund" to deal with the twin-threat posed by Covid-19 and Brexit

    The truth is, they haven't a scoobies about what's going to happen and things are looking a lot worse than they first thought.

    God only knows what's coming down the line. I feel sorry for people who are buying houses in the middle of all this at record prices. I just can't see how it makes sense but that's just me


  • #4750
    thefridge2006
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


    Firms face ‘very tough conversations’, warns Mairead McGuinness

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/firms-face-very-tough-conversations-warns-mairead-mcguinness-1.4499337

    Bleak to say the least....

    “There is a risk the crisis could leave very deep scars in the economic and social fabric of Europe: bankruptcies, job losses, and young people again being hit, as they were in the last crisis. So we could see an increase in long-term unemployment and worsening inequality"

    “The truth is there will have to be very tough conversations in workplaces and boardrooms, and those conversations need to start yesterday.”

    “People are being supported to hold on to their work and businesses are being given supports to tide them through this. For some sectors, the impact is very deep.”


  • #4751
    HansKroenke
    Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    Firms face ‘very tough conversations’, warns Mairead McGuinness

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/firms-face-very-tough-conversations-warns-mairead-mcguinness-1.4499337

    Bleak to say the least....

    “There is a risk the crisis could leave very deep scars in the economic and social fabric of Europe: bankruptcies, job losses, and young people again being hit, as they were in the last crisis. So we could see an increase in long-term unemployment and worsening inequality"

    “The truth is there will have to be very tough conversations in workplaces and boardrooms, and those conversations need to start yesterday.”

    “People are being supported to hold on to their work and businesses are being given supports to tide them through this. For some sectors, the impact is very deep.”

    Since property prices and rents don't seem to have fallen by much, people should rightly be expecting salary freezes or increases, particularly with inflation expected to increase. It is hard to see a good outcome if jobs are being cut or salaries decreased when the cost of living is not falling. But at the same time, individuals should be pushing as much cash as they can to their own rainy day fund now while they can, reducing debt and not taking on any new debt at the same time.


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  • #4752
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭combat14


    looks like it is time to cut the dole, HAP payments, COVID payments and business supports the country simply afford all these payments at current rates and borrowing any more

    serious crisis on the way if we dont tighten our belt


  • #4753
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,781 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    combat14 wrote:
    serious crisis on the way if we dont tighten our belt

    Seriously, fiscal conservatives need to move on from this one, in order to grow our way out of this crisis, we must also expand our money supply to do so, either we expand that via public borrowing or private borrowing, as that's how money supply expansion is done. We have become over reliant on the private sector money supply, via credit creation, and under reliant on the public sector, via bond markets, such an approach is highly unstable, and tends to inflate asset markets such as property.


  • #4754
    thefridge2006
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


    [PHP][/PHP]
    combat14 wrote: »
    looks like it is time to cut the dole, HAP payments, COVID payments and business supports the country simply afford all these payments at current rates and borrowing any more

    serious crisis on the way if we dont tighten our belt

    Fully agree. HAP is the biggest joke I've ever seen not to mention all the scamming that takes place on it. We really do live in the land of milk and honey


  • #4755
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,781 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    thefridge2006 wrote:
    Fully agree. HAP is the biggest joke I've ever seen not to mention all the scamming that takes place on it. We really do live in the land of milk and honey

    Absolutely, since we keep inflating property markets, and the funniest part of it is, the longer we play this game, the more taxes it's gonna take to try rectify the problem


  • #4756
    Markitron
    Registered Users Posts: 3,157 ✭✭✭Markitron


    cnocbui wrote: »
    This thread has become like the Sweden avoiding lockdown one. Same obsessive personalities at play.

    Hasn't it always been like that?


  • #4757
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    Exchequer deficit swells to €14bn as lockdown hits tax take

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/exchequer-deficit-swells-to-14bn-as-lockdown-hits-tax-take-1.4499249

    What happened the money they stuck in the piggy bank in a "worse case scenario super fund" to deal with the twin-threat posed by Covid-19 and Brexit

    The truth is, they haven't a scoobies about what's going to happen and things are looking a lot worse than they first thought.

    God only knows what's coming down the line. I feel sorry for people who are buying houses in the middle of all this at record prices. I just can't see how it makes sense but that's just me

    Why it makes sense to Rent?
    How come you so confident that the ones who bought recently are in worst position then the ones Renting?


  • #4758
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    According to the Irish Independent, the Minister for Housing has said that it's only the opposition that are against his affordable housing scheme:

    "Speaking on RTE News at One yesterday, Minister Darragh O’Brien flatly denied there had been a notable level of criticism directed at the scheme, other than from the usual suspects. “There hasn’t actually been a lot of criticism, there has been some predictable criticism from the political side – the opposition,”

    The article goes on to say:

    "To date, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), the Central Bank, the Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers (IPAV), and a former secretary-general of the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DPER) have all criticised the Government’s proposed shared equity scheme."

    Link to article in Irish Independent today: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/government-ploughing-on-with-affordable-homes-scheme-despite-what-experts-say-40151749.html


  • #4759
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    combat14 wrote: »
    looks like it is time to cut the dole, HAP payments, COVID payments and business supports the country simply afford all these payments at current rates and borrowing any more

    serious crisis on the way if we dont tighten our belt

    Not sure cutting dole is either a wise move or would save the country much. Dole doesn't cost us much as a percentage of overall government expenditure and there's the social cohesion aspect to think of as well IMO, especially since many are not actually claiming dole, but their insurance i.e. PRSI. We would probably save more money by cutting grants to e.g. farmers.

    Cutting PUP payments wouldn't impact the government expenditure either as that's primarily paid from the pre-covid surplus in the PRSI fund which was funded by the very same workers the state put out of work to begin with.

    While I am against HAP since I learned what it really was, cutting it now would only hurt the most vulnerable i.e. tenants, who have little to no bargaining power and it is especially wrong to cut HAP now given that it was Government policy that drove rents up to unaffordable levels in the first place.

    I would also be against cutting supports to the business sector given that it was the state who forced them to close to begin with. Hardly their fault.

    I think we should start by looking at why the Government thought now was the right time to agree pay rises for the public sector IMO


  • #4760
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,014 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    PropQueries wrote: »
    According to the Irish Independent, the Minister for Housing has said that it's only the opposition that are against his affordable housing scheme:

    "Speaking on RTE News at One yesterday, Minister Darragh O’Brien flatly denied there had been a notable level of criticism directed at the scheme, other than from the usual suspects. “There hasn’t actually been a lot of criticism, there has been some predictable criticism from the political side – the opposition,”

    The article goes on to say:

    "To date, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), the Central Bank, the Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers (IPAV), and a former secretary-general of the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DPER) have all criticised the Government’s proposed shared equity scheme."

    Link to article in Irish Independent today: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/government-ploughing-on-with-affordable-homes-scheme-despite-what-experts-say-40151749.html


    Elain Loughlin from the IE described well the plan to plough ahead with the scheme despite all the criticism


    "Confidence can be a virtue, but blind self-belief is not."



    https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40235960.html


  • #4761
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,463 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    PropQueries wrote: »
    According to the Irish Independent, the Minister for Housing has said that it's only the opposition that are against his affordable housing scheme:

    Eoghan O Broin is making the point that this will interefere with supply and demand and artificially increase house prices. When SF are the ones advocating for a freer market and less government intervention in popular causes, something is amiss.

    My prediction for the affordable housing scheme is that they will introduce it, but they will make it very difficulty to access. They might say that it only applies to houses where the building commenced in or after 2021 for example, or they will insist on the government shared equity being the first charge, thus making it unattractive for banks to lend money.

    My simple solution to all of this is for the government to provide funding directly to builders to build new houses and have a profit sharing scheme with them and an undertaking to cover any losses they suffer. That is the best way to increase supply without causing dramatic distortions in the price paid by buyers.


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  • #4762
    jill_valentine
    Registered Users Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    God only knows what's coming down the line. I feel sorry for people who are buying houses in the middle of all this at record prices. I just can't see how it makes sense but that's just me

    Because getting out of being a renter in this country is an "at all costs" priority. Whatever happens in the next ten years, I would rather be struggling with a mortgage payment than meeting rent.


  • #4763
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    johnnyskeleton wrote: »
    Eoghan O Broin is making the point that this will interefere with supply and demand and artificially increase house prices. When SF are the ones advocating for a freer market and less government intervention in popular causes, something is amiss.

    My prediction for the affordable housing scheme is that they will introduce it, but they will make it very difficulty to access. They might say that it only applies to houses where the building commenced in or after 2021 for example, or they will insist on the government shared equity being the first charge, thus making it unattractive for banks to lend money.

    My simple solution to all of this is for the government to provide funding directly to builders to build new houses and have a profit sharing scheme with them and an undertaking to cover any losses they suffer. That is the best way to increase supply without causing dramatic distortions in the price paid by buyers.


    I get your point. But if developers can build and sell 3 bed semi detached units in the midlands for under €250k (incl. site, VAT, profit margins etc.), that means the c. €100k the state is lending to the purchaser in Dublin is basically a €100k loan to cover the cost of the site i.e. it's a direct subsidy to landowners.

    Maybe such a scheme would make sense in pre-China Hong Kong but there's nothing but fields in Co. Dublin so there's obviously no shortage of land to build on.

    And the only reason a site cost is so expensive in Dublin to begin with is that the state continues to restrict the overall supply of building land through the planning permission process and gave it that value through the granting of planning permission. That same site currently worth c. €100k in Co. Dublin is probably only worth c. €10k (agri. value) without the state granting them this permission i.e. a stamped piece of paper.


  • #4764
    DellyBelly
    Registered Users Posts: 2,844 ✭✭✭DellyBelly


    PropQueries wrote: »

    I think we should start by looking at why the Government thought now was the right time to agree pay rises for the public sector IMO

    I agree although since it includes nurses and other frontline staff I can't see them reversing it. The optics would be awful


  • #4765
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,463 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I get your point. But if developers can build and sell 3 bed semi detached units in the midlands for under €250k (incl. site, VAT, profit margins etc.), that means the c. €100k the state is lending to the purchaser in Dublin is basically a €100k loan to cover the cost of the site i.e. it's a direct subsidy to landowners.

    Maybe such a scheme would make sense in pre-China Hong Kong but there's nothing but fields in Co. Dublin so there's obviously no shortage of land to build on.

    And the only reason a site cost is so expensive in Dublin to begin with is that the state continues to restrict the overall supply of building land through the planning permission process and gave it that value through the granting of planning permission. That same site currently worth c. €100k in Co. Dublin is probably only worth c. €10k (agri. value) without the state granting them this permission i.e. a stamped piece of paper.

    Well a scheme where the government provide funding to build houses in areas that need housing. They could then sell the houses privately and have a profit share and then reinvest in other houses, or undertake to buy them at cost as social houses.

    So for example, between site and building costs if a house in the suburbs of Dublin cost €450k:

    A. They sell it for €500k, developer takes €25k of the profit and the govt takes the other €25.
    B. They sell it for €450k. No profit, but you took a gamble and broke even, no harm done.
    C. They can't sell it for €450k, so the govt buys it as social housing.

    However bad all of the above sounds, it's no worse than the current system where the government subsidises private house building and buys in private developments as social housing, but this way the government has some control over what is built, is likely to see some return on their investment and it also guarantees that houses which might otherwise not be built, will be built.

    They could also provide grants and tax breaks to companies willing to relocate from high demand areas to lower demand areas, maybe fill up a few ghost estates instead of bulldozing them.

    It's a sort of least worst variant on how the government should intervene. Their coctail of interventions to date are just making property prices more expensive. Then again, maybe that is the real reason behind the government interventions - to support the propertied class rather than to actually solve the housing crisis.


  • #4766
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Banks leaving/closing branches.Third bank anounced changes.
    It does not look that economy will recover and there will be bussiness as usual.
    The banks representatives could say what they want but things does not look good.
    Very bad signs.

    I think you will find that this will be happening globally as WFH is on the up why would a large company need so many outlets when it can all be done on line as in buying, selling and working


  • #4767
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,485 ✭✭✭Villa05


    PropQueries wrote: »
    According to the Irish Independent, the Minister for Housing has said that it's only the opposition that are against his affordable housing scheme:

    "Speaking on RTE News at One yesterday, Minister Darragh O’Brien flatly denied there had been a notable level of criticism directed at the scheme, other than from the usual suspects. “There hasn’t actually been a lot of criticism, there has been some predictable criticism from the political side – the opposition,”

    The article goes on to say:

    "To date, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), the Central Bank, the Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers (IPAV), and a former secretary-general of the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DPER) have all criticised the Government’s proposed shared equity scheme."

    Link to article in Irish Independent today: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/government-ploughing-on-with-affordable-homes-scheme-despite-what-experts-say-40151749.html


    Here is the Construction industry federations take on the scheme, judging by the interview it is guarenteed that the scheme will lead to price appreciation based on his supply predictions for the coming years


  • #4768
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,485 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Regular source of dispute here:

    David McWilliams talks through why he believes that we need 50,000 units built per year in the last 12 minutes of this podcast: How Ireland really works


  • #4769
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    johnnyskeleton wrote: »
    Well a scheme where the government provide funding to build houses in areas that need housing. They could then sell the houses privately and have a profit share and then reinvest in other houses, or undertake to buy them at cost as social houses.

    So for example, between site and building costs if a house in the suburbs of Dublin cost €450k:

    A. They sell it for €500k, developer takes €25k of the profit and the govt takes the other €25.
    B. They sell it for €450k. No profit, but you took a gamble and broke even, no harm done.
    C. They can't sell it for €450k, so the govt buys it as social housing.

    However bad all of the above sounds, it's no worse than the current system where the government subsidises private house building and buys in private developments as social housing, but this way the government has some control over what is built, is likely to see some return on their investment and it also guarantees that houses which might otherwise not be built, will be built.

    They could also provide grants and tax breaks to companies willing to relocate from high demand areas to lower demand areas, maybe fill up a few ghost estates instead of bulldozing them.

    It's a sort of least worst variant on how the government should intervene. Their coctail of interventions to date are just making property prices more expensive. Then again, maybe that is the real reason behind the government interventions - to support the propertied class rather than to actually solve the housing crisis.


    But that's the thing. Cairn Homes average selling price last year was c. €350k and Glenveagh's average selling prince was c. €311k. And that included site costs, VAT, profit margins etc. etc.

    Many new builds in the midlands are currently asking under c. €250k and last year in Co. Waterford they were selling two bed a-rated terraced units for c. €160k.

    I don't understand where people pull figures of €500k, €450k or €400k that developers need to break even. Cairn Homes and Glenveagh are not just breaking even, but making decent profits by building and selling their new build units in and around Co. Dublin for an average of under €350k at the moment.


  • #4770
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    But that's the thing. Cairn Homes average selling price last year was c. €350k and Glenveagh's average selling prince was c. €311k. And that included site costs, VAT, profit margins etc. etc.

    Many new builds in the midlands are currently asking under c. €250k and last year in Co. Waterford they were selling two bed a-rated terraced units for c. €160k.

    I don't understand where people pull figures of €500k, €450k or €400k that developers need to break even. Cairn Homes and Glenveagh are not just breaking even, but making decent profits by building and selling their new build units in and around Co. Dublin for an average of under €350k at the moment.

    If this is the case why isn't the government using them? Is there anything out there that would stop them from using these companies?


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  • #4771
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    fliball123 wrote: »
    If this is the case why isn't the government using them? Is there anything out there that would stop them from using these companies?


    That's not "if this is the case". That's in their actual 2020 reports to their investors :)


This discussion has been closed.
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