Climate Change - General Discussion : Read the Mod Note in post #1 before posting

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2018 8:21pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

No running away warming, but isn't warming still warming at the end of the day? Is the rate of warming of greater interest/concern than the overall trend that indicates a steady and unrelenting warming? Genuine question.

Yes, warming is warming, but the rate of warming is the primary area of concern and the one that gets quoted the most. Quotes such as:

“In the last 30 years we’ve really moved into exceptional territory,” Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said. “It’s unprecedented in 1,000 years. There’s no period that has the trend seen in the 20th century in terms of the inclination (of temperatures).”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/30/nasa-climate-change-warning-earth-temperature-warming

ABC101 · 12-01-2018 9:07pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Yes, warming is warming, but the rate of warming is the primary area of concern and the one that gets quoted the most. Quotes such as:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/30/nasa-climate-change-warning-earth-temperature-warming

Well, just one observation I have to offer. Is there not a phenomenon of Latent Heat of Vaporisation?

Take 1 lt of water, heat it to 100 degrees by adding heat. Despite continuing to add more heat, the temperature does not increase, until all the water is converted to steam. After this point is reached, the addition of more heat will raise the temperature.

So I wonder... could the same phenomenon be happening with Planet Earth. Heat is being added all the time, but temperature is not raising much.

There are reports of ice melting at the N.Pole, Greenland ice sheets receding, Swiss glaciers and so on, not sure what is going on in Argentina etc

So IMO.... we do require to be careful, that just because the temperature is not rising much (or not as fast as one would expect) it could be because there is this phenomenon at work?

Gaoth Laidir · 13-01-2018 12:58pm

ABC101 wrote: »

Well, just one observation I have to offer. Is there not a phenomenon of Latent Heat of Vaporisation?

Take 1 lt of water, heat it to 100 degrees by adding heat. Despite continuing to add more heat, the temperature does not increase, until all the water is converted to steam. After this point is reached, the addition of more heat will raise the temperature.

So I wonder... could the same phenomenon be happening with Planet Earth. Heat is being added all the time, but temperature is not raising much.

There are reports of ice melting at the N.Pole, Greenland ice sheets receding, Swiss glaciers and so on, not sure what is going on in Argentina etc

So IMO.... we do require to be careful, that just because the temperature is not rising much (or not as fast as one would expect) it could be because there is this phenomenon at work?

Water has a very high heat capacity so a lot of energy goes into raising its temperature. As such it can act as a heat sink and store excess heat, like what you say. This is a known factor in the global climate energy budget.

As water warms it releases stored CO2, just like a bottle of coke loses its CO2 as it goes flat over time. This leads to a positive feedback, with temperature further increasing, releasing more CO2, and so on.

It's been modelled over and over but the atmospheric response in the form of global atmospheric temperatures doesn't seem to be keeping pace with the less pessimistic forecasts (RPC4.5).

M.T. Cranium · 14-01-2018 5:07am

I wasn't just making up facts when I said that in the U.S., a lot of operational mets are at least mildly skeptical, I think this is an accepted fact in American weather circles, certainly not something I made up. I've noticed it myself, the people posting give enough information that you can tell who they are in the real world and the non-pro weather enthusiast members know who they are too, their local TV mets.

Most of them think this is over-hyped.

I never meant to imply that there is no warming, I just don't think the warming is even half down to human activity or presence, there could very plausibly be natural warming going on, let's face it, the chances are at least one in three if you accept that the three most likely signals at random are warming, cooling or steady-state.

Natural warming would be expected given the long interval of steady high-solar activity cycles from the 1917 peak to the 2001 peak. The period 1947 to 1989 had almost nothing but higher than normal peaks of solar activity. It correlates very well with temperature trends. The same thing happened after the Maunder minimum, with several quite active cycles in the 18th century and temperatures rose almost as high then as they are now.

The word "disingenuous" implies a deliberate distortion of facts. I am not the one doing that. I am quite sure that the 97-3 ratio is contrived and based on poorly worded survey questions combined with peer pressure. But whatever the real ratio is, we should be more concerned with the facts of this important subject. And the facts are that we simply cannot easily separate out human and natural factors in observed climate change. There are also problems with data sets, one reason why the public distrusts the "science" is that their experience is not ever-increasing warming, they think back to warmer years in the past and find the years offered up as "warmest yet" as rather average. For example, there has only been one reasonably warm summer in Britain and Ireland since the very hot ones in 2003 and 2006 (namely 2013), most of the rest have been very average by any standard. Even somebody teleported forward from the Maunder would have found 2016 or 2017 bog standard.

I guess the problem is that two groups start out with wildly different political assumptions and are willing to see the same set of evidence in two very different ways. To my mind, it would be more productive to reach a compromise, say what most would accept (recent warming may be up to half human caused and is not quite the apocalypse that some would have us believe), and then design a response if in fact a response is necessary.

And in all this back and forth, very little has been said about the fact that the southern hemisphere is not warming in higher latitudes there, in fact the evidence seems to suggest a slight cooling trend and expansion of sea ice. As 80% of the potential problems of sea level rises are related to that hemisphere, much of the discussion seems to be disproportionately focused on Greenland. The data from Greenland are not as disturbing as some seem to portray them. And sea levels have only risen incrementally since 1950.

I am wondering if the climate change lobby will define any outcomes that would cause them to rethink their position. We skeptics are always being challenged to rethink based on "the facts" which turn out to be their opinions. But what about some facts between now and 2025, what if there is no further warming even in the data sets they have designed? What if there's even a bit of cooling? Why should we recant our position when the actual data seem to support our point of view more than theirs? How many of their forecasts from 1990 to 2005 have materialized? No ice left in the north, an end to winter as we knew it, constant heat and drought (when they realized that was not happening it turned into more extremes, a very disingenuous concept in itself, because it is so easily serviceable with the help of a willing media partner, but is it true? As I showed with some fairly significant statistics, not true, almost false, at best a draw (same now as ever)... if there was ever a period of weather extremes it was the 19th century which was generally a cold period and untouched so we are led to believe by the hand of mankind). So which is it, warming causes more disruption, or cooling? You be the judge.

I will finish by saying this -- I have met persons who are presented as eminent climate experts and they are nothing of the sort, some of the non-professionals from politics, the media or other sciences know zero about climate, they are in this for the political benefits. And as for the professionals who are at the heart of this movement, I think some of them are sincere enough but I am not impressed with their body of work. Of course that cuts both ways. I wish there would be real "climate justice" to borrow their phrase, because it might be a lot different from what they imagine. But it seems odd, don't you think, that so many weather enthusiasts are skeptics. Why would that be, if the science was as sound as claimed? Would there be a lot of evolution sketpics on a biology forum? Probably not, and that's because evolution, while perhaps controversial too, is a well researched and documented science. You have to be very, very determined to hold a contrary position there. But climate science is almost junk science, and a lot of intelligent people know this. I am always surprised to find that people who are moderately left-wing in many of their other positions are drawn to the skeptical position. This is by no means some backwater of the alt-right, as the climate change people try to insinuate at times. And I think if there were less peer pressure, more people in the mainstream would openly rebel. This "science" didn't jump the fence, the horse missed and a lot of people know this. Time for politics and the media to catch on and demand accountability.

piuswal · 14-01-2018 5:38am

I've only just come on this thread and read the last post by M T Cranium, so I have a lot to catch up on.

In the meantime could I ask on what evidence is the statement,

"But it seems odd, don't you think, that so many weather enthusiasts are skeptics."

based?

Akrasia · 14-01-2018 2:04pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Water has a very high heat capacity so a lot of energy goes into raising its temperature. As such it can act as a heat sink and store excess heat, like what you say. This is a known factor in the global climate energy budget.

It is known, but widely overlooked when the vast majority of people refer almost exclusively to atmospheric heat content and talk of the 'pause' and 'hiatus' demonstrate this well. All the talk of global temperatures not rising completely ignored the rise in ocean heat content, and as you yourself say below, warmer water can hold less co2 so rising ocean temperatures now could just be a stop gap before we see a large increase in the rate of atmospheric warming.

As water warms it releases stored CO2, just like a bottle of coke loses its CO2 as it goes flat over time. This leads to a positive feedback, with temperature further increasing, releasing more CO2, and so on.

It's been modelled over and over but the atmospheric response in the form of global atmospheric temperatures doesn't seem to be keeping pace with the less pessimistic forecasts (RPC4.5).

Again, at this point, the RCP 4.5 scenario is barely distinguishable from RCP 8.5, they start to diverge in the middle of the next decade so your claims that we're on track for an optimistic outcome is a bit disingenuous.

And regarding the accuracy of the models, there have always been uncertainties so the models are never expected to be 100% accurate, but when the various models are analysed carefully with observed measurements of both land and ocean heat content, they have proven to be pretty accurate over all. [img]https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Screen-Shot-2017-10-05-at-16.49.21.png[/mg] The observed temperature increases have been slightly lower than the predictions in AR5 but the differences can be accounted for by elements that were not modeled like the declining solar output and a number of small volcanic eruptions. There are lots of potential positive feedbacks that are not included in the climate models at all, and there is cause for concern over historical evidence showing that climate shifts can happen over the course of a few decades once a tipping point is reached. While these are by no means certain, and there is an awful lot of debate about how likely this is, these are relatively low probability High impact events and it would be very irresponsible to ignore the risk on the basis of optimism rather than a proper analysis of the dangers.[/img]https://www.skepticalscience.com/how-well-have-models-predicted-gw.html

We need to support the scientific community to improve their modelling. They require resources to allow them to increase the resolution of their modelling systems, and to include things like ice sheet collapse, better precipitation models, better cloud models etc
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf

Gaoth Laidir · 14-01-2018 2:47pm

Akrasia wrote: »

It is known, but widely overlooked when the vast majority of people refer almost exclusively to atmospheric heat content and talk of the 'pause' and 'hiatus' demonstrate this well. All the talk of global temperatures not rising completely ignored the rise in ocean heat content, and as you yourself say below, warmer water can hold less co2 so rising ocean temperatures now could just be a stop gap before we see a large increase in the rate of atmospheric warming.

Again, at this point, the RCP 4.5 scenario is barely distinguishable from RCP 8.5, they start to diverge in the middle of the next decade so your claims that we're on track for an optimistic outcome is a bit disingenuous.

Whatever, 4.5, 8.5, the fact is that observations are running on the low end of all RCPs, which makes the likelihood of them recovering to follow 8.5 even lower.

And regarding the accuracy of the models, there have always been uncertainties so the models are never expected to be 100% accurate, but when the various models are analysed carefully with observed measurements of both land and ocean heat content, they have proven to be pretty accurate over all.
The observed temperature increases have been slightly lower than the predictions in AR5 but the differences can be accounted for by elements that were not modeled like the declining solar output and a number of small volcanic eruptions.

Exactly. And these elements are likely to continue into the future, which is why I made the point a while back that the temperature is likely to show a flatter rising trend than the projections that disregard these elements. This is happening for now anyway. These elements never get a mention in general discussion of warming, which invariably only focuses on the positive feedbacks.

There are lots of potential positive feedbacks that are not included in the climate models at all, and there is cause for concern over historical evidence showing that climate shifts can happen over the course of a few decades once a tipping point is reached. While these are by no means certain, and there is an awful lot of debate about how likely this is, these are relatively low probability High impact events and it would be very irresponsible to ignore the risk on the basis of optimism rather than a proper analysis of the dangers.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/how-well-have-models-predicted-gw.html

We need to support the scientific community to improve their modelling. They require resources to allow them to increase the resolution of their modelling systems, and to include things like ice sheet collapse, better precipitation models, better cloud models etc
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL.pdf

There are way more pressing issues in the world that need tending to.

dense · 15-01-2018 11:09am

Roger_007 wrote: »

I am no expert on climate but I often worry about the claims that 97% of climate scientists are of one mind on the subject. Some of these people have made silly predictions in the past which have proved very wide of the mark.
Example: article published in 2007, which made big headlines at the time, predicting that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by 2013.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

There was also the prime minister of the Maldives who made a speech to the UN in 2012 that he had been advised by his climate experts that the Maldives would be under water in 5 years, i.e. 2017.

None of the above predictions came to pass but I assume those scaremongers responsible for those predictions are part of the 97%. This is what worries me.

I think Manhattan was supposed to have been under 20 feet of water by now too.

And the Olympics are to be held in cyberspace in 2030 because it's too hot.

http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/globalcitizenship/environment/productdesign/climatefutures.html

Sensitivity to co2 has been clearly exaggerated by eco activist political scientists banging the UN political drum at the UN funded and created IPCC.

dense · 16-01-2018 11:42pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The word "disingenuous" implies a deliberate distortion of facts.

I am not the one doing that. I am quite sure that the 97-3 ratio is contrived and based on poorly worded survey questions combined with peer pressure.

It is contrived.

Cook et al, in a remarkable contribution to modern climate science, and reviewed by their peers, openly cooked the books.

http://use-due-diligence-on-climate.org/home/climate-change/the-97-con-sensus/

If science relies on this level of open contrivance to demonstrate it's understanding of climate change, it's claimed understanding of the science of climate change leaves a lot to be desired.

But it also begs the question as to why this particular field of science feels it so necessary and so acceptable to openly contrive these constructs.

This brings the bona fides and the motivation of anyone still advocating this 97:3 ratio into question.

Let's not forget that this whole area has been mired in a lot of dubious "science".

Someone else mentioned the highly fictional but effective hockey stick chart "which has been hung out to dry" earlier, but let's not forget the climategate affairs either and the routine creation of and retrospective adjustment of data, based on hitherto unnoticed "calibration errors" etc.

These embarrasments are all strenuously defended by advocates who then expect to be taken credibly on other aspects of the science.

It isn't working terribly well if public attitudes are to be believed, where worrying about climate change consistently comes in at the bottom of global surveys:

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/image99.png

Or corporate attitudes, in spite of the "our green credentials" commitments carefully bolted on to every corporate web page to please policy makers.

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/jan/20/global-warming-business-risks-government-regulation-taxes

The science of climate change needs to stand back and take stock of itself and start taking some responsibility for the sheer lack of interest in its endeavours.

dense · 18-01-2018 11:17am

Akrasia wrote: »

All the talk of global temperatures not rising completely ignored the rise in ocean heat content, and as you yourself say below, warmer water can hold less co2 so rising ocean temperatures now could just be a stop gap before we see a large increase in the rate of atmospheric warming.

The sea is hiding the heat has taken a bit of battering lately.

So what "rise in ocean heat content" is being claimed?

The whopping big 0.1° rise over 50 years mentioned at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography the other day, in connection with a new study it's promoting?

“Our precision is about 0.2 ºC (0.4 ºF) now, and the warming of the past 50 years is only about 0.1 ºC,” he said, adding that advanced equipment can provide more precise measurements, allowing scientists to use this technique to track the current warming trend in the world’s oceans.

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-study-identifies-thermometer-past-global-ocean

Or the big fat zero degree rise in ocean temperatures NASA was touting a few years ago?

NEWS | OCTOBER 6, 2014
NASA Study Finds Earth's Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4321

Seven years earlier and it was saying the oceans had warmed, then cooled then warmed, you get the picture:

Update as of 5/30/07: Recent analyses have revealed that results from some of the ocean float and shipboard sensor data used in this study were incorrect.

As a result, the study's conclusion that the oceans cooled between 2003 and 2005 can not be substantiated at this time.

The study authors are currently working to correct* these data errors and recompute ocean temperature changes.

*;)

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=1181

Or was the much required "rise" in ocean temperatures created by simply adjusting the figures, conveniently jolting the oceans into "remembering" that they are storing all this lost heat?

This accrued heat is "really the memory of past climate change," said Kevin Trenberth, the head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and co-author of a new paper on ocean warming.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03102017/infographic-ocean-heat-powerful-climate-change-evidence-global-warming

Circular reasoning at it's best, employed to best effect when all else fails.

There is no plausible evidence of a rise in global ocean temperatures consistent with any catastrophic anthropgenically induced climate change theory.

Funny how the claimed authoritative settled science of climate change is built on the constantly shifting sands of contradictory scientific research.

gabeeg · 18-01-2018 4:50pm

Well you'll be delighted to hear that those mad fools at NASA have declared 2017 the second hottest year ever, after 2016.

But sure what have NASA ever done? Bunch of jokers

Longing · 18-01-2018 5:43pm

Tony Heller. In this video he discusses the fundamental deception behind the global warming.

dense · 18-01-2018 6:30pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Well you'll be delighted to hear that those mad fools at NASA have declared 2017 the second hottest year ever, after 2016.

But sure what have NASA ever done? Bunch of jokers

Ever?? I doubt they've made such a claim tbh.

It seems like a pretty wild claim.

But hey, yes, maybe they're playing a joke with their readers, or maybe they're playing with words, using loose language to try to make a point.

If accuracy was important to them, then they surely would not have said "ever" but, "since records began".

Because, there's quite a difference in the two, a difference that may not be apparent to some of their readers.

gabeeg · 18-01-2018 9:31pm

See, I happen to think that accuracy is important to Nasa.
But then I also believe in the moon landings.

It was likely my omission. Sorry.

piuswal · 18-01-2018 11:13pm

What do you think of this;

https://www.facebook.com/climatecentral/videos/1551677264919326/?hc_ref=ARSN12y6j75LrYbuSE6ZOlHEx3R_SIQfBKGRpRFfbJxJU6oCI-5dN9EvEBQKVDgKoP4

dense · 19-01-2018 1:53am

piuswal wrote: »

What do you think of this;

https://www.facebook.com/climatecentral/videos/1551677264919326/?hc_ref=ARSN12y6j75LrYbuSE6ZOlHEx3R_SIQfBKGRpRFfbJxJU6oCI-5dN9EvEBQKVDgKoP4

Not much to be honest. Here's why:

The title mentions 97% of climate scientists.

It shouldn't mean anything to anyone actually, because no one has ever surveyed 100% of climate scientists.

Therefore no one can claim to have elicited the opinion of 97% of them.

If one accepts the above, and one must, one must then also reject the "9 out of ten cats prefer Whiskas" type false construct of "97% of climate scientists" which is deliberately designed to appeal to those who lack the ability to critically analyse such porous claims.

I'll just leave this here:

dense · 19-01-2018 6:47pm

gabeeg wrote: »

See, I happen to think that accuracy is important to Nasa.
But then I also believe in the moon landings.

It was likely my omission. Sorry.

Not a problem

Quick question to the floor, anyone want to estimate how much of the earth has no temperature data being recorded?

The grey parts on these official graphics?

Or precipitation data

Any guesses?

Considering the inherent difficulties in trying to ascertain the ocean temperatures, and acknowledging the Scripps report which I linked to earlier, which stated a 0.1°c rise in ocean temperatures over the past fifty years (compared to NASA's previous 0% rise), the sheer lack of global data on temperatures and precipitation must be taken into consideration when discussing global warming or claims of hottest years ever recorded.

dense · 20-01-2018 1:52am

I've had a rather interesting experience online with a high profile Irish environmental blogger (and taken screenshots, for accuracy and posterity).

I posed a couple of basic questions.

I'm still waiting on a reply, so it would be unfair to say exactly what it's about here.

I'll leave it a while yet, because I do appreciate that replies have to be moderated and answers formulated etc.

It's going to be interesting, one way or another!

I'll keep y'all posted in due course.

piuswal · 20-01-2018 3:12am

dense wrote: »

Not much to be honest. Here's why:

The title mentions 97% of climate scientists.

It shouldn't mean anything to anyone actually, because no one has ever surveyed 100% of climate scientists.

Therefore no one can claim to have elicited the opinion of 97% of them.

If one accepts the above, and one must, one must then also reject the "9 out of ten cats prefer Whiskas" type false construct of "97% of climate scientists" which is deliberately designed to appeal to those who lack the ability to critically analyse such porous claims.

I'll just leave this here:

Interesting that you only deal with the 97% claim! What are your views on their conclusions regarding the 38 papers they examined?

Would it be unfair to claim that you were selective in your comments, ignoring the points that would seem to be contrary to your case?

M.T. Cranium · 20-01-2018 4:23am

piuswal wrote: »

I've only just come on this thread and read the last post by M T Cranium, so I have a lot to catch up on.

In the meantime could I ask on what evidence is the statement,

"But it seems odd, don't you think, that so many weather enthusiasts are skeptics."

based?

It's no secret that I am quite active on a number of weather forums, to name just three, this one, Net-weather, and American Weather.

I have read countless discussions of this same subject and can say that this thread is more easily predictable than the weather, each viewpoint here is one that I've heard many times before.

So my evidence for the statement made about "many weather enthusiasts are skeptics" is based on all of this interaction with many of them over a number of similar threads to this one.

However, as I am concerned with accuracy of statements, I would amend to say that a considerable number, which I believe to be more than half, of weather enthusiasts are skeptics, and by skeptics, I take the least strident definition which would be those who do not accept that (a) human activity is the main component of any postulated climate change, or (b) that extreme weather events are increasing, whether as a result of human activity or not.

We have to be aware that this is not an either-or debate. There are three camps in this controversy, one which holds that climate change is a serious problem caused by human activity, a second one that holds that human activity may be part of climate change but not any greater than half responsible, and a third camp which maintains that there is no human contribution to climate change (and a sub-set of that group claim there is no climate change).

This is why the 97:3 claim is misleading, because it is not properly linked to this three-option debate, it assumes a two-option debate like flat earth or curved spherical earth,

Anyway, for the time being, we have the freedom to debate this issue. There are various other issues where debate has been severely curtailed by the application of legal tactics. I fear for the future of free inquiry if this issue gets handled that same way (it may be different from country to country on these issues).

If you polled weather enthusiasts about their opinions on this subject, I think they would scatter all over that spectrum I described, it's not as simple as saying almost all weather enthusiasts are dead set opposed to the scientific consensus, but I am certain that the opposite position is not true either.

This is an interesting thought experiment that I would challenge any fair-minded person to take. Look at the weather map for 8 Dec 1886. Read the accounts of what happened on that date. Ask yourself what caused this weather event, and what would be said today if the exact same weather event happened yesterday. Or familiarize yourself with the topic of the 1936 heat waves in North America, read over the details, look at the weather charts. Once again, ask yourself what would happen today (or in six months, it can't happen today).

Now as I was reading about the 1936 heat wave, I noticed a statement in the wikipedia account which implied that many records set in 1936 were broken in 2012. Yet for locations that had records in 1936, I can't find any examples. Yes it was quite hot in 2012, but not as hot as in 1936. But somebody was clearly either consciously or subconsciously trying to square the article with a body of opinion that all previous extremes are being blown away by recent events. It would be interesting to see if anyone can substantiate any case where an all-time station or state temperature record set in 1936 (and there are many) was broken in 2012. Of course some daily records were broken in 2012. This is not the point that the article was making, a casual reader would come away thinking, wow, it must have been incredibly hot in 2012 if it was warmer than those numbers. And that would be a false conclusion.

This is the sort of thing that weather enthusiasts notice, who else would?

M.T. Cranium · 20-01-2018 4:50am

There is also a related question of exposure of populations to climate stress, where it's not the climate stress that is changing but the amount of exposure to the stress.

For example, the "exurban" lifestyle is very appealing in western North America and I would imagine in Australia and other places subject to forest fires. Large numbers of people now live in areas that were formerly sparsely populated, and a preferred setting is "parkland" meaning wide open spaces that have some of the former forest cover still maintained.

In recent years it has become increasingly obvious that these are high-risk fire zones. When fires that burn in large tracts of forest come up to the boundaries of these exurban zones, they find an ideal environment for rapid spread. Strong winds are likely to develop both because of the fires and because many of these exurban zones are built on scenic ridges for the view.

Thus it may be easy for some to conclude that forest fires are getting worse in a changing climate. What is closer to the truth is that human penetration of fire zones is increasing, and by the very nature of how we settle along these interface zones, we are exacerbating the problem.

It's another area where perhaps the first conclusion is not the right one, but just the easiest or most convenient one.

dense · 21-01-2018 2:52am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

There is also a related question of exposure of populations to climate stress, where it's not the climate stress that is changing but the amount of exposure to the stress.

For example, the "exurban" lifestyle is very appealing in western North America and I would imagine in Australia and other places subject to forest fires. Large numbers of people now live in areas that were formerly sparsely populated, and a preferred setting is "parkland" meaning wide open spaces that have some of the former forest cover still maintained.

In recent years it has become increasingly obvious that these are high-risk fire zones. When fires that burn in large tracts of forest come up to the boundaries of these exurban zones, they find an ideal environment for rapid spread. Strong winds are likely to develop both because of the fires and because many of these exurban zones are built on scenic ridges for the view.

Thus it may be easy for some to conclude that forest fires are getting worse in a changing climate. What is closer to the truth is that human penetration of fire zones is increasing, and by the very nature of how we settle along these interface zones, we are exacerbating the problem.

It's another area where perhaps the first conclusion is not the right one, but just the easiest or most convenient one.

Correct.

Ask anyone if they think global warming is responsible for more wild fires and they'll invariably say yes, because they have been conditioned to believe that fires are now out of control because of global warming and it is getting worse.

The global reality however is the opposite.

NASA tells us that trends are going in the opposite direction, downwards.

Anyone claiming that wildfires are more damaging than ever before because of global warming needs to be checked.

Researchers Detect a Global Drop in Fires
June 30, 2017

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=90493

I'm not sure what NASA is playing at, first claiming that there's been no rise in ocean temperatures, then claiming that theres been a reduction in global fires.

It's a similar story with hurricanes and tropical storms, with no increasing trend evident.

Akrasia · 22-01-2018 4:40pm

MT,

Can I just ask you about your interpretation of the underlying physics behind global warming?

While there is uncertainty about climate sensitivity, (within a likely range of outcomes between 2 degrees nd 4.5 degrees for a doubling of atmospheric CO2) this is entirely because of uncertainty surrounding climate feedbacks, the radiative forcing attached to human emissions of greenhouse gasses is not uncertain at all, it is extremely well understood.

There's a great lecture posted on Youtube from Oxford university that explains the basic physics underlying the radiative forcing and why we are certain that it is anthoprogenic.

dense · 23-01-2018 9:04pm

Akrasia wrote: »

MT,

Can I just ask you about your interpretation of the underlying physics behind global warming?

While there is uncertainty about climate sensitivity, (within a likely range of outcomes between 2 degrees nd 4.5 degrees for a doubling of atmospheric CO2) this is entirely because of uncertainty surrounding climate feedbacks, the radiative forcing attached to human emissions of greenhouse gasses is not uncertain at all, it is extremely well understood.

There's a great lecture posted on Youtube from Oxford university that explains the basic physics underlying the radiative forcing and why we are certain that it is anthoprogenic.

The comments on these videos are informative.
I'm not sure if David usually shares videos that look and sound like they were recorded in someones's basement, but maybe he does!!

Great lecture guys. I've shared it and used it to help debate against climate skeptics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoyS3om7Gr0

Now, Akrasia, I'd like to ask why you've chosen the 2 degrees and 4.5 degrees sensitivity for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, a figure which according to Dana Nucitelli is derived from the following mix of inexact sciences:

There are three main categories of studies estimating climate sensitivity, which are based on:

1) very detailed climate models.
2) combining recent climate measurements with simpler climate models.
3) measurements of past climate changes.

Most studies have been very consistent in estimating that surface temperatures will warm between 2 and 4.5°C (3.6 to 8.1°F) in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, most likely 3°C (5.4°F).

"Most" there, without any citation, should of course read as "some".
But, of course, it is written by Dana, who is not behind the door where telling white lies about figures is concerned, see Cook et al.

(It is no harm for anyone to be aware of Dana's previous peer-reviewed fiddling with numbers.)

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/may/10/climate-change-warming-sensitivity

The problem is that the estimate above is derived from the decades old Charney Report of 1979, and is a figure which the politically motivated scientists who are members of the UN created and funded IPCC are keen to keep to using to this day, as it plays into the catastrophe mantra and is useful for likes of the UN's Mary Robinson's Climate Justice charities whose moral appeals for fund transfers to developing countries depend on a high co2 sensitivity.

The reason that it is a problem is that an accumulating number of contemporary studies and research from independent scientists are showing a much lower sensitivity.

And the reason that is a problem for the UNIPCC should be very obvious.

Recent CO2 Climate Sensitivity Estimates Continue Trending Towards Zero

http://notrickszone.com/2017/10/16/recent-co2-climate-sensitivity-estimates-continue-trending-towards-zero/#sthash.B8s7o2vg.dpbs

75 Papers Find Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity

http://notrickszone.com/50-papers-low-sensitivity/#sthash.wa8FzM6Q.dpbs

If anyone wants to learn just how little is understood about climate science, just take a look at this page on the blog founded by Gavin Schmidt of nasa

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/why-does-the-stratosphere-cool-when-the-troposphere-warms/

Akrasia · 23-01-2018 9:42pm

Dense, I have absolutely zero interest in debating this with you after the train wreck of that after hours thread in which you were ultimately banned for trolling.

The fact that your first instinct is to ignore the science presented by Oxford university because the sound sounds exactly like it would if it was recorded in a lecture theater gives me no reason to believe that you have changed.

I am interested in what the serious posters on this forum think about the underlying physics behind global warming. It seems pretty clear to me, that if we increase radiative forcing by changing the balance of the atmosphere, that this inevitably leads to warming of the biosphere. The underlying fact that AGW is real is hard to argue against from a pure physics perspective.

piuswal · 24-01-2018 2:05am

Just for information:

Scott Pruitt insincerely asked what's Earth's ideal temperature.

Scientists answer

In short, from a practical standpoint, "as little additional warming as possible"

Civilization developed in a stable climate

Texas Tech’s Katharine Hayhoe agreed, noting that human civilization has developed in the relatively stable climate of the past 10,000 years.

There is no one perfect temperature for the earth, but there is for us humans, and that’s the temperature we’ve had over the last few thousands of years when we built our civilization, agriculture, economy, and infrastructure. Global average temperature over the last few millennia has fluctuated by a few tenths of degrees; today, it’s risen by nearly 1°C and counting.
Why do we care? Because we are perfectly adapted to our current conditions. Two-thirds of the world’s largest cities are located within a metre of sea level. What happens when sea level rises a metre or more, as it’s likely to this century? We can’t pick up Shanghai or London or New York and move them. Most of our arable land is already carefully allocated and farmed.

What happens when we can no longer grow the crops we used to, as climate shifts and water becomes more scarce in many subtropical areas? We can’t just take over new land: someone else already owns it. What happens when our water resources diminish or even run out? We can’t take over someone else’s water rights without a war.
We care about a changing climate because it exacerbates the risks we face today, and threatens the resources we depend on for our future.

dense · 24-01-2018 1:01pm

piuswal wrote: »

Just for information:

Scott Pruitt insincerely asked what's Earth's ideal temperature.

Scientists answer

In short, from a practical standpoint, "as little additional warming as possible"

Civilization developed in a stable climate

Texas Tech’s Katharine Hayhoe agreed, noting that human civilization has developed in the relatively stable climate of the past 10,000 years.

There is no one perfect temperature for the earth, but there is for us humans, and that’s the temperature we’ve had over the last few thousands of years when we built our civilization, agriculture, economy, and infrastructure. Global average temperature over the last few millennia has fluctuated by a few tenths of degrees; today, it’s risen by nearly 1°C and counting.
Why do we care? Because we are perfectly adapted to our current conditions. Two-thirds of the world’s largest cities are located within a metre of sea level. What happens when sea level rises a metre or more, as it’s likely to this century? We can’t pick up Shanghai or London or New York and move them. Most of our arable land is already carefully allocated and farmed.

What happens when we can no longer grow the crops we used to, as climate shifts and water becomes more scarce in many subtropical areas? We can’t just take over new land: someone else already owns it. What happens when our water resources diminish or even run out? We can’t take over someone else’s water rights without a war.
We care about a changing climate because it exacerbates the risks we face today, and threatens the resources we depend on for our future.

Why is Katherine Hayhoe talking about picking up Shanghai or London or New York and moving them?

Better question maybe is, who is Katherine Hayhoe and why in Ireland are we listening to her talking about moving cities when there is no evidence of accelerating sea rises or sea temperatures in spite of co2 rising from 280ppm to over 400ppm?

Nor is there evidence of wildfires getting out of control.

What about all the supposed heat?

Where on the planet are the temperature records coming from, given that there is no data for the grey areas on the map?

f

And if global climate catastrophe is just around the corner, why is the UN predicting better than ever life expectancy rates?

Why are some Americans, who have actually been told by NASA that NASA has added half a degree to the 20th century US temperature by adjusting the record, trying to promote global catastrophe on the back of it when there is no evidence of it?

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/faq/

Because Katherine Hayhoe is a Christian scientist, an evangelical who believes that God created the earth:

Katharine Hayhoe: God’s Creation Is Running a Fever

https://www.guernicamag.com/gods-creation-is-running-a-fever/

Repent. Repent...

And we're all so "down with that kind of thing" here, aren't we????

The answer is in the amount of "we"s in the statements you've posted, considering that "we" have been told that we in the NH will be least affected by "climate change" as opposed to those in the SH.

It is of course why Ms. Robinson of "Climate Justice" and Ms. Figueres of the UN openly advocate for a collapse of the economic system that has prevailed for the last 150 years in favour of a new global world order of a transfer of wealth from the richer nations of the NH to the less fortunate in the SH in order that we may mitigate against climate change for them by us building them new cities and villages running on solar power.

http://www.unric.org/en/latest-un-buzz/29623-figueres-first-time-the-world-economy-is-transformed-intentionally

That is also the experimental socialist dream of local eco activists who conveniently forget that Ireland in spite of having the awfully embarrasing title of being Europes third highest emitter per capita, yet whose contribution to or ability to avert "climate change" is so negligible it can't be measured, is, according to the OECD, in it's last 4 year review published in 2016, an example in focusing development aid on neediest countries.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/ireland-is-a-world-leader-in-foreign-aid-to-countries-most-in-need-1.2021843

Apparently, it is not enough, and they will only be sated when the UN brotherhood of man full socialist agenda is forcefully implemented here.

I say forcefully, because if anyone questions the "science" behind all of it or asks about the gaps in the circular reasoning they're branded as a "denier", and "deniers" (reminds me of Holocaust for some reason....) need to silenced, for the good of the planet.

And only scientists that are toeing the UNIPCC line are to be listened to, respected, encouraged and supported in their sainted endeavours.

What is made of Ray Bates here I'd love to know. Needs to be silenced too probably.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/warning-of-over-alarmist-stance-on-climate-risk-1.1792370
https://cliscep.com/2016/05/12/new-paper-on-climate-sensitivity-supports-low-%E2%89%881c-estimates/
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015EA000154/full

Actually, I already know...given that Ireland's environmental policy looks like it's being single handedly steered by a lead author of the UNIPCC, a retired geography professor, who isn't Ray Bates.

It is of course just my opinion, one that I am entitled to hold and one that appears to me to make the most sense of everything, given the amount of tripe the UNIPCCWMO, NASA and NOAA, the UK Met office, and the climategate affairs and others have put in front of me.

Gaoth Laidir · 24-01-2018 5:35pm

dense wrote: »

And only scientists that are toeing the UNIPCC line are to be listened to, respected, encouraged and supported in their sainted endeavours.

What is made of Ray Bates here I'd love to know. Needs to be silenced too probably.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/warning-of-over-alarmist-stance-on-climate-risk-1.1792370
https://cliscep.com/2016/05/12/new-paper-on-climate-sensitivity-supports-low-%E2%89%881c-estimates/
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015EA000154/full

Actually, I already know...given that Ireland's environmental policy looks like it's being single handedly steered by a lead author of the UNIPCC, a retired geography professor, who isn't Ray Bates.

Good luck with that. Look a few months back and you'll see that the Bates paper was ignored here and instead a character-assassination took place. One or two current posters refused to discuss his findings.

Akrasia · 24-01-2018 11:44pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Good luck with that. Look a few months back and you'll see that the Bates paper was ignored here and instead a character-assassination took place. One or two current posters refused to discuss his findings.

I don't know if you're referring to me, but i did put forward criticisms of his '2 zone energy model' He bases his model on a Lindzen and Choi paper which has been shown to have severe methodological issues.

Gaoth Ladir, I'd be interested in your views on the basic physics of climate change. Do you not believe the figures for the radiative forcing given in the lecture I linked to above (i appreciate it's an hour long, but most of that is covered at the start)

dense · 24-01-2018 11:47pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Good luck with that. Look a few months back and you'll see that the Bates paper was ignored here and instead a character-assassination took place. One or two current posters refused to discuss his findings.

I'm not surprised in the slightest tbh.

He was probably accused of being in the pay of "big oil" too.

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