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Climate Change - General Discussion : Read the Mod Note in post #1 before posting

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Comments

  • #1292
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Akrasia wrote: »
    On average global SST anomaly is still well above average, so those cool parts are dominated by hot parts elsewhere

    Here's the SST Anomaly map from 08/07/17
    gfs_world-ced_sstanom_1-day.png

    The June Arctic sea ice extent is the 4th lowest on record
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    A new study into ice shelf collapse links it to sea ice loss https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0212-1

    An interesting SST map there, which seems to suggest that SST values may not have so much of an effect on broadscale weather patterns, but that weather patterns have an influence on SST values themselves:

    8aDxIUj.png

    New Moon



  • #1293
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,224 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    An interesting SST map there, which seems to suggest that SST values may not have so much of an effect on broadscale weather patterns, but that weather patterns have an influence on SST values themselves:

    8aDxIUj.png
    I think it's fair to say that they're interlinked


  • #1294
    dense
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,175 ✭✭✭dense


    Here's a paper by retired University of Dhaka Professor Aftab Alam Khan which illustrates the mess surrounding claimed and predicted sea level measurements.

    He claims that 3 mm/yr rise of sea-level due to global warming and polar ice-melt is definitely a conjecture and that predictions of 4–6.6 ft sea level rise in the next 91 years between 2009 and 2100 are highly erroneous.


    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987118300446#!


    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Aftab_Khan20


  • #1295
    dense
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,175 ✭✭✭dense


    Following on from that paper here's what an international team of researchers say about Larsen C collapsing.



    It's terrifying.

    A sea level rise of 42 mega metres by 2300.


    Sorry, sorry, its millimetres, 4.2mm




    Here we apply numerical ice-sheet models of varying complexity to show that the centennial sea-level commitment of Larsen C embayment glaciers following immediate shelf collapse is low ( < 2.5 mm to 2100,  < 4.2 mm to 2300).


    Despite its large size, Larsen C does not provide strong buttressing forces to upstream basins and its collapse does not result in large additional discharge from its tributary glaciers in any of our model scenarios.


    https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/2307/2018/


  • #1296
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,224 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46161280

    Worst wildfire in Californian history currently raging near Malibu. The wildfire season should be over by now.

    2017 was (until now) worst wildfire season on record. Officials now saying California wildfire season is year round.


    Yeah. Gaoth Ladir, nothing to do with climate change.


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  • #1297
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Akrasia wrote: »
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46161280

    Worst wildfire in Californian history currently raging near Malibu. The wildfire season should be over by now.

    2017 was (until now) worst wildfire season on record. Officials now saying California wildfire season is year round.


    Yeah. Gaoth Ladir, nothing to do with climate change.

    Cheap shot there. How do you attribute it to climate change and not to other factors?


  • #1298
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,224 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Cheap shot there. How do you attribute it to climate change and not to other factors?

    Because its unprecedented and consistent with a hotter climate


  • #1299
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users Posts: 9,625 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Because its unprecedented and consistent with a hotter climate

    Hmm.... I think you'll find natural fire suppression and a massive increase in real estate development in such areas is by far a bigger factor


  • #1300
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,224 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Hmm.... I think you'll find natural fire suppression and a massive increase in real estate development in such areas is by far a bigger factor

    I dont think so.

    The firefighters are saying that these fires are on an entirely different level to what they're used to.
    This is not normal. It's a tinderbox. places are burning that were never threatened before.
    This is at least 3 seasons in a row where wildfires in California have been way above normal. Its not just due to recent development or poor forest management.


    but, climate change isn't real. According to the people who think they know better than the worlds experts on climate.


  • #1301
    dense
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,175 ✭✭✭dense


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Because its unprecedented and consistent with a hotter climate


    Nice thoughts, however, actual data from the US National Interagency Coordination Center at NIFC which compiles annual wildland fire statistics for federal and state agencies says the exact opposite.



    Have a look at the early part of the 20th century.



    https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html


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  • #1302
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Akrasia wrote: »
    I dont think so.

    The firefighters are saying that these fires are on an entirely different level to what they're used to.
    This is not normal. It's a tinderbox. places are burning that were never threatened before.
    This is at least 3 seasons in a row where wildfires in California have been way above normal. Its not just due to recent development or poor forest management.


    but, climate change isn't real. According to the people who think they know better than the worlds experts on climate.

    What climatological record has led to these fires? Show us the data and the correlation factor.


  • #1303
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users Posts: 9,625 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Akrasia wrote: »
    I dont think so.

    The firefighters are saying that these fires are on an entirely different level to what they're used to.

    What age is the average firefighter??


  • #1304
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,224 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    What climatological record has led to these fires? Show us the data and the correlation factor.

    This is from 2013
    Infographic-Western-Wildfires-and-Climate-Change-Panel-1-Full-Size.jpg
    Infographic-Western-Wildfires-and-Climate-Change-Panel-2-Full-Size.jpg
    Infographic-Western-Wildfires-and-Climate-Change-Panel-3-Full-Size.jpg
    https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html#.W-fqGLJFBcs
    https://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/Infographic-Western-Wildfires-and-Climate-Change-Methodology-and-Assumptions.pdf


  • #1305
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    And now here are actual observational data for the region in question.

    Temperatures around average for the past several months.
    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?wfo=sto

    Precipitation likewise. The bright green Normal shows pretty much zero precipitation is standard in that area.
    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?p=temperature&year=2018&wfo=sto&stn=KSTO&p=Precipitation

    That's just one station. Several others are selectable from the drop down list.

    The problem with fires is wind. If you can link the current stiff winds with climate change then please go ahead and show us.


  • #1306
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,224 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1061316105308753920


  • #1307
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Akrasia wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1061316105308753920

    So, conflicting reports between him and the NWS station data.


  • #1308
    dense
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,175 ✭✭✭dense


    Akrasia wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1061316105308753920

    Akrasia wrote: »
    Twitter is not a recognised scientific journal.


    Wasn't last week but is today.

    Not matter what spin is being put on this, global warming has coincided with less wildfires globally.
    Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874420/


  • #1309
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,224 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    So, conflicting reports between him and the NWS station data.

    I'm not an expert in Californian weather. This guy is, he's a PhD climate scientist currently working on research in this field in California


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