Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 08-09-2016 7:59am

Thursday, 8 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

Many thanks to DOCARCH for providing forecasts while I enjoyed some time away. DOCARCH sure knew how to warm things up, apparently.

TODAY ... A few brighter intervals this morning but remaining rather cloudy for most, then another spell of generally light rain moving across the country from the southwest in moderate southerly winds, mild and humid, highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT ... Drizzle and fog, mild, lows 11-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain in gusty south to southwest winds, highs 17-20 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm likely in west.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, isolated showers. Highs near 19 or 20 C.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain, 20-40 mm possible, gusty south to southwest winds becoming stronger at times by late in the day, particularly in Connacht and west Ulster (gusts to 90 km/hr possible there, about 70 km/hr for most other places). Highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... Rain clearing east, sunny intervals, winds easing, highs near 20 C.

OUTLOOK ... A brief dry spell with some sunshine around Tuesday lasting into part of Wednesday in north and east, then more rain moving up from the south, temperatures remaining rather warm for mid-September. Following that, more typical autumnal weather setting in with temperatures dropping back to more normal values around the 20th of the month (by then, this means highs 15-17 C).

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and rather cool with light rain at times, highs only around 16 C. But I enjoyed a week of generally sunny and warm weather on my holiday (which was mainly south of here). It remains hot and humid in eastern portions of North America and this now includes the northeast coastal cities now that Hermine has largely dissipated and moved out to sea.

M.T. Cranium · 09-09-2016 6:28am

Friday, 9 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Dry for a few hours this morning in the east, but heavy rain is likely to spread rapidly across the country reaching the east coast by early afternoon, 10-20 mm will fall in most places, and winds will increase to southerly 50-70 km/hr. It will be quite mild and muggy with highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing, winds easing to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows by sunrise will be 5-8 C for most, near 10 C south coast.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, rather cool and breezy at times, isolated showers developing mid-day, amounts of rain expected to average only trace or 1 mm. Highs 15-17 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain will slowly advance on the west coast and there may be some heavy falls in outer coastal regions of Mayo, Galway and Kerry but this heavier rain will only reach other regions by Sunday night. However, scattered outbreaks of much lighter rain could come and go further east, in variable cloudiness and warm, humid and windy conditions, southerly winds of 50-80 km/hr developing in exposed coastal regions, lows 9-12 C and highs 18-20 C.

MONDAY ... The heavy rain will continue to move east but the front will weaken rapidly and winds will ease gradually to southwest 40-60 km/hr. Some sunshine will develop and it may be as warm as 21 C in Leinster, 18 C in most other places.

OUTLOOK ... While some models continue to show a dry mid-week interlude, other guidance is beginning to balk on that outcome, favouring a stalled out frontal zone north-south around the Irish Sea. This might prolong the intermittent rain and keep temperatures a bit lower but expect highs somewhere in the 15-19 C range most of next week. The longer term outlook has improved somewhat with some further warm, dry spells showing up at times well into the second half of the month.

If your travels take you to BRITAIN or FRANCE note that it may be considerably warmer there at times, 24-27 C around Monday-Tuesday.

My local weather improved to mostly sunny by Thursday afternoon, with a rather fresh breeze and highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-09-2016 6:32am

Saturday, 10 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, rather cool and breezy at times, isolated showers developing mid-day, more likely central and north, amounts of rain expected to average only trace to 2 mm. Highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals in east, lows 6-9 C, more cloudy west with lows 9-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain will slowly advance on the west coast and there may be some heavy falls in outer coastal regions of Mayo, Galway and Kerry but this heavier rain will only reach other regions by Sunday night. However, scattered outbreaks of much lighter rain could come and go further east, in variable cloudiness and warm, humid and windy conditions, southerly winds of 50-80 km/hr developing in exposed coastal regions, and highs 18-20 C.

MONDAY ... The heavy rain (eventually 10-20 mm) will continue to move east during the early morning hours and through part of the day, but the front will weaken rapidly and winds will ease gradually to southwest 40-60 km/hr. Some sunshine will develop and it may be as warm as 21 C in Leinster, 18 C in most other places.

TUESDAY ... Outbreaks of rain will probably return from the southeast but parts of the far west may remain dry, although cloudy. Lows 10-13 C and highs 14-17 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will see further falls of rain, light and scattered at first, but possibly quite heavy in west Munster by Thursday (30-50 mm could fall there), as winds turn more to the east. The warmest areas will be north Leinster and east Ulster which will get some of the very warm air covering Britain at this point, although highs will be held to 20-21 C by cloud. Elsewhere it may be closer to the mid-teens. We should caution that details may change, this heavy rainfall situation may shift to other regions closer to the actual time.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for a gradually cooler trend in westerly winds, followed after the weekend of 17th-18th by warmer conditions once again.

In BRITAIN and FRANCE the weather will turn very warm at times next week, with highs 24-27 C.

My local weather on Friday was mostly sunny with a high near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 11-09-2016 6:45am

Sunday, 11 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few outbreaks of light rain near south and west coasts, and isolated showers elsewhere. Winds increasing to southerly 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon and evening. Highs 18-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming heavy at times, slowly advancing from west coast into west-central counties, 15-25 mm possible there. It may remain largely dry near the east coast with the stronger south winds persisting there, but winds will drop off to light southwest as the rain becomes heavy.
Lows 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY ... Heavy rain will continue its slow eastward drift, and may lose some intensity by afternoon; central and then eastern counties will see about 10-15 mm. Slow clearing in the west coast counties by afternoon. Highs about 19 or 20 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, further outbreaks of light rain, becoming more confined to south Leinster. Lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will see pulses of heavier rain moving north and even northwest at times as the stalled out frontal zone tries to push back towards the west. At this point, it now looks as though the heavier rain will begin in the southeast, and will be joined by a second area of rather heavy rain moving up the west coast. Most counties will see 20-30 mm but some isolated falls of 40-50 mm are possible (Wexford and Kerry most at risk with some flooding likely). Temperatures during this wet spell will remain rather steady in the 14-16 C range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for a more westerly and showery regime with temperatures close to normal values (15-17 C).

At this point, Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to become very warm and humid in eastern England and most of France; heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop along a stalled frontal boundary in parts of Wales and southwest England and severe flooding is possible around Thursday in those regions.

Meanwhile, my local weather was partly cloudy with a high near 21 C. The next named Atlantic storm is likely to develop soon east of the Virgin Islands, moving towards Bermuda. This one will be "Ian."

M.T. Cranium · 12-09-2016 7:24am

Monday, 12 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A band of moderate to heavy rain will continue to edge further east all day, lasting about six to nine hours in most places, and dropping 15-30 mm with some local flooding (especially in central counties). The strong southerly winds 40-70 km/hr will become more confined to the eastern counties, highs will average 16 or 17 C, and there may be some brief clearing late in the afternoon in the Atlantic coastal counties.

TONIGHT ... Further rain, but more intermittent, mainly in Leinster where 5 to 15 mm additional may fall, variable cloud further west, lows 8-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain may persist in Leinster and east Ulster, isolated showers elsewhere with some sunny intervals developing in west, highs about 16 C east to 18 C west.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, mild. Lows 10-13 C and highs 18-20 C.

THURSDAY ... At this point, some good news, the heavy rainfall expected for Thursday may hold off to the southeast or even dissipate before reaching Ireland but there could still be some outbreaks of light rain mainly near the south coast, and highs should reach about 17 C. This forecast could change again before the day itself because the frontal system will remain stalled to the south and energy could move towards Ireland from western France, so stay tuned on this.

FRIDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming breezy from southwest, some showers more likely in western counties, rather cool. Highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The model guidance beyond Friday looks generally unsettled, breezy and cool to near normal in temperatures, rather frequent showers seem likely with disturbances rapidly moving across Ireland from the west about every other day. The weekend of 17th-18th looks cool and unsettled but Monday 19th could be quite a warm day (briefly) but very windy in the north.

Over in BRITAIN the rain we are seeing today will not arrive until tonight or Tuesday and then only in parts of Wales and the southwest. It will become very warm in regions further east on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs of about 25-27 C but this warm spell will break down with showers on Thursday and from then on temperatures will generally fall to more seasonable levels.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a high near 20 C. In the central Atlantic, "Ian" is expected to be named any time now and will then move northwest towards Bermuda. At this point the storm is expected to remain rather weak and recurve into the westerlies, remnants may pass near Ireland some time next week.

M.T. Cranium · 13-09-2016 6:24am

Tuesday, 13 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Occasional light rain will persist over parts of Leinster and east Ulster with perhaps 5 mm further accumulation, but there may be some dry intervals too. Elsewhere, mainly dry and the cloud may begin to break at times to allow some sunshine, but also one or two isolated showers could develop. Highs will range from near 16 C east, to 18 C west.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist in some parts of the east, partly cloudy further west. Lows near 8 C west, to 12 C east.

WEDNESDAY ... Rather warm and humid, possible isolated showers or a brief thundershower, cells likely to move north to northwest, and the activity in general will show a westerly drift. Highs 18-20 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers (still watching this situation as some potential remains for heavier rain), lows near 10 C and highs 18-20 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, fresher in southwest to west winds, showers most likely near northwest coasts, highs near 17 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Breezy to windy at times, passing showers and perhaps a longer interval of rain late Saturday into Sunday morning, highs both days near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat cooler than average at times, unsettled, highs generally 14-17 C next week. There could be the occasional warmer day later in the month.

In BRITAIN today, tomorrow and Thursday, very warm especially eastern England where highs could brush 30 C at times, the frontal zone over eastern Ireland will sometimes push into Wales and southwest England with occasional heavy showers or thunderstorms, but it will tend to sweep away to the north eventually rather than heading east, and changes late in the week will be gradual although eventually quite substantial as temperatures will probably not return to the 20s after this weekend except on one or two days late in the month.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and a bit warmer with a high of about 23 C. Tropical Storm Ian continues to move northwest in the central Atlantic and remnants of the storm will be northwest of Ireland by this coming weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 14-09-2016 6:58am

Wednesday, 14 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather warm and humid, outbreaks of showers and isolated thundershowers in the southeast this morning, redeveloping further inland and towards the north-central counties by late in the day. Some other places may remain dry and could see some brief sunny intervals. Highs generally 18-21 C but could reach 23 or 24 in coastal south Leinster. Winds generally light northerly occasionally moderate northeasterly near stronger showers.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, occasional showers, perhaps a brief thunderstorm from Dublin north near the Irish Sea coasts, lows 11-14 C.
Rainfalls by late tonight will be quite variable, mostly 2-5 mm but a few places could see 10-20 mm.

THURSDAY ... Warm and humid with isolated showers and slight risk of a thunderstorm, highs 18-22 C.

FRIDAY ... Becoming fresher in moderate southwest winds 30-50 km/hr, passing showers more frequent near Atlantic coasts, lows 10-13 C and highs about 19 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm. Highs 20-22 C. Moderate south to southwest winds developing, increasing cloud by late afternoon, rain developing on west coast by evening.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain during the morning, windy, turning a bit cooler by afternoon. Lows 11-14 C and highs 17-19 C.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Generally rather unsettled with temperatures close to normal, highs 15-18 C.

BRITAIN will continue to see very warm or even hot conditions today and in some eastern counties also tomorrow, with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over western regions, notably Wales and Lancashire into Cumbria. Some highs of 27-30 C can be expected. In FRANCE it may be as warm as 33 C for the next two days. This warm spell or heat wave will break down on Friday as the core of the heat moves further east.

My local weather has continued very pleasant with more sunshine on Tuesday and highs near 24 C. Tropical Storm Ian continues to move north in the central Atlantic and some of its energy will be involved in the weekend frontal system for Ireland, meanwhile Tropical Storm Julia formed somewhat unexpectedly out of a weak system east of Florida and will move up towards the Carolinas but with much of its circulation over land it cannot strengthen very much beyond a minimal tropical storm. Also, super-typhoon Meranti has hit some outlying islands of the northern Philippines and is now moving past Taiwan's southwest coast towards China but will be steadily weakening later today (it is currently about mid-afternoon in Taiwan). There were some category two conditions near the southern tip of Taiwan but generally the main risk is heavy rainfall with 400 mm of rain likely in many areas. Much of that has already fallen, flooding is likely to be widespread. Once it reaches mainland China the storm will probably be quite diminished in terms of wind speeds, but still a heavy rainfall event.

M.T. Cranium · 15-09-2016 7:34am

Thursday, 15 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather warm and humid, some brighter intervals in east this morning, a few showers developing in west, amounts generally slight (1-3 mm), highs near 18 C west to 22 C east.

TONIGHT ... Patchy light rain will move east followed by partial clearing, a bit cooler with lows 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Becoming fresher in moderate southwest winds 30-50 km/hr, passing showers more frequent near Atlantic coasts, with highs about 19 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm. Lows 7-10 C and highs 18-22 C. Moderate south to southwest winds developing and increasing to 50-70 km/hr possibly higher gusts near Atlantic coasts by late afternoon, increasing cloud by late afternoon, rain developing on west coast by evening.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain during the morning, total rainfalls about 15-20 mm, windy at times (SW veering to NW 40-70 km/hr), turning a bit cooler by afternoon. Lows 11-14 C and highs 17-19 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of rain, highs near 17 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, occasional light to moderate rain about every second or third day and temperatures near normal (15-18 C days, 6-9 C nights).

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and warm with a high of 25 C.

The warm spell or heat wave will come to an end in southern England later today, heavy showers or thunderstorms will move in from the south (it has already turned stormy in France this morning), and after that temperatures in most of Britain will become more similar to those in the forecast above. But a few places (most likely east Midlands and south Yorkshire) will be close to 30 C again today.

M.T. Cranium · 16-09-2016 6:32am

Friday, 16 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy for the south, mostly overcast in the north where a few showers will develop and move across Ulster and parts of Connacht and north Leinster, amounts generally 2-4 mm there. Moderate westerly winds will occasionally gust to 50 km/hr. Highs near 19 C south, 16 C north.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cool. Lows 4-7 C inland, 7-10 C near coasts and larger cities.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals, warm. Highs 18-21 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain in western counties will slowly spread across central regions during the late morning and will reach Leinster during the afternoon. Moderate south to southwest winds will shift to northwest as the rain clears further east. Highs 16-18 C. Rainfalls 5-15 mm.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers or intervals of light rain, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Generally unsettled and changeable with the flow mainly southwest to westerly.

Tropical storm Ian will soon become post-tropical and head towards Iceland and the Faeroes bringing wind gusts to 120 km/hr there on the weekend. Julia continues to meander off the Carolina coast, and new arrival Karl is heading west from the Cape Verde Islands, expected to reach the vicinity of the Virgin Islands about five days from now, and could become a hurricane at some point next week.

My local weather was sunny and very warm on Thursday; the high was 28 C. In eastern North America, it remains very warm and humid, while a strong cold front is pushing east through the central plains states.

M.T. Cranium · 17-09-2016 7:04am

Saturday, 17 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Extensive high cloud but some hazy sunshine will break through at times, rather warm, highs 18-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain reaching Atlantic coasts around midnight will make slow progress further east, 5 mm will fall in western counties. Lows about 7-9 C east, 10-13 C west.

SUNDAY ... The rain will continue to make slow progress east, and part of the morning will remain dry in Leinster and east Ulster, but eventually most places will see about 10 mm of rain lasting about six hours. Highs 16-18 C.

MONDAY ... Clearing by early morning then partly cloudy, cool. Lows 7-9 C and highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will be an unsettled period with the risk of some rather heavy rain around Wednesday into Thursday. Highs each day 16-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Another warmer, dry spell could be well timed again for around Friday-Saturday then back to unsettled conditions, temperatures may average a little above normal in this outlook period.

My local weather on Friday featured increasing cloud with a high of about 20, rain has just begun and is expected to become heavy by morning.

M.T. Cranium · 18-09-2016 6:55am

Sunday, 18 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will spread rather gradually east, reaching central counties before noon, and Leinster this afternoon, most places will see 10-15 mm, and highs will reach 16-18 C. Equally gradual clearing will follow from the west, reaching west-central counties by sunset. Moderate south to southwest winds will shift to light west or northwest with the clearance.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing for most of the night in east coast counties, but gradual clearing elsewhere, perhaps followed by fog patches by sunrise. Cooler with lows near 7 C (except 10 C east coast).

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers mainly in north-central counties mid-day, little accumulation. Highs 15-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers developing, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some heavier rain in western counties, mostly light rain or drizzle further east, moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny intervals, showers more isolated. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers, highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Heavy rain currently indicated for Saturday, clearing on Sunday, temperatures near normal.

My local weather on Saturday was wet, heavy rain fell during the morning, but it has cleared up since late afternoon.

Remnants of "Ian" have formed a strong low north of the Faeroes and today's frontal system is a cold front from that low, with an associated frontal wave. Meanwhile, Julia remains almost stationary southeast of Georgia, and Karl is making progress west; most models continue to show Karl eventually becoming a hurricane near Bermuda in about a week. There's another tropical wave now leaving the Cape Verde Islands that could become Tropical Storm Lisa in a few days.

M.T. Cranium · 19-09-2016 7:47am

Monday, 19 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy at first, a few sunny breaks may develop in some places by mid-day and afternoon, also a few scattered light showers, trace or about 1 mm amounts expected. Rather cool, highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, cool. Lows 5-8 C except 8-11 C west coast, where some light rain may develop towards morning.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers developing, but most of the rain will be confined to western counties where 3-7 mm likely, with highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some heavier rain in western counties, mostly light rain or drizzle further east, moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny intervals, showers more isolated. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C. Brisk southwest to west winds at times.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers, highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavy rain at times, gusty winds, highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, but a clearing trend, highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Warming up again next week (26th to 30th) with a chance of temperatures returning to the low 20s at times.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy at first, some pleasant sunshine for a part of the afternoon, then heavy showers by evening, highs near 18 C with a brisk south wind at times. On Saturday, as I reported, the weather here was unsettled, but apparently a micro-burst or possible tornado went through a resort area about 400 km northeast of here (near Shuswap Lake) at about 7 to 8 p.m. local time and caused a lot of structural damage to homes; radar had the appearance of a squall line. No first-order weather stations along the path so would have to estimate wind gusts from the damage, about 160 to 200 km/hr, more likely straight-line winds than a tornado but tornado-like anyway.

M.T. Cranium · 20-09-2016 7:29am

Tuesday, 20 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, occasional light rain mostly in western counties where about 5 mm is possible, highs near 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, outbreaks of light rain becoming heavier near Atlantic coasts towards morning, lows 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of rain with a few heavier bursts, followed by gradual clearing in west as this front moves to the east coast, highs near 16 and winds becoming moderate south to southwest 40-60 km/hr, some higher gusts near coasts.

THURSDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sun, isolated showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain becoming heavy at times in western counties by evening. Lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Outbreaks of heavy rain, eventually spreading east but with the heaviest falls in Connacht and west Munster where 30 mm could fall leading to some spot flooding, 15-20 mm eventually further east. Rather warm and humid with strong southerly winds 50-80 km/hr. Lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, some further outbreaks of light rain and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Eventually becoming warmer next week, highs could be near or a little above 20 C by mid-week, relatively dry.

My local weather on Monday started out with torrential rain but it began to clear after lunch time and some sunshine followed, highs near 17 C.

The prognosis on Tropical Storm Karl remains about the same this morning, as the storm moves gradually west and then north-west later in the week, most models show it as a hurricane near Bermuda by next weekend. Rather than recurving towards Ireland next week, it seems likely to move more northward towards Iceland and this may interact with high pressure to promote a warm, dry spell, but this scenario is still far from certain at this time interval. Another storm seems likely to follow along, "Lisa" may soon get a name, currently it is Tropical Depression 13 (the difference between L=12 and TD 13 is due to the fact that one numbered depression earlier never received a name).

M.T. Cranium · 21-09-2016 6:39am

Wednesday, 21 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A band of moderate to heavy rain will sweep across the country today, arriving on the west coast soon, and reaching the east coast by early afternoon. Expect 15-20 mm of rain and southerly winds of 40-60 km/hr, with highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, cooler. Lows 5-8 C. Moderate southwest winds will remain a factor near Atlantic coasts and in the north.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers mainly north, moderate southwest winds, highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain arriving in west late in the day. Lows 4-7 C except 7-10 C west, and highs 15-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavy rain is expected, 20-30 mm in west, 10-20 mm east. Some parts of Connemara and Kerry could see 50 mm with local flooding. Lows of 10 C and highs of 15-17 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, strong winds may develop late in the day, highs near 16 C.

MONDAY into TUESDAY ... Advance storm watch ... the North American models are now showing a strong post-tropical storm (Karl) making a run towards Scotland, with a risk of strong winds and heavy rain for Ireland as a result. Timing is of course approximate given that Karl first has to intensify and recurve, the best estimate of timing at this point is Monday night into Tuesday morning. The European model is still somewhat slower in merging Karl with a low crossing the Atlantic but maps show roughly similar potential although in two parts with Karl's remnant low near Ulster late Tuesday. Most guidance at this point suggests that wind gusts could reach or exceed 100 km/hr at some point during this complex process, with 15-30 mm rainfalls around Monday into Tuesday. There is still a lot of uncertainty involved, as Karl has not yet begun to intensify -- there remains a chance that only the "regular" low will be arriving in this time frame, but even so, unsettled weather appears likely until mid-week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some relatively warm and dry weather seems likely to follow the passage of Karl, by about Wednesday 28th but this will probably only last a day or two before another windy and cooler interval develops. Some guidance suggests very cool and windy weather developing at the end of the month and into the first two days of October. A lot will depend on how Karl actually evolves as a very strong storm would probably energize the jet stream for several days to a week.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny at times, with large towering cumulus and local showers around the region, highs about 16 C.

Karl is currently moving northwest towards a point just east of Bermuda by Saturday, then southeast of Newfoundland by Sunday night. From there it is projected to move rapidly east-north-east towards Scotland by Tuesday. It will lose tropical characteristics around Sunday night or Monday morning but will remain a powerful storm, as it could be a category 2 hurricane at its peak this weekend.

Lisa has now received a name and at times has outperformed Karl despite being a smaller system, but there is no expectation at this time that Lisa will do much more than die out in the central Atlantic in a few days.

M.T. Cranium · 22-09-2016 7:02am

Thursday, 22 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERTS ... Heavy rainfall on Saturday, 20-40 mm in many locations, 50 mm in some western counties, may lead to spot flooding during the day. ... Remnants of Karl will probably merge with Atlantic low pressure near Ireland on Monday night, with significant wind and rain potential.

TODAY ... Some sunshine at first, more frequent in east, then scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm, most likely in Connacht and west to central Ulster. Moderate southwest winds at times, highs near 16 C. (note, autumnal equinox occurs at 3:21 p.m. Irish summer time)

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, cool. Lows 3-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, winds becoming southerly 40-70 km/hr by late in the day, rain moving onto the west coast during the evening. Highs 15-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavy rain at times, torrential downpours possible in west and later inland southeast, 20-40 mm in many areas, 50 mm potential in Connemara and Kerry. Lows 9-12 C and highs 15-18 C, winds southerly 40-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, showers. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Storm watch still in effect. Strong south to southwest winds may develop and persist for much of this period, heavy rain is less certain but possible especially in the southwest. There is potential for gusts to about 100 km/hr, as "Karl" in post-tropical phase merges with an Atlantic low to the northwest. This could occur rather rapidly and close to Ireland but confidence is only moderate so far. Temperatures will probably be around 15 to 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Variable conditions in rather breezy conditions for the rest of the week, temperatures rather warm at first then falling off to around 13 to 15 C late in the week.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with a high near 19 C. Not much change to previous discussions of Karl and Lisa, in fact Karl has been rated only a tropical depression for the past day but its development cycle is about to ramp up as it escapes the hostile influences of an upper level low and moves over a warmer part of the subtropical Atlantic. It should become a hurricane in about two days east of Bermuda. Then it will quickly turn northeast and collide with the jet stream west of Ireland. Lisa has peaked in intensity (at 45-50 mph winds) and will move slowly north before dying out southwest of Madeira.

M.T. Cranium · 23-09-2016 7:37am

Friday, 23 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfall tonight (southwest only) and tomorrow (most regions) with 20-40 mm possible, 50 mm locally in parts of Kerry, Connemara, with the risk of local flooding. Storm watch is still in effect for Tuesday when remnants of Karl could energize a frontal system producing locally heavy rains (south and west), and strong winds especially for northern regions.

TODAY ... Increasing cloud this morning, becoming quite windy in western counties by afternoon (southerly 50-60 km/hr) with rain arriving towards late afternoon becoming heavier this evening in Atlantic coastal counties. Highs about 16-18 C.

TONIGHT into SATURDAY ... Heavy rainfall and strong southerly winds of 50 to 70 km/hr will develop across the west and will move gradually east tomorrow, 20-40 mm is likely by late afternoon, with locally heavier amounts in torrential bursts with totals near 50 mm in parts of Kerry and Connemara which could produce some local flooding there. Lows overnight 12-14 C and highs Saturday 15-18 C. Winds easing in western counties by afternoon with partial clearing there.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of strong winds and squally showers, some brighter intervals also, and rather cool. Lows 9-12 C and highs 13-16 C. Rainfalls generally about 2-5 mm.

MONDAY ... At this point, it appears that very warm subtropical air will flood north ahead of Karl, and this may set off some further heavy rainfalls in parts of central and northern counties. Winds will be moderate south to southwest, it will probably stay mostly cloudy but any sunshine will boost temperatures close to 21 C (highs otherwise about 19 C).

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers that may be squally in some parts, and strong southwest winds. There is a risk of gale or storm force gusts in the north when remnants of Karl move rapidly past, but a higher risk of storm force winds in the Atlantic near Donegal Bay. Highs will be about 18 C. Winds across the south may remain in a moderate 50-70 km/hr range but could reach 70-100 km/hr at times in the north.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, rather mild, showers late in the day. Highs around 18-20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat cooler in stages towards the end of the week; some risk of further strong winds but more likely moderately breezy most of the time, in a brisk westerly flow. Highs 15-18 C.

There is still considerable uncertainty in the evolution of Karl over the weekend but the storm is gaining in strength today as it approaches Bermuda from the south. It should pass just to the east of Bermuda tonight as it reaches near hurricane intensity, then will move northeast, forecast to merge with another low entering the Atlantic near Newfoundland tomorrow, in the central Atlantic on Sunday night. The merged storm will be near northern Scotland on Tuesday night. Much depends on the details and how close the strong wind field comes to Donegal as the system passes; some part of the near Atlantic if not the coast of Ireland will see gusts as high as 120 km/hr from this storm by Tuesday.

My local weather on Thursday was partly to mostly sunny and the high was about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2016 7:34am

Saturday, 24 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Heavy rain will continue to press further east, 20-30 mm additional could fall in east Munster and south Leinster, 10-20 mm further north and west although a partial clearance will develop near Atlantic coasts after mid-day, as the strong winds become more confined to eastern counties (southerly 50 to 80 km/hr). Highs 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some isolated showers, moderate southwest winds, lows 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, moderate southwest to west winds, showers and isolated thunderstorms, highs near 16 C south, 14 C north.

MONDAY ... Warm and humid, outbreaks of rain but also some brief sunny breaks, morning lows 10-13 C and afternoon/evening highs 18-21 C. Winds moderate south to southwest at first becoming strong southwest by late afternoon and evening. Storm force gusts may develop around midnight into early Tuesday morning across the north.

TUESDAY ... Very blustery during the early morning hours, temperatures steady 14-16 C in southwest winds of 70-110 km/hr north, 50-80 km/hr south. Some showers but a drying trend, then as winds abate later in the day, pleasant sunshine and warm, highs of about 18 or 19 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain arriving later, lows 7-9 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be somewhat cooler in overcast and sometimes showery conditions, moderate westerly winds, highs each day 14-16 C.

The first half of October on recent charts (very long term so confidence not high on this) looks rather settled and temperatures oscillating between normal and above normal values, so fairly decent, but with one or two windy days in the mix. Earlier suggestions of colder weather seem to have been suppressed no doubt due to better tracking on Karl (whose remnants will pass Ireland on Monday night and end up in northern Russia by end of the week).

Karl is currently passing just south of Bermuda towards the northeast, and is on the verge of becoming a minimal (cat-1) hurricane later today. The storm will then become post-tropical on Monday; while it's shown as absorbed by a low near Iceland sometimes part of the structure of these tropical systems keeps going for a day or two before entirely disappearing from view, and I would not be surprised if we can see fragments of the circulation of Karl in the fast westerly flow northwest of Donegal on Monday night. This may promote a few very squally showers near the coast. Meanwhile, Lisa has pretty much ended her minor rampage and is dying out south of the Azores where there is a strong subtropical high keeping Karl and Lisa from making any real connections.

My local weather on Friday was foggy with light rain and drizzle and it was rather chilly (14 C), we had to turn on the heating for the first time since May.

M.T. Cranium · 25-09-2016 7:02am

Sunday, 25 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, cool, with occasional showers or intervals of light rain, about 5 mm on average. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog and mist, rain becoming heavier near the south coast where about 10 to 15 mm is likely. Lows 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Rain at times, heavier in southeast (5-15 mm additional) and becoming warmer by late afternoon into the evening and overnight hours as remnants of Karl drive subtropical air north. Mid-day temperatures near 15 C but possibly rising to 18-20 C by evening especially in the southwest.

TUESDAY ... Early morning squally showers in the north, gusty southwest winds then gradual clearing in most areas, rather warm but windy. There is still some uncertainty about wind speeds but they will likely be stronger in the north (possibly 70-100 km/hr) than the south (40-70 km/hr). Temperatures steady 16-18 C overnight will level off near 18 or 19 C during the day.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm, rain developing and becoming heavy on Atlantic coasts by afternoon and evening. Lows near 10 C and highs about 19 or 20 C with 5-15 mm rain in west (Clare may see heaviest amounts).

THURSDAY ... Rain becoming more showery, partial clearing, cooler. Lows near 11 C then highs 14-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy and cool. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled with temperatures near normal values for early October (highs 14-16 C).

Karl is moving along very quickly now, towards the east-north-east and located south of Newfoundland. It appears to be near hurricane intensity but just about when it gets to that mark, it may also become post-tropical. Models generally tend to merge it with a low further north by late Monday, but we need to keep a close eye on developments in case this merger is less complete than expected by Monday afternoon, because by then whatever is left of Karl will be rapidly approaching Donegal. Western Scotland will take the brunt of the storm on Tuesday with heavy rains and strong winds. These developments will lead to another very warm spell in southern England mid-week, highs could reach 23 C there.

My local weather on Saturday started cloudy with patchy fog and drizzle, then somewhat brighter by afternoon with highs near 17 C. A long warm spell is gradually coming to an end in eastern North America with a more autumnal high from northern Canada drifting across the Great Lakes, bringing temperatures that are close to normal values. That air mass is spreading into the northeastern U.S. and will push about as far south as Virginia but it will remain hot in the southeastern states.

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2016 7:06am

Monday, 26 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy, outbreaks of rain with some breaks developing, but also the risk of a briefly heavy thundershower. On average 5-10 mm further rainfall with heavier amounts in southeast. Foggy at times near south coast and over hills. Temperatures will slowly rise to about 15-16 C by afternoon and may rise further this evening especially in Munster (inland) where 19-20 C may be reached. Some gusty south winds could develop at times mid-day near Wexford coasts but most places will have relatively light or moderate south to southwest breezes all day.

TONIGHT ... Warm and humid, a few more showers, winds increasing to about 50 to 70 km/hr in many places, 70 to 100 km/hr near Donegal Bay. Temperatures may not drop much as the core of the warm sector of decaying tropical system Karl will be swept through the country, expect readings somewhere between 15 and 18 C most of the time.

TUESDAY ... Windy at first, then moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr after cloud breaks up and sunshine develops, quite warm. Highs 18-22 C and possibly as high as 23 C in coastal Wicklow and south Dublin.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunny intervals in east, cloudy from early morning in west, with rain gradually spreading into Atlantic counties during the afternoon and evening. Warm, lows 11-14 C and highs 17-21 C, warmest southeast. Moderate south to southwest winds occasionally quite gusty by late in the day.

THURSDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times in the early morning hours, then tapering off to showers before partial clearing by afternoon, in a fresher westerly flow. Lows 10-13 C and highs 14-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rain may become heavy again by about Saturday, and temperatures will remain close to average (there will be a brief return to very warm conditions around Sunday 2nd-Monday 3rd in southern Britain and this very warm air could briefly touch down in parts of southeast Ireland).

Karl has been rapidly sheared apart and part of the energy has been held back to assist the mid-week low but also it appears that some energy flowed forward into the current system as well as the one expected to speed past Ireland tonight towards Scotland. A new tropical system north of Guyana may become a tropical depression soon and would get the name Matthew if it continues to develop near the Windward Islands mid-week. This one seems likely to head into the Caribbean and end up somewhere near Mexico.

My local weather on Sunday was bright and rather warm at 23 C, sunshine sometimes getting through high cloud.

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2016 6:20am

Tuesday, 27 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Warm, clouds gradually giving way to longer sunny intervals in moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr (60 to 80 km/hr near western and northern coasts) with highs 18-22 C and possibly as high as 23 C in coastal Wicklow and south Dublin.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, very mild, spotty light rain or drizzle, lows 12-16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunny intervals in east, cloudy from early morning in west, with early light rain dissipating over the north, then somewhat heavier rain gradually spreading into Atlantic counties during the afternoon and evening. Warm, highs 17-21 C, warmest southeast. Moderate south to southwest winds occasionally quite gusty by late in the day.

THURSDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times in the early morning hours, then tapering off to showers before partial clearing by afternoon, in a fresher westerly flow. Lows 10-13 C and highs 14-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cool, frequent showers. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of rain becoming heavy at times, strong southerly winds may develop but this time warmer air (20-23 C) will only reach parts of Britain, as highs in Ireland will remain near 15 or 16 C. Potential for 10-20 mm rainfalls.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and breezy with rather frequent showers, but some sunny breaks in the mix on most days in early October, temperatures near normal values (highs 13-16 C).

Matthew has not been named (or numbered) yet but it seems inevitable later today with most models showing potential for a hurricane to form in the eastern Caribbean region by later this week. Meanwhile, Typhoon Megi is bearing down on eastern Taiwan and the eye will just about bisect the island nation later today (their local time is 7 hours ahead of IST).

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with sunny intervals and it was quite warm (about the same as you're likely to see today, but with almost no breeze) with a high of about 21.

M.T. Cranium · 28-09-2016 6:37am

Wednesday, 28 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Warm and humid, some brighter intervals in southeast, light rain at times in west and north, amounts slight before end of afternoon. Highs will range from 17 C in northwest, to 21 or 22 C southeast.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of rain becoming heavier at times especially in west Munster and south Connacht where 10-15 mm could fall by morning. Elsewhere more like 5 mm on average. Lows 10-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Becoming rather breezy with morning showers, rather heavy in places, then some clearing and further scattered showers to follow, highs will range from 13 C northwest to 16 C southeast.

FRIDAY ... Showers or intervals of rain, possible thunder, cool. Rainfalls may average about 10 mm with considerable variation, lows 4-7 C and highs about 13 or 14 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, passing showers (2-4 mm on average) and cool, lows 2-6 C and highs 11-15 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud from early morning, rather cold southeast winds of 30-50 km/hr in eastern half of country, somewhat milder by afternoon in Munster and Connacht with strong southeast to south winds at times, rain edging onto west coast by late afternoon or evening. Lows 2-5 C (scattered ground frost likely in north Leinster and Ulster), highs 13-17 C mildest in southwest.

SUNDAY NIGHT into MONDAY will feature intervals of rain, 10-15 mm, but some dry intervals, as southerly winds ease, milder at night (10 C) but about the same as previous days in the daytime (15 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK is for several days of unsettled and at times quite blustery weather, near normal temperatures trending down to cooler than normal in the second week of October.

Matthew appears to be forming east of Barbados, and should have a name within a day. Most model guidance shows a large and powerful hurricane developing after a few days of tropical storm activity through the central Caribbean; the eventual hurricane may move up the east coast of the U.S. and make a landfall somewhere (too much variation in guidance to favour any one location, could be anywhere from Florida to New England). That is expected to happen about the 4th to 7th of October. Meanwhile, a stalled system over the Great Lakes is holding back a ridge of high pressure over the upper Midwest, which is good for the Ryder Cup forecast (crisp fall weather with daytime highs 16-19 C after cool morning starts). My local weather on Tuesday was partly sunny and the high reached 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-09-2016 7:09am

Thursday, 29 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, breezy (westerly 40-70 km/hr at times) with a few passing showers, highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some breaks, scattered light showers developing, cool, lows about 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, showers may turn into longer periods of rain by evening, 10-15 mm could fall overnight into Saturday morning. Highs only 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavier showers ending in the east by morning or mid-day then mostly cloudy with a few breaks, passing light showers or patchy drizzle but a slow drying and clearing trend. It will feel rather chilly even during the mid-day period, except in a few places where the sun comes out for any length of time, and by evening quite cold but light winds will help (if you're attending the match in Dublin, for example). Morning lows of 4-7 C, highs of 11-14 C. Temperatures in the evening around 9 or 10 degrees.

SUNDAY ... Some clearing in the east during the morning, patchy light frost in rural north Leinster and Ulster, lows 2-6 C for most other places. Increasing cloud for eastern regions but dry with a chilly southeast wind 30-50 km/hr, highs 12-14 C. Overcast with light rain moving into the west, highs 14-17 C, with southeast to south winds 40-60 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Occasional rain, milder, highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, showers. Highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern will become rather static with high pressure over northern Europe and low pressure well off in the Atlantic. Some frontal systems will break through at least as far as western parts of Ireland but eastern Ireland as well as Britain will have longer dry spells. It will be rather cloudy and temperatures will average near normal for early October, highs of about 14 or 15 C with slight variations.

Tropical Storm Matthew has come along rather quickly and is already close to hurricane intensity. Model guidance continues to suggest the most likely track is past Jamaica and the Bahamas then up the east coast of the U.S., but latest models have shifted this track a little to the east, meaning less probability of a damaging landfall for the eastern U.S. ... however, it's too early to be very confident of where this will go, and anywhere from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to Bermuda could be involved in the eventual history of this storm. It also looks capable of becoming very strong next week but that is also not nailed down yet. Meanwhile, my local weather was quite pleasant on Wednesday with sunshine and highs near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-09-2016 7:40am

Friday, 30 September, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some sunny intervals in east and north this morning, widespread light showers for south and west, becoming heavier over central counties by afternoon then extending to the east coast later afternoon and evening. Some steady rain is likely by evening across parts of the inland south. Rather cool especially when the sun goes behind cloud, highs 11-15 C. Rainfalls to end of the daylight hours about 5-10 mm. Some hail and thunder could accompany some of the heavier showers (most likely around north/east Cork, Limerick, Tipperary, Kilkenny).

TONIGHT ... Rain at times (5-10 mm), light winds backing to northeast then north 20-40 km/hr, rather cold with lows 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... A few heavier showers ending in the east by morning or mid-day (further 5-10 mm possible) then partly to mostly cloudy with a few breaks, passing light showers or patchy drizzle but a slow drying and clearing trend. It will feel rather chilly even during the mid-day period, except in a few places where the sun comes out for any length of time, and by evening quite cold but light winds will help (if you're attending the match in Dublin, for example). Highs of 11-14 C. Temperatures in the evening around 9 or 10 degrees.

SUNDAY ... Some clearing in the east during the morning, patchy light frost in rural north Leinster and Ulster, lows about 1-5 C for most other places. Increasing cloud for eastern regions but dry with a chilly southeast wind 30-50 km/hr, highs 12-14 C. Overcast with light rain moving into the west, highs 14-17 C, with southeast to south winds 40-60 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Occasional rain (10-15 mm), milder, moderate south to southwest winds 40-60 km/hr and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, showers. Highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Occasional rain and strong winds in western counties, but fronts will tend to die out crossing Ireland so that eastern counties may be considerably drier and somewhat less windy too. Temperatures will likely average near or slightly above normal values for much of early October trending down below average mid-month.

Meanwhile, in the southeast Caribbean, Hurricane Matthew has really been putting on a show overnight, quickly intensifying to a category 2 hurricane and now expected to reach cat-3 or even cat-4 intensity before possibly taking a run at Jamaica on Sunday or Monday. From there, the most likely track is north across Cuba into the Bahamas, and coming dangerously close to the southeast U.S. coast. Longer term is very uncertain for this storm, it might move inland, hug the coast to Nova Scotia, or swerve east and start crossing the Atlantic. There is even an outside chance that it won't turn north at all until it passes Cuba and possibly even Florida (I consider this to be maybe a one in five chance) then it would make a landfall somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico (Mobile AL would be the best guess in that case). ... My local weather on Thursday was sunny with some high cloud at times, and the high was once again close to 20 C (nights are getting colder in this spell though).

M.T. Cranium · 01-10-2016 7:33am

Saturday, 1st of October, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers will continue in Leinster until mid-day or early afternoon with 5-10 mm more rain possible, while gradual clearing develops elsewhere in a slack northerly gradient. The partial clearing will begin to spread through Leinster during the afternoon. Highs 12-15 C. Note: the new moon has just occurred as of 1:11 a.m. today.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals but clear enough in parts of Leinster and Ulster, eastern Connacht, to promote ground frost, lows there 1 to 5 C. More cloud further west will keep lows around 5 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals for most, increasing cloud near Atlantic coasts, rain arriving by about sunset there. Winds southeast 30-50 km/hr will feel rather chilly especially near exposed coasts. Highs 13-16 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT into MONDAY, rain will edge further east although making very slow progress, and tending to die out east of the midlands. Western counties will see 5-15 mm. Southerly breezes in all regions of 40-60 km/hr and overnight lows 8-10 C, highs Monday 14-17 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy once the rainfall fragments to a few lingering showers, and temperatures will be similar, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK for the rest of the week calls for frequent cloudy intervals in the west and occasional light rain at times, mild days and nights, but partly cloudy and sometimes clear skies in the east, mild days but cold nights as a result.

Hurricane Matthew put on quite a show for the past day, managing to intensify all the way to category-5 north of Colombia. There have been slightly stronger Atlantic cat-5 storms but with sustained winds of 260 km/hr and gusts to about 300, this one is quite impressive. It's heading west and then northwest all weekend and may slam into Jamaica at some point late Sunday. Hopefully it will take a different track or at least lose some of this deadly force. Possible tracks run from Haiti in the east to west-central Cuba, then a weakened storm would enter the Bahamas and begin to re-strengthen over the Gulf stream. One model (GFS) shows a very strong hurricane redeveloping and moving up the east coast of the U.S. to make a landfall near New York City on Sunday the 9th of October. While this looks rather implausible to many, it's not very different from what Sandy managed to do four years ago, or a hurricane way back in 1821 that came up the east coast (both of these had somewhat different origins than Matthew). Another analogue hurricane is Hazel (1954) which swerved inland over North Carolina after a similar track, then headed for southern Ontario. Meanwhile, some other models are showing more of a weakened Matthew moving along in the Gulf stream well offshore until a brief encounter with southeast Newfoundland (in about ten days). ... My local weather continued placid with sunshine and highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 02-10-2016 6:36am

Sunday, 2 October, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with a few cloudy intervals in most regions, increasing cloud in Atlantic coastal counties. Highs 13-16 C. Winds rather light this morning then becoming moderate southeast (30-50 km/hr), feeling rather cold in some exposed coastal areas.

TONIGHT ... Rain edging onto the west coast, not likely to make too much progress eastward, in fact skies may remain partly clear near east coast. Lows from 4 to 7 C east, 7 to 10 C where 5 mm rain and moderate south winds will continue.

MONDAY ... Occasional rain in far west, highs near 15 C. Partly cloudy further east, highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers at times, still mainly confined to west, some sunny breaks developing, lows 5-8 C and highs 12-16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild. Highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain in far west, cloudy but dry further east, highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This rather bland pattern will continue with stronger fronts just off to the west of Ireland likely dying out just about when they reach the west coast, still there could be some intervals of moderate winds and rain there, but possibly an extended dry spell in parts of Leinster and Ulster, as is even more likely in Britain. Eventually there may be a slight cooling trend in east winds, followed by a surge of very mild air from the south around mid-month.

Hurricane Matthew has been performing various tight loops and moving only a few miles at a time despite its constant 200 km/hr wind circulation. Luckily it is well off the Colombian coast now and drifting away to the northwest. Most models show it trying to thread the needle between Cuba and Haiti, a track which will brush eastern Jamaica on Monday. Eventually the hurricane, possibly weakened to about category 2, will try to rebuild in the Bahamas (which is basically 90% ocean and 10% land) and from there it could go up the east coast of the U.S., possibly impacting New England or even eastern Canada, but there is about an equal chance that it will stay well out to sea and head north towards Greenland or western Iceland in about ten days to two weeks. This would come around the time that I'm expecting a warmer spell in Ireland. Given the unusual gyrations today and the slack gradient in the upper steering patterns, Matthew could go off on a real tangent too, no track is really all that solid yet. Meanwhile, the long dry spell we were enjoying came to an end on Saturday with considerable cloud and some spells of light rain, with cooler highs near 15 C. Fall colours are well advanced around here but only slight leaf fall noted so far partly due to light winds most days.

M.T. Cranium · 03-10-2016 7:17am

Monday, 3 October, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Occasional rain (5-10 mm) in western counties will ease off for part of the afternoon. Further east, mostly cloudy with just a few isolated showers but dry for many. All regions will have southeast winds increasing to 40-60 km/hr, with highs of 15 or 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavier rain will develop in the west, edging further inland as the night progresses, 10-30 mm could fall but mainly in counties that border on the Atlantic. It will be cloudy but dry further east. Southeast winds will ease off somewhat to 30-50 km/hr, lows 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain in the western counties will ease by afternoon after a further 10-15 mm falls. Once again, most of this will occur in counties that have an Atlantic coastline, and not very much rain will reach central regions while it should remain largely dry in the east with the odd sunny interval. Highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, morning fog patches, moderate southeast breezes. Lows 4-7 C and highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will probably turn slightly cooler as a chilly east wind across Britain mixes with the air mass in place over Ireland; the result will be somewhat more cloud and patchy drizzle in light to moderate southeast winds backing to east 30-50 km/hr; highs 11-13 C east and 13-17 C west, overnight lows may fall to 2-5 C in any clear patches but will often be close to 8 C under cloud and light mist.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The cool easterly regime will continue for several more days with similar temperatures (highs 12-15 C) and then it may turn a few degrees warmer towards the middle of October with highs possibly reaching the high teens or near 20 C for a time. To this point, very little rainfall seems likely in the east, slight amounts central and after tomorrow, just light amounts in the west too.

Hurricane Matthew is moving very slowly north and may try to thread the needle between Jamaica and Cuba on the west, and Haiti on the east, but Haiti and Jamaica will continue to see bands of heavy rainfalls regardless. The track is still hard to predict even in the next 24-48 hours and both Jamaica and Haiti are on hurricane watch in case Matthew (cat-4) decides to curve slightly in their directions. By mid-week Matthew will enter the Bahamas and the guidance generally seems to be clustering around a run up the east coast of the U.S. with a possible landfall in eastern North Carolina, then back out to sea with a second landfall in New England and/or eastern Canada. This would take place next Sunday or Monday on the current guidance. Meanwhile, my local weather on Sunday was sunny and pleasant with a high near 18 C. We were able to spot the very thin crescent of the new moon; look for a slightly more conspicuous showing if you have clear skies by this evening, and the planet Venus below the moon.

M.T. Cranium · 04-10-2016 6:58am

Tuesday, 4 October, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Further heavy rain in Atlantic coastal counties will tend to ease off as it also drifts back westward into the ocean by this afternoon, 15-30 mm could be added to about 80 mm that already fell in west Kerry and perhaps half that in parts of Clare and Galway. Flooding and local landslides are possible in hilly areas in those districts. Otherwise, about 90% of the country remains largely dry if rather cloudy, with the moderate southeast winds likely to continue today, with highs near 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Drizzle ending on west coast, partial clearing spreading from east to west but it may stay cloudy in the far west, lows 5-8 C. Some dense fog patches possible by morning in lower lying rural areas of east and inland south as well as areas that were soaked by previous heavy rainfalls.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy after the morning fog and mist clear, not as breezy, highs near 16 or 17 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see just a slight change to cooler temperatures but little change in the weather conditions, misty to start, partly cloudy during the day, light to moderate southeast winds. Lows 3-7 C and highs 11-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for a bland and settled weather pattern although with some patchy drizzle at times, very little rainfall accumulation is expected for most regions all the way to mid-month and just slight amounts near west coast after today's event finishes up. Temperatures will probably average a degree or two below normal mid-October values until a warming trend sets in towards the middle of the third week.

Hurricane Matthew remains a powerful category 4 storm already spreading strong winds over southwest Haiti and parts of eastern Jamaica, and life-threatening rains in some parts. The core of this hurricane will pass between Cuba and Haiti tonight and emerge into the south-central Bahamas where it will turn more to the northwest. Current consensus seems to be that it will approach eastern Florida but not go inland there so that some east coast regions of Florida will have strong tropical storm winds and heavy swells, but an actual landfall will occur by Saturday in either eastern South Carolina or central North Carolina. At that point, Matthew might still be at category-3 strength but will weaken to category-1 over land, re-emerging into the Atlantic near Norfolk, VA. From there is is likely to accelerate north-northeast and perhaps come inland again early Sunday 9th over eastern New England (or western New Brunswick, Canada) before rapidly being absorbed by low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes this weekend into Quebec. The remnant low will then travel into western Greenland regions and will have little if any direct impact on European weather except to anchor the high over Scandinavia by not pressing against it and pushing it east. Thus the models are also predicting a long spell of quiet, settled weather in Ireland, Britain and parts of western Europe.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with occasional light rain and the high was about 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-10-2016 7:42am

Wednesday, 5 October, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, moderate southeast winds at times, highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with mist and fog patches developing, southeast breezes continuing in coastal areas but becoming calm in some inland districts, a bit cooler with lows 6-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, slight chance of a few light showers near south and west coasts, trace to 2 mm amounts, highs 12-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy light drizzle, lows about 6 C and highs 12-15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This bland weather pattern will settle in for much of the period from this weekend to late next week, with slight variations from day to day in temperatures and cloud cover, and one or two episodes of light showers forming near coasts and spreading from east to west, but overall only slight amounts of rain are expected and temperatures will be near normal values or sometimes a bit cooler but no large variations. A somewhat more mobile pattern is expected after mid-month and a larger range from above to below normal days.

Hurricane Matthew is slowly emerging from the north coast of eastern Cuba in somewhat disrupted condition. The weather models have basically gone haywire with much different tracks for this hurricane after it moves through the Bahamas for two days and then near the Florida coast. From there, it may loop around clockwise and take a second trip through the Bahamas, or it may move along the coast and turn northeast (this scenario was favoured by most guidance yesterday, now it's shown on only one major model). At least we can continue to say that there appears to be very little chance of any remnant of Matthew crossing the North Atlantic, its fate seems to be to die out near Greenland but whether that's next week or the week after remains to be seen. Weak tropical storm Nicole has formed northeast of the Virgin Islands and will move harmlessly through the Sargasso Sea in the central Atlantic. ... My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with rain, heavy for a while this afternoon and it was rather cool at 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-10-2016 7:29am

Thursday, 6 October, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of sun and cloud, slight risk of an isolated shower near south coast but most places dry. Moderate southeast winds at times with highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, mist or fog patches forming towards morning, lows 3-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, a few light showers with trace to 2 mm amounts, moderate east-southeast breezes, rather cool. Highs 13-15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Little change, partly to mostly cloudy, but generally dry apart from some light drizzly showers in a few locations, lows 3-7 C and highs 12-15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The coolest part of this easterly spell is likely to be around Monday and Tuesday when highs may only reach 11 or 12 C, then it should slowly warm up again to near normal values of 14 to 16 C. With this warming trend, winds will swing back out of the east towards the southeast then south. A few warmer days may follow in south to southwest winds.

Hurricane Matthew has been at category 3 intensity all day (Wednesday) and is approaching Nassau, the capital of the Bahamas. Later today it will also be moving past Freeport, so this unfortunately could be a high impact event in the Bahamas, especially if Matthew intensifies as expected to category 4 with peak winds over 200 km/hr. Almost all guidance seems to agree now that Matthew will move up the east coast of Florida, never coming very far inland (if at all) but having a significant impact all along the coast from about Fort Lauderdale to Jacksonville. Storm surge may be the worst problem on this trajectory. It may be a bit further off the coast later on passing Georgia and South Carolina but they will see some strong winds and heavy rains. Then Matthew should weaken and do some sort of elaborate death spiral that may involve Nicole, now a strong tropical storm south of Bermuda.

A cold front is moving through the Midwest and will cross the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. for the next two days. Earlier, it was expected that this front would pick up Matthew and hurl the storm northeast, but now most guidance has concluded that the front is too fast for Matthew to catch up on Sunday so that eventually Matthew's remnants will die out somewhere in the western Atlantic or near Florida. Meanwhile, my local weather on Wednesday was sunny, breezy and cool with picturesque shower clouds over local hills, highs reaching about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-10-2016 7:42am

Friday, 7 October, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

Winter 2016-17 Outlook: I am expecting a rather different outcome from last winter, and something a little similar to 2010-2011 which started out very cold and snowy, then turned much milder. This winter, I am predicting rather cold weather to start, from late November through much of December, and the opportunity for some significant snowfalls. It probably won't be as intense as the cold or snow of late 2010, let's say on the order of two degrees below average and 5-15 cm snowfalls possible in the period (recall that Dec 2010 produced some 30-40 cm falls in Leinster). As usual, this snowfall would be more likely in the eastern half of the country and in some parts of the northwest. Then I expect a much milder pattern to develop in January peaking towards the end of the month with very mild weather. February and March look fairly average in my research output. This winter outlook will be updated whenever I have new insights, no update means I am holding to this outlook.

As to the short-term forecast, little change from yesterday (which is why I had the space to add the long-range outlook ...)

TODAY, some light showers will drift northwest across parts of west Munster and south Connacht. It may stay dry elsewhere and skies will be partly cloudy. Moderate southeast winds, highs near 15 or 16 C.

TONIGHT, cloudy with a few clear breaks, mist or light fog by morning, cool. Lows 2-6 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and seasonably mild days with highs near 14 or 15 C.

MONDAY could turn out slightly colder with patchy light drizzle in east winds, a few sunny breaks also, lows 1-4 C with chance of ground frost, highs 10-13 C.

TUESDAY will turn somewhat milder again, partly cloudy and 13-15 C.

Another shot of cool air from the east may arrive mid-week then a slow warming trend will return. Right through to mid-month there won't be much if any rain in many places, and where it does fall, it will seldom amount to much more than 1-2 mm.

Hurricane Matthew is very close to Cape Canaveral, Florida this morning, and may make a partial landfall with part of the eye remaining over the Atlantic. From there it will hug the coast all the way north to Charleston, South Carolina. Significant wind damage and coastal flooding will take place but it remains a bit unclear whether this will be a major disaster for Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, or just a moderate event if either the core weakens or the strongest winds stay offshore. Some mixture of both outcomes is likely. Nicole also became a hurricane and surprised everyone by making it to category 2, her future path seems to be back to the point of origin almost, then back to where she is now after that (a long-term meandering) while Matthew may try to interact or make some other complicated loop after leaving the Carolina coast. A strong cold front is creating some severe storms in the central plains states, and will rush to the east coast, while it has turned quite cold in western Canada, in fact a foot of snow blankets much of Saskatchewan already, disrupting the incomplete harvest. My local weather was overcast, rather foggy then wet by evening, highs about 14 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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