capital growth limited risk

Might be too low for some people but PSG to beat Dijon tomorrow at 1.1 on BF stake is 5% of current bank = €49.

liverpool to beat Midjtyland in Uefa champions league this tuesday 27th at 1.13 on BF €49 win.

Again it has drifted to 1.14 and there has been some 1.15 available but don't let that put you off, for a UEFA champions league match at home I am presuming a full strength Liverpool team (even without VD) will beat the weakest team in the group this is a must win for Lpool to bank 6 points in the league phases on the home and away leg against this team, they were lucky to get the win last week against Ajax so will want to bank that luck with 3 steady points at home.

The 1.22 price on Liverpool that they have drifted too is ridiculous!!!! IMO!

will post up the results table at the end of the week, the bank has made a recovery and now sits at 966 based on advices given still 33 down on the start but I take a very long term view on these things, and operate a very low risk strategy in terms of sudden big losses to the bank. That is just my philosophy on these things, taking account of some of the crazy price drifts of late, Liverpool went out to 1.25 sp the other night I am leaving posting bets up until nearer the time of the matches. I am toying with the idea of Arsenal tonight ok it is only 1.09 but for me it is money for old rope (famous last words), if he puts out a really crazy 2nd team against lesser opposition they may drift further, certainly if they drift like Milan did against Shamrock Rovers, or liverpool did this week i will consider them. If they hit 1.15 for example yes don't miss out on such a high value opportunity, take a punt yourselves. I do have two for the weekend but based on recent drifting patterns I am not putting them up until saturday. Keep an eye on Arsenal I will more than likely take a price on them I simply cannot see a league of ireland team for all the gusto they have beating a team of premier league players.

westtip wrote: »

OK Arsenal have hit 1.12 on BF at that price they are worth a punt, €49 win.

Hope you picked up this message - during the first half they drifted to as high as 1.22 and whilst they took their time to score it was always going to happen, I managed to get 1.13 before kick off but kick myself for not trading in the match. These senior league teams against the minnows in the groups are like shooting fish in the barrel and it may take time for a team to score like it did Arsenal tonight. Dundalk were plucky and can be proud of being there but this one was a foregone conclusion (if ever there can be), 5% of bank at 1.1 achieves a bank growth of half of one percentage point growth on your overall bank, more than you will get from the Bank in a year. OK losers will happen but believe me this approach does work if you make sure you get the best prices on offer. Our annual target remains 15% growth on bank.

Apologies I thought I had posted a second bet yesterday, PSV at 1.25 (had drifted from 1.2) I was on it but cannot claim it as a post, they won easily. 5 -0 I think the final score.

Got an away bet tonight Benfica away to Boavista at 1.3 on BF. Benfica have won 5/5 i the league, Boavista not won yet drawn 3 lost 2 G difference -6 compared with Benfica +12. Benfica should knock this on the head tonight. 3 full days rest since Thursday nights home win the Europa league so no travel fatigue already a tight battle at the top of the league they will see Boavista as a 6 point fixture this season. 1.3 is a good price some bookies are 1.25 Paddy Power as low as 1.22. 1.3 is good value. don't normally do away bets but if this was Benfica at home they could be as low as 1.12. Anyway thats my view €50 win at 1.3. BF exchange only.

Unbelievable result.On a par with that 4 -0 drubbing of Bayern. Stunned!! Ah well it is a long term game.

cute geoge wrote: »

Are you trying too hard ,I think you have the right idea but you need just a bit more patience .I did not back your tip last night as even you were unsure yourself .The Arsenal result was spot on but it is no good looking for extra value unless it is going to be a winner!!!

It was tinged with doubt, I think if I had remembered to post PSV on Sunday I wouldn't have put it up but really, for me on all fronts it was a shoe in statistically, but hey ho, we all know this game. but it hurt losers of that magnitude always do. Also I was probably too keen to get the bank back to the start point. instead it is now down a 5% betting point again after a good run. OMG its hard but not catastrophic, I really do take a limited risk strategy and always try to beat the average market price across the main bookmakers, long term it does work. I am going to push on tonight with a 5% of bank bet of €48 euro on Man city to beat Olympiakos tonight at 1.23 on BF. I think they will be very focused on this despite an indifferent start to Premier league and will roll the dice on this one with a huge effort to push for early qualification for the knockout phases. the average price of most mainstream bookies is 1.20. PP as ever very skinny at 1.16. so 1.23 is reasonable value, there is plenty available. Hopefully we will recover over 20% of last night lost stake, if city go 2-0 up out of pure caution I would say lay at about 1.02 or 1.03 depending on how much time is left in game, will leave that one to yourselves.

ianburke wrote: »

the bookies prices are never a true reflection on the odds. if the betfair starting price is evens and the bookies odds are 5/6 or 10/11, the bet will come in 50% of the time and you will lose after commission. i can't see any way of making it pay unless you beat the betfair starting price which you have managed to do a few times - although laying off at 1.02 is probably throwing away the few ticks you managed to beat it by.

I let man city run on, personally I bagged 1.24 on monday on my own account you are dead right about the prices and commission you are on. Sometimes I lay to prevent the loss just as an emotional issue, yes you give a bit back on a few bets. got beaten on SP a few times recently due to some crazy drifts on match days whihc have startled me. The logarithm I work usually gives me an edge and about 80% strike rate, you go through periods of odd results, there have been one or two recently but I stick by my thought process and it is a long haul not a sprint.

Here is the updated results to date, bank is 5% down, not to concerned about that. I take a very cautious approach. Won't be dong anything until after the PIA. International break that is, a complete distraction and upsets the rhythm of domestic competitions. The most disappointing thing in these results was the loss of value in the AC Milan and Liverpool bets with the price drifts after posting them up, and not getting on Rangers at 1.12 this wkend. Real Madrid bet taught me once again don't bet on big clubs after international breaks too many stars suffering from jetlag and travel weariness, in particular clubs who have south american stars, that is a one long way to go and come back from in a few days just to play a football match, those guys are not functioning right until they have been back in Europe ten days. Those price drifts and not grabbing rangers at 1.12 cost about 2.5% of bank growth, these small margins make a difference at the end of the year. Anyway caution will continue to drive my thinking.

Bet number selectinon/descriptive played advised advised stake pricen advised result P/L cumulative Bank start 1000
1 Rangers v Dundee 12-Sep 11-Sep 50 1.19 1 9.5 9.5 1010
2 Bayern v Schalke 18-Sep 11-Sep 52 1.16 1 8.3 17.8 1018
3 Celtic v Livingstone 19-Sep 12-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 25.6 1026
4 AC Milan v Shamrock 16-Sep 17-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 33.4 1033
5 Helsinki v Turku 24-Sep 20-Sep 52 1.17 0 -52.0 -18.6 981
6 Hoffenheim v Bayern 27-Sep 18-Sep 52 1.34 0 -52.0 -70.6 929
7 Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge 27-Sep 26-Sep 50 1.25 1 12.5 -58.1 942
8 helsinki v ROPS 27-Sep 27-Sep 50 1.11 1 5.5 -52.6 947
9 Celtic v St Johnstone 04-Oct 04-Oct 50 1.45 1 22.5 -30.1 970
10 Rangers v Ross couty 04-Oct 03-Oct 50 1.11 1 5.5 -24.6 975
11 Bayern V Hertha 04-Oct 04-Oct 50 1.17 1 8.5 -16.1 984
12 Real Madrid v Cadiz 17-Oct 17-Oct 50 1.25 0 -50.0 -66.1 934
13 PSG v Dijon 24-Oct 23-Oct 49 1.1 1 4.9 -61.2 939
14 Rangers v Livingstone 25-Oct 25-Oct 49 1.25 1 12.3 -48.9 951
15 Benfica v Belenese 26-Oct 26-Oct 49 1.18 1 8.8 -40.1 960
16 Liverpool V Midtjyland 27-Oct 25-Oct 49 1.13 1 6.4 -33.7 966
17 Arsenal to bt Dundalk 29-Oct 29-Oct 49 1.12 1 5.9 -27.9 972
18 Ajax 01-Nov 01-Nov 49 1.1 1 4.9 -23.0 977
19 Benfica v Boavista 02-Nov 02-Nov 49 1.3 0 -49.0 -72.0 928
20 man city v Olympiacos 03-Nov 03-Nov 49 1.23 1 11.3 -61 939
21 Bodo Glimit 08-Nov 07-Nov 49 1.2 1 9.8 -51 949

Sometimes I am baffled by this, Bayern seem to have lost the plot, and actually could easily lost, As for Salzburg currently 0-3 down in the second half this is a day to forget. Had them before, need to be resilient in this game and take it on the chin, Hey ho.

Bambata you might be right I started posting these up just as an afterthought, might seize doing it from here, however I generally do back low price 1x2 and have found in the past ten years an average win ratio of about 80% betting 5% of bank you can hit some very long winning runs, that is when it kicks in to make money, I only lay out 5% of bank, the losses of the last the last few weeks are when a couple of loser clusters set you back, my bank has never fallen below 80% in a season and has shown profit in 9/10 seasons. The one losing season was a loss of 10% of bank. Ajax won today, in ten years I have never had a losing run of 3! so was sweating on that one. I might stop posting up, its a hassle to do it anyway, and just continue with what I do privately. Each to their own, thanks for your feedback. We are all on the same side in this battle!

ianburke wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054971966&page=4

your style of betting is identical to well over 10 years ago when you abandoned that thread after 5 or 6 very very short price losers in a row. i'm not sure anything has changed. i would like to see you finish this thread and back up the claims that your'e making money, but i do understand it is a hassle having to post up all your bets.

My god a long time ago! Yes it might just be too much of a hassle, I did privately back Rangers as well today, they are looking good to make money on this season although it irks me to say it!