Euromillions 2019

supremenovice · 22-09-2019 7:28pm

sasta le wrote: »

Yes wasn’t 22 not out for ages a while back
Any stats in the longest or average overdue numbers in Euro Milions

http://www.lotteryextreme.com/euro_millions/top_statistics

jacool · 23-09-2019 6:32pm

Doing a bit of homework tonight, but worth noting that if you fancy a bit of value, then Tuesday night's Euromillions will offer just that.
The last three jackpots, in this series of 18 rollovers, were €164m, €175m and €189,603,734.
This means that the jackpot is growing by over €10,000,000 each draw.
The good news for punters is that the jackpot is capped at €190,000,000 so that means that only €400,000 of the ten million is needed to reach the cap.
Therefore all that extra cash, which could actually be up to 15 million, based on the increasing jackpots, will be funneled down into the lower prizes.
It might just make every match 2 be a fiver instead of €4, but if you match a 4+2, 5 or hopefully a 5+1, the rewards will be way higher than normal.
Lump on!!

jacool · 25-09-2019 9:45am

What did I tell you!
Wade back in again Friday as its more of the same.
Three people last night matched 5+1 and got a cool €5,000,000 each.

For the record 02-33-42-47-48 were out, with 4 of those being in the bottom ten numbers drawn ever, before last night's draw. Only the one "birthday" number meant it was only going to be a fortuitous quick pick that would grab the huge jackpot.
I'm off Thursday and I know what I will be doing

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-09-2019 2:56pm

Interesting about the all time lowballs, the other handful of lows could be a line option for jackpot, then just 6/1 chance of landing a single star.

Also if/when the 5+1 'rolldown' occurs (not for maybe 5 draws yet), the average forced-down prize of 40m (assuming no jackpots in the mean time) and max <5 shared winners, it exceeds the 5+1 odds of 6,991,908/1.

As mentioned previously the 40's are over saturated with shows, so apart from a conflicting single line featuring the two other alltime lows, will be focusing on the lower ranges 4-6, 14-20, 23-36. Only like LS11.

sasta le · 25-09-2019 6:10pm

Meant to say thanks for 21 last week guys on Friday
I started to follow it got 2 2 balls up in Boylesports
21&25 21&50 €1 at 100 to 1

jacool · 27-09-2019 7:14pm

bankroll -174

stake tonight 44 points
2 pt patent 24,28,40
3x 10 pt singles on above

Have played the real draw as well for the "value"
There is one more draw that could offer even more value, as follows
First Draw Tuesday 24Sep2019 €190 million As the jackpot can increase no further, any excess funds which would normally go to the top tier will instead be diverted to the next highest tier in which there are winners.
Second Draw TONIGHT Friday 27Sep2019 €190 million Any additional funds continue rolling down to the highest tier in which there are winners. The prize fund for this tier is now likely to be even bigger than it was for the previous draw, as all of the excess jackpot money has been redistributed.
Third Draw 01Oct2019 (if tonight's rolls over) €190 million The same rules apply. As further funds are added to the next highest winning prize tier, there is the potential for many players to become multimillionaires without having to match all the numbers.
Fourth Draw 04Oct2019 (if we are still going) €190 million This is the penultimate draw at which the jackpot is allowed to remain at the cap. By this point, many millionaires will already have been made in the '5+1' prize tier.
Fifth Draw 08Oct2019 €190 million The jackpot has to be won in this draw - no further rollovers can occur. If no one matches all five numbers plus both Lucky Stars in this draw, the entire jackpot amount is shared between winners in the prize tier below.
This last one would be the one to re-mortgage the house for (kidding!!)

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-09-2019 8:09pm

Tonight's the night, we'll all be rich, rich I tell ya.
There are no super primary balls, just a handful of keen balls e.g. 18 & 34 would make a decent double, and legs11 for a star.
Ideally there will be a break from all the 4x balls of late.

5th RO draw as above (if it gets that far) does display above average 'EV' (expected value).
Some sort of spaced binomial coeffcients might be handy for pick-size reductions based on range groupings.

Spent a couple of hours during the week looking at bell curves AvB, NvP, HvC and so on, it's now or never.
Saying that only did 5lines when passing by the shop, luckily as the the website crashed on a recent check.

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-09-2019 9:39pm

Rollover (again): [ 24^ 37 41* 43 46* ] {2+8}

^ jacool * part-batch of non-recent all time low appearing, few of these also showed on tues, as ja' mentioned.

Only 4 tickets across the eurolands managed 5+1 (still a reasonable €4.6m each).
The single largest prize won (in Ire), was only about 3k.

In total there were 55,199,552 entries into this draw from all participating countries tonight.
3rd draw beckons on Tues.

Thus, Tue 8th Oct would be the rolldown event, assuming the 4x balls keep appearing for next 2 draws.

jacool · 29-09-2019 9:20pm

bankroll -174

stake tonight 44 points
2 pt patent 24,28,40
3x 10 pt singles on above

new bankroll pre-draw -218
results 24-37-41-43-46

hit the post with 24-41 landing and me waiting on 24-40 to put me in profit for the year ☹

nevertheless, winnings of 108 points, bring bankroll back to -110

roll on Tuesday

Note: These are the results from the last 10 draws
08 - 26 - 35 - 43 - 47
25 - 27 - 45 - 46 - 49
07 - 11 - 38 - 39 - 44
10 - 13 - 22 - 40 - 48
03 - 22 - 25 - 30 - 49
01 - 12 - 27 - 42 - 47
22 - 37 - 43 - 44 - 45
08 - 21 - 25 - 38 - 50
02 - 33 - 42 - 47 - 48
24 - 37 - 41 - 43 - 46
Anyone who had the foresight to see those 40’s coming would have done well.
Each draw for a treble from 41-50 inclusive would have cost 120 points a draw = that’s 1200 over the ten draws.
Four of them fell, so that’s a return of 6004 points in those last 5 weeks. A 400% return on investment, as the 40s contributed 40% of all numbers drawn.
There has been nothing like this imbalance forever on this draw.
I’m thinking it’s a ship that has definitely sailed!

The last 10 draws point to 27,43 and 47 (unsurprisingly)
The last 40 draws point to 13,42 and 47

4068ac1elhodqr · 01-10-2019 7:50pm

Surely there will be a break tonight, from the 40's?
Did a rare cheeky double/treble extract from the 6, 18, 20, 23, 34 array (not all groupings or possibilities obvs).

Also for this rare max load rollover event went to the shop again for a handful of lines, based on a big ole chart.
Komputer says this for tonight: 3Even&2Odd || Avg:f18 | Total:f91 {-34ofavg125} | BallRange:37 | & StarsAvg:7, so either 5&9 or 3&11.

A rollover(rolldown) into Tue 8th Oct would also be no bad thing for the 5+1 target.

sasta le · 01-10-2019 8:58pm

2 11 18 40 46 Stars 1 4

sasta le · 01-10-2019 9:01pm

Just found out you can do Euromillions online via Boylesports and bet365

Pogue eile · 02-10-2019 3:09pm

Definitely the funniest thread online, thank you guys!

sasta le · 02-10-2019 4:19pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

Definitely the funniest thread online, thank you guys!

Why?

Pogue eile · 02-10-2019 4:25pm

Google probability for a start

sasta le · 02-10-2019 5:41pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

Google probability for a start

That’s what they do they follow stats and probability here

Pogue eile · 03-10-2019 9:24am

sasta le wrote: »

That’s what they do they follow stats and probability here

So you are actually trying to tell me that the propability of a particular number coming out is affected by previous draws

I dont think they understand how probability works!

callaway92 · 03-10-2019 10:13am

Pogue eile wrote: »

So you are actually trying to tell me that the propability of a particular number coming out is affected by previous draws I dont think they understand how probability works!

I don't think you understand how data analytics works

Pogue eile · 03-10-2019 10:46am

callaway92 wrote: »

I don't think you understand how data analytics works

lol ok guys keep up the good work! Hilarious

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-10-2019 1:02pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

So you are actually trying to tell me that the propability of a particular number coming out is affected by previous draws I dont think they understand how probability works!

Is the 'law of large numbers', a work of fiction?

TBF, the P+ may be as little as 0.5 to perhaps max 5.0, still if you're going to have a go at any lotto (for light enterainment) may as well try to squeeze any (even very slight) advantage.

e.g. Never do the regular shop EMs ticket without a significant rollover, avoid low number weighting (<12/30). But don't miss the rare x5 rolldown coming (next Tues). Also aim for avg totals around 125, either 2/3 or 3/2 odd-v-evens, spread across min of 3 decades and so on...

Also worth a mention: for the reg UK lotto, only ever attempt this regular ticket on the (very regular) rolldown for a price advantage (500%) on low matches.

Even when doing the EM-hotpicks, (if convinient) source the best book odds, as there is often a difference. AFAIK, EM-HP (5main) is the only lotto in the world that (guarantees) 1m notes for 5 from 50 (no stars), at low outlay of 1.50.

Pogue eile · 03-10-2019 2:04pm

FWIW the only actual sense in the above post is in regard to the capped Euromillions jackpot which actually makes the draw somewhat +EV. Talk of average totals and odds v evens is complete and utter fiction.

In very basic english, each specific draw is completely independant of the previous draws and any previous results have absolutely zero affect on any subsequent draw, to believe otherwise is quite simply to not understand the principle of probability or to believe in some sort of conspiracy theory on how the 'random' draw is actually done.

Also to add in a wider sense that even if there were external factors that influenced each independent draw, the available sample size is far far too small - this is a completely moot point but their seems to be believers!

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-10-2019 3:01pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

FWIW the only actual sense in the above post is in regard to the capped Euromillions jackpot which actually makes the draw somewhat +EV. Talk of average totals and odds v evens is complete and utter fiction.

In your view.
Also EM EV is really only increased (dramtically {x10}) on the 5th and final RO assuming current conditions (4x of x2 or more) for 5+1star.

LOLN: Only 3 fall below expectancy on Ire Lotto, since conception.
EM: Totals follow bell curves for both main & stars circa 1,000 draws.

EM EvO: Pattern follows expectations (+/- 2%), for 3v2 or 2v3.
EM range: No data available (yet), expectation would be 3.5+ decade avg.

UKL: Most recent rolldown the EV stands, at factor of x5 and up to x10 on lower ranges. Value.

Pogue eile · 03-10-2019 3:04pm

Bradley Nervous Manufacturer wrote: »

In your view.
Also EM EV is really only increased (dramtically {x10}) on the 5th and final RO assuming current conditions (4x of x2 or more) for 5+1star.

LOLN: Only 3 fall below expectancy on Ire Lotto, since conception.
EM: Totals follow bell curves for both main & stars circa 1,000 draws.

EM EvO: Pattern follows expectations (+/- 2%), for 3v2 or 2v3.
EM range: No data available (yet), expectation would be 3.5+ decade avg.

UKL: Most recent rolldown the EV stands, at factor of x5 to 10 on lower ranges.

I wish you well Sir with all your new found wealth, fair play!

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-10-2019 3:07pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

I wish you well Sir with all your new found wealth, fair play!

+1,500 last month, but will accept your late congratulations none the less.

* Lotto(s) should only be considered as a form of light entertainment or a hobby with very mininal investment (typcially <0.5% net)

Pogue eile · 03-10-2019 3:10pm

I'll give you one thing, if they ever introduce a market for tallking through your hole and failing miserably at trying to sound smart you will truely be a champion!

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-10-2019 3:18pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

I'll give you one thing, if they ever introduce a market for tallking through your hole and failing miserably at trying to sound smart you will truely be a champion!

Keep the faith there, champ/chump.

...

Pogue eile · 03-10-2019 3:29pm

Bradley Nervous Manufacturer wrote: »

Keep the faith there, champ/chump.

...

Look I probably shouldnt have said anything and my last comment was certainly out of order. Each to their own and all that, and I genuinely hope you are making money.

inforfun · 03-10-2019 3:38pm

MOD

Please keep it civil

Oh... you kissed and made up already.

jacool · 04-10-2019 12:24pm

So here we are, for either the last, or second last, draw for €190,000,000.
Will be back later with my picks.

jacool · 04-10-2019 6:50pm

bankroll -218
going to move that to -250 with these three bets

15 point double 16,28
15 point double 20,47
2 point 4-timer 16,20,28,47

GLTA tonight. Kind of hoping it rolls over just this last time to allow me "invest the house" Tuesday night

4068ac1elhodqr · 04-10-2019 7:25pm

Like 47 but only with 23 (not 20), however favour 20 when combined with 23 for a simple pair of doubles.

Other than those two, have 5 lines of mixed euromill goodness, largely dependant on a few hot zones, and a 4x blockout (which is slightly due).

4068ac1elhodqr · 04-10-2019 9:21pm

Rollover!

Early reports are of x8 winners of the nb (5+1). Only 12 folks managed 5 main balls across Europopland. Blame it on the 4x.
[ 6 | 9 | 35 | 41 | 44 ] *6*9

gctest50 · 04-10-2019 9:30pm

[ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ] *6*7

has the same chance as anything else coming up though

jacool · 04-10-2019 10:53pm

Bradley Nervous Manufacturer wrote: »

Rollover!

Early reports are of x8 winners of the nb (5+1). Only 12 folks managed 5 main balls across Europopland. Blame it on the 4x.
[ 6 | 9 | 35 | 41 | 44 ] *6*9

One Irish person in the 12, and another in the 8.
50000 for the former and 2,500,000 for the latter. Not to be sneezed at.
Big play needed Tuesday night so!

4068ac1elhodqr · 04-10-2019 11:03pm

Would assume betwen 8-10 winners of 5+1 on Tues, however if these darn 4x balls take a break, could well be 15+.
4x balls x2 again tonight (should maybe be at avg if 1.0) previous weeks: 2/3/3/1/3/2/1/2/1

The last dozen pattern/distribution has been cat (really, it almost spells out CAT lol!)

Very heavy upper end weighting.

Roll on Tuesday, then it's back to simple double/trebles.

jacool · 08-10-2019 4:39pm

bankroll -250

For tonight I have looked at these from all angles 😊
Here are my wagers

Number 1: 10 point single 19 10 points
Number 2: 2 point patent 19,22,42 14 points
Number 3: 10 x 0.5 point doubles, 10 x 0.5 point trebles, and 5 x 0.5 point 4-timers from 09,17,29,37,44 stake 12.5 points
Number 4: 10 x 0.5 point doubles, 10 x 0.5 point trebles, and 5 x 0.5 point 4-timers from 07,13,19,28,42 stake 12.5 points
Number 5: 1 point treble 04,23,50

New bankroll -300 points ☹

GLTA tonight.

For the €190,000,000, I have just done some Quick Picks !

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-10-2019 6:50pm

Last of these regular shop tickets tonight for a long while (back to the cheaper better value hotpicks).

Essentially, focus will be on the high teens and low 30's numbers, again hoping for a blockade on the saturated 40's.

With these type of things, will be doing a mix of 3ev2o (and vice versa), below or around avg totals of 125, and generally 4 decades of spread.
Other than that due to the sheer odds (in 5+2), luck is likely the 97.5% main factor to winning the jackpot.

jacool · 08-10-2019 10:34pm

and so it ends
07-10-15-44-49 lucky stars 03-12
One person in the UK takes the lot, leaving the 4 guys with 5+1, who were looking at €38,000,000 each, now left with (a mere) €5m!

As for me, typical one single in both lines where a double would have given me the 50 points to cover my stake.
May as well just add these numbers to the stats, and see where we go.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-10-2019 10:54pm

Guess it's a good enough reason just to stick with the cheaper and easier to obtain hotpicks,
the 130m/1 odds were always somewhat stacked against winning large.

The ever recently present 4x balls (one a repeat of last draw) kept the winners low and sporadic.
Even the (exact) averaging total of 125, standard 3o2e mix, & reasonable 3 decade spread didn't greatly assist anyone.

jacool · 11-10-2019 6:52pm

Pre this bet bankroll -300 points
Staking tonight 56 points
Pre draw bankroll -356 points

bet 5 x 6pt singles
1 pt. Canadian (26b) 08 - 17 - 21 - 26 – 45
Won't even explain the logic(?) for this one, but here's hoping for a double minimum

4068ac1elhodqr · 11-10-2019 7:29pm

Just some hoticks (double-treble-quad) on expected zones, avoiding all high 4x type numbers (except 50 of course).
Essentially 16-20 group and 32-36. Both 17 & 26 are very favourable secondary choices.
Hot doubles could be 20&23, 32&34 or even a close treble from the 16-17-18-19-20 array.

Forgot lucky stars are irrelevant now, but had 10&11 circled earlier.

jacool · 11-10-2019 9:49pm

jacool wrote: »

Pre this bet bankroll -300 points
Staking tonight 56 points
Pre draw bankroll -356 points

bet 5 x 6pt singles
1 pt. Canadian (26b) 08 - 17 - 21 - 26 – 45
Won't even explain the logic(?) for this one, but here's hoping for a double minimum

Results in
02-14-19-42-45 with 05-06 lucky stars.

That's a single for me, 54 points return.
New bankroll, - 302 points.

The jackpot itself wasn't won, by the way.

jacool · 15-10-2019 6:55pm

Small stakes tonight.

10 point single #23
10 point single #29
8 point double #23&#29

Bankroll moved from -302 to -330.
GLTA

4068ac1elhodqr · 15-10-2019 7:33pm

A simplified string chart shows 20s (low, and one or two high teens) and also low-mid 30s tonight may be on the cards. Just did 3 quad lines, for 30k target.

32-36inc is highly favoured, 23 may indeed show up but only use this when coupled with 20 and/or 17.
16 or 18 also liked. Only low ball with secondary interest would be 5.

Still very keen on stars 10+11, so did a rare single regular ticket with this and a hot5.

4068ac1elhodqr · 16-10-2019 2:09pm

Bradley Nervous Manufacturer wrote: »

A simplified string chart shows 20s (low, and one or two high teens) and also low-mid 30s tonight may be on the cards. Just did 3 quad lines, for 30k target.
32-36inc is highly favoured,

Hit the crossbar with the quads (32,34 and a 28).

But luckily when up on a shopping trip, (before €fx rate brexit-deal-normalisation) did a 5 line mixed shop hotpick and landed another treble (2nd in 3mths) on these x3 cold balls. 34 was of special focus as had very low recent freq, coupled with t-90.

jacool · 18-10-2019 3:33pm

This morning was at -330
Now with this latest bet at -386, if this hits the -500 point it'll be a quiet Christmas at chez nous.
Staking tonight 56 points
bet 5 x 6pt singles
1 pt. Canadian (26b) on 06 12 21 30 39
The word logic doesn't even come into this one

GLTA.

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-10-2019 6:52pm

A few trebles again, two quads, one single regular euro as am still waiting for 10+11 star combo.
Tonight, expecting a shift from previous low 30's balls towards the 16-23 inc range for trebles.
Also chance of an one odd lowball e.g. 4-6 and either 40/50 for random token high ball in the mix.
Those 4x balls may well rest up after their recent surplus.
One of the two quads may well be 17,20,23,27.

Collecting last weeks treble from a border shopping triip is likely tricky enough,
have to show up at a designated postoffice, provide id, then guess it's cheque/IBAN/BIC/Swift
Will likely just get uncle bob to collect on 10% commission.
The only plus side is the fx rates are highly favourable 1.16 for conversion.

Online is probably ideal, or walkin bookies (dodgy enough) for quicker fulfilment.

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-10-2019 9:15pm

Nothing great for Friday, those dreaded 4x balls again tend to skew everything sideways.
Two of the lowest appearing recent balls showed up (18/22) but completely missed them,
marked up on chart but buried under some cold and hot cooling balls.

A re-run for Tues, leaning on odd numbers, 4x avoidance, no shop ticket with that star 11 coming out.

sasta le · 18-10-2019 9:28pm

Bradley Nervous Manufacturer wrote: »

A few trebles again, two quads, one single regular euro as am still waiting for 10+11 star combo.
Tonight, expecting a shift from previous low 30's balls towards the 16-23 inc range for trebles.
Also chance of an one odd lowball e.g. 4-6 and either 40/50 for random token high ball in the mix.
Those 4x balls may well rest up after their recent surplus.
One of the two quads may well be 17,20,23,27.

Collecting last weeks treble from a border shopping triip is likely tricky enough,
have to show up at a designated postoffice, provide id, then guess it's cheque/IBAN/BIC/Swift
Will likely just get uncle bob to collect on 10% commission.
The only plus side is the fx rates are highly favourable 1.16 for conversion.

Online is probably ideal, or walkin bookies (dodgy enough) for quicker fulfilment.

Bookies shop why dodgy?

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-10-2019 9:45pm

sasta le wrote: »

Bookies shop why dodgy?

i) The slightest error on the betslip will void it. ii) Any grey areas, leaves it to their discretion iii) In the past they have tried to short-change cash, or iv) attempt to dance around rules e.g. NRNB v) Won a single 20/1 on the G'Nat few years ago, the bossman behind the desk advised to put it in an inside jacket pocket and zip it up (while remaining at the desk area), and to be very cautious when exiting as they can't be held liable anywhere past the doorway.

Luckily don't visit them often, and the usually they just get thrown bank bags of loose change (disgruntledly accepted), that the banks would otherwise charge to recieve and re-count.

Euromillions 2019

Comments