Irish Champions Weekend

posturingpat · 13-09-2020 1:45pm

2.00 Gulliver was placed in this race last year off a higher mark. Seems to always run well here and plenty of pace on. He's a cracking bet.
2.35 Magic wand. Think she's the best of these by a fair bit, should be shorter.
If they go well I might have a bit on liberty beach in what looks an open race.

BagheeraBlue · 13-09-2020 1:46pm

Archie watsons in the hc sprint

nuckeythompson · 13-09-2020 1:50pm

Romantic proposal in the first.
100 eur I have on the nose. Fingers crossed

TheMilkyPirate · 13-09-2020 2:19pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Where was it franked man?

Sorry Tiger moth yesterday

RivetingRoger · 13-09-2020 2:51pm

Gwan Dusty ya boy ya

BagheeraBlue · 13-09-2020 2:59pm

What a ****ing moron on serpentine

RivetingRoger · 13-09-2020 3:06pm

Mogul outstanding
Power and pace
2f out on the bridle PCB just swerved thru them at absolute ease
Very good can SSR shut the **** up now about that imposter English King

BagheeraBlue · 13-09-2020 3:09pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Mogul outstanding
Power and pace
2f out on the bridle PCB just swerved thru them at absolute ease
Very good can SSR shut the **** up now about that imposter English King

Serpentine is clearly a better horse than mogul and I guarantee he will go close in the arc with proper tactics used

tryfix · 13-09-2020 3:16pm

BagheeraBlue wrote: »

Serpentine is clearly a better horse than mogul and I guarantee he will go close in the arc with proper tactics used

He was only out for a run today, O'Brien said before the race that they were only starting back with him and he'd improve for the run.

RivetingRoger · 13-09-2020 3:19pm

BagheeraBlue wrote: »

Serpentine is clearly a better horse than mogul and I guarantee he will go close in the arc with proper tactics used

Lmao

Right......

Rabbit Redux · 13-09-2020 3:41pm

3yo middle distance colts are poor overall this season. They keep beating each other. Nothing stands out among them.

tryfix · 13-09-2020 4:24pm

Wembley is the one I take from that National Stakes. He was ridden from the back and given an educational late run where he flew into 2nd or 3rd?. This lad will stay much better than the rest of the field.

Rabbit Redux · 13-09-2020 5:11pm

tryfix wrote: »

Wembley is the one I take from that National Stakes. He was ridden from the back and given an educational late run where he flew into 2nd or 3rd?. This lad will stay much better than the rest of the field.

Looks like he's crying out for a mile. Could be Aidan's one for the Racing Post Trophy or whatever they're calling it now.

New Era · 13-09-2020 5:15pm

What a day of flat racing. The best so far this year. Anthony van dyck beats Stradavarius in the arc trial in Longchamp. Mogul wins a group 1 and that is a big surprise, such a frustrating horse. The O Briens all three of them, have won a group 1 today.

But the big story is the return to the big time for the master of Rosewell, Dermot Weld. Group one wins in both Longchamp and the Curragh. In Irish flat racing hq, Search for a Song retains his St Leger crown. 12 months ago, there was a big charity race, for Pat Smullen, who is fighting cancer. I'm sure the long time first jockey to D K Weld, will get a massive kick where ever he is and we hope that the affable Offaly man, will pull through and make a full recovery.

posturingpat · 13-09-2020 5:42pm

Keats in the handicap is interesting. Showing glimpses he could be better than a handicapper. I'm going to have a bet in hope rather than expectation.

tryfix · 13-09-2020 8:03pm

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

3yo middle distance colts are poor overall this season. They keep beating each other. Nothing stands out among them.

It's hard to argue with that, but at the same time Mogul's race today was run in a much faster time than the 3yo fillies and older horses Arc Trials over the same distance. Then you had the not too brilliant Armory finishing a very close and fast finishing third in the Irish Champion Stakes yesterday and that was in the best of company.

I honestly think the shock Derby result and the hype over English King has screwed up people's judgement of this year's middle distance 3yo Colts.

The Mig · 13-09-2020 8:50pm

That Thunder Moon looks like some tool. Turn of foot was tremendous

13-09-2020 9:03pm

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

3yo middle distance colts are poor overall this season. They keep beating each other. Nothing stands out among them.

This has been spouted out each year for a while now. Maybe they’re a very decent bunch of middle distance colts who on their day could beat each other without there being a superstar amongst them. I’d hold judgement for another while with regards to Serpentine and also Mogul. Connections seem to hold both in very high regards

Slattsy · 13-09-2020 9:14pm

The Mig wrote: »

That Thunder Moon looks like some tool. Turn of foot was tremendous

Would have been interesting to see how Lucky
Vega would have went with a clear passage.

Rabbit Redux · 13-09-2020 11:38pm

11117 wrote: »

This has been spouted out each year for a while now. Maybe they’re a very decent bunch of middle distance colts who on their day could beat each other without there being a superstar amongst them. I’d hold judgement for another while with regards to Serpentine and also Mogul. Connections seem to hold both in very high regards

It's been spouted each year for a while now because there's more than a grain of truth to it. The last decent Derby winner was Golden Horn in 2015. He's the only 3yo colt to win the Arc since 2010. The last 3yo colt to win the King George was Nathaniel back in 2011. The fillies have fared better. Perhaps Mogul might finally live up to the hype, but so far he's been beaten in the King Edward VII, Derby and Great Voltigeur.
Serpentine's Derby form is looking suspect. Apart from the fact that he got an easy lead, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th have all been subsequently beaten.

smellyoldboot · 13-09-2020 11:47pm

Main thought of the weekend. I didn't back her, had only small stakes on Armory on the back of the style of the G2 win lto but Magical is a classy lady. All heart and remarkable consistency. I don't think Enable is what she was and the 3 yos are as poor as I've seen bar the other O Brien fully but she will be hamstrung by that dope Moore so I think this will be the year she finally gets the big one and lands the Arc. Much rather have Seamie in my corner.

TheMilkyPirate · 14-09-2020 8:32am

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Sorry Tiger moth yesterday

Have no idea how I got Serpentine mixed up with Santiago haha. What a clown, Ignore!

Slattsy · 14-09-2020 10:57am

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Have no idea how I got Serpentine mixed up with Santiago haha. What a clown, Ignore!

IAMAMORON · 14-09-2020 12:57pm

Rabbit Redux wrote: »

It's been spouted each year for a while now because there's more than a grain of truth to it. The last decent Derby winner was Golden Horn in 2015. He's the only 3yo colt to win the Arc since 2010. The last 3yo colt to win the King George was Nathaniel back in 2011. The fillies have fared better. Perhaps Mogul might finally live up to the hype, but so far he's been beaten in the King Edward VII, Derby and Great Voltigeur.
Serpentine's Derby form is looking suspect. Apart from the fact that he got an easy lead, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th have all been subsequently beaten.

I have my own notions about this particular phenomenon.

Have a look at the trends of fillies v's colts Arc wins over the last 40 yrs. I got beatings before for mentioning it, but something is up. It gets me scratching my head, I simply would love to know how the fillies suddenly started winning so many Arcs?

1980 Detroit 3 colt
1981 Gold River4 colt
1982 Akiyda 3 colt
1983 All Along4 colt
1984 Sagace 4 colt
1985 Rainbow Quest4 colt
1986 Dancing Brave3 colt
1987 Trempolino3 colt
1988 Tony Bin5 colt
1989 Carroll House4 colt
1990 Saumarez3 colt
1991 Suave Dancer3 colt
1992 Subotica4 colt
1993 Urban Sea4 filly
1994 Carnegie3 colt
1995 Lammtarra3 colt
1996 Helissio3 colt
1997 Peintre Celebre 3 colt
1998 Sagamix 3 colt
1999 Montjeu 3 colt
2000 Sinndar 3 colt
2001 Sakhee 4 colt
2002 Marienbard5 colt
2003 Dalakhani3 colt
2004 Bago 3 colt
2005 Hurricane Run colt
2006 Rail Link colt
2007 Dylan Thomas colt
2008 Zarkava 3 filly
2009 Sea the Stars colt
2010 Workforce colt
2011 Danedream filly
2012 Solemia 4 filly
2013 Treve 3 filly
2014 Treve 4 filly
2015 Golden Horn colt
2016 Found[f]4 filly
2017 Enable[f]3 filly
2018 Enable 4 filly
2019 Waldgeist 5 colt

RivetingRoger · 14-09-2020 1:21pm

Absolutely brilliant weekend of racing
Few thoughts
Magical is a queen
Best Irish filly since Found, Love has the potential but Magical just keeps doing it
Gaiyyath seems easy to get at if you have a horse that can stay with him
Strad won't run in the Arc surely
Irish sprinters not up to top quality
Mogul could yet be what we hoped. Very very impressed
Tom Marquand is top notch

The Tetrarch · 14-09-2020 3:14pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I have my own notions about this particular phenomenon.

Have a look at the trends of fillies v's colts Arc wins over the last 40 yrs. I got beatings before for mentioning it, but something is up. It gets me scratching my head, I simply would love to know how the fillies suddenly started winning so many Arcs?

1979 Three Troikas filly
1980 Detroit 3 colt filly
1981 Gold River4 colt filly
1982 Akiyda 3 colt filly
1983 All Along4 colt filly

1993 Urban Sea4 filly
2008 Zarkava 3 filly
2011 Danedream filly
2012 Solemia 4 filly
2013 Treve 3 filly
2014 Treve 4 filly
2016 Found[f]4 filly
2017 Enable[f]3 filly
2018 Enable 4 filly

I have the data for 1979 to 2014 so I might have a look.

My guess is a number of factors
1) good 3yo colts retired to stud quickly leaving seecond rank 4yo+ colts in the race
2) too busy season by UK and IRE horses, with French taking a summer break
3) UK and IRE trainers not realising the ground at Longchamp can be extremely fast or extremely heavy leaving horses in the race unsuited to the going.

The Tetrarch · 14-09-2020 3:21pm

Looking at my file that has all the finishing positions from 1920 to 2014 here are a few shocks

1957: Oroso 52s (15th of 24 in betting)
1962: Soltikoff 40s (12th of 24 in betting)
1967: Topyo 82s (23rd of 30 in betting)
1969: Levmoss 52s (14th of 24 in betting)
1975: Star Appeal 119s (24th of 24 in betting)
1981: Gold River 53s (13th of 24 in betting)
1987: Trempolino 20s (6th of 11 in betting)
1993: Urban Sea 37s (11th of 23 in betting)
2006: Rail Link 23.6 (6th of 8 in betting)
2011: Danedream 20s (10th of 16 in betting)
2012: Solemia 33s (13th of 18 in betting) - 75s on Betfair

IAMAMORON · 14-09-2020 3:30pm

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I have the data for 1979 to 2014 so I might have a look.

My guess is a number of factors
1) good 3yo colts retired to stud quickly leaving seecond rank 4yo+ colts in the race
2) too busy season by UK and IRE horses, with French taking a summer break
3) UK and IRE trainers not realising the ground at Longchamp can be extremely fast or extremely heavy leaving horses in the race unsuited to the going.

Apols for the mess up on the early 80's winners. But it only adds to my suspicions when I see another trend of 5 fillies suddenly winning over 5 years. When you stand back and look at what could be happening, I don't like it one bit. When you compare it to the trends of other mares and fillies historically it just gets a bit grating for me. There is are other examples I would not type for fear of getting a beating, especially around the early 80's. I must have a look out for similar trends in the US.

Agreed on all your points above btw.

1979 Three Troikas filly
1980 Detroit 3 filly
1981 Gold River4 filly
1982 Akiyda 3 filly
1983 All Along4 filly

tryfix · 15-09-2020 1:26am

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I have my own notions about this particular phenomenon.

Have a look at the trends of fillies v's colts Arc wins over the last 40 yrs. I got beatings before for mentioning it, but something is up. It gets me scratching my head, I simply would love to know how the fillies suddenly started winning so many Arcs?

1980 Detroit 3 colt
1981 Gold River4 colt
1982 Akiyda 3 colt
1983 All Along4 colt
1984 Sagace 4 colt
1985 Rainbow Quest4 colt
1986 Dancing Brave3 colt
1987 Trempolino3 colt
1988 Tony Bin5 colt
1989 Carroll House4 colt
1990 Saumarez3 colt
1991 Suave Dancer3 colt
1992 Subotica4 colt
1993 Urban Sea4 filly
1994 Carnegie3 colt
1995 Lammtarra3 colt
1996 Helissio3 colt
1997 Peintre Celebre 3 colt
1998 Sagamix 3 colt
1999 Montjeu 3 colt
2000 Sinndar 3 colt
2001 Sakhee 4 colt
2002 Marienbard5 colt
2003 Dalakhani3 colt
2004 Bago 3 colt
2005 Hurricane Run colt
2006 Rail Link colt
2007 Dylan Thomas colt
2008 Zarkava 3 filly
2009 Sea the Stars colt
2010 Workforce colt
2011 Danedream filly
2012 Solemia 4 filly
2013 Treve 3 filly
2014 Treve 4 filly
2015 Golden Horn colt
2016 Found[f]4 filly
2017 Enable[f]3 filly
2018 Enable 4 filly
2019 Waldgeist 5 colt

There's no mystery, note that the last French trained 3yo Colt to win the race was Rail Link in 2006. The Prix Du Jockey Club was shortened to 10 1/2 f in 2005. That year the 12f champ Hurricane Run couldn't catch the speedier Shamardal over the new shorter Derby trip but Hurricane Run won the Arc because he was a brilliant 12f horse.

In 2006 Rail Link followed the new 3yo colt's 12f path to the Arc by winning the 12f Grand Prix De Paris, since then the French 3yo Colts have gone from likely to win the Arc to hopeless over 12f.

The situation for the top 3yo 12f Colts is nearly as bad in the UK and Ireland. 3 Epsom Derby winners have won the Arc since the French gave up on taking 12f seriously, those 3 Epsom Derby winners were exceptional before they got to Longchamp. Sea The Stars a 139 rated superstar, Workforce a 128 rated Derby Winner and Golden Horn a 135 rated Champ.

None of those top drawer 3yos were trained by the Epsom Derby winning machine of Aidan O'Brien. He farms the race with future NH stallions while his top drawer Derby winners such as Australia and Camelot go fluting about by taking in the Irish Derby and a few 10f races to show they are fast enough for stud. Camelot went the vanity route of Irish Derby and the English Triple Crown, hardly a suitable prep for the Arc. They didn't want to contaminate Australia with another 12f race so they packed him off to stud without bothering with an Arc bid.

Love is the first 3yo I can think of that O'Brien has given a proper Arc prep.

For all the talk about the importance of the winning stick at Epsom, few winners break the 120 mark in winning it so it's now usually a shadow of its former self. 12f stamina is now a big drag to a young stallion's career.

Irish Champions Weekend

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