December 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

Jpmarn · 18-12-2019 10:35am

MIN at -3.8°C recorded at Moorepark on the 17th.

M.T. Cranium · 23-12-2019 1:12am

After three weeks ...

IMT on 5.6, third week averaged 4.2 (1.2 below normal).

MAX so far 14.2, MIN -3.8

PRC at 111% with the third week at 126% of normal.

SUN now a quite bright 129% of normal with the third week at 137% (820/600).

Bonus time approacheth, some chance of snow somewhere in the grid 24th - 25th, looking like a fairly large range for DUB might work out well (-2 to 9 could be the spread over the 24h).

Jpmarn · 25-12-2019 10:02pm

Bonus question so far Dublin Airport Min about 2°C Max 8°C with still a few hours to go. May get up to 9°C before midnight as the warm front approaches

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2019 2:32am

IMT was 5.4 through 24th and likely stayed similar after 25th. If the last six days averaged 9.0 (about as high as I could imagine it going) then the outcome would be 6.1 C. So a finish around 5.9 or 6.0 seems likely.

I think MAX could be under some pressure, MIN could have seen an adjustment earlier on the 25th (not sure yet) but if not will probably be set now at -3.8.

Tae laidir · 26-12-2019 11:52am

Dublin Airport had min of 0.7 and max of 7.7 yesterday.
Country min not exceeded.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2019 7:21pm

As reported above, 7.7 and 0.7 (no snow) for the bonus question. If you said no, three extra points. As there were quite a few good forecasts, I have shifted some points towards the top end, it was going to be awarded in eleven pairs from closest (least total error) to furthest (most total error) but instead we will go with various groups that are close in terms of total error, and this will shift the distribution a bit towards more points in general because the overall effort was quite good (our consensus as well as our leader Bsal, total errors of only 0.5, not too shabby).

So here goes on that scoring ... forecaster names with asterisks said yes to snow and do not increase their score by three as will 17/22.

10 points _ Bsal (8.0, 0.5) 0.5 err; Adam240610 (7.0, 1.0) 1.0 err; sryanbruen (7.1, 1.3) 1.2 err

__________ also Con Sensus (7.3, 0.8) 0.5 error -- we are awesome.

09 points _ Tazio (7.2, 1.5) 1.3 err, MrSkinner (7.0, 0.0) 1.4 err

__________ also Normal (7.7, 2.2) 1.5 error -- perfect on the max.

08 points _ two have 2.0 err ... Artane2002 (7.3, 2.3), Kindred Spirit (8.0, -1.0); waterways (6.9, 2.0) 2.1 err;

07 points _ Sunflower3 (9.2, 1.5) 2.3 err; Mickger844posts (7.4, -1.4) 2.4 err.

06 points _ Dacogawa* (9.7, 1.8) 3.1 err; Pauldry* (6.4, -1.2) 3.2 error.

05 points _ JPmarn (8.2, 3.5) 3.3 err; 200motels (6.9, -2.0) 3.5 err; Joe Public (6.9, -2.3) 3.8 error.

04 points _ DOCARCH* (5.8, -1.4) 4.0 error, Rikand* (6.0, -2.0) 4.4 err; Dasa29 (8.0, -3.5) 4.5 error.

03 points _ Tae laidir (9.7, 3.8) 5.1 error

02 points _ John Mac (11.7, 4.8) 8.1 error

01 point _ MTC (10.4, 6.4) 8.4 error (looks good for 26th though)

00 point _ BLIZZARD7* (2.7, -5.3) 11.0 error

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2019 8:50pm

It is starting to look very close at the finish for the "best 10 of 12" or Boards award, going into this month Tae laidir had a 29 point lead on Artane2002, 36 on waterways and 41 on Sunflower3.

Here are their forecasts, compared to my estimates of where things will end up.

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub (25th) __ snow?

(estimates by MTC) ___ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -3.8 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 7.7 _ 0.7 ___ no

Sunflower3 __________ 6.8 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 9.2 _ 1.5 ___ no

Artane2002 __________6.0 _ 14.6 _ -5.7 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 7.3 _ 2.3 ___ no

Tae laidir ____________5.9 _ 14.3 _ -6.7 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 9.7 _ 3.8 ___ no

waterways __________ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 098 ___ 6.9 _ 2.0 ___ no

So here are all the forecasts with provisional scoring estimates. This could change quite a bit. I think we are going to see a higher max than we have now with this very mild spell looming. And the rather mild MIN will call for some scoring boosts but these may be reduced as one forecast is right on (one other went too mild). This means that all scoring boosts are reduced by 50% unless we get a colder MIN which seems very unlikely.

Provisional scoring for December 2019

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Bonus____ TOTALS

MrSkinner ___________ 25 _ 10 _ 12*_ 15 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 83

waterways ___________20 _ 10 _ 18*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 82

Artane2002 __________25 _ 16 _ 06*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 13 ______ 81

mickger844posts ______24 _ 05 _ 20 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 79

___ NormaL _________ 19 _ 20 _ 02*_ 15 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 77

john mac __ (-2) _____ 18 _ 18 _ 14*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 05 _ 77-2= 75

sryanbruen __________ 16 _ 18 _ 04*_ 12 _ 10 ___ 13 ______ 73

Bsal ________________18 _ 00 _ 19*_ 14 _ 08 ___ 13 ______ 72

Pauldry _____________ 20 _ 15 _ 07*_ 14 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 72

____ Con Sensus _____ 24 _ 10 _ 05*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 10 ______ 72

200motels ___________21 _ 07 _ 13*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 08 ______ 70

Jpmarn _____________ 23 _ 12 _ 05*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 08 ______ 69

Tazio _______________ 20 _ 00 _ 13*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 67

Tae laidir ____________24 _ 13 _ 02*_ 10 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 65

Adam240610 _________17 _ 00 _ 12*_ 12 _ 07 ___ 13 ______ 61

Sunflower3 __________ 17 _ 10 _ 03*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 61

Joe Public ___________ 13 _ 13 _ 01*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 08 ______ 57

M.T. Cranium ________ 14 _ 17 _ 05*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 04 ______ 57

Dasa29 _____________ 25 _ 00 _ 03*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 56

Rikand ____ (-5) _____ 20 _ 10 _ 03*_ 12 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 56-5= 51

DOCARCH ___________ 17 _ 02 _ 05*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 49

Dacogawa __ (-1) _____23 _ 03 _ 00 __ 08 _ 07 ___ 06 _ 47-1=46

Kindred Spirit ________ 15 _ 00 _ 02*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 45

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ____04 _ 03 _ 00 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 00 _ 28-3= 25

==================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub (25th) __ snow?

M.T. Cranium ________ 7.1 _ 15.3 _ -5.8 _ 080 _ 110 __ 10.4 _ 6.4 ___ no

Sunflower3 __________ 6.8 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 9.2 _ 1.5 ___ no

DOCARCH ___________ 6.8 _ 13.2 _ -5.8 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 5.8 _-1.4 __ YES

Pauldry _____________ 6.5 _ 14.5 _ -5.6 _ 097 _ 103 ___ 6.4 _-1.2 __ YES!!!

Tazio _______________6.5 _ 12.2 _ -4.8 _ 095 _ 099 ___ 7.2 _ 1.5 ___ no

Jpmarn _____________ 6.2 _ 14.2 _ -5.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 8.2 _ 3.5 ___ no

mickger844posts ______6.1 _ 13.5 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 113 ___ 7.4 _-1.4 ___ No!!!

Artane2002 __________6.0 _ 14.6 _ -5.7 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 7.3 _ 2.3 ___ no

MrSkinner ___________ 6.0 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.0 _ 0.0 ___ no

Dasa29 _____________ 6.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 8.0 _-3.5 ___ no

Tae laidir ____________5.9 _ 14.3 _ -6.7 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 9.7 _ 3.8 ___ no

____ Con Sensus _____ 5.9 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 097 _ 100 ___ 7.3 _ 0.8 ___ no

Dacogawa __ (-1) ____ 5.8 _ 13.3 _ -9.4 _ 120 _ 091 ___ 9.7 _ 1.8 ___ YES!

200motels __________ 5.6 _ 13.7 _ -2.7 _ 102 _ 089 ___ 6.9 _-2.0 ___ no

waterways __________ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 098 ___ 6.9 _ 2.0 ___ no

Rikand ____ (-5) _____ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 6.0 _-2.0 __ Yes

___ NormaL _________ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 7.7 _ 2.2 ___ no

john mac __ (-2) _____ 5.3 _ 14.8 _ -4.7 _ 106 _ 101 ___11.7 _ 4.8 ___ no

Bsal ________________5.3 _ 12.0 _ -4.0 _ 097_ 097 ___ 8.0 _ 0.5 ___ no

adam240610 ________ 5.2 _ 13.0 _ -5.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 7.0 _ 1.0 ___ no

sryanbruen __________ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ -5.9 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 7.1 _ 1.3 ___ no

Kindred Spirit ________ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ -6.9 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 8.0 _-1.0 ___ no

Joe Public ___________ 4.8 _ 14.3 _ -7.9 _ 099 _ 119 ___ 6.9 _ -2.3 ___ no

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ____3.9 _ 13.3 _ -9.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 2.7 _-5.3 __ YES (Dublin A)

==================================

From the provisional scoring estimates, it appears that Artane2002 will fall 13 points short of catching Tae laidir and waterways 19 points. Sunflower3 will remain 45 points back. However, as all my estimates are probably rather flexible, it would appear Artane2002 has a chance, for example, if it proves drier and cloudier (but I have not left much room in those directions), he could narrow the gap by 8 points to 5. Where to find the other five? Probably not mathematically possible. So turning to waterways, her chances would rest on these improbables, a lack of warming of the IMT, a slightly lower MIN, and hitting PRC and SUN right on the numbers to gain a few points there.

It seems that Tae laidir has the inside track despite a couple of very good efforts from our second and third place contestants. We will know the result soon enough. One of the challengers would pretty much have to score 95-100 to overtake. Sunflower3 has no mathematical chance of moving up more than ten points from what I can see, and nobody else has a miracle finish route to the podium all of us being too far back already.

Tae laidir · 27-12-2019 10:36am

Range Anxiety!

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2019 9:23pm

So far the mild spell has not managed to break the pre-existing MAX, I think 14.0 at Phoenix Park on Saturday is the highest (MAX is 14.2). The IMT after 28th was 5.8 and after today probably will be 5.9. It may not reach 6.0 unless it gets a further boost on Monday.

I just realized that a new thread is needed, will be back with that in a few minutes.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2019 2:24am

After four weeks and most of one day where I forgot to update ...

IMT on 5.8, the past week 7.2 C which was 1.8 above average.

PRC has fallen off to 99% of normal with this past week at 65%.

SUN now 115% with the past week rather cloudy at 73.5%

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2020 12:55pm

IMT has finished on 6.0.

MAX stayed at 14.2 and MIN -3.8

PRC has checked in at 96%

SUN current estimate is still 105%

Some changes will be needed in that provisional scoring table, may get to that later today.

No significant changes to the implications for scoring for the leaders, the lower MAX will help Tae laidir to retain his lead. For the December scoring, MrSkinner would gain seven points (8-1) from the two changes needed to MAX and PRC, finishing with 90 rather than 83.

I will update the rest of the scoring later on today. In between sleep sessions at oh-dark-hundred here.

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2020 1:20pm

Updated provisional scoring for December 2019

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Bonus____ TOTALS

Confirmed or est values_6.0_14.2_-3.8_096_105 _ 7.7, 0.7 no

MrSkinner ___________ 25 _ 18 _ 12*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 12 ______90

waterways ___________20 _ 18 _ 18*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 11 ______89

mickger844posts ______24 _ 13 _ 20 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 88

Artane2002 __________25 _ 16 _ 06*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 13 ______ 83

____ Con Sensus _____ 24 _ 18 _ 05*_ 15 _ 09 ___ 10 ______ 81

Jpmarn _____________ 23 _ 20 _ 05*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 08 ______ 78

200motels ___________21 _ 15 _ 13*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 08 ______ 77

Pauldry _____________ 20 _ 17 _ 07*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 75

Bsal ________________18 _ 00 _ 19*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 13 ______ 73

Sunflower3 __________ 17 _ 18 _ 03*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 71

Adam240610 _________17 _ 08 _ 12*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 13 ______ 70

Tae laidir ____________24 _ 19 _ 02*_ 09 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 70

john mac __ (-2) _____ 18 _ 14 _ 14*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 05 _ 72-2= 70

Tazio _______________ 20 _ 00 _ 13*_ 15 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 69

___ NormaL _________ 19 _ 12 _ 02*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 68

sryanbruen __________ 16 _ 14 _ 04*_ 10 _ 10 ___ 13 ______ 67

Joe Public ___________ 13 _ 19 _ 01*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 08 ______ 62

Rikand ____ (-5) _____ 20 _ 18 _ 03*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 65-5= 60

DOCARCH ___________ 17 _ 10 _ 05*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 04 ______ 59

Dasa29 _____________ 25 _ 03 _ 03*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 57

Kindred Spirit ________ 15 _ 08 _ 02*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 55

Dacogawa __ (-1) _____23 _ 11 _ 00 __ 07 _ 07 ___ 06 _ 54-1=53

M.T. Cranium ________ 14 _ 09 _ 05*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 04 ______ 51

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ____04 _ 11 _ 00 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 00 _ 34-3= 31

==================================

Looks like most people gained from that re-set.

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2020 8:01am

I was out all day here dealing with some vehicle issues, and just realized that the MS would be published earlier, so I checked and found all is well with provisional scoring except that SUN turned out to be 115% of normal (average 1.7h a day, normal for the six locations an average of 1.47h), my tracking was probably okay but the weekly averages may fall somewhat so those really bright weeks at first added more to the totals. This means that I need to reset the scoring for just that one element and then (after forecast) will be able to work on the annual scoring final results.

So here's the slightly amended and final version of December scoring.

Updated and final scoring for December 2019

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Bonus____ TOTALS

Confirmed values _____ 6.0_14.2_-3.8_096_115 _ 7.7, 0.7 no

mickger844posts ______24 _ 13 _ 20 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 90

MrSkinner ___________ 25 _ 18 _ 12*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 12 ______88

waterways ___________20 _ 18 _ 18*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 11 ______87

Artane2002 __________25 _ 16 _ 06*_ 15 _ 06 ___ 13 ______ 81

____ Con Sensus _____ 24 _ 18 _ 05*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 10 ______ 79

Jpmarn _____________ 23 _ 20 _ 05*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 08 ______ 78

200motels ___________21 _ 15 _ 13*_ 13 _ 05 ___ 08 ______ 75

Pauldry _____________ 20 _ 17 _ 07*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 73

Adam240610 _________17 _ 08 _ 12*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 13 ______ 72

Bsal ________________18 _ 00 _ 19*_ 15 _ 06 ___ 13 ______ 71

Sunflower3 __________ 17 _ 18 _ 03*_ 15 _ 05 ___ 10 ______ 68

Tae laidir ____________24 _ 19 _ 02*_ 09 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 68

john mac __ (-2) _____ 18 _ 14 _ 14*_ 12 _ 07 ___ 05 _70-2= 68

Tazio _______________ 20 _ 00 _ 13*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 12 ______ 67

___ NormaL _________ 19 _ 12 _ 02*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 12 ______ 66

sryanbruen __________ 16 _ 14 _ 04*_ 10 _ 08 ___ 13 ______ 65

Joe Public ___________ 13 _ 19 _ 01*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 08 ______ 64

Rikand ____ (-5) _____ 20 _ 18 _ 03*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 67-5= 62

DOCARCH ___________ 17 _ 10 _ 05*_ 15 _ 06 ___ 04 ______ 57

Dasa29 _____________ 25 _ 03 _ 03*_ 10 _ 07 ___ 07 ______ 55

Kindred Spirit ________ 15 _ 08 _ 02*_ 10 _ 07 ___ 11 ______ 53

Dacogawa __ (-1) _____23 _ 11 _ 00 __ 07 _ 05 ___ 06 _ 52-1=51

M.T. Cranium ________ 14 _ 09 _ 05*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 04 ______ 51

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ____04 _ 11 _ 00 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 00 _ 34-3= 31

==================================

So congrats to mickger844posts, MrSkinner and waterways for three very good forecasts for December, Artane2002 also beating Con Sensus.

Watch for the annual scoring results soon.

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2020 9:29am

Updated annual scoring for 2019 (January to December) -- final contest results

Order is now best 10/12, last month's rank for 9/11 in brackets)
__ (rank for total score, last column, shown in brackets after total score.)

_(rank)_best 10/12_FORECASTER__Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov_Dec_2019 TOTAL

_ 01 (01) _ 711 _ Tae laidir _______ 70 _67 _83 _80 _58 _64 _83 _73 _63 _41 _60 _68 __810 (1)

_ 02 (02) _ 695 _ Artane2002 ______46 _60 _48 _52 _66 _73 _91 _69 _80 _36 _75 _81 __757 (4)

_ 03 (03) _ 694 _ waterways ______ 75 _19 _63 _70 _56 _84 _58 _69 _43 _65 _65 _87 __754 (5)

_ 04 (05) _ 684 _ mickger844posts__65 _47 _68 _33 _65 _69 _77 _78 _68 _49 _55 _90 __764 (3)

_(05)(06) _ 671 _ Con Sensus______61 _57 _72 _53 _57 _67 _74 _72 _65 _50 _67 _79 __774 (2)

_ 05 (04) _ 670 _ Sunflower3 ______77 _67 _67 _52 _60 _58 _79 _70 _69 _44 _55 _68 __766 (2)

_ 06 (06) _ 661 _ Bsal ____________47 _58 _77 _45 _56 _59 _77 _74 _66 _56 _67 _71 __753 (t6)

_ 07 (09) _ 660 _ Jpmarn _________ 69 _43 _60 _62 _58 _58 _50 _70 _75 _51 _79 _78 __753 (t6)

_t08 (t7) _ 653 _ sryanbruen ______ 41 _42 _56 _53 _86 _70 _82 _51 _67 _47 _76 _65 __736 (10)

_t08 (10) _ 653 _ Adam240610 ____ 63 _65 _59 _66 _59 _52 _72 _69 _67 _44 _61 _72 __749 (t8)

_t08 (12) _ 653 _ MrSkinner _______70 _52 _50 _64 _55 _64 _75 _69 _64 _46 _52 _88 __749 (t8)

_ 11 (t7) _ 641 _ Kindred Spirit ____ 58 _62 _77 _44 _49 _20 _71 _73 _70 _58 _70 _53 __705 (14)

_ 12 (11) _ 637 _ john mac ________49 _61 _63 _67 _39 _83 _62 _50 _70 _62 _51 _68 __725 (11)

_ 13 (16) _ 622 _ pauldry _________ 55 _62 _60 _51 _53 _56 _85 _68 _59 _39 _45 _73 __706 (t12)

_ 14 (15) _ 617 _ Joe Public _______ 62 _24 _44 _52 _60 _71 _56 _65 _58 _62 _67 _64 __685 (18)

_ 15 (18) _ 616 _ 200motels _______48 _68 _62 _60 _66 _49 _77 _42 _60 _38 _51 _75 __696 (16)

_ 16 (13) _ 615 _ dasa29 _________ 48 _46 _85 _45 _62 _53 _65 _67 _63 _57 _60 _55 __706 (t12)

_ 17 (14) _ 612 _ DOCARCH _______ 63 _68 _63 _48 _67 _49 _76 _57 _59 _41 _53 _57 __701 (15)

_ 18 (17) _ 599 _ M.T. Cranium _____45 _54 _59 _45 _57 _66 _69 _71 _39 _51 _76 _51 __683 (19)

_ 19 (21) _ 592 _ Rikand __________ 62 _59 _54 _56 _48 _64 _65 _62 _49 _59 _46 _62 __686 (17)

_(20)(22) _ 592 _ NormaL _________ 49 _60 _58 _48 _58 _57 _77 _51 _53 _63 _43 _66 __683 (t19)

_ 20 (19) _ 588 _ Rameire _________ 56 _77 _64 _48 _61 _48 _54 _70 _60 _37 _50 _--- __625 (20)

_ 21 (22) _ 565 _ Dacogawa ________41 _49 _71 _60 _41 _70 _61 _64 _--- _35 _57 _51 __600 (21)

_ 22 (23) _ 466 _ BLIZZARD7 _______18 _--- _33 _55 _32 _49 _57 _--- _67 _60 _64 _31 __466 (23)

_ --- (20) _ n/a _ JCX BXC _________ 65 _53 _66 _38 _66 _65 _66 _55 _58 _--- _--- _--- __532 (22)

_ --- (---) _ --- _ YanSno __________ 62 _--- _--- _44 _58 _38 _73 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- __275 (24)

_ --- (---) _____ Gonzo ___________--- _ --- _--- _--- _--- _64 _70 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- __134 (25)

_ --- (---) _____ Tazio ____________--- _44 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _ 67 __111 (26)

_ --- (---) _____ sdanseo __________45 _36 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- ___ 81

_ --- (---) _____ bazlers __________ --- _--- _50 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- ___ 50

_ --- (---) _____ derekon __________39 _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- _--- ___ 39
___________________________________________________________________________________

So, I hope everyone enjoyed the contest and congrats to Tae laidir who got out to an early lead in the spring and never looked back. Closest challengers (by order of final finish) Artane 2002, waterways, mickger844posts and Sunflower3, all gave it a great effort in the final month and can be proud of their efforts. Bsal and JPmarn were solid all year and moved up a bit at the end too. I think the forecasting was generally quite good and our consensus calls were as good as the professionals (whether that's saying much or not). Certainly when consensus in a contest beats normal by almost a hundred points, most of the crew are showing some skill in their forecasts.

Well it's on to 2020 and maybe this will be your time. Thanks for supporting the contest and keeping the atmosphere fun and lively.

Tae laidir · 04-01-2020 2:33pm

Thanks a million for organising the competition for 2019. You are an incredible, dedicated person, MT.
You have turned an interest into a passion.

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2020 12:29am

Okay, I'll come in off the ledge.

So I got to wondering, what has transpired in the contest over its entire life history? Here are the scores from all past years that I could find, my task made a lot easier as Tae laidir had posted 2012 to 2016 tables in the Dec 2017 thread.

After I post these, I will harvest some stats and create a ten-year leaderboard sort of a summary.

Final scoring from 2018

01 _ Pauldry__________ 73 _ 58 _ 89 _ 48 _ 76 _ 59 _ 78 _ 62 _ 66 _ 62 _ 65 _ 78 __ 814 __ 01 ____ 708

(02) Con Sensus ______ 73 _ 67 _ 69 _ 51 _ 71 _ 54 _ 84 _ 56 _ 59 _ 64 _ 81 _ 70 __ 779 __(02)____ 694

02 _ sryanbruen _______56 _ 71 _ 65 _ 60 _ 74 _ 46 _ 85 _ 65 _ 36 _ 66 _ 77 _ 64 __ 765 __ 02 ____ 683
03 _ DOCARCH ________63 _ 62 _ 75 _ 61 _ 68 _ 42 _ 69 _ 47 _ 67 _ 57 _ 80 _ 70 __ 761 __T03____ 672
04 _ waterways _______ 81 _ 34 _ 51 _ 73 _ 76 _ 46 _ 83 _ 64 _ 64 _ 61 _ 66 _ 46 __ 745 __T06____ 665
T05_ Rikand __________66 _ 64 _ 62 _ 61 _ 74 _ 65 _ 65 _ 51 _ 59 _ 75 _ 73 _ 30 __ 745 __T06____ 664
T05_ Joe Public _______ 35 _ 62 _ 48 _ 81 _ 61 _ 66 _ 63 _ 56 _ 67 _ 62 _ 67 _ 79 __ 747 __ 05 ____ 664
07 _ Jpmarn __________71 _ 61 _ 49 _ 57 _ 68 _ 60 _ 81 _ 51 _ 50 _ 67 _ 71 _ 75 __ 761 __T03____ 662
08 _ Tae laidir ________ 78 _ 53 _ 63 _ 47 _ 61 _ 52 _ 67 _ 69 _ --- _ 53 _ 87 _ 81 __ 711 __ 15 ____ 659

(T08) NormaL _________75 _ 52 _ 48 _ 71 _ 63 _ 31 _ 59 _ 85 _ 79 _ 56 _ 64 _ 55 __ 738 __(11)____ 659

09 _ Kindred Spirit _____59 _ 56 _ 55 _ 28 _ 66 _ 57 _ 77 _ 48 _ 47 _ 79 _ 87 _ 71 __ 730 __ 11 ____ 655
T10_ Rameire _________52 _ 56 _ 67 _ 49 _ 76 _ 44 _ 88 _ 67 _ 67 _ 66 _ 63 _ 45 __ 740 __ 10 ____ 651
T10_ M.T. Cranium _____60 _ 45 _ 52 _ 56 _ 86 _ 49 _ 77 _ 50 _ 75 _ 63 _ 75 _ 57 __ 745 __T06____ 651

T12_ JCXBXC _________ 34 _ 72 _ 54 _ 43 _ 77 _ 56 _ 78 _ 75 _ 41 _ 68 _ 76 _ 47 __ 721 __ 13 ____ 646
T12_ Dacogawa _______ 71 _ 67 _ 70 _ 67 _ 63 _ 52 _ 71 _ 50 _ 65 _ 63 _ 50 _ 54 __ 743 __ 09 ____ 646
14 _ mickger844posts __ 75 _ 77 _ 69 _ 42 _ 54 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 _ 50 _ 53 _ 82 _ 73 __ 727 __ 12 ____ 644
15 _ MrSkinner ________73 _ 64 _ 72 _ 42 _ 69 _ 36 _ 68 _ 66 _ 41 _ 54 _ 59 _ 71 __ 715 __ 14 ____ 638
16 _ sunflower3 _______ 68 _ 56 _ 63 _ 58 _ 57 _ 41 _ 65 _ 52 _ 64 _ 56 _ 74 _ 39 __ 693 __ 16 ____ 612
17 _ sdanseo _________ 45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 52 _ 57 _ 64 _ 65 _ --- _ 57 _ 58 _ 70 _ 67 __ 653 __ 21 ____ 608
18 _ BLIZZARD7 _______27 _ 73 _ 46 _ 70 _ 92 _ 52 _ 48 _ 46 _ 81 _ 55 _ 40 _ 34 __ 664 __ 19 ____ 605
19 _ Bsal _____________63 _ 49 _ 71 _ 38 _ 56 _ 34 _ 71 _ 44 _ 50 _ 46 _ 72 _ 75 __ 669 __ 17 ____ 597
T20_john mac _________48 _ 58 _ 58 _ 42 _ 63 _ 39 _ 67 _ 72 _ 51 _ 46 _ 68 _ 55 __ 667 __ 18 ____ 586
T20_200motels ________36 _ 65 _ 47 _ 49 _ 85 _ 32 _ 62 _ 37 _ 55 _ 64 _ 66 _ 56 __ 654 __ 20 ____ 586
22 _ dasa29 __________ 69 _ 40 _ 83 _ 43 _ 54 _ 35 _ 57 _ 41 _ 67 _ 41 _ 52 _ 43 __ 625 __ 22 ____ 550

23 _ Adam240610 _____ --- _ --- _ 56 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ 64 _ 72 _ 51 _ 69 _ 73 _ 82 __ 467 __ 23
24 _ Artane2002 _______--- _ --- _ ---_ 59 _ 57 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 50 _ 74 _ 69 __ 406 __ 24
25 _ Lumi ____________ 54 _ 54 _ 62 _ --- _ 77 _ 55 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- __ 302 __ 25

Annual scoring summary for 2017

01 _ 701 __ Con Sensus ____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 61 _ 71 _ 69 _ 68 _ 91 _ 66 ___ 821 ( 1)

01 _ 700 __ pauldry ________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 _ 64 _ 72 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 71 _ 79 ___ 816 ( 1)

02t_ 687 __ MrSkinner ______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 _ 58 _ 70 _ 69 _ 67 _ 77 _ 77 _ 65 ___ 778 ( 4)
02t_ 687 __ Tae laidir ______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 _ 68 _ 50 _ 64 _ 72 _ 45 _ 71 _ 84 ___ 782 ( 3)
04 _ 684 __ mickger844posts_74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 _ 65 _ 70 _ 72 _ 65 _ 80 _ 67 _ 51 ___ 789 ( 2)
05 _ 680 __ Dacogawa _____ 46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 _ 71 _ 90 _ 57 _ 63 _ 58 _ 80 _ 69 ___ 726 ( 9)

06 _ 666 __ John mac ______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 65 _ 47 _ 78 _ 73 ___ 768 ( 5)

07 _ 661 __ NormaL _______ 43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 _ 41 _ 66 _ 66 _ 51 _ 59 _ 76 _ 90 ___ 745 ( 9)

07 _ 660 __ Bsal __________ 49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 _ 69 _ 78 _ 81 _ 55 _ 58 _ 76 _ 49 ___ 758 ( 7)
08 _ 659 __ DOCARCH ______47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 _ 68 _ 77 _ 68 _ 48 _ 54 _ 72 _ 47 ___ 753 ( 8)
09 _ 657 __ Rameire _______ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 _ 70 _ 60 _ 75 _ 57 _ 73 _ 78 _ 50 ___ 759 ( 6)
10 _ 646 __ Lumi __________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 _ 72 _ --- _ 80 _ 40 _ 69 _ 61 _ 53 ___ 646 (20)

11 _ 640 __ 200motels _____ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 _ 65 _ 69 _ 68 _ 34 _ 69 _ 79 _ 54 ___ 709 (12)
12 _ 637 __ sunflower3 _____ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 _ 67 _ 42 _ 78 _ 61 _ 66 _ 76 _ 69 ___ 725 (10)
13 _ 627 __ Kindred Spirit ___54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 _ 64 _ 60 _ 75 _ 51 _ 39 _ 69 _ 65 ___ 715 (11)
14 _ 613 __ Dasa29 ________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 _ 59 _ 52 _ 56 _ 80 _ 59 _ 70 _ 54 ___ 707 (13)
15 _ 612 __ M.T. Cranium ___ 53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 _ 58 _ 77 _ 47 _ 32 _ 68 _ 79 _ 53 ___ 688 (16)
16 _ 611 __ sryanbruen _____43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 _ 70 _ 44 _ 69 _ 58 _ 68 _ 61 _ 43 ___ 693 (t14)
17 _ 609 __ Jpmarn ________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 _ 43 _ 51 _ 61 _ 55 _ 62 _ 42 _ 86 ___ 673 (17)
18 _ 607 __ Rikand ________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 _ 64 _ 46 _ 40 _ 56 _ 54 _ 75 _ 46 ___ 693 (t14)
19 _ 606 __ waterways _____ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 _ 54 _ 68 _ 59 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 53 ___ 667 (18)
21 _ 571 __ Joe Public ______36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 _ 56 _ 45 _ 68 _ 47 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 ___ 651 (19)

20 _ 603 _(best of occasionals)--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 68 _ 39 _ 56 _ 74 _ --- _ 47 _ 46 _ 89 _ 61 ___ 603 (21)

xxx sdanseo _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- _ 56 _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 81 _ 51 ___ 296
xxx JCX BXC _____________ --- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 61 ___ 231
xxx Elmer Blooker _________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 46 _ 72 _ --- ___ 118
xxx Tazio ________________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 70 _ --- ___ 117
xxx waterjohn ____________--- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 101
xxx Western Storm ________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 89 _ --- ____89
xxx Rougies _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 83 _ --- ____83
xxx Gonzo _______________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 74 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____74
xxx BLIZZARD7 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 31 ____31

(thanks to tae laidir who posted this at end of 2017, all of 2012 to 2016 in one post, I went back to check if there were any occasional scores not copied and added them in) ... I have reversed the order of his post to keep the chronological order from above going back through time.

Annual scoring Jan to Dec 2016

best 10 of 12 ___________________________________________________________ all months

rank/score_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov_Dec __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)

01 717 sunflower3 _____ 72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 _ 71 _ 42 _ 89 __ 802 (2)
02 702 MrSkinner______ 83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 _ 65 _ 65 _ 79 __ 818 (1)

03 698 _ Con Sensus ___ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 _ 77 _ 49 _ 61 __ 804 (2)

03 689 Lumi __________ 71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 _ 76 _ 33 _ 66 __ 768 (4)
04 672 Dacogawa ______ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 _ 74 _ 87 _ 51 __ 769 (3)
05 667 Tae laidir _______86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 _ 69 _ 38 _ 76 __ 751 (6)
06 663 waterways______ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 _ 57 _ 40 _ 41 __ 744 (8t)
07 655 Joe Public ______ 28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 _ 70 _ 60 _ 69 __ 732 (10)
08 653 M.T. Cranium ____46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 _ 63 _ 88 _ 62 __ 744 (8t)
09 651 Rameire ________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 _ 80 _ 50 _ 56 __ 756 (5)
10 649 sryanbruen _____ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 _ 72 _ 40 _ 41 __ 716 (12t)

16 649 Norma L _______ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 _ 64 _ 49 _ 81 __ 744 (8t)

11 647 mickger844posts_ 78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ 68 _ 36 _ 42 __ 683 (16)
12 646 DOCARCH ______ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 _ 71 _ 57 _ 58 __ 745 (7)
13 640 Pauldry_________53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 _ 60 _ 66 _ 68 __ 730 (11)
14 630 JD_____________69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 _ 62 _ 61 _ 55 __ 707 (15)
15 628 Jpmarn ________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 _ 58 _ 51 _ 60 __ 712 (14)
16 623 Rikand _________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 _ 71 _ 55 _ 53 __ 716 (12t)
17 615 Dasa29 ________ 66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 _ 78 _ 27 _ 33 __ 675 (18)
18 614 Bsal ___________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 _ 73 _ 23 _ 50 __ 682 (17)
19 610 200motels ______46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 _ 37 _ 41 _ 61 __ 669 (20)
20 601 John mac _______72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 _ 83 _ 38 _ 46 __ 675 (19)
21 590 kindredspirit ____ --- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 _ 66 _ 48 _ 44 __ 625 (21)

xx ___ lostinashford ___ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 389
xx ___ Schadenfreudia _ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 260
xx ___ Carnacalla _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 _ --- _ 52 _ --- _ 61 _ --- __ 218
xx ___ omicron _______ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 191
xx ___ Timmyboy _____ --- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 53
xx ___ Elmer Blooker __ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 51
xx ___ Blizzard7 _____________________________________________________27 ___ 27

Annual Scores 2015

FORECASTER ______ Jan_ Feb_Mar_ Apr_ May_Jun_ Jul_ Aug_Sep_Oct _Nov _ Dec __ 2015 Total (rank) _________________________________________________________________________ best 10/12 (rank)

Jpmarn ____________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 82 _ 67 _ 44 _ 48 _ 52 _ 70 _ 80 _ 31 __ 744 (3) ____ 669 (1)

Con Sensus ________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 58 _ 62 _ 55 _ 69 _ 60 _ 79 _ 70 _ 47 __ 769 (1) ____ 667 (2)

M.T. Cranium _______68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 _ 61 _ 59 _ 67 _ 68 _ 49 __ 724 (6) ____ 661 (2)
Lumi ______________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 78 _ 58 _ 74 _ 65 _ 49 __ 761 (1) ____ 659 (3)
MrSkinner _________ --- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 61 _ 78 _ 57 _ 71 _ 70 _ 52 __ 705 (12) __ 658 (4)
Rikand ____________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 54 _ 66 _ 51 _ 57 _ 57 _ 78 _ 49 _ 69 __ 745 (2) ___ 648 (5)
sunflower3 _________69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 54 _ 72 _ 63 _ 67 _ 78 _ 47 __ 737 (4) ___ 646 (6)
dasa29 ____________47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 57 _ 57 _ 70 _ 76 _ 64 _ 73 _ 61 _ 41 __ 727 (5) ___ 641 (7)
mickger844posts ____50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 45 _ 57 _ 28 _ 67 _ 69 _ 75 _ 55 _ 58 __ 708 (9t) ___635 (8)
Schadenfreudia _____ 61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 58 _ 36 _ 38 _ 75 _ 52 _ 73 _ 90 _ 45 __ 708 (9t) __ 634 (9)
rameire ___________ 55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 61 _ 53 _ 56 _ 79 _ 79 _ 80 _ 66 _ 37 __ 710 (8) ___ 633 (10)
Tae laidir __________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 68 _ 56 _ 74 _ 60 _ 61 _ 64 _ 75 _ 43 __ 708 (9t) __ 632 (11)
lostinashford _______ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 74 _ 62 _ 55 _ 52 _ 66 _ 76 _ 61 _ 61 __ 680 (17t) _ 628 (12)
Bsal ______________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 57 _ 71 _ 48 _ 55 _ 61 _ 77 _ 54 _ 44 __ 717 (7) ___625 (13)

Norma L (*) ________ 62 _ 70 _ 66 _ 73 _ 44 _ 52 _ 66 _ 55 _ 62 _ 69 _ 47 _ 29 __ 695 (13) _ 622 (14)

DOCARCH __________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 36 _ 65 _ 42 _ 52 _ 68 _ 83 _ 51 _ 36 __ 691 (15) __619 (t14)
dacogawa __________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 58 _ --- _ 62 _ 43 _ 46 _ 80 _ 80 _ 37 __ 656 (20) __619 (t14)
John mac __________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 50 _ 50 _ 69 _ 55 _ 52 _ 75 _ 64 _ 33 __ 694 (14) __611 (16)
jd ________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 31 _ 50 _ 53 _ 59 _ 44 _ 74 _ 63 _ 43 __ 680 (17t) _ 606 (t17)
omicron ____________41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 49 _ 36 _ 42 _ 55 _ 68 _ 71 _ 77 _ 59 __ 682 (16) _ 606 (t17)
Pauldry ____________ 51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 67 _ 61 _ 58 _ 60 _ 67 _ 59 _ 58 _ 46 __ 696 (13) _ 602 (19)
200motels __________30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 58 _ 40 _ 35 _ 49 _ 71 _ 56 _ 63 _ 51 __ 628 (22) _ 598 (20)
Joe Public __________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 39 _ 54 _ 69 _ 44 _ 43 _ 71 _ 66 _ 41 __ 674 (19) _ 594 (21)
kindredspirit ________ 63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 47 _ 60 _ 61 _ 56 _ --- _ 70 _ 56 _ 50 __ 631 (21) _ 584 (22)
Harps _____________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 45 _ 70 _ 45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 69 _ --- _ --- __ 577 (23) _ 577 (23)
Norma L (no *) ______ 53 _ 70 _ 56 _ 65 _ 37 _ 41 _ 29 _ 55 _ 69 _ 51 _ 38 _ 15 __ 579 (23) _ 535 (24)
waterways __________--- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 40 _ 53 _ 32 _ 63 _ 52 _ 38 _ --- _ 56 __ 520 (24) _ 520 (24)
sryanbruen _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ 65 _ 66 _ 53 ___184
delw __________________ 48 _ --- _ 61 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- __ 109
blue5000 _______________45 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- ___ 45
BLIZZARD7 _____________--- _ 31 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- ___ 31

* In this first year for NormaL, scores were calculated both contest-style (main entry) and without additions for minimum progression (a raw score for the normal parameters, not to be compared to contest scores). That is what the (no *) means above. Sadly I did not continue this practice in later years.

Having found the starting point for sryanbruen (Oct 2015) and adding in his three scores, I then went back to Aug 2015 and found a few occasional scores from earlier 2015 and added them (above).

Annual Scores 2014

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D ___ TOTAL __ Best 10/12 (rank)

01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 _ 73 _ 75 _ 67 _ 79__844____740 (1)
01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 _ 55 _ 65 _ 53 _ 77__791___ 689 (1)
02 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 _ --- _ 49 _ 71_ 81__737____688 (2)
06 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 _ 26 _ 76 _ 55 _ 57__711____651 (3)
05 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 _ 71 _ 62 _ 69 _ 72__713____643 (4)
03 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 _ 38 _ 72 _ 41 _ 88 __720___ 641 (5)
08 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 _ 69 _ 77 _ 66 _ 60__694____628 (6)
07 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 _ 36 _ 46 _ 80 _ 60__700____626 (7)
09 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 _ 58 _ 47 _ 34 _ 77__690____616 (8)
04 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 _ 69 _ 62 _ 75 _ 52__715___ 615 (9)
10 _jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 _ 68 _ 76 _ 57 _ 52__689____612 (10)
11 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 _ 35 _ 72 _ 72 _ 77 __666____599 (11)
18 _jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 _ 69 _ 51 _ 50 _ 80 __596____596 (12)
14 _waterways ______60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 _ 63 _ 50 _ 48 _ 77 __662____595 (13)
17 _okla ___________59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 _ 57 _ 56 _ 71 _ 63 __638____589 (14)
12 _DOCARCH ______ 54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 _ 51 _ 57 _ 41 _ 73 __664____585 (15)
13 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 _ 62 _ 65 _ 71 _ 51 __663____577 (16)
15 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 _ 49 _ 65 _ 55 _ 51 __648____569 (17)
17 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 _ 59 _ 71 _ 65 _ 51 __637____566 (18)
20 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 _ 57 _ 59 _ 41 _ 50 __590____554 (19)
18 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 _ 58 _ 45 _ 61 _ 71 __596____544 (20)
21 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 _ 30 _ 60 _ 52 _ 47 __579____523 (21)
23 _delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 35 _ 26 _ 63 __351____351 (22)
22 _Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __375
23 _traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __351
25 _The Zohan ______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 _ 42 _ 82 _ 62 _ 54 _ --- __342

27 _talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __255
26 _sunflower3______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ 24 _ 65 _ 67 _ 52 _ 62 __310
28 _nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __236
29 _homolumo ______ 58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __163
30 _Robxxx7 ________--- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- __136

31 _seafields ________40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- __123
32 _melanoma ______ 39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __104
33 _yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___94
34 _downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___64
35 _dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___55

36 _YouTookMyName_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 48 ___48
37 _octo __________ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___47
38 _rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___46
39 _drdidlittle ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___40
40 _billcarson ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___39
41 _aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- ___28

Annual scoring report 2013

rank/
best 10 _ Forecaster _______ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D __ Total
01 608 Con Sensus _______75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 _ 76 _ 44 _ 55 _ 58 _ 59 _ 54 _ 40 __ 668 (2)

01 602 Tae laidir ________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 _ 55 _ 59 _ 47 _ 65 _ 75 _ 43 _ 47 __ 683 (1)
02 579 harps ___________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 _ 70 _ 42 _ 57 _ 61 _ 67 _ 32 _ 35 __ 646 (2)
03 566 kindredspirit ______66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 _ 66 _ 51 _ 65 _ 60 _ 55 _ 55 _ 41 __ 641 (3)
04 560 dasa29___________35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 _ 68 _ 21 _ 42 _ 59 _ 31 _ 50 _ 29 __ 610 (5)
05 557 omicron _________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 _ 67 _ --- _ 72 _ 45 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 __ 579 (13)
06 553 Bsal _____________54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 _ 75 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 47 _ 38 _ 62 __ 625 (4)
07 545 Pauldry __________59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 _ 57 _ 32 _ 42 _ 51 _ 72 _ 14 _ 66 __ 591 (10t)
08 541 jpmarn __________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 _ 59 _ 65 _ 36 _ 54 _ 61 _ 45 _ 84 __ 599 (6)
08 541 traecy.1 _________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 _ 56 _ 50 _ 33 _ 60 _ 62 _ 67 _ 44 __ 591 (10t)
10 527 DOCARCH________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 _ 70 _ 60 _ 39 _ 56 _ 60 _ 37 _ 40 __ 593 (8t)
11 525 mickger844posts __ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 _ 49 _ 66 _ 39 _ 60 _ 67 _ 46 _ 33 __ 593 (8t)
12 524 Jerry Seinfeld_____ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 _ 74 _ 24 _ 44 _ 59 _ 43 _ --- _ --- __ 524 (21)
13 522 200motels________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 _ 25 _ 33 _ 46 _ 67 _ 58 _ 44 _ 55 __ 580 (12)
14 521 rameire__________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 _ 80 _ 18 _ 65 _ 39 _ 47 _ 45 _ 43 __ 568 (15)
14 521 John mac_________50 _ 23 _ 21 _ --- _ 64 _ 94 _ 31 _ 60 _ 50 _ 44 _ 65 _ 40 __ 542 (20)
16 518 nilhg ____________44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 _ 51 _ 76 _ 54 _ 37 _ 45 _ 46 _ 61 __ 596 (7)
17 510 talkabout ________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 _ 67 _ 43 _ 43 _ 54 _ 30 _ 68 _ 37 __ 571 (14)
18 500 Joe Public ________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 _ 44 _ 62 _ 55 _ 57 _ 49 _ 56 _ 23 __ 544 (19)
19 499 homolumo _______ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 _ 67 _ 27 _ 35 _ 73 _ 35 _ --- _ 11 __ 510 (22)
20 496 Rikand __________ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 _ 75 _ 38 _ 42 _ 48 _ 38 _ 65 _ 33 __ 547 (17t)
21 490 dacogawa________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 _ 51 _ 40 _ 44 _ 76 _ 37 _ 54 _ 29 __ 554 (16)
22 486 okla ____________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 _ 54 _ 38 _ 17 _ --- _ 69 _ 45 _ 33 __ 503 (23)
22 486 M.T. Cranium _____ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 _ 48 _ 52 _ 40 _ 55 _ 54 _ 65 _ 30 __ 547 (17t)
24 480 waterways _______ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 _ 43 _ 14 _ --- _ 73 _ 51 _ 36 _ 43 __ 494 (24)
25 472 Strasser _________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- _ 43 _ 28 _ 72 _ 38 _ 44 _ 58 _ --- __ 472 (28)
26 464 jd ______________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 _ 56 _ 31 _ 47 _ 59 _ 43 _ -- _ 30 __ 478 (27)
27 463 lostinashford _____ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 _ 73 _ 50 _ 38 _ 57 _ 35 _ 41 _ --- __ 490 (25)
28 444 Seafields ________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 _ 56 _ 36 _ 44 _ 46 _ 26 _ 52 _ 43 __ 486 (26)
29 437 snowstreams______ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 _ 50 _ 28 _ 46 _ 46 _ 66 _ 16 _ 25 __ 453 (29)
30 407 delw_____________46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 _ -- _ 26 _ 21 _ 47 _ 13 _ 23 _ --- __ 407 (31)
31 394 H2UMrsRobinson __ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 _ 10 _ 32 _ 25 _ 46 _ 57 _ 48 _ 26 __ 426 (30)
32 279 cherryghost ______ 71 _ 58 _ 21 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 42 _ 38 _ 49 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 279 (32)

Three or four entries __

Hammer Archer _________ 63 _ 60 _ --- _ 46 _ 46 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- __ 215 (33)
Bejubby _______________ -- _ 46 _ 44 _ 40 _ 25 _ -- _ --- _ -- __ 21 _ -- _ -- _ --- __ 176 (34)
Rebelbrowser ___________ 52 _ 14 _ 33 _ 55 _ -- _ -- _ --- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --- _ --- ___ 154 (36)
dexter647 ______________ -- _ 32 _ --- _ 63 _ -- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ 54 _ -- _ -- _ --- ___ 149 (37)
Gonzo _________________________ 30 _ -- _ 52 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ 53 _ -- _ -- _ 39 ___ 174 (35)
Rocky Bay _____________ 43 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ 37 _ 20 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 100 (40)

____________________________________________

Two entries

jambofc 71 (Jan), 54 (Feb) ____ 125 (38)
nabber 69 (Feb) 38 (Mar) _____ 107 (39)
Quixelles 64 (June) 19 (July) ____83
Keith96 52 (July), 18 (Aug) _____70
MiNdGaM3 30 (Jan) 32 (Feb) ____62
clintondaly 50 (June) 10 (July) __ 60

(one entry)

Deep Easterly 69 (Jan)
Danno 65 (Jan)
howlinwolf 59 (Jan)
Tazio 58 (June)
E. Fudd 55 (Feb)
Deank 53 (Feb)
"plan comes together" 53 (Jan)
singers 53 (Aug)
baraca 50 (Feb)
blackbird 49 (Aug)
cogsy 46 (Dec)
NIALL_D 35 (Jan)
Lumi 35 (Dec)
BEASTERLY 34 (Jan)
musicmental85 .. 32 (Nov)
Gothwalk 26 (Dec)
Pauloconn 10 (Nov)

Annual Scoring Table 2012

(MTC)
Rank*. Forecaster ... J .. F ..M .. A .. M ..J .. J .. A ..S .. O .. N ..D .. Yr Total .. Contest (rank)

1 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64..77..41..46..48..87..79 ..... 692 ... 605 (1)
2 .. Lumi ................62..45..28..43..44..57..54..60..66..62..77..72 ..... 670 ... 599 (2)
3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49..69..39..73..30..74..64 ..... 654 ... 585 (3)
5 .. John mac .........62..53..26..53..46..42..49..68..42..48..79..76 ..... 644 ... 576 (4)
4 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43..64..53..53..58..53..65 ..... 648 ... 564 (5)
7 .. Hammer Archer .52..41..22..35..39..51..69..52..72..55..64..58 ..... 610 ... 553 (6)

7 .. Con Sensus ......58..28..31..46..48..41..54..50..58..58..84..54 ..... 610 ... 551 (7)

10. jambofc ............26..34..22..60..59..40..56..69..56..33..74..67 ..... 596 ... 548 (7)
9 .. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42..18..59..47..40..57..74 ..... 598 ... 547 (8)
8 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75..32..43..49..44..78..45 ..... 601 ... 538 (9)
6 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47..54..45..52..41..58..71 ..... 616 ... 537 (10-t)
13. pauldry .............61..48..45..31..49..56..49..22..39..61..61..68 ..... 590 ... 537 (10-t)
12. kindredspirit ......60..48..39..22..50..35..41..40..42..61..80..75 ..... 593 ... 536 (12)
14. Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30..13..51..36..66..58..55..51..80..44 ..... 578 ... 535 (13)
11. waterways ........58..29..53..33..47..49..52..50..55..44..59..66 ..... 595 ... 533 (14-t)
15. MiNdGaM3 ........33..11..31..45..70..56..64..43..53..56..71..42 ..... 575 ... 533 (14-t)
20. snowstreams .....37..10..28..37..51..48..49..49..67..52..83..56 ..... 567 ... 529 (16)
18. Harps ...............51..25..18..35..47..35..36..73..57..51..78..64 ..... 570 ... 527 (17-t)
16. DOCARCH .........20..27..32..40..41..52..47..65..66..41..61..82 ..... 574 ... 527 (17-t)
18. mickger844posts 62..26..38..27..40..46..62..45..46..77..48..53 ..... 570 ... 517 (19)
17. jd .................... 50..28..47..44..53..35..44..48..64..53..71..35 ..... 572 ... 509 (20)
26. Danno .............. 48..20..---..44..50..45..35..39..51..69..65..60 .....526 ... 506 (21)
22. delw ................ 57..57..15..25..39..49..52..41..36..42..65..63 ..... 541 ... 501 (22)
21. homolumo .........48..25..24..67..58..19..32..48..55..40..67..59 ..... 542 ... 499 (23)
33. lostinashford ..... --..--.. 37..34..40..52..59..40..59..44..67..57 ..... 489 ... 489 (24)
25. M.T. Cranium ....34..41..21..55..65..46..47..18..39..44..57..60 ..... 527 ... 488 (25)
28. cherryghost ......56..51..11..12..44..35..36..53..59..47..65..40 ..... 509 ... 486 (26)
23. okla .................57..21..31..44..51..33..55..63..46..33..62..37 ..... 537 ... 481 (27)
27. SeaFields .........33..15..57..44..36..35..63..49..29..32..58..66 ..... 517 ... 473 (28)
30. Joe Public .........42..21..08..53..66..30..38..47..30..50..75..40 ..... 500 ... 471 (29)
24. traecy1 ............47..36..33..34..47..52..40..44..40..44..63..56 ..... 536 ... 469 (30)
35. Strasser ...........---..20..52..38..29..16..47..43..46..66..61..66 ..... 484 ... 468 (31)
32. dacogawa ........ 50..14..17..37..59..19..48..48..54..55..50..41 ..... 492 ... 461 (32)
37. talkabout ..........42..26..20..05..58..32..41..66..--..44..75..56 ..... 465 ... 460 (33)
31. 200motels ........56..69..18..31..40..26..53..40..25..24..64..52 ..... 498 ... 456 (34)
29. Iancar29 ..........33..19..26..45..52..32..25..66..39..61..73..30 ..... 501 ... 455 (35)
36. NIALL D ............29..20..28..44..42..32..--..62..63..47..70..36 ..... 473 ... 453 (36)
34. dasa29 ............ 44..30..16..44..33..29..50..42..58..37..64..41 ..... 488 ... 443 (37)
39. redsunset .........34..11..12..60..41..48..33..16..---..---..40..20 ..... 315 ... 315 (38)
38. K_1 .................40..25..71..22..33..59..42..42..---..---..---..--- ..... 334

xx. bsal .................--,,,--,,--,,,--,,,--,,,--,,..45..49..56..28..72..58 ... ...308

Final 2011 Contest Results
________________________________

Rank ... Forecaster ....... J ... F ... M ... A ... M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D .... Tot ... Avg .... Comp (10mo)

1 ... nilhg ................. 41 . 55 . 54 . 57 . 63 . 35 . 68 . 41 . 44 . 53 . 46 . 79 .. 636 (1) .. 53.0 (1) ... 560
2 ... kindredspirit ....... 65 . 21 . 51 . 50 . 46 . 33 . 60 . 41 . 50 . 55 . 46 . 65 .. 583 (3) .. 48.6 (4) ... 529
3 ... Jerry Seinfeld ..... 59 . 30 . 57 . 32 . 43 . 24 . 53 . 65 . 53 . 44 . 41 . 74 .. 575 (4) .. 47.9 (6) ... 521
4 ... mickger844posts . 51 . 41 . 48 . 78 . 53 . 28 . 57 . 40 . 41 . 40 . 41 . 66 .. 584 (2) .. 48.7 (3) ... 516
4 ... Pauldry .............. 37 . 47 . 47 . 20 . 69 . 12 . 59 . 65 . 35 . 45 . 47 . 65 .. 548 (9) .. 45.7 (13).. 516
6 ... lumi .................. 40 . 26 . 43 . 43 . 53 . 47 . 54 . 60 . 42 . 52 . 37 . 78 .. 575 (4) .. 47.9 (9) .. 512
6 ... DeepEasterly ...... 42 . 52 . 32 . 25 . 68 . 49 . 36 . 60 . 51 . 52 . 49 . 53 .. 569 (6) .. 47.4 (7) ... 512
6 ... DOCARCH .......... 31 . 25 . 52 . 43 . 49 . 51 . 41 . 41 . 50 . 61 . 44 . 80 .. 568 (7) .. 47.3 (8) .. 512
9 ... John mac .......... 44 . 40 . 27 . 14 . 51 . 50 . 66 . 46 . 51 . 43 . 47 . 64 .. 543 (11) .. 45.3 (16) .. 502
10 .. Su Campu ......... 39 . 29 . 61 . 40 . 41 . 57 . 51 . 33 . 59 . 50 . 48 . 49 .. 557 (8) ... 46.4 (11) ... 495
11 .. Sponge Bob ...... 23 . 36 . 41 . 46 . 41 . 31 . 61 . 66 . 38 . 51 . 46 . 65 .. 545 (10) .. 45.4 (15) .. 491
12 .. Strasser ........... 47 . 51 . 35 . 29 . -- . 15 . 41 . 60 . 42 . 40 . 45 . 88 .. 503 (xx) .. 45.7 (13) .. 488

(13) .. Con Sensus ..... 42 . 21 . 44 . 32 . 52 . 27 . 53 . 50 . 43 . 45 . 44 . 83 .. 536 (13) .. 44.7(17) .. 488

13 .. M.T. Cranium ..... 37 . 16 . 66 . 76 . 45 . 30 . 52 . 52 . 48 . 25 . 26 . 51 .. 524 (14) .. 43.7 (19) .. 483
14 .. Tae laidir .......... 52 . 25 . 32 . 17 . 61 . 15 . 65 . 64 . 34 . 24 . 41 . 84 .. 514 (15) .. 42.8 (20) .. 482
15 .. waterways ....... 37 . 39 . 57 . 38 . 49 . 47 . 74 . 48 . 36 . 32 . 25 . 55 .. 537 (12) ... 44.8 (17) .. 480
16 .. dacogawa ........ 38 . 24 . 57 . 40 . 59 . 45 . 31 . 34 . 50 . 49 . 44 . 61 .. 532 (13) .. 44.3 (18) .. 477
17 .. thetonynator .... 41 . 12 . 40 . 55 . 61 . 22 . 42 . 54 . 41 . 32 . 43 . 66 .. 509 (16) .. 42.4 (21) .. 475
18 .. MiNdGaM3 ......... -- . -- . 55 . 53 . 40 . 23 . 42 . 59 . 55 . 29 . 56 . 51 .. 463 (xx) .. 46.3 (12) .. 463
19 .. 200motels ........ 58 . 33 . 57 . 46 . 59 . 22 . 21 . 42 . 30 . 43 . 34 . 48 .. 493 (18) .. 41.1 (25) .. 450
19 .. Harps ............. 46 . 27 . 40 . 07 . 58 . 35 . 51 . 33 . 42 . 39 . 25 . 79 .. 482 (21) .. 40.2 (28) .. 450
21 .. talkabout ........ 40 . 35 . 53 . 24 . 54 . 42 . 43 . 43 . 32 . 33 . 34 . 72 .. 505 (17) .. 42.1 (22) .. 449
22 .. hellboy99 ........ 29 . 21 . 59 . 28 . 52 . 37 . 53 . 41 . 47 . 47 . 24 . 49 .. 487 (19) .. 40.6 (26) .. 442
23 .. Danno ............. 32 . 31 . 29 . 18 . 39 . 04 . 46 . 49 . 50 . 47 . 61 . 57.. 463 (27) .. 38.6 (32) .. 441
24 .. fizzycyst ......... 27 . 20 . 34 . 62 . 49 . 36 . 59 . 41 . 32 . 23 . 53 . 47 .. 483 (20) .. 40.3 (27) .. 440
25 .. dasa29 ............ 20 . 26 . 50 . 20 . 63 . 35 . 41 . 55 . 42 . 45 . 41 . 41 .. 479 (23) .. 39.9 (30) .. 439
26 .. jambofc ........... 42 . 47 . -- . 25 . 48 . 21 . 57 . 34 . 35 . 34 . 51 . 64 .. 458 (xx) .. 41.6 (23) .. 437
27 .. 4sheets ............ 24 . -- . 44 . 26 . 39 . 28 . 67 . 42 . 44 . 40 . 54 . 50.. 458 (xx) .. 41.5 (24) .. 434
28 .. rameire ............ 30 . 27 . 39 . 38 . 32 . 31 . 62 . 53 . 44 . 28 . 25 . 72 .. 481 (22) .. 40.1 (29) .. 429
28 .. homolumo ......... 31 . 18 . 45 . 20 . 59 . 29 . 53 . 44 . 39 . 38 . 26 . 65 .. 467 (24) .. 38.9 (31) .. 429
30 .. Joe Public ......... 33 . 28 . 49 . 66 . 40 . 19 . 48 . 19 . 48 . 23 . 41 . 47 .. 461 (25) .. 38.4 (33) .. 423
31 .. jd ................... 23 . 13 . 41 . 28 . 55 . 17 . 48 . 33 . 39 . 54 . 40 . 50 .. 441 (26) .. 36.7 (34) .. 411
32 .. SeaFields.......... 51 . 26 . 24 . 26 . 53 . 12 . 50 . 51 . 21 . 24 . 19 . 56 .. 413 (27) .. 34.4 (40) .. 382
33 .. Rebelbrowser .... 21 . 34 . 50 . 30 . 53 . 17 . 45 . 29 . -- . 21 . 43 . 47 .. 390 (xx) .. 35.5 (37) .. 373
34 .. H2UMrsRobinson. 46 . 40 . 16 . 16 . -- . 37 . 20 . 26 . 55 . 52 . 27 . 53 .. 388 (xx) .. 35.3 (38) .. 372
35 .. nacho libre ....... 43 . 11 . 28 . 21 . 29 . 32 . 49 . -- . 36 . -- . 40 . 71 .. 360 (xx) .. 36.0 (36) .. 360
36 .. redsunset ........ 24 . 10 . 22 . 34 . 51 . 15 . 28 . 29 . 47 . 64 . 36 . -- .. 360 (xx) .. 32.7 (42) .. 350
37 .. Snowstreams .... -- . 21 . -- . 44 . 38 . 17 . 41 . 44 . 40 . 27 . 17 . 58 .. 347 (xx) .. 34.7 (39) .. 347

Unranked for annual contest, to show rank for average
_______________________________________________

xx ....ch750536........... -- . -- . -- . -- .. 45 . 49 . 38 . 69 . 32 . -- . -- . -- .... 233 .......... 46.6 (10)
xx ... NIALL_D............. -- .. 24 . 36 . -- . -- . -- . 51 . -- . 36 . 38 . 18 . 53 .. 256 ......... 36.6 (34)
xx ... okla ................. -- .. -- .. -- .. -- .. -- . -- .. 56 . 23 . 45 . 45 . 50 . 71.. 290 .......... 48.3 (5)
xx .. TheInquisitor .... 33 . 27 . 16 . 18 . 53 . 50 . 36 . 40 . 31 . --- . -- . --- .. 304 ......... 33.8 (41)
xx .. Traecy1 ........... -- . --- . --- . --- . --- . --- . --- .. 60 . 53 . 50 . 35 . 67 .. 265 ........ 53.0 (2)

Boards.ie weather contests -- Final results -- 2010

________________________________________________________

FCSTR ............... J .. F .. M .. A .. M .. J .. J .. A .. S .. O .. N .. D ... best 10 .. total ... avg .... rankings

Danno ............. 45 . 51 . 42 . 39 . 47 . 59 . 72 . 64 . 55 . 60 . 25 . 54 .. 549 ... 613(12) .. 51.1 ... 1 . 1 . 1
Joe Public ........ 77 . 39 . 46 . 83 . 30 . 62 . 58 . 36 . 35 . 33 . 40 . 29 .. 509 ... 568(12) .. 49.0 ... 2 . 2 . 2
Jerry Seinfeld ... --- . 57 . 52 . 74 . 22 . 48 . 71 . 55 . 50 . 21 . 35 . 38 .. 502 ... 523(11) .. 47.5 ... 3 --- 4
M.T. Cranium .... 67 . 09 . 50 . 44 . 53 . 51 . 26 . 34 . 30 . 47 . 64 . 48 .. 488 ... 523(12) .. 43.6 ... 4 . 4 . 7
DOCARCH ......... 62 . 28 . 55 . 64 . 60 . 33 . 33 . 55 . 41 . 51 . 27 . 32 .. 486 ... 541(12) .. 45.1 ... 5 . 3 . 6
thetonynator .... --- . --- . 59 . 65 . 42 . 53 . 55 . 55 . 36 . 52 . 28 . 37 .. 482 ... 482(10) ... 48.2 ... 6 --- 3
Nilhg ............... 33 . 13 . 64 . 50 . 76 . 32 . 51 . 42 . 35 . 44 . 27 . 33 .. 460 ... 500(12) .. 41.7 ... 7 . 6 12
Su Campu ....... 38 . 35 . 40 . 54 . 72 . 50 . 31 . 38 . 42 . 53 . 21 . 29 .. 454 ... 503(12) .. 41.9 ... 8 . 5 . 9

Con Sensus ..... 35 . 39 . 58 . 53 . 46 . 49 . 49 . 39 . 52 . 34 . 36 . 13 .. 456... 503(12) .. 41.9 ... 8 . 5 . 9

Kindred Spirit ... 47 . 28 . 59 . 57 . 42 . 49 . 38 . 47 . 42 . 42 . 18 . 16 .. 450 ... 485(12) .. 40.4 ... 9 . 8 . 11
Strasser .......... 47 . 34 . 42 . 63 . 38 . 27 . 63 . 58 . 32 . 31 . 33 . 17 .. 441 ... 485(12) .. 40.4 ... 10 . 8 11
Redsunset ....... 32 . 37 . 71 . 45 . 62 . 33 . 65 . 32 . 29 . 27 . 25 . 30 .. 436 ... 488(12) .. 40.7 ... 11 . 7 10
Hellboy99 ........ 19 . 38 . 45 . 47 . 66 . 39 . 34 . 30 . 31 . 55 . 45 . 16 .. 430 ... 465(12) .. 38.8 ... 12 10 16
JD .................. 45 . 37 . 42 . 46 . 38 . 41 . 44 . 09 . 51 . 42 . 36 . 26 .. 422 ... 457(12) ... 38.1 ... 13 11 17
Nacho Libre ..... 37 . 15 . 49 . 49 . 40 . 52 . 38 . 32 . 58 . 28 . 38 . 20 .. 421 ... 456(12) .. 38.0 ... 14 12 18
Fionagus ......... 29 . 21 . 39 . 38 . 48 . 43 . 41 . 72 . 41 . 35 . 34 . 15 .. 420 ... 456(12) .. 38.0 ... 15 12 18
Rebelbrowser .... -- . 23 . 63 . 46 . --- . 41 . 41 . 34 . 50 . 38 . 27 . 39 .. 402 ... 402(10) .. 40.2 ... 16 -- 13
Seafields .......... -- . 08 . 16 . 46 . 48 . 62 . 31 . 07 . 34 . 72 . 48 . 20 .. 385 ... 392(11) .. 35.6 ... 17 -- 22
200motels ....... 31 . 27 . 49 . 38 . 33 . 52 . 57 . 22 . 42 . 16 . 26 . 24 .. 379 ... 417(12) .. 34.8 ... 18 14 23
Johnmac .......... -- . 10 . 33 . 40 . 58 . 50 . 23 . 43 . 29 . 56 . 34 . 07 .. 375 ... 383(11) ... 34.8 ... 19 -- 23
Dasa29 ........... 09 . 31 . 46 . 51 . 48 . 42 . 40 . 25 . 31 . 16 . 44 . 11 .. 374 ... 394(12) .. 32.8 ... 20 15 27
Deep Easterly... 23 . 14 . 22 . 37 . 54 . 42 . 23 . 37 . 58 . -- . 18 . 28 .. 342 ... 356(11) ... 32.4 ... 21 -- 28

(only ranked for average)

waterways .......... -- . -- . -- . 44 . -- . -- . 54 . 32 . 50 . 53 . --- . 43 .. 276/6 ... 46.0 ........... -- -- 5
Mickger844posts . -- . -- . -- . -- . 63 . 58 . 45 . 36 . 43 . 51 . 38 . 15 .. 349/8 ... 43.6 ........... -- -- 7
The Inquisitor ..... -- . 34 . 43 . -- . -- . -- . -- . 49 . 38 . 30 . 39 . 48 .. 281/7 ... 40.1 ........... -- -- 13
Pauldry ............. -- . -- . -- . 37 . 42 . 35 . 50 . 54 . 72 . 18 . 44 . 06 .. 358/9 ... 39.8 .......... -- -- 14
Sponge Bob ........ -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- .. -- .. -- .. 67 . 31 . 35 . 25 .. 158/4 .... 39.5 .......... -- -- 15
Talkabout .......... -- . -- . 56 . 39 . 41 . 56 . 25 . -- . 36 . 41 . 38 . 06 .. 338/9 ... 37.6 .......... -- -- 20
Gothwalk ............ -- . -- . -- . -- . -- .. -- .. -- .. -- .. 42 . 41 . 18 . 45 .. 146/4 .... 36.5 ......... -- -- 21
WolfeIRE ............ 30 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 37 . 35 . 67 . 18 . 46 . 10 .. 243/7 .... 34.7 ........... -- -- 25
Cherryghost ....... 20 . 37 . 33 . 59 . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- .. -- .. 36 . 19 .. 204/6 .... 34.0 .......... -- -- 26
Homolumo ........... -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . -- . 38 . 22 . 28 . 34 . 57 . 08 .. 187/6 ... 31.1 ........... -- -- 29
Jambofc .............. -- . -- . -- .. -- . -- . -- . -- . -- .. -- .. 33 . 40 . 17 ... 90/3 .... 30.0 ........... -- -- 30

Final results for 2009

(the contest had a different format in 2009, forecasters did not have to guess PRC or SUN, more random bonus type questions, and I think I inherited the format mid-year and changed it for 2010).

1. (1.) Danno ...............751 (12) ... 62.6
2. (5.) JD ....................653 (11) ... 59.4
3. (4.) Dasa 29 ........... 712 (12) ... 59.3
4. (3.) Nacho Libre ...... 708 (12) ... 59.0
5. (2.) Strasser ........... 644 (11) ... 58.5
** ** Joe Public ....... 229 (4) ... 57.3
6. (9.) Hellboy99......... 558 (10) ... 55.8
7. (6.) Kindred Spirit ... 658 (12) ... 54.8
8. (6.) Nilhg ............... 652 (12) ... 54.3
9. (8.) Docarch ........... 636 (12) ... 53.0
10 (11) MTCranium ..... 565 (12) ... 47.1
10 (10) 200 Motels ......444 (10) ... 44.4

(numbers in brackets after total scores are months entered)

===================================

So those are all the raw scores for 11 years of contests going back to 2009. Watch for some sense to be made of all this (or perhaps not) ...

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2020 1:30am

Honey, I crashed the internet ...

So first up is the obvious first item of business, winners from every year we've had this contest. This table does not show the position of Con Sensus (we've had enough of his bragging). I show the top three for each year. To make for an easier fit, mickger844posts is shortened to mickger in this table.

Highest category scores of all time are in red highlights. They were both in 2016.

YEAR ___ Boards Award (best 10 of 12) ____________________"MTC Award" (total score)

2019 ___ Tae laidir (711) Artane 2002 (695) waterways (694) __ Tae laidir (810) sunflower3 (766) mickger (765)

2018 ___ Pauldry (708) sryanbruen (683) DOCARCH (672) _____ Pauldry (814) sryanbruen (765) DOCARCH, JPmarn (761)

2017 ___ Pauldry (700) MrSkinner (t2- 687), tae laidir (t2 - 687)_ Pauldry (816) mickger (789) MrSkinner (782)

2016 ___ sunflower3 (717) MrSkinner (702) Lumi (689) ________ MrSkinner (818) sunflower3 (802) dacogawa (769)

2015 ___ JPmarn (669) M.T. Cranium (661) Lumi (659) ________ Lumi (761) Rikand (745) JPmarn (744)

2014 ___ Rikand (689) harps (688) Bsal (651) ________________Rikand (791) harps*(737) kindred spirit (720)

2013 ___ Tae laidir (602) harps (579) kindred spirit (566) ______ Tae laidir (683) harps (646) kindred spirit (641)

2012 ___ Sponge Bob (605) Lumi (599) Jerry Seinfeld (585) ____ Sponge Bob (692) Lumi (670) Jerry Seinfeld (654)

2011 ___ nilhg (560) kindred spirit (529) Jerry Seinfeld (521) ___ nilhg (636) mickger (584) kindred spirit (583)

2010 ___ Danno (549) Joe Public (509) Jerry Seinfeld** (502) ___Danno (613) Joe Public (568) DOCARCH (541)

2009^^ Danno avg 62.6, JD avg 59.4, dasa29 avg 59.3 _______ Danno (751) dasa29 (712) Nacho libre (708)
____________________________________________________________________

*In 2014 harps managed second place total score off eleven entries.
** In 2010 Jerry Seinfeld played 11 of 12 which is why he missed out on second or third in the total scoring.

^^ In 2009 we did not track best ten of twelve and the main contest award was by average score as shown.
===============================================================

From the above it can be seen that Tae laidir and Pauldry have both won the main (Boards) award twice, TL this past year and 2013, Pauldry in 2017 and 2018. Danno won twice in 2009 and 2010. Tae laidir added a T-2 in the Boards award for 2017.

All of the same is true for the secondary (total score) MTC award.

A few other names show up more than once, including Lumi, mickger844posts, kindred spirit, harps, MrSkinner and Jerry Seinfeld.

By the way, it's not that scoring has improved, I don't think we had minimum progression before 2014.

When I get a bit more time I may try to work out the average scores over whatever period of time regulars now (and stalwarts of the past) have played the contest. At first glance, these have played every month since 2009.

Dasa29, DOCARCH and M.T. Cranium; kindred spirit has missed only two. 200motels also joined later in 2009 and has played almost all the contests from 2010 to 2019.

Will check into that further. I am aware of some name changes that make participation longer than it might appear, but would not be too sure I have noted all of them. You can tell what user names people have now in some cases by looking at quoted comments from them back in the deep past, the quotes contain their old user names and the posts quoted have their current ones.

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2020 7:26am

I was thinking about how to tabulate overall results, the problem being that the longer people have been in the contest, the more unboosted scores they might have as a percentage (clearly the scores got higher after 2014), so the best comparison I think is rank at end of each year. That's also an easier number to calculate. So with that in mind, here's how the long-term participants compare in terms of average rank (not counting partial years where rank might be affected by missing several months). Also I have only compared ranks in the best 10/12 portion. If you played earlier years under a different username and you want to share, let us know (I know of three name changes by long-time participants and have blended their scores or could do so for past entrants who left before now, but I won't mention any for privacy reasons), Tae laidir joined in 2011 but I see no sign of participation in 2010. Mickger844posts evidently joined during 2010 but didn't have ten months that year, but was scoring at the same or higher pace as his long-term average in that partial first year (with 50% more points added to his eight months in 2010, total score was similar to 3rd-4th place). Waterways started about the same time, showing more improvement year to year than most of us, average rank recently has been much higher than shown in this table.

FORECASTER ___ YEARS (with 10-12 contests) ___ Average Rank

Active now

Con Sensus _________10 ___________________ 4.3

MrSkinner __________ 5 ____________________6.2
Tae laidir ___________9 ____________________ 6.4
Sunflower3 _________ 5 ____________________ 8.0
Pauldry ____________ 9 ____________________ 8.4
Mickger844posts _____9 ____________________ 8.9
sryanbruen _________ 4 ____________________ 9.0
JPmarn ____________ 7 ____________________ 9.3
bsal _______________7 ____________________10.3
kindred spirit _______11 ___________________ 10.4
DOCARCH _________ 11 ___________________ 10.5
Rikand ____________ 8 ____________________12.1
John mac __________10 ___________________ 12.9
Rameire ___________ 9 ____________________13.2
waterways _________ 9 ____________________13.5
M.T. Cranium ______ 11 ___________________ 13.5
dacogawa __________9 ____________________14.0
Joe Public _________ 10 ___________________ 16.2
dasa29 ___________ 11 ___________________ 16.5
200motels _________11 ___________________ 17.5

Legends of the past

Jerry Seinfeld (2010-13)_4 ___________________ 5.25 (3, 3, 3, 12)
Lumi (2010-12,15-17) __6 ___________________ 6.5
nilhg (2009-13) _______ 5 ___________________ 8.0
Danno (2009-12) ______4 ___________________12.0
harps (2011-15) ______ 5 ___________________12.6
Strasser (2009-13) ____ 5 ___________________16.6
JD (2009-16) _________8 ___________________17.4

_________________________________________________

There may be a bit of distortion in the fact that 2011 to 2013 had larger turnouts and so if you had a bad year there, your average might be inflated a bit. Con Sensus was only 13th in 2011 !

There may be one or two fairly active people from the past who I could add to this list, but I think it's fairly complete now for those with four or more years. Omicron had a run of three years with an average rank of 8.67. (edit) Found another regular entrant for about 3.5 years 2012-15, lostinashford, they were in the contest in higher volume years when 20th was like 10th is now and averaged about 17th.

mrskinner · 06-01-2020 3:55pm

Well done Tae laidir on your forecasting and many thank yous to MTC...

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2020 2:47am

Best monthly forecasts (all scores 83+ appear here) 2010 to 2019

FORECASTER ________ Month _____ Score

John mac ___________06 2013 _____ 94

BLIZZARD7 _________ 05 2018 _____ 92

Con Sensus _________ 03 2014 _____ 92

Artane2002 _________07 2019 _____ 91

Con Sensus _________11 2017 _____ 91

mickger844posts _____12 2019 _____ 90

dacogawa ___________07 2017 _____ 90

NormaL ____________ 12 2017 _____ 90

mickger844posts _____ 02 2015 _____ 90

Schadenfreudia ______ 11 2015 _____ 90

Pauldry _____________03 2018 _____ 89

Western Storm _______11 2017 _____ 89

Lumi, dacogawa ______03 2016 _____ 89

___ mickger844posts _ 03 2016 _____ 89

sunflower3 __________12 2016 _____ 89

MrSkinner __________ 12 2019 _____ 88

Rameire ____________07 2018 _____ 88

M.T. Cranium ________11 2016 _____ 88

Kindred spirit ________12 2014 _____ 88

Strasser ____________12 2011 _____ 88

waterways __________12 2019 _____ 87

Kindred spirit ________11 2018 _____ 87

Joe Public ___________05 2017 _____ 87

Sponge Bob _________ 11 2012 _____ 87

M.T. Cranium ________05 2018 _____ 86

Tae laidir ___________ 01 2016 _____ 86

M.T. Cranium ________04 2015 _____ 86

dasa29 _____________03 2019 _____ 85

Pauldry ____________ 07 2019 _____ 85

200motels __________05 2018 _____ 85

sryanbruen _________ 07 2018 _____ 85

NormaL ____________ 08 2018 _____ 85

MrSkinner __________ 03 2015 _____ 85

Tae laidir ___________ 02 2014 _____ 85

omicron ____________03 2014 _____ 85

waterways __________ 06 2019 _____ 84

rikand ______________01 2015 _____ 84

JPmarn _____________12 2013 _____ 84

Con Sensus _________ 11 2012 _____ 84

Tae laidir ___________ 12 2011 _____ 84

Tae laidir ___________ 03,07 2019 ___83

John mac ___________ 06 2019 _____ 83

dasa29 _____________ 03 2018 _____ 83

Rougies _____________11 2017 _____ 83

John mac ___________ 10 2016 _____ 83

DOCARCH ___________10 2015 _____ 83

Con Sensus _________ 04 2014 _____ 83

DOCARCH __________ 10 2013 _____ 83

(the highest score in 2010 was 83, Joe Public had that one in April 2010).

note: high scores for other regulars, 82 Dec 2018 for Adam240610, 81 Aug 2017 for Bsal.

John mac · 08-01-2020 10:23am

at least i have one claim to fame ..

December 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

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