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Turning colder?.....
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On track for quite a cold period of weather for the second half of October.
I think the most likely outcome is frosty nights and heavy wintry showers. Remember inland convection is still likely this time of year so it's not like a Northerly in the depths of Winter leading to dry conditions inland and with very cold air travelling over a comparatively mild sea some beefy showers are likely. I suspect at low levels it will be rain, hail and sleet with higher ground getting the first snow of the season. Still things could get colder or maybe not quite as cold as is being forecast for the time of year so watch this space!:)0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »
:D:D Thanks Nacho!!!
The perfect winter scenario
Looks like the London boroughs are also preparing for a 'white-out' winter so it MUST be true;)0 -
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I'm not convinced that come next week we'll have the setup the charts are painting now, but I hope I'm wrong. We need a retrogressive pattern to make anything out of that northerly, or else it's just going to slide on by us to the east.
We need it though, as sea surface temperatures in the higher latitudes are way above normal. A sustained northerly outbreak will help get us back to an even playing field before the start of winter proper.
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nacho libre wrote: »so bascially what your saying is if the sea surface temperatures don't cool down soon, we'll likely lose out in any marginal situations this winter, and cold airmasses from the north and northwest over Ireland maybe be modified quicker as well??
Well warmer sea temperatures won't help, put it that way, except maybe in the formation of polar lows. All too many times were conditions on the wrong side of marginal last winter, so we'll need all the help we can get. Cold seas extending further south will reduce the chance of arctic airmasses modifying before reaching us.
But it's very early days yet, so nothing to worry about, but the earlier those seas cool, the colder they can get before the end of the winter. But this time last year it was the reverse - cold around Greenland and fairly normal to slightly above to our north. We're starting off at a disadvantage this year, so we've a lot of ground to make up.
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On the plus side, warmer seas to our north this winter would prove to be very helpful in increasing instability substantially which in turn increases the chance of stronger and more volitile polar troughing, which Su has already alluded too. I think the problem last year is that because sea temps were relatively low, there was very little instability created when arctic airmasses plunged down. Of course, some coastal areas did fairly well, but it is astonishing that during one of the coldest winters in living memory, coupled with below average MSLP values for much of the winter, that very little snow fell over the country as a whole; and may I add, very little weather in general.
Warmer than average sea temps would increase the chance of big weather developing. Last winter taught me a good lesson, in that cold winters are not necessarily interesting one's weatherwise. I know most posters on here are snow hunters, so am I, but at this stage, all I want to see is some proper big weather.
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ECM not so keen to strengthen the northerly flow in its 00z run. Brief flirt with cold uppers over the north of Ireland but coincides with intensifying surface divergence which would kill off any chance of major shower development:
144hrs:
168hrs:
UKMO 00z run agrees.
144hrs chart:
Exciting stuff..0 -
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Sorry if this has already been posted:
A hat trick of cold winters for the UK?
In Britain between 1991 and 2007 most winters were mild, but the last two years have brought a change, with 2009/10 bringing the coldest conditions since 1979 to many parts of the country. So a cold winter this year would mean the third in succession. Is it likely? As ever, long range forecasting is about identifying broad patterns and trends, and given this TheWeatherOutlook view is that a colder than average conditions are likely this winter. However, the pattern which develops may be different this time, with the cold tending to come more from the east or south east rather than the north east. In this scenario the heaviest snow often occurs in the boundary zone between the cold dry air from the east, and the mild and moist air trying to push in from the Atlantic, but the cold can be most persistent in eastern regions. Our full and final winter forecast will be issued in late November as usual. Read the press release and initial winter prospects summary. Also follow TWO Buzz during the next few days as we discuss this further.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/
A more continental sourced winter forecast this time around, which appeals to my base intincts!
So, some long range forecasts are going for a mild winter, some going for a cold one so basically we are none-the-wiser really. 0 -
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DE I hope they are right! We could get a proper snow event from something like that. Looking into their press release I see a little more detail :
So I wouldn’t be surprised to see some locations in the west of Britain and Northern Ireland having significant snowfalls, but the coldest weather is likely to persist for longer in eastern Britain.
Of course the snow isn't going to stop on the border.
Fingers crossed.0 -
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