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August 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

2

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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,323 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Mount Dillon weather station is Roscommon though.

    99.9999999999998% certain ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I have it 2-0 for Connacht (Newport was warmer than Leinster stations on 1st and Mountdillon warmer on 2nd), but that's just for those who want to track the non-official contest. Will check later for 3rd, no Connacht stations have yet reported higher than the 21.8 Leinster max.

    It now appears to be 2-1 for Leinster vs Ulster with no Ulster station showing higher than 21, while Oak Park had 21.8 (3rd). Will confirm this later.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Just to confirm that it is 2-1 to Leinster. The weather station in Co. Fermanagh managed just 21°C. It was 21.9°C in Oak Park according to met.ie.
    It now 1-2 in favour of Connaught after its best temperature 20.3 at Athenry.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Some warm places in each of the provinces included in the Battles. Ulster, Ballyhaise 21.9°C shared with similar reports from the North. Connaught, Mt. Dillon 23.5°C (they got 36.1mm of rain). Leinster Phoenix Park 23.2°c. Not included in any battles is Munster, 21.9°C at Gurteen.

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 3-1
    Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 1-3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks for that, JPmarn, I will from now on this month just thank your post if I agree and the scoring looks correct, which is the case so far.If not I will post and we'll figure it out later.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Max temperatures
    Leinster 22.5° Phoenix Park,
    Ulster 20.8 Derry NI.
    Connaught 20.4° Mt Dillon.

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 4-1
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 2-3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Max temperatures
    Leinster 20.6 Oak Park,
    Ulster 19.8 Belfast International*
    Connaught 20.8° Mt Dillon warmest recorded temperature in Ireland.

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 5-1
    Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 2-4.

    *The temperatures from Northern Ireland is taken from the Meteoceil website and locations are approximate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    The warmest spot in Connaught is not Mt Dillon. The Ulster hot spot is in the South but Leinster reigns supreme.

    All Ireland Final Day 7
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 22.5° Oak Park,
    Ulster 20.5 Ballyhaise
    Connaught 21.7 Newport Co. Mayo

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 6-1
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 3-4.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week of August ...

    IMT on 16.5 which is 1.0 deg above normal.

    MAX has not been above 24, MIN has not been below 8, AFAIK.

    PRC opened up with 141% of normal.

    SUN also above average at 125.3% (752/600).


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 8
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 21.3° Oak Park,
    Ulster 21.1 Co Tyrone*
    Connaught 22.2 Mt. Dillon shared with Shannon for the highest temp in the country.

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 7-1
    Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 3-5.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 9
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 21.4 Dusany
    Ulster 22.6 Derry*
    Connaught 22.7 Mt. Dillon

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 7-2
    Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 3-6.

    Mt Dillon could do with a tropical resort hotel going be some of the stats this summer.
    *The temperatures from Northern Ireland is taken from the Meteoceil website and locations are approximate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 10
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 20.2 Phoenix Park
    Ulster 20.8 Belfast*
    Connaught 18.7 Mt. Dillon

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 7-3
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 4-6.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 11
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 18.8 Phoenix Park
    Ulster 16.3 Belfast*
    Connaught 17.9 Mt. Dillon

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 8-3
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 5-6.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 12
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 18.8 Oak Park
    Ulster 17.1 Derry and Tyrone*
    Connaught 18.8 Newport Co. Mayo.

    In our secondary competition there is a tie on the max temperature in Leinster and Connaught so the points will be awarded to the province with the higher min temperature.

    Connaught 5.4 Claremorris, probably the monthly MIN.
    Leinster 5.7 Mullingar.

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 9-3
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 6-6.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Agree with the scoring for the bonus and secondary contest, but in fact those minimum temperatures were at midnight on their way down to lower values, so far I have seen 4.6 at Claremorris (and 4.7 at Mullingar) as eventual MINs, both Markree and Mountdillon also hit hourly values of 5 C at 0600h and one of them could have gone lower than 4.6, won't know that until tomorrow's report. But at the time they were the MIN for the month to that point in time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Monthly min will be a lot lower by August 24th id say. Some cool charts temperature wise


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 13
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 19.3 Oak Park
    Ulster 19.9 Co. Tyrone*
    Connaught 20.1 Newport

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 9-4
    Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 6-7.

    MIN now 4.6°C at Claremorris followed by 4.7°C at Mullingar.

    *The temperatures from Northern Ireland is taken from the Meteoceil website and locations are approximate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 14
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 22.5 Oak Park
    Ulster 21.5 Co. Tyrone*
    Connaught 22.0 Mt Dillon

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 10-4
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 7-7.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT on 15.74, the second week averaged 14.9 which is 0.5 below normal.

    MAX ... I thought it had not exceeded 24 yet, but apparently 25.4 at Mountdillon on 2nd ... MIN is 4.6 so far.

    PRC is now exactly twice normal (200%) with the second week a soaking wet 259% of normal. This means that only about 5 mm of rain over the grid will ensure a normal outcome by end of month even if a dry spell then began and lasted to end of month. Malin Head and Belmullet have had significantly less rain than the other nine locations, several of which have already passed their August averages.

    SUN is still above normal at 101% but week two was rather cloudy at 76% of normal (457/600).

    Bonus as tracked by Jpmarn (many thanks) is 10-4 in favour of Leinster, would have been 7-7 had Connacht made it to the final.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Was it not 25.4c at the start of August in Mt Dillon?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,099 ✭✭✭John mac


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Just Checking on the location of Mt. Dillon weather station. It was the warmest place in Ireland at 25.4°C.

    yup :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 15
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 22.2 Oak Park
    Ulster 19.5 Co. Tyrone*
    Connaught 19.7 Mt Dillon

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 11-4
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 8-7.
    Just to correct MT's summary of the month so far MAX should read 25.4°C recorded in Mt Dillon station on the 2nd.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks, have managed to edit that post with the faulty MAX.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 16
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 22.6 Oak Park
    Ulster 21.5 Armagh*
    Connaught 20.6 Mt Dillon

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 12-4
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 9-7.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 17
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 19.5 Phoenix Park and Oak Park
    Ulster 18.7 Co. Tyrone*
    Connaught 18.0 Mt Dillon

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 13-4
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 10-7.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 18
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 18.7 Phoenix Park and Oak Park
    Ulster 18.9 Ballyhaise
    Connaught 19.9 Mt Dillon

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 13-5
    Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 10-8.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 19
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 19.4 Oak Park
    Ulster 17.4 Belfast International*
    Connaught 18.1 Mt Dillon

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 14-5
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 11-8.

    Looking at some models lately it does look like the present MAX and MIN will be beaten in the next 10 days.

    *The temperatures from Northern Ireland is taken from the Meteoceil website and locations are approximate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Those NI locations can be detected by hovering your mouse over each number, but in any case they are Castlederg (Tyrone), Thomastown (Fermanagh), Glenannne (looks to be Armagh), Belfast Aldergrove, Lough Fea and Portglenone northwest of Lough Neagh, Ballypatrick Forest on north coast and Magilligan (Derry).

    The next regular update from me is two days away but IMT after 19 days was 15.6 (will oscillate but could finish near this) and PRC is now close to 110% guaranteed (if dry to end of month) so with about 20-30 mm projected on charts would expect that to finish around 130-140 per cent.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tracking the race for All-Ireland forecasting supremacy over the three month bonus contest period ...

    Score this month in the temperature "contest" is 14-5 in favour of Leinster.

    This table shows you the points totals for June-July, and the maximum score possible for your noted August forecast (this will change as I count down this table to end of month). So far only one August forecast has fallen below a possible perfect outcome (Rikand's 28-3 can still score eight if 26-5 is the result).

    To be consistent with the June-July scoring, August will be scored from differentials only, whatever the distribution in scores that provides. By differentials, I mean errors in number of days warmer (for Leinster not the total of two which will always be double that). The exception would now be if the total somehow reaches 19-12 or 18-13 which have no entries, then the August scoring will begin with 10s for whichever side of that zone is closest, and award 9 to the 17-14 pair if it's 19-12 (10 if 18-13), otherwise moving down one point per larger error than 20-11 which would get 9 for 19-12 and 8 for 18-13. Looks to me like 23-8 is about the most likely outcome now anyway. Ulster has some chance in this warmer southeast wind period predicted.

    ____________________________________________ provisional scores __

    FORECASTER _____ June-July total ___ August fcst __ Max score ___ TOTAL

    sryanbruen __________ 20 ____________21-10 ______ 10 ________ 30

    200motels ___________19 ____________20-11 ______ 10 ________ 29

    Tae laidir ____________17 ____________21-10 ______ 10 ________ 27

    mickger844posts ______17 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 10 ________ 27

    Bsal ________________17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 27

    Adam240610 ________ 17 ____________22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 27

    waterways __________ 17 ____________25 - 6 ______ 10 ________ 27

    JPmarn _____________ 17 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 27

    Artane 2002 _________ 16 ___________ 23 - 8 ______ 10 ________ 26

    Pauldry _____________ 16 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 26

    sunflower3 __________ 16 ___________ 20-11 ______ 10 ________ 26

    JCX BXC ____________ 16 ___________ 25 - 6 ______ 10 ________ 26

    dasa29 _____________ 15 ___________ 17-14 ______ 10 ________ 25

    DOCARCH ___________14 ___________ 26 - 5 ______ 10 ________ 24

    Mr Skinner __________ 14 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 24

    M.T. Cranium ________ 14 ___________ 22 - 9 ______ 10 ________ 24

    john mac ___________ 14 ___________ 17-14 _______10 ________ 24

    Rikand _____________ 14 ___________ 28 - 3 _______ 8 ________ 22

    Kindred Spirit ________12 ___________ 24 - 7 _______10 ________ 22

    Rameire ____________ 12 ___________ 22 - 9 _______10 ________ 22

    dacogawa ___________ 11 ___________ 24 - 7 ______ 10 ________ 21

    Joe Public ___________ 11 ___________ 21-10 ______ 10 ________ 21

    Gonzo ______________19 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 19

    Yan sno _____________16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16

    BLIZZARD7 __________16 ___________ no fcst _______ 0 ________ 16

    ============================================================

    Only three can now win on total points, most of us are eliminated by another forecaster with a higher total and same August forecast, or somebody two or more points ahead and one different on the forecast.

    Sryanbruen will win if the outcome is 21-10 (30 points), 22-9 (29), 23-8 (28), 24-7 (27).

    200motels will tie with sryanbruen if the outcome is 20-11 (both 29 points) and will win for 19-12 (also 29), 18-13 (28), 17-14 (27) down to 14-17.

    waterways will win if the outcome is 25-6 (27 points), or 26-5 (26 points). (27-4 is no longer a possible outcome)

    dasa29 can finish third to 200motels and sryanbruen in second, if the outcome is 17-14 (25 points) or 16-15, 15-16, 14-17 (all very unlikely now).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    All Ireland Final Day 20
    Max temperatures
    Leinster 18.9 Oak Park
    Ulster 18.7 Malin Head and Magilligan, Derry.
    Connaught 18.0 Claremorris

    Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 15-5
    Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 12-8.

    Thanks M.T. for the tip on the Meteociel website.


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