Saturday 23rd Jan Haydock

Anniepowaa · 23-01-2021 4:41pm

All chacun pour soi has to do is keep fit now

posturingpat · 23-01-2021 4:43pm

First flow winning a grade 1 over 2 miler just over. Never did I think I'd see the day.

Coneygree · 23-01-2021 4:49pm

Christ the ****e talk bigging up Politologue all week like he is Altior or Sprinter makes that a very satisfying result.

Defi is completely gone at the game it seems. Think they should chuck him in the Ryanair and potentially retire him if he flops hard.

The Mig · 23-01-2021 4:55pm

That was seriously impressive from Royale Pagaille

Plasandrunt · 23-01-2021 5:30pm

Anniepowaa wrote: »

Ye are actual idiots to think that would even place in a gold cup, Bristol de mai is the best horse to win that donkey race and he couldn't even get within an arses roar of a gold cup

Pretty sure Bristol De Mai has placed in a Gold Cup

Anniepowaa · 23-01-2021 5:32pm

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Pretty sure Bristol De Mai has placed in a Gold Cup

Was he close to ever winning it tho

supremenovice · 24-01-2021 7:23pm

supremenovice wrote: »

So, in conclusion, Botox Has wins the Coral Cup
Which is a relief, cause I wasn't sure where I was going to get a winner at this years Festival.

I asked Bet365 and they have him introduced at 33/1. I was hoping for 50s considering their market is still antepost and not NRNB.

dickdasr1234 · 24-01-2021 10:45pm

Anniepowaa wrote: »

Ye are actual idiots to think that would even place in a gold cup, Bristol de mai is the best horse to win that donkey race and he couldn't even get within an arses roar of a gold cup

Perhaps you need to do a little further research?

del roy · 25-01-2021 12:06am

Anniepowaa wrote: »

Ye are actual idiots to think that would even place in a gold cup, Bristol de mai is the best horse to win that donkey race and he couldn't even get within an arses roar of a gold cup

del roy · 25-01-2021 12:11am

The Mig wrote: »

That was seriously impressive from Royale Pagaille

'Royale Pagaille wouldn't be out of his depth' - Deutsch has no Gold Cup qualms

By Peter Scargill
UPDATED 9:42PM, JAN 24 2021

Royale Pagaille was labelled a “proper horse” by his regular rider on Sunday, with Charlie Deutsch believing the seven-year-old could be highly competitive in the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup if connections opt to go for the festival showpiece.

Paddy Power on Sunday cut Royale Pagaille further to 8-1 (from 10) co-second favourite, having been 25-1 before winning Haydock's Peter Marsh Chase on Saturday, meaning he is now the shortest-priced British-trained horse in their Gold Cup market.

Trainer Venetia Williams and owners Susannah and Rich Ricci are set to discuss Cheltenham Festival options in the days ahead, with either the National Hunt Chase or Gold Cup appearing the most likely destination. The Festival Novices' Chase, formerly the RSA Chase, is earmarked for Monkfish, who is in the same ownership.

Watch Royale Pagaille's impressive Peter Marsh victory

Deutsch, who rode at Ascot on Saturday, partnered Royale Pagaille on his four British starts before Haydock and is in no doubt about the horse's ability.

“He’s got everything you’d want in a horse: he stays, he jumps and he’s a great galloper,” he said. “He couldn’t have been any more impressive and he feels like a proper horse, so I can see why people are getting excited about him. On paper what he’s done would definitely justify the hype he’s getting.”

Deutsch has previous experience of riding in a Gold Cup having finished seventh on Yala Enki in 2019, but admits there are pros and cons in making a final decision.

“He could run in a Gold Cup and he would deserve to go for a race like that,” he said. “He also stays well, so you wouldn’t worry about going for a National Hunt Chase.

“It’s a tricky one because if he went and won the National Hunt Chase easily you could end up kicking yourself for not running in the Gold Cup. The opposite is true if you missed the race and were beaten in the Gold Cup.

“I’ve ridden in a Gold Cup before and I certainly think he would be competitive. He would be able to go with them and while his jumping isn’t flashy, it’s efficient. I would have confidence going into a Gold Cup with him and he wouldn’t be out of his depth.”

Royale Pagaille leapfrogged the likes of Santini and Champ in the Gold Cup betting, with Paddy Power pricing him behind only dual winner Al Boum Photo.

Spokesman Paul Binfield said: “I can’t remember such an awesome exhibition of jumping in a Peter Marsh, especially giving 11lb to his nearest rival. Venetia and Susannah have a lovely problem deciding which race to run him in.

“You’d think he might be doubtful to take on Monkfish in the Festival Novices’ Chase, while he’s favourite for the National Hunt Chase and looks to have that contest at his mercy.

“However, I’m sure punters would love to see him have a crack at the Gold Cup and they’ve backed him into 8-1 co-second favourite with us, partly because we’re non-runner no-bet but probably more pertinently because he’s been an absolute revelation and looks to be one of the most exciting young chasers we’ve seen in years.”

Royale Pagaille was reported to be in good shape on Sunday by Williams, who pointed to a potential lack of strength in depth at Haydock when assessing the performance.

She said: “I was delighted with what he did but one mustn’t forget that the second favourite was a non-runner, the third favourite exited before the race really got going and the horse who did finish second had been beaten in a veterans' chase last time.

“You also have to remember that while it’s lovely to have a horse like this for Mr and Mrs Ricci, they have a number of other good horses in Ireland and, understandably, they don’t want to be running them against each other.”

She added: “I don’t think we’re going to be rushing to make a final decision on any race as so much can change with who’s running and who’s not running this far from Cheltenham.”

Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup (March 19)
Paddy Power: 3 Al Boum Photo, 8 A Plus Tard, Minella Indo, Royale Pagaille, 9 Santini, 10 Champ, 14 bar.

IAMAMORON · 25-01-2021 1:57am

I am not sure it really meets it's price.

Beat nothing really on Saturday, although it did smash them.

Probably 7/1 SP for Gold cup and 9/4 NHC.... I frankly cannot see it being good enough for either at those prices. My main qualm is that whilst it has been handy the last 3 times it has never been properly put to the test yet? At those prices I cannot back it. It is very useful but is it better than Santini, Al Boum Photo, Delta Work, Champ etc etc. Not at 7/1 and there is no guarantee it likes further on harder ground.

The value is gone now. It is into hype horse category - good luck if it is good enough but it will be no price at this stage wherever it runs.

It has run less than 10 times I think?

Pogue eile · 25-01-2021 2:10am

Cap Du Nord is an absolute steal at 4/1 for this next weekends Skybet, gets in off 139 having finishing second to Royal Pagaille off 133. Double Shuffle was 20 lenghts back in third and won comfortably since.

Pogue eile · 25-01-2021 5:15pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

Cap Du Nord is an absolute steal at 4/1 for this next weekends Skybet, gets in off 139 having finishing second to Royal Pagaille off 133. Double Shuffle was 20 lenghts back in third and won comfortably since.

Roylal Pegaille unsurprisingly taken out so Cap Du Nord is now top price 3/1 could go off very short.

Pogue eile · 25-01-2021 5:26pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

Financially I hope not but absolutely 100% as a race fan I would love to see it, it was visually incredibilly impressive I probably wont get a chance to review it properly until Monday but initial thoughts were 170 type performance, his jumping is just so low and slick.

Having reviewed the race and gone through the sectionals, taking into consideration the falls etc. I have assessed Royal Pegaille as having run to 169P.

So if we take it that Al Boum is a worthy favourite and is certainly not on the upgrade then Royal Pegaille only needs to improve 6lbs to match him, consdering the curve he is on, that seems very realistic.

Big questions re the ground, course and lack of a festival run, but I think they are probably factored into the price. 12/1 seems fair but I wouldnt be rushing to back him at that, more of a back on the day job when we know that he is definitely runing and what the ground etc is like.

Listening to the Ricci's racing manager yesterday morning I would say it is almost certain he runs in the GC unless something happens Monkfish between now and March or he completly bombs at the DRF.

del roy · 25-01-2021 7:01pm

Timeform reaction to Royale Pagaille winning Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock
By Timeform
16:32 · MON January 25, 2021
Exciting novice chaser Royale Pagaille would be worth his place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup line-up, according to Timeform's jumps editor Dan Barber.

Royale Pagaille was cut to a top price of 12/1 (from 50/1) for the Cheltenham Gold Cup after impressing in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock on Saturday, winning that historic handicap by 16 lengths from a lofty BHA mark of 156, giving connections a big decision to make.

Barber said: "Royale Pagaille looked some way removed from one of the best novices around in his first two starts for Venetia Williams, but he’s returned a totally different proposition this season and, having made light of a 16lb rise for his striking win at Kempton, put himself firmly in the top bracket in the novice division, his rating of 163p making him second only to Shishkin (165P).

"In truth, Royale Pagaille could be rated even higher – he won by 16 lengths without being asked for anything like maximum effort – but history is littered with seemingly mammoth performances from staying chasers in the Haydock mud so, for now, a more cautious rating was deemed a sensible course of action. As ever, we will continue to monitor that form in case time shows we were out one way or the other.

"Cheltenham, where he’ll likely face conditions rather less gruelling, will provide a different test of Royale Pagaille’s qualities, but a reproduction of his Haydock figure would have seen him win all bar the most exceptional recent renewals of the Festival Novices' Chase (former RSA), whilst the Gold Cup arguably makes even more sense, given he’s accrued so much chasing experience already – fellow novice Coneygree won the Blue Riband on only his fourth outing, whereas Royale Pagaille will arrive with 11 under his belt."

Williams will discuss Festival plans with Royale Pagaille's owners Rich and Susannah Ricci, who also own Monkfish, the short-price favourite for the Festival Novices' Chase.

The National Hunt Chase, a novice event contested over three and three-quarter miles this year, is an option, while the Cheltenham Gold Cup must also come under consideration after Saturday's impressive success.

The Riccis have gone close in the Gold Cup before with Djakadam, who was twice runner-up in the race, including in 2015 when he was beaten by Coneygree. Coneygree was the first novice to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup since Captain Christy in 1974.

Dual Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo sets the standard in the staying division and has a Timeform rating of 172.

Kauto · 25-01-2021 7:39pm

Unless it comes up like a swamp Royal pagaille wouodnt have much of a chance in a gold cup. He wouldnt be anywhere near the class of the likes of Al Boum Photo, A Plus Tard and Minella Indo. Venetia Williams horses tend to be Mudlarks and off feck all use on anything other than heavy.
He would remind you of a horse like Sir Rembrandt, a slow boat and sometimes these donkeys can get involved in the finish of a gold cup owing to the extended trip.

IAMAMORON · 25-01-2021 10:37pm

I got busy looking into former Peter Marsh Chase winners who won it off top weight. It is a small list however some seriously intriguing names.

1987 The Thinker 9 11-10 Ridley Lamb Arthur Stephenson
1992 Twin Oaks 12 11-10 Neale Doughty Gordon W. Richards
1997 Jodami 12 11-10 Norman Williamson Peter Beaumont
2009 Cloudy Lane 9 11-10 Jason Maguire Donald McCain, Jr.
2021 Royal Pagaille 7 11-10 Tom Scudamore Venetia Williams

Both the Thinker and Jodami won the Cheltenham Gold Cup the same year.

Pogue eile · 25-01-2021 10:45pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I got busy looking into former Peter Marsh Chase winners who won it off top weight. It is a small list however some seriously intriguing names.

1987 The Thinker 9 11-10 Ridley Lamb Arthur Stephenson
1992 Twin Oaks 12 11-10 Neale Doughty Gordon W. Richards
1997 Jodami 12 11-10 Norman Williamson Peter Beaumont
2009 Cloudy Lane 9 11-10 Jason Maguire Donald McCain, Jr.
2021 Royal Pagaille 7 11-10 Tom Scudamore Venetia Williams

Both the Thinker and Jodami won the Cheltenham Gold Cup the same year.

And he has far more scope for improvement than all of them.

I would add though that it wasnt the strongest renewal, but the manner of the win was the big takeaway.

abarkie · 26-01-2021 1:24am

Pogue eile wrote: »

And he has far more scope for improvement than all of them.

I would add though that it wasnt the strongest renewal, but the manner of the win was the big takeaway.

More scope for improvement than Jodami?

Pogue eile · 26-01-2021 2:13am

abarkie wrote: »

More scope for improvement than Jodami?

Jodami was 12 when he won the marsh off top weight, RP is 7. Jodami also win the marsh as an 8 year old and went on to win the gold cup the same year.

abarkie · 26-01-2021 11:06am

Pogue eile wrote: »

Jodami was 12 when he won the marsh off top weight, RP is 7. Jodami also win the marsh as an 8 year old and went on to win the gold cup the same year.

Missed the age

If it improves to be anything like Jodami, could be very interesting for the gold cup

Reminds me of improvement like Master Oats

IAMAMORON · 26-01-2021 11:20am

I would say if Venetia has her hands on a Gold Cup chance she is pulling the trigger.

I mean there is an argument around the NHC destroying a novice chaser.

In saying all that there is no value anymore. I also don't think he is a super jumper, he gets over them, but could easily be found out on a rolling track like Cheltenham. I would rather be on a horsie with course form to be honest.

del roy · 26-01-2021 12:32pm

We saw a performance of genuine Gold Cup quality in the Peter Marsh as Royale Pagaille hacked up on the heavy ground, completely on the bridle despite having to defy top weight and a mark of 156. No, his competition was not that testing, but the manner in which he did this was stunning and the handicapper has agreed, raising his mark 10lb to 166 – more than enough to justify his place in the Gold Cup. Of course, the Venetia Williams-trained seven-year-old is technically still a novice but has a shed load of chasing experience, both in France and here, with 11 starts over the larger obstacles to his name and three seriously good wins this season under his belt. His win over the extremely progressive Cap Du Nord (who is extremely likely to win the Sky Bet Chase on Saturday by the way) at Kempton was impressive enough before this, but I didn’t ever think he would be good enough to do this from a 16lb higher mark. The same owners have Monkfish already looking to run in the 3m Festival Novices’ Chase, so the two options open to him look to be the National Hunt Chase or the Gold Cup. He would be the clear top-rated horse in the novice contest, but he wouldn’t be too far off the top in the Gold Cup either where he’s priced between 8/1 and 12/1 – if he was mine, I’d absolutely run him in the blue riband, sometimes horses just improve and improve over a season and I’d be gutted if I missed the opportunity to give him a go in a Gold Cup that is jam packed with unconvincing contenders and looks winnable bar the two-time winner Al Boum Photo. He’s at the very top of his game and judging by what we’ve seen from him so far this season, Royale Pagaille will be a leading contender in either race, even if spring ground is something of a question mark.

Bettrends

Pogue eile · 26-01-2021 12:54pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

Cap Du Nord is an absolute steal at 4/1 for this next weekends Skybet, gets in off 139 having finishing second to Royal Pagaille off 133. Double Shuffle was 20 lenghts back in third and won comfortably since.

Cap Du Nord has been rasied another 3lbs on the back of Royal Peagille's run, so thats 5lbs without running, he got 2lbs when Double Shuffle won, importantly he doesnt have to carry the latest 3lbs on Saturday.

Pogue eile wrote: »

Having reviewed the race and gone through the sectionals, taking into consideration the falls etc. I have assessed Royal Pegaille as having run to 169P.

Official handicapper has gone with 166 and I can see why he has been somewhat cautious. Still puts him bang in the Gold Cup picture. The horses rating is a great example of how much racing is a game of opinions and variables. Timeform have gone 163, BHA 166, little old me 169 and Racing Post Ratings 171.

abarkie · 26-01-2021 1:45pm

Does Royal Pegaille have any form at Cheltenham or undulating courses?

Haydock and Kempton are relatively flat are they not?

Pogue eile · 26-01-2021 2:44pm

abarkie wrote: »

Does Royal Pegaille have any form at Cheltenham or undulating courses?

Haydock and Kempton are relatively flat are they not?

No he doesn't and I mentioned earlier as a concern and a reason why I would be wary of the current prices.

That said, up until a few weeks back he didnt have any form of note anywhere and has since gone up 31lbs in the official handicap. There is nothing in particular about his stride or his running style that suggets to me that it should pose a problem but until he runs there it is an unkown. Just like 90% of Irish novices that run in the festival it should certainy be something taking into consideration - of course the flip side is that he has never run under par at the track/festival and there will be plenty in opposition who have.

Every morning I go onto oddschecker he is blue and It gets to a point where the price could become silly ,which could make the book for a few others. I have couch change at 68 on BF and a hefty bet at 9/1 any race but I dont think I would be rushing in to back him at current prices.

RivetingRoger · 26-01-2021 2:49pm

I would expect RP to run in the GC simply because the Ricci's don't have a GC horse and no doubt the Vautour mistake still burns deep.
Leave him in the 3 races, if Monkfish gets to the RSA then that's out.
If the going is looking like heavy in the weeks before, declare for the GC, if its not, take your chance in the NHC.

del roy · 27-01-2021 9:04am

'He's way ahead of any staying novice' - Royal Pagaille impresses handicapper
Venetia Williams-trained seven-year-old handed mark of 166 after Peter Marsh win

Royale Pagaille's revised handicap mark of 166 following his devastating performance in Saturday's Peter Marsh Chase could prove conservative, according to BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood.

The Venetia Williams-trained novice chaser has become one of the talking horses of the sport over the last six weeks after three impressive handicap performances sparked talk of a possible tilt at the Gold Cup.

If the seven-year-old were to run in the race he would attempt to become only the second horse this century to win the Gold Cup as a novice, following on from Coneygree who was also rated 166 when scoring in 2015. His current rating would make him the joint fourth highest-rated novice chaser alongside Coneygree and Un De Sceaux to run at the festival.

Highest-rated novice chasers coming into the festival since 2000

1. Altior (170)
2. Sprinter Sacre (169)
3. Rock On Ruby (167)
4. Coneygree (166)
4. Un De Sceaux (166)
6. Overturn (165)
7. Footpad (162)
7. Vibrato Valtat (162)
9. Douvan (161)
9. Long Run (161)
9. Punchestowns (161)

Royale Pagaille has climbed 31lb in the weights since winning a novice handicap at Haydock in December, a dramatic improvement Greenwood says is far from normal for horses running in quality handicap chases.

"It's pretty rare for horses to go up so much so quickly but if you watch this horse he's barely come off the bridle in two top handicaps," Greenwood said.

"He jumps soundly, travels strongly and absolutely destroys the others in the field. I think there's a chance 166 could prove to be on the conservative side."

The seven-year-old's revised mark places him 3lb shy of King George winner Frodon, 2lb behind Clan Des Obeaux and 1lb ahead of Minella Indo on BHA ratings.

"It puts him up there with most of the top staying chasers full stop this season," Greenwood said. "The division is a bit of a mishmash but he's on the tailcoats of the best.

"Whether that proves to be correct only time will tell but it's been very rare I've seen a horse improving this quickly during my time as a chase handicapper at the BHA."

A 5lb rise for Royale Pagaille after his opening success of the season at Haydock proved no issue after an easy victory over Cap Du Nord in a Kempton handicap in late December.

The runner-up is favourite for Saturday's Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster, while the third-placed Double Shuffle franked the form further with victory at Kempton this month.

Yet even a 16lb rise for that win underestimated Royale Pagaille's abilities, as evidenced by his 16-length triumph in the Peter Marsh.

Greenwood says the unique route taken by the horse as a novice has turned him into something of an outlier for handicappers in that he is proving himself against quality competion far earlier than normal.

"It's quite rare for the best novices to come through this route in this era and you normally don't find your best staying novice chaser until the spring," he added.

"He's way ahead of any staying novice going at the moment but horses like Monkfish and Shan Blue haven't been given the opportunity yet against proven, established horses. However, whichever you cut this cake, from a handicapping perspective he's a very good horse."

dickdasr1234 · 03-02-2021 2:31am

Pogue eile wrote: »

Yes because that is what I said!

In the last 5 seasons, Venetia has had 1525 runners with a S/R of 13.6%. She has had a sum total of 3 runners where there was any mention of firm in the going, all were beaten. She has had 175 runners on Good ground with a S/R of only 7.4%. You tell me what type of ground her horses generally prefer. And if you dont think how and where a horse is trained can affect thier ground preferences then yes you probably have wasted a few years!

FYI sarcasm actually takes a certain amonunt of wit and intelligernce to pull off, are you sure you have thought this through??

Timeform: "The obvious conclusion is that Williams’ impressive tally of winners on heavy going is not down to any notable bias in her horse’s favoured conditions, but that they have simply had more opportunities to tackle them compared to runners from other yards – indeed, they are rarely given the chance to run on anything else."
"For the sake of comparison, there are 22 active trainers in Britain who can boast a better strike rate than Venetia Williams with their runners on heavy ground"

You say: "how and where a horse is trained can affect their ground preference".

I would have thought NH types were predominantly bred to handle soft ground. I cannot understand how a horse that was physically unsuited to soft ground could be "trained" to be effective on it nor a horse that can handle soft be "trained" to handle heavy. Certain training methods may favour stamina but they cannot change a horse's ground preference.

I have indeed wasted many years but not in this regard.

Racing Post: It is well known that when the rain falls and the mud is flying trainer Venetia Williams comes to the fore and starts having winners left, right and centre.

Such a bias towards a certain type of ground would indicate Williams spends much of her time buying horses suited to these conditions, or trains them in a way that means they are able to excel where others flounder. However, the reason for her success is much simpler than that, which ridicules much of the debate on going.

“I only run my horses on softer going so if I’m not having winners on that ground I won’t have winners full stop,” Williams says. “Like all trainers I want to win races, but my horses will only get the chance to win races on softer ground.

“Nothing is designed or pre-planned when it comes to getting these horses. By and large, I have very few runners until the ground softens.”

"“Some horses won’t handle the extremes, I’m talking very heavy ground really, and they won’t enjoy it. That’s not always predictable until you run them on the ground. I think people sending horses to me know how I operate and that I tend to focus running my horses on softer ground.”

ps

Any discussion of intelligence should probably be reserved for a dedicated thread.

dickdasr1234 · 06-02-2021 2:04am

You're welcome.

Saturday 23rd Jan Haydock

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