Who will be Ireland's 1st choice outhalf at the next world cup?

hahashake · 13-11-2020 12:35pm

Curious that people think Sexton's contract won't be renewed. Isn't he still first choice in the strongest Irish province?

KaneToad · 13-11-2020 12:53pm

hahashake wrote: »

Curious that people think Sexton's contract won't be renewed. Isn't he still first choice in the strongest Irish province?

He's stated that he's keen to do a Tom Brady. He's still the best 10 in Leinster & Ireland, albeit not as good as he once was. I don't see why he wouldn't be given another contract...

CMcsporty · 13-11-2020 1:00pm

hahashake wrote: »

Curious that people think Sexton's contract won't be renewed. Isn't he still first choice in the strongest Irish province?

Yes but you must weigh it against the other facts.
He will be 36
He has played poorly in all of Ireland's biggest games for the last 18 months Eng 2019, Wales 2019, NZ 2019 and England & France 2020.
He's not improving.
He's on a €700k contract that is partly funded by Dennis O'Brien and the IRFU has a massive hole in it's pockets.

They also have to renew these other contracts in 2021
CJ
Furlong
Henderson

With Joey Carbery's IRFU contract up in 2022

Top14 clubs will be throwing Sexton 300k+ contracts in to Bernard Brogan very soon.

alias no.9 · 13-11-2020 1:11pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I think it’s unlikely but there’s a clear path to being forced to play him: There isn’t a clear successor and most of the best candidates are very young and inexperienced at the top level.

In his early career, Sexton was given game time for Ireland when he couldn't kick snow off a rope, that was succession planning, it was the right thing then and it's the right thing now.

Regardless of how the game is going, Burns needs to get 40 minutes tonight, probably needs Murray to come on too for kicking but if JGP is going well maybe delay Murray for 15 minutes.

CMcsporty · 13-11-2020 1:19pm

alias no.9 wrote: »

In his early career, Sexton was given game time for Ireland when he couldn't kick snow off a rope, that was succession planning, it was the right thing then and it's the right thing now.

Regardless of how the game is going, Burns needs to get 40 minutes tonight, probably needs Murray to come on too for kicking but if JGP is going well maybe delay Murray for 15 minutes.

Sexton started brilliantly and went from strength to strength in 2009 Nov through the 2010 6N and into 2011 6N.

For some reason Kidney then selected O'Gara v Wales in 2011 6N and again in RWC. ROG was 34. It didnt go well.

Sexton & Burns will not be at the WC.
Ireland's problem is that their succession plan is out injured "indefinitely"

El_Duderino 09 · 13-11-2020 2:11pm

CMcsporty wrote: »

...
Sexton & Burns will not be at the WC.
Ireland's problem is that their succession plan is out injured "indefinitely"

The other problem is that the succession plan has never actually had a run of games at 10. As soon as he was added to the Ireland squad he was put on the same schedule as sexton so they tended to only be available together so sexton played 10 and Carbery played 15. Then he moved to Munster to play 10 and has been injured almost the entire time since.

That isn’t meant as a slight against him or his potential, but his potential as a 10 hasn’t been proven yet.

CMcsporty · 13-11-2020 2:28pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The other problem is that the succession plan has never actually had a run of games at 10. As soon as he was added to the Ireland squad he was put on the same schedule as sexton so they tended to only be available together so sexton played 10 and Carbery played 15. Then he moved to Munster to play 10 and has been almost the entire time since.

That isn’t meant as a slight against him or his potential, but his potential as a 10 hasn’t been proven yet.

Potential has been proven (v NZ Chicago Debut '16, v Aus Brisbane ''17, v Scot Murrayfield '19)
But he is not yet a proven international 10

Cullen starting him at FB in March 2017 didnt help him and ultimately led to Munster

alias no.9 · 13-11-2020 4:42pm

CMcsporty wrote: »

Sexton started brilliantly and went from strength to strength in 2009 Nov through the 2010 6N and into 2011 6N.

For some reason Kidney then selected O'Gara v Wales in 2011 6N and again in RWC. ROG was 34. It didnt go well.

Sexton & Burns will not be at the WC.
Ireland's problem is that their succession plan is out injured "indefinitely"

Rose tinted spectacles. Missed penalties were the difference between Ireland and Scotland in Croke Park in 2010. Loosing at home to Scotland in the 6 nations is never part of the plan.

We know Sexton won't be at the next World Cup, Burns may be.

Zeugnis · 13-11-2020 4:59pm

Carbery is not centrally contracted.

CMcsporty wrote: »

With Joey Carbery's IRFU contract up in 2022

Top14 clubs will be throwing Sexton 300k+ contracts in to Bernard Brogan very soon.

hahashake · 13-11-2020 5:14pm

I understand Top14 clubs going after Sexton but it's in his own hands, and he has admitted he wants to prolong his career as much as he can. He is already well paid (as well as the tax break issue) so I can see him being pushed rather than jumping.

bilston · 13-11-2020 9:38pm

Where's the Conor Murray option?

un5byh7sqpd2x0 · 14-11-2020 1:04am

+1 Murray is a definite candidate.

El_Duderino 09 · 14-11-2020 1:28am

Edwin Attractive Dungeon wrote: »

+1 Murray is a definite candidate.

Yeah. In all seriousness, Murray should be under pressure for his 9 jersey in Munster at the moment. The notion that he could take the 10 jersey shows the problem we have at 10 in Ireland. Sexton was great today for the time he played because he was doing the things that he hasn’t been doing for the last 2 years he was a carrying threat and he carried the ball to the line and released other players. He was very good today in stark contrast to his form over the last while.

We need a serious 10 option. Today’s performance as great but is was against form. We need to be serious and give the options game time.

thomond2006 · 14-11-2020 1:36am

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah. In all seriousness, Murray should be under pressure for his 9 jersey in Munster at the moment. The notion that he could take the 10 jersey shows the problem we have at 10 in Ireland. Sexton was great today for the time he played because he was doing the things that he hasn’t been doing for the last 2 years he was a carrying threat and he carried the ball to the line and released other players. He was very good today in stark contrast to his form over the last while.

We need a serious 10 option. Today’s performance as great but is was against form. We need to be serious and give the options game time.

We are way off Murray being under pressure for his 9 jersey at Munster.

Hello 2D Person Below · 14-11-2020 1:41am

Murray is probably the worst kicker in world rugby

The Lost Sheep · 14-11-2020 1:48am

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah. In all seriousness, Murray should be under pressure for his 9 jersey in Munster at the moment. The notion that he could take the 10 jersey shows the problem we have at 10 in Ireland. Sexton was great today for the time he played because he was doing the things that he hasn’t been doing for the last 2 years he was a carrying threat and he carried the ball to the line and released other players. He was very good today in stark contrast to his form over the last while.

We need a serious 10 option. Today’s performance as great but is was against form. We need to be serious and give the options game time.

should he? As while Casey has great potential he isnt near being ready to take 9 from Murray. And the others arent either and what would you like to be done about the 10 issue in Ireland then?

Hello 2D Person Below wrote: »

Murray is probably the worst kicker in world rugby

Based on what exactly?

El_Duderino 09 · 14-11-2020 11:09am

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

...And the others arent either and what would you like to be done about the 10 issue in Ireland then?

The last line of the post you quoted was “We need to be serious and give the options game time“.

As long as they don’t re-sign Sexton for next year, then it’ll be fine. All the 10 options need time at provincial and national level. It’ll be a step down in experience and maybe (maybe not by then) in quality initially. But it’s worth the investment.

WoollyRedHat · 21-11-2020 7:15pm

CMcsporty wrote: »

Yes but you must weigh it against the other facts.
He will be 36
He has played poorly in all of Ireland's biggest games for the last 18 months Eng 2019, Wales 2019, NZ 2019 and England & France 2020.
He's not improving.
He's on a €700k contract that is partly funded by
Dennis O'Brien and the IRFU has a massive hole in it's pockets.

They also have to renew these other contracts in 2021
CJ
Furlong
Henderson

With Joey Carbery's IRFU contract up in 2022

Top14 clubs will be throwing Sexton 300k+ contracts in to Bernard Brogan very soon.

IRFU shouldn't accept a cent of DOB money. Trying to curry favors to avoid scrutiny.

hahashake · 02-12-2020 12:41pm

"'Do I think I can get to the World Cup? I think I can'"

https://www.the42.ie/sexton-ireland-world-cup-5284978-Dec2020/

td1 · 02-12-2020 12:56pm

hahashake wrote: »

https://www.the42.ie/sexton-ireland-world-cup-5284978-Dec2020/

If JS is in the frame for the next World Cup squad, it'll be an indictment of our professional set up

UAEguy2020 · 02-12-2020 12:59pm

td1 wrote: »

If JS is in the frame for the next World Cup squad, it'll be an indictment of our professional set up

If he declines a good bit and is still our starting 10 in 2023 then yes I’d agree but if he’s 38 and still in good form I don’t think it’s outrageous to say he could make another World Cup granted not as a starter.

Paul Smeenus · 02-12-2020 1:06pm

td1 wrote: »

If JS is in the frame for the next World Cup squad, it'll be an indictment of our professional set up

He can't be. He simply can't. This is the point at which his much-lauded competitive nature, refusal to compromise, dive to succeed etc etc diverges from reality and becomes a delusion.

Players with his self-belief and willpower don't just go quietly - what made them great in their pomp, now stops them accepting the march of time. I imagine there will be some horrible experiences and games ahead of him before he accepts that he's done. (When he is past it - I'm not saying he's finished now!)

Buer · 02-12-2020 1:14pm

The problem is that Sexton is still comfortably our best outhalf. At this point in time, it's not out of the question at all that he'll remain first choice for at least up to the end of the 2021/22 season.

We can discuss the next outhalf until the cows come home but this is very much a hypothetical discussion until one of them shows they're able to perform consistently at provincial level and then seize their opportunity at test level to a standard equal to Sexton currently. That's certainly not out of the question as Sexton isn't the player he was but he still is the man in possession.

The best periods of outhalf play we've seen in the past 6 weeks are still probably the opening half against France and the opening half against Wales. Hopefully one of Healy or Harry Byrne step up to the plate in the next 12 months and get opportunities but that's completely unknown.

ELM327 · 02-12-2020 1:20pm

Buer wrote: »

The problem is that Sexton is still comfortably our best outhalf. At this point in time, it's not out of the question at all that he'll remain first choice for at least up to the end of the 2021/22 season.

We can discuss the next outhalf until the cows come home but this is very much a hypothetical discussion until one of them shows they're able to perform consistently at provincial level and then seize their opportunity at test level to a standard equal to Sexton currently. That's certainly not out of the question as Sexton isn't the player he was but he still is the man in possession.

The best periods of outhalf play we've seen in the past 6 weeks are still probably the opening half against France and the opening half against Wales. Hopefully one of Healy or Harry Byrne step up to the plate in the next 12 months and get opportunities but that's completely unknown.

Agree. No one has shown the ability to step up and take the job from Sexton, in the way that Sexton himself did, and ROG before him, Humphreys before him etc.

I still think that Sexton will be our 10 at the world cup. Ironically the best replacement IMO is playing in Ireland again after time in France and UK but not centrally contracted.

El_Duderino 09 · 02-12-2020 1:30pm

UAEguy2020 wrote: »

If he declines a good bit and is still our starting 10 in 2023 then yes I’d agree but if he’s 38 and still in good form I don’t think it’s outrageous to say he could make another World Cup granted not as a starter.

Exactly, it should be more of a comeback story rather than him slowly declining between one WC and the next, and still being Ireland’s best option at 10.

Ireland is always reluctant to drop a big name. They need another big name to usurp them. So it won’t be a problem if H Byrne kicks on and becomes the obvious challenger. It’s hard to drop a declining former star for a normal player like Burns.

It’s been a long time since Ireland hasn’t had a world class 10 in either ROG or JS. But we might be heading into a period where they don’t have a world class 10.

ELM327 · 02-12-2020 1:35pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Exactly, it should be more of a comeback story rather than him slowly declining between one WC and the next, and still being Ireland’s best option at 10.

Ireland is always reluctant to drop a big name. They need another big name to usurp them. So it won’t be a problem if H Byrne kicks on and becomes the obvious challenger. It’s hard to drop a declining former star for a normal player like Burns.

It’s been a long time since Ireland hasn’t had a world class 10 in either ROG or JS. But we might be heading into a period where they don’t have a world class 10.

Agree.

But a declining JS is still IMO better than any of the other options by some margin.

Buer · 02-12-2020 1:39pm

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It’s been a long time since Ireland hasn’t had a world class 10 in either ROG or JS. But we might be heading into a period where they don’t have a world class 10.

It happens. In the space of 26 months, England had Goode, Hodgson, Flood, Cipriani, Flood, Wilkinson and Geraghty all line out for them in the 6N at 10.

We can accommodate a solid but unspectacular outhalf in the team but it means the pack will have to be on top of their game. First and foremost, they need to actually win their own set piece and at least find parity on the gain line. No outhalf is going to be able to look anything remotely close to top quality if they are playing in a team going backwards.

Former Former Former · 02-12-2020 2:02pm

Buer wrote: »

It happens. In the space of 26 months, England had Goode, Hodgson, Flood, Cipriani, Flood, Wilkinson and Geraghty all line out for them in the 6N at 10.

We can accommodate a solid but unspectacular outhalf in the team but it means the pack will have to be on top of their game. First and foremost, they need to actually win their own set piece and at least find parity on the gain line. No outhalf is going to be able to look anything remotely close to top quality if they are playing in a team going backwards.

Yep.

But also, we're never going to have a pack that is so dominant that we can get by with a mediocre out-half because he's getting an armchair ride. We need quality at 10.

I would dread the idea of Sexton being in the jersey at RWC 2023 but at the moment I'd say it's 50-50 that he will be. None of the currently capped alternatives are remotely good enough except Carbery and I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact he's never coming back.

Hopefully one of H Byrne, Healy or even Lowry steps up big time.

El_Duderino 09 · 02-12-2020 2:03pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Agree.

But a declining JS is still IMO better than any of the other options by some margin.

depends on how much he declines over that period. He might be better now but we need to think about the future as the decline happens slowly. We saw JS attack the line in a way he hadn’t done in ages. Carrying ball and hitting the line (or gaps) had just slipped out of his game. It was interesting to note that I heard people refer to things “we all know” such as JS carries the be all close to the line, but that had also slipped out of his game and he was still getting credit for doing it even when he wasn’t doing it.

I think we need a fresh observation of JS and see how good he actually is right now. I suspect he’s getting lots of credit for things he doesn’t really do anymore. Ireland gets hammered by England with R Byrne at 10 results in Byrne missing WC selection. Ireland gets hammered by England with JS at 10 and nobody considers blaming JS for the loss. While he definitely was a great player and still has lots of elements of a great player, he’s judged by a completely differently set of standards than the competitors.

El_Duderino 09 · 02-12-2020 2:06pm

If Sexton is the out half at the next World Cup, then it will almost certainly mean that 10 is a weakness in the Ireland team.

The best on-form player should be picked for the WC and if that’s JS then fair play. But chances of him being close to as good in 2023 as he was in 2019, are very slim.

Who will be Ireland's 1st choice outhalf at the next world cup?

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