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147/1 - Snooker Betting Thread
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13-12-2020 9:06am#1Scottish Open Final - Mark Selby v Ronnie O'Sullivan. Today 1pm Quest and Eurosport.
As much as I like Ronnie, his antics this week are strange to say the least. He mentioned in his interview that he would like to see Jamie Jones get to the final (although he said he had nothing against Mark
).
Apparently Selby was saying Ronnie is making excuses about his tip etc.. He must still be pi55ed about that WC semi final where Ronnie threw caution to the wind, and didn't play proper snooker
. I think Ronnie was right on that score myself to just have a bash.
In this comp it's not as if Ronnie has been "falling over the line" in all his matches; but the amount of mistakes he's being making is astounding. For the most part he hasn't really been cavalier; as he still plays many correct shots when he's nowhere near his best, or not getting the run of the balls.
Still; with the amount of chances he's gifted his opponents, most of the top players would have taken him out already. In his semi final he was up against Li Hang, who was only in his second ever ranking semi, and the occasion surely got to him. The Rocket's previous match against Ding should have seen Ronnie beat as well - I think he was 3-0 down in a race to five. Ding is a player who; rightly or wrongly is perceived; at least in the last few years, to not always have the attentiveness or application required at the top level, so I feel the Chinese superstar let that one slip away.
This final is 10/11 for either player to prevail. Unless Ron has come to terms with his new tip, or whatever it is that has made him be so error strewn, it's hard for me to see anything but a Selby win today. There is probably no one better (or worse
) than the jester for strangling the life out of his opponents when he's got the upper hand. I doubt Ronnie will get more than 1 chance in the majority of the frames, and should he get more, it's likely I feel there will be many balls on cushions making it exceptionally difficult to clear up. He's also had 3 centuries to Ronnie's 1 from their respective semi victories.
I think myself that Mark Selby could well run away with this one. On form it appears he's not only got a good chance of winning it, but winning comprehensively. I think he'll really want to beat Ronnie up today, and I can't say it doesn't look likely that that's exactly how this encounter could pan out.
So I've had a go at Selby -2.5, -4.5 and -5.5 frames at 15/8 , 9/2 and 7/1.3
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[Deleted User] wrote: »Scottish Open Final - Mark Selby v Ronnie O'Sullivan. Today 1pm Quest and Eurosport.
As much as I like Ronnie, his antics this week are strange to say the least. He mentioned in his interview that he would like to see Jamie Jones get to the final (although he said he had nothing against Mark ).
Apparently Selby was saying Ronnie is making excuses about his tip etc.. He must still be pi55ed about that WC semi final where Ronnie threw caution to the wind, and didn't play proper snooker . I think Ronnie was right on that score myself to just have a bash.
In this comp it's not as if Ronnie has been "falling over the line" in all his matches; but the amount of mistakes he's being making is astounding. For the most part he hasn't really been cavalier; as he still plays many correct shots when he's nowhere near his best, or not getting the run of the balls.
Still; with the amount of chances he's gifted his opponents, most of the top players would have taken him out already. In his semi final he was up against Li Hang, who was only in his second ever ranking semi, and the occasion surely got to him. The Rocket's previous match against Ding should have seen Ronnie beat as well - I think he was 3-0 down in a race to five. Ding is a player who; rightly or wrongly is perceived; at least in the last few years, to not always have the attentiveness or application required at the top level, so I feel the Chinese superstar let that one slip away.
This final is 10/11 for either player to prevail. Unless Ron has come to terms with his new tip, or whatever it is that has made him be so error strewn, it's hard for me to see anything but a Selby win today. There is probably no one better (or worse) than the jester for strangling the life out of his opponents when he's got the upper hand. I doubt Ronnie will get more than 1 chance in the majority of the frames, and should he get more, it's likely I feel there will be many balls on cushions making it exceptionally difficult to clear up. He's also had 3 centuries to Ronnie's 1 from their respective semi victories.
I think myself that Mark Selby could well run away with this one. On form it appears he's not only got a good chance of winning it, but winning comprehensively. I think he'll really want to beat Ronnie up today, and I can't say it doesn't look likely that that's exactly how this encounter could pan out.
So I've had a go at Selby -2.5, -4.5 and -5.5 frames at 15/8 , 9/2 and 7/1.
Good shout in fairness.0 -
^^^
Thanks Joe..
Meanwhile today, I'm tackling the 1st round matches in the World Grand Prix... It's a theory of mine that with best of 7, the outsider has more of a chance than in a longer format... This is something I've noticed going back 3-5 yrs watching these ITV/Eurosport comps that money can be made more often than not doing combi doubles on the outsiders, especially in the early rounds. That being said, a lot of the big hitters in these best of sevens have fared better in recent (last year or so) times.
So I'm putting that theory into action..
I've tackled 10 of the twelve matches on both tonight and tomorrow. The two I've left alone are generally pickems, so although one might be marginally bigger than the other; I don't really see any outsider in those two encounters which are Perry(10/11) v McGill(5/6), and Lu Ning(3/4) v Robbie (the guy who's quit singing Ron :rolleyes: - hilarious) Williams(evs).
The shortest one I've gone for is Ricky Walden @ 6/5 v The Hawk who's 8/13.
So I've done 45 combi doubles and 10 singles as well for the bulk of tonight's and tomorrow's matches. Haven't put any of Wednesday's 4 matches in, as too many doubles then.
It's not very scientific, and nothing to do with form.. More an 'experiment' really. Since most matches will be on outside tables, and some of the top boys possibly being "hungover" from going deep in the Scottish Open; it's worth a go imo..
Will post % profit and loss from the singles, which are at level stakes, and the combination doubles at obviously level, and much smaller stakes..
Players and #prices taken:
Milkins 7/2, Walden 23/20, Guodong 17/10, Li Hang 6/4, Michael Holt 4/1, Jak Jones 3/1, Ali Carter (against the rocket - hope it's on telly.. could be major entertainment value to be had, if Ronnie turns up that is :pac:) 14/5, David Grace 2/1, Martin Gould 29/20, The Viking Kurt Maflin 9/5.
#Have only gone with one of the books on all these prices, so some I presume are perhaps bigger elsewhere; and as well as that, it would make it awkward for the doubles if I had several accounts..
Can well see a few demolition jobs, but I wouldn't make myself long odds against to at least do okay (I hope
) from the singles ... 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »^^^
Thanks Joe..
Meanwhile today, I'm tackling the 1st round matches in the World Grand Prix... It's a theory of mine that with best of 7, the outsider has more of a chance than in a longer format... This is something I've noticed going back 3-5 yrs watching these ITV/Eurosport comps that money can be made more often than not doing combi doubles on the outsiders, especially in the early rounds. That being said, a lot of the big hitters in these best of sevens have fared better in recent (last year or so) times.
So I'm putting that theory into action..
I've tackled 10 of the twelve matches on both tonight and tomorrow. The two I've left alone are generally pickems, so although one might be marginally bigger than the other; I don't really see any outsider in those two encounters which are Perry(10/11) v McGill(5/6), and Lu Ning(3/4) v Robbie (the guy who's quit singing Ron :rolleyes: - hilarious) Williams(evs).
The shortest one I've gone for is Ricky Walden @ 6/5 v The Hawk who's 8/13.
So I've done 45 combi doubles and 10 singles as well for the bulk of tonight's and tomorrow's matches. Haven't put any of Wednesday's 4 matches in, as too many doubles then.
It's not very scientific, and nothing to do with form.. More an 'experiment' really. Since most matches will be on outside tables, and some of the top boys possibly being "hungover" from going deep in the Scottish Open; it's worth a go imo..
Will post % profit and loss from the singles, which are at level stakes, and the combination doubles at obviously level, and much smaller stakes..
Players and #prices taken:
Milkins 7/2, Walden 23/20, Guodong 17/10, Li Hang 6/4, Michael Holt 4/1, Jak Jones 3/1, Ali Carter (against the rocket - hope it's on telly.. could be major entertainment value to be had, if Ronnie turns up that is :pac:) 14/5, David Grace 2/1, Martin Gould 29/20, The Viking Kurt Maflin 9/5.
#Have only gone with one of the books on all these prices, so some I presume are perhaps bigger elsewhere; and as well as that, it would make it awkward for the doubles if I had several accounts..
Can well see a few demolition jobs, but I wouldn't make myself long odds against to at least do okay (I hope) from the singles ...
Don't know why I put that in, or phrased it like that.. When I've being seeing past 'results' from hypothetical combination outsider doubles (best of 7s only), it's usually inclusive of 16 or more matches, the like of which there would be in a day in a comp that had 128, or 64 players to begin with.
I would have been happy (probably preferred - the more the merrier in a free for all type format - this particular one, not so much) to include some, or all of Wednesday's matches in my above singles and doubles, but for the fact that the 4 outsiders tomorrow are Vafaei, Wenbo, Jamie Jones, and Jack Lisowski who are priced at 11/8, 21/10, 11/10, and 23/20. On the whole these are too short.
With larger formats in first, and maybe second round matches the median outsider price is usually at around 9/4 or 5/2, and the average probably 3/1, or bigger. Neither of these 4 matches fit even 1 of these criteria so would only skew the returns with the prices being what they are. Regards averages , and median prices, I am happy with the ones selected.. Am not 'after' ( or midway through in this case) 'complaining' or making excuses in advance of anticipated losses :pac: Just didn't set my stall up re tactics/number of investments etc in OP, and wanted to clarify if I attempted it again, and don't want to be seen as 'making it up as I go along'.
If I have another go at this best of 7 outsider backing craic I will most likely do 16, or maybe the best part of 32 players, and will expect to see a fair few priced above 7/2, which is not that likely in a top 32 setup.
The 'experiment' will definitely be on hold for the masters :P , not that it would be a runner anyway, as it's best of 11 to begin with I believe. Yep, will probably be next year's "Home Nations" comps before I get another go at this, but in these strange times it might even be sooner...0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »^^^
Thanks Joe..
Meanwhile today, I'm tackling the 1st round matches in the World Grand Prix... It's a theory of mine that with best of 7, the outsider has more of a chance than in a longer format... This is something I've noticed going back 3-5 yrs watching these ITV/Eurosport comps that money can be made more often than not doing combi doubles on the outsiders, especially in the early rounds. That being said, a lot of the big hitters in these best of sevens have fared better in recent (last year or so) times.
So I'm putting that theory into action..
I've tackled 10 of the twelve matches on both tonight and tomorrow. The two I've left alone are generally pickems, so although one might be marginally bigger than the other; I don't really see any outsider in those two encounters which are Perry(10/11) v McGill(5/6), and Lu Ning(3/4) v Robbie (the guy who's quit singing Ron :rolleyes: - hilarious) Williams(evs).
The shortest one I've gone for is Ricky Walden @ 6/5 v The Hawk who's 8/13.
So I've done 45 combi doubles and 10 singles as well for the bulk of tonight's and tomorrow's matches. Haven't put any of Wednesday's 4 matches in, as too many doubles then.
It's not very scientific, and nothing to do with form.. More an 'experiment' really. Since most matches will be on outside tables, and some of the top boys possibly being "hungover" from going deep in the Scottish Open; it's worth a go imo..
Will post % profit and loss from the singles, which are at level stakes, and the combination doubles at obviously level, and much smaller stakes..
Players and #prices taken:
Milkins 7/2, Walden 23/20, Guodong 17/10, Li Hang 6/4, Michael Holt 4/1, Jak Jones 3/1, Ali Carter (against the rocket - hope it's on telly.. could be major entertainment value to be had, if Ronnie turns up that is :pac:) 14/5, David Grace 2/1, Martin Gould 29/20, The Viking Kurt Maflin 9/5.
#Have only gone with one of the books on all these prices, so some I presume are perhaps bigger elsewhere; and as well as that, it would make it awkward for the doubles if I had several accounts..
Can well see a few demolition jobs, but I wouldn't make myself long odds against to at least do okay (I hope) from the singles ...
No good.
Returns: Milkins wins at 7/2, Martin Gould wins at 29/20
Singles P & L:
6.95pts returned from 10pts invested
% loss 30.55
Combination doubles P & L:
2 winners = 1 double out of 45
11pts returned from 45pts invested
11pts returned on the only successful double
% loss 75.50 -
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Deleted User wrote: »In tonight's first semi final, which is best of 11, and due to start at 6pm; it features The Rocket v Trump.
Can't resist a bet on Trump (-2.5) at 7/4 here. Ronnie was pretty much gifted last night's match against Wilson. The Rocket is still out of sorts, and nowhere near his best. Trump's long potting, breakbuilding, and all round exceptional safety play should be too much for Ronnie, so a 6-3 (or better) victory looks quite possible. He'll also be eager to get back on the winning trail having just lost out to Robertson in last Sunday week's epic UK championship final.
Also did a treble with the two other selections.
That one lands comfortably
6-1 to the juddernaut..0 -
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Selby v Jack in 2nd semi of World Grand Prix tonight at 7pm? on ITV4.
Nothing of appeal in the last two matches - atm anyway. Selby is 1/4 to beat Lisowski who's 29/10. So, with the odds being so cramped, there's no Selby on the handicap appeal either.
I'm glad Trump is 8/15 to win it out, as that's a few ticks (as they say ) shorter than what I'd like...... 8/11 would appeal, but then, on it's own, that's a bit short for a single.
Just for the interest; and it may well be a foregone conclusion early on; I'll do Selby to win by 5-6 frames at 18/5. That's about the only bit of value to be had as far as I can see.
I hope Lisowski wins, and if it's close at midsession I won't be too disappointed, as I won't have much on at 18/5; which seems fair enough pricewise for a small bet.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »Selby v Jack in 2nd semi of World Grand Prix tonight at 7pm? on ITV4.
Nothing of appeal in the last two matches - atm anyway. Selby is 1/4 to beat Lisowski who's 29/10. So, with the odds being so cramped, there's no Selby on the handicap appeal either.
I'm glad Trump is 8/15 to win it out, as that's a few ticks (as they say ) shorter than what I'd like...... 8/11 would appeal, but then, on it's own, that's a bit short for a single.
Just for the interest; and it may well be a foregone conclusion early on; I'll do Selby to win by 5-6 frames at 18/5. That's about the only bit of value to be had as far as I can see.
I hope Lisowski wins, and if it's close at midsession I won't be too disappointed, as I won't have much on at 18/5; which seems fair enough pricewise for a small bet. Down the swanney already. 2-1 to Jack. 0 -
World Grand Prix - Today Sunday 20/12/20 1pm ITV4.
Final (19) Judd Trump v Jack Lisowski
Match Odds: Trump 1/6 Lisowski 4/1
Very difficult to find a decent bet in this at north of evens; so I've gone the 'paper tipster' route and picked out a few at short odds in the #other markets category for a punting interest today.
#Anything bar straight win, or the handicap markets are considered as "other" by me.
My thinking in regards to this match is that it will be a landslide by "The Juddernaut" , and that has mainly induced my reasoning towards these selections.
I think first and foremost that it will be an open match, and that Trump will have more chances than Jack, who may just be happy to be there.
So going the paper tipster route, I will do a points recommendation. 10 points being the maximum; and 1 not necessarily the minimum ie .25pts win, .5pts win etc...
Selections are:
Under 15.5 total frames 3pts EVS
First eight frames winner Judd Trump 3pts 8/15
Under 12.5 50+ breaks 3pts 11/10
Over 2.5 Judd Trump centuries 3pts 6/5
Any player to get a 147 0.5pts 18/1
Judd Trump -3.5 frames 3pts 4/6
Over 3.5 Match Centuries 3pts EVS
That's all for this year 0 -
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If I'm hoping the NI man (hope he wins regardless how the others do) wins, I'll be happy enough the first three obliged
I think Higgins is vulnerable nowadays myself, as he seems to make more mistakes than he used to 5 or so years ago... Not the player he was.. I'm hoping the no pub factor (as some poster mentioned on this forum somewhere) will be to Mark's advantage :pac: Surely Yan is good enough to win 2/3 frames - that was the thinking there...0 -
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Maguire v Bingtao. Maguire (-1.5) 13/10
Higgins v Ronnie. Ronnie (-2.5) 13/10
Pays a bit over 4/1.
I think Maguire's experience, and that Ronnie will be too good is the reason for this speculative (although, at just over 5/4 each they're short enough for a 'speculative' double :P) , and more of an interest than anything else investment.
Nothing really jumps off the page as betworthy; maybe Ronnie outright at 11/10.
I think Gilbert is playing the winner of the Maguire/Yan match, and will most likely have a good look at that when it's priced up....
EDIT had a look, and it's Bingham to play the winner of that match... Another headscratcher... Would have fancied Gilbert in that encounter, but can't see Dave beating Ronnie Think I'll have to take on Bingham all the same; regardless who wins this afternoon, as he was dire last night was Stuart. 0 -
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