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06-02-2019, 18:58   #61
SleetAndSnow
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Looked pretty severe on the west and south coasts there on the 6.1 news
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06-02-2019, 18:58   #62
Larbre34
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So Orange for Munster and Connacht and Yellow for the rest? And probably a name by this time tomorrow?
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06-02-2019, 18:59   #63
squarecircles
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Originally Posted by Villain View Post
ECMWF has shifted a little but still showing damaging gusts, especially in West



you reckon its going to be an orange warning for the west?


have to dust off the storm names.
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06-02-2019, 19:07   #64
munsterlegend
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So Orange for Munster and Connacht and Yellow for the rest? And probably a name by this time tomorrow?
Not sure Munster will be too bad but Connacht and Ulster could be Orange alright.
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06-02-2019, 19:27   #65
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The last named storm was Deirdre on Dec 15th, but we did have another significant enough wind event on Dec 18th that was never named. Looks like first of 2019 will be Friday then!
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06-02-2019, 19:28   #66
Comhra
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What model is that?
ARPEGE. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpe...ode=11&map=330

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06-02-2019, 20:32   #67
M.T. Cranium
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The miss-to-north factor may be less relevant with this low if the modelling is correct as the strongest gradients are further from the low centre than is often the case, at both surface and upper levels. In terms of the strongest winds, it looks like a direct hit on Connacht and west Ulster. Assuming the track is fairly well defined now, it becomes a matter of assessing whether that tight gradient stays around 53-55 N or begins to move out towards the low itself. But if you look at most model output, the circulation is fairly benign within 100 miles of the low. The low has now developed east of Newfoundland and is around 49N 47W.
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06-02-2019, 20:49   #68
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ECM 12Z has shifted slightly N bringing the strongest winds into the W, showing up around 120 km/h on the coasts, 80 to 100 km/h overland, possible higher gusts up to 110 km/h overland in places , more so higher ground. Not nailed down yet. More tweaks to come perhaps.

To note second round of strong winds in the W early Sat morning.







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06-02-2019, 21:01   #69
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ARPEGE 12Z




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06-02-2019, 21:03   #70
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The Northern factor is going to be present with this low. Models will start pushing it northwards as we go on. North Western Coast will get strong winds but nothing severe as this system will peak intensity 600km out to our west.
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06-02-2019, 21:17   #71
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It looks a bit of a yawnfest and has downgraded enough from yesterday to mean wet and windy!!
Next
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06-02-2019, 21:19   #72
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Met eireann RTE News 6.00pm show a second low approaching much futher South with Kerry Limerick Clare Galway all taking a hit. The more northerly low is shown merging around midday Friday just off the northwest coast with the low approaching from a more southerly direction
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06-02-2019, 21:53   #73
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HIRLAM 12Z , quite similar to the ECM







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06-02-2019, 22:09   #74
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GFS 18Z has the Low slightly weaker, now only bordering on Orange alert.
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06-02-2019, 22:11   #75
Little snowy old me
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Winter 2018/2019 will be notable for one thing.... downgrades. This storm looks like nothing more than a typical winter gale.
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