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06-02-2019, 08:51   #31
coillsaille
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What usually happens is the storm goes north enough to keep the strongest winds off the north coast.
True I've seen that happen many times in my years following the forum. But usually, if my memory is correct, the models show the low centred over the northwest then closer to arrival time it shifts north enough so that only the north coast gets the strongest winds.

But in this case, with some models showing the centre over the Galway area, don't we need a shift much further north than usually occurs to dodge the bullet? Just curious.
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06-02-2019, 08:54   #32
Loughc
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Could this pull in cold air like last year.
I'm guessing no.... just based off the trends from this winter.
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06-02-2019, 09:07   #33
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True I've seen that happen many times in my years following the forum. But usually, if my memory is correct, the models show the low centred over the northwest then closer to arrival time it shifts north enough so that only the north coast gets the strongest winds.

But in this case, with some models showing the centre over the Galway area, don't we need a shift much further north than usually occurs to dodge the bullet? Just curious.
If it was centred over Galway then yes we would. I don't see that on the GFS, ECM or UKMO if I'm looking at the correct charts. The storm seems to be off the northwest coast on all of them three.
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06-02-2019, 09:07   #34
Artane2002
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I'm guessing no.... just based off the trends from this winter.
Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment
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06-02-2019, 09:10   #35
Loughc
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Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment
But the rest of the month the forecast is showing higher than average temps?
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06-02-2019, 09:11   #36
Artane2002
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But the rest of the month the forecast is showing higher than average temps?
I'm talking about the weekend only.
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06-02-2019, 09:12   #37
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I've a flight out of Dublin airport on Saturday morning

Should I be worried about it being cancelled?
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06-02-2019, 09:13   #38
Loughc
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I'm talking about the weekend only.
Ah apologies... I thought the original poster was asking if the storm was going to bring with it a cold weather pattern for longer than the weekend, similar to late Feb last year.
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06-02-2019, 09:20   #39
coillsaille
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If it was centred over Galway then yes we would. I don't see that on the GFS, ECM or UKMO if I'm looking at the correct charts. The storm seems to be off the northwest coast on all of them three.
Apologies you are correct. I just quickly skimmed the thread this morning without having woken up fully and got the wind speed charts mixed up in my head with the pressure charts.
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06-02-2019, 10:10   #40
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Fair enough, I can understand that would get a bit tiresome. Tbh the only weather thread I've ever followed on here was the beast from the east one last year. Other than that I never look at the weather forum. I logged onto boards this morning and saw this thread on the front page so just thought I'd asked for an opinion from someone.

Apologies to GoneHome for the aggressive reply.
Off topic but your flight should operate as normal, I wouldn’t be worrying
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06-02-2019, 10:23   #41
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I never understand why people think a storm will last 2/3 days. They never ever do, and even when they do only the largest cause disruption for 2/3 days.

And with wind events, we can't actually tell you, as often it's a nowcast in relation to storms and disruption.
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06-02-2019, 10:33   #42
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More of a spread in the models this morning. ECM is the most consistent tracking the center along the W / NW coasts keeping the strongest winds more to the Southern half of the country, not as strong as earlier runs but still up to 120 kph in coastal areas and 80 to 110 overland strongest in coastal counties.

ICON, ARPEGE tracking bit further N keeping strongest winds in W / NW.

UKMO gone very much more a Northerly track on it's own.

Would stick close to the ECM on this and lean towards ARPEGE

Bit to ho yet to pin this one down.....as ever.
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06-02-2019, 10:42   #43
Rebelbrowser
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Originally Posted by Billy Mays View Post
Fair enough, I can understand that would get a bit tiresome. Tbh the only weather thread I've ever followed on here was the beast from the east one last year. Other than that I never look at the weather forum. I logged onto boards this morning and saw this thread on the front page so just thought I'd asked for an opinion from someone.

Apologies to GoneHome for the aggressive reply.
As a regular on here, and with a flight out of Cork at 2.30pm on Friday, i was worried too to be fair to you. Think even at that time (more in the current progged time for the storm) I should be fine. Flying to England and with those winds blowing that direction too (albeit not necssarily at 30,000 ft I appreciate) i reckon it'll just be a much quicker flight!
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06-02-2019, 10:43   #44
Meteorite58
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Mod Note: Need to keep it civil and stay on topic please.
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06-02-2019, 10:46   #45
SteelyDanJalapeno
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Thread title says "chat", I dont see what the problem is asking if the weather could affect a flight, heaven forbid
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