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05-02-2019, 18:21   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Storm Erik : Friday 8th February 2019

ECMWF has been consistent now at progging a significant low pressure system near Ireland for Friday.

On the latest 12z it has sped up its progression a little and now has a significant storm hitting the spine of Ireland on Friday.

One to watch.

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05-02-2019, 18:23   #2
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850hPa winds - treat this a measure of the possible peak wind gust speed in a sting jet scenario.

Showing 75kts locally.

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05-02-2019, 18:34   #3
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Yep one to watch, latest UKMO fax.

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05-02-2019, 18:50   #4
Mount Vesuvius
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12z ICON currently showing 100kph plus gusts moving up over the country through Friday Afternoon. Subject to Upgrades and downgrades however.

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05-02-2019, 19:06   #5
Meteorite58
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Got there before me Sleety_ rain, shut down the other thread .

A potential storm on Fri looks more likely on the latest runs, the track now more over Ireland and deepening as it approaches the coast on the latest ECM 12Z and showing some very tight isobars overland. A bit to go and changes could occur but certainly worth keeping a close eye on. This was originally tracking further North and was not being shown as strong , it has upped wind speeds over the last couple of runs.

Currently showing damaging wind speeds over land during Friday. Could go up or down so will need to keep an eye on forecasts.












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05-02-2019, 19:13   #6
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Close up of current projected gusts, all subject to change .









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05-02-2019, 19:21   #7
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UKMO 12Z






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05-02-2019, 19:26   #8
boocat
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Close up of current projected gusts, all subject to change
Certainly looks nasty . Red on them charts won't be the only red well see if that comes off.
At least the weather is looking interesting
(Hopefully not that interesting)
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05-02-2019, 19:33   #9
Monkeynut
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UKMO 12Z







The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?
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05-02-2019, 19:43   #10
munsterlegend
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The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?
Looks a lot further north alright which is usually how these storms go as in drifting north.
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05-02-2019, 19:44   #11
Meteorite58
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The UKMO 12Z has it much further north than the EMCWF?
Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.






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05-02-2019, 19:51   #12
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Could this pull in cold air like last year.
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05-02-2019, 19:54   #13
munsterlegend
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[quote="Meteorite58;109343847"]Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.


The South seem to avoid the worst here though as opposed to ECM or it is it just a timing issue?
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05-02-2019, 19:56   #14
Monkeynut
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Could this pull in cold air like last year.

I haven't a clue to be saying yes or no.


But if you mean storm Emma, I would say we had very cold air from an easterly over us, then i think Emma came from the South/SouthWest into that very cold air we had already upon us, that's how people got so much snow.



I think its too warm now for that, with this storm, so we will just have wind, I don't know about rain!!!


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Quote:
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Very similar track this far out but the ECM arrives earlier and and moves off quicker on the latest runs.

The South seem to avoid the worst here though as opposed to ECM or it is it just a timing issue?

I was thinking the same, but the ECM was showing wind speeds too. So it makes it look more countrywide. I guess.... well it did to me, not knowing much.

What is the UKMO on wind speeds?

Last edited by Monkeynut; 05-02-2019 at 20:01.
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05-02-2019, 20:38   #15
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At the moment the UKMO showing the strongest winds more S than the ECM, don't have wind speeds for Ireland but below is wind gusts for the UK so probably a bit higher for the Southern half of Ireland going by these charts and higher again on windward coasts.



21.00 Fri Gusts mph

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