Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
26-01-2019, 16:14   #61
munsterlegend
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 4,195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
The GFS-P is showing widespread heavy snow for Tuesday from south Dublin to Limerick and southwards. The track of this low pressure will be crucial and could change quite a bit. If this tracks further north, rain would be more likely across the south, if it tracks further south, many places staying dry, until sleet and snow showers later in the

The GFS-P also showing plenty of snow across the country on Wednesday and more on Thursday and Friday. Perhaps the GFS-P is totally going overboard on the snow potential for Ireland over the next 6 days. Thursday and Friday is also very far away in terms of what could happen, so not much point spending too much time on those days just yet.

The operational GFS has Ireland missing out on that low pressure system on Tuesday with rain passing to our south. and wintry showers across the country later in the day.

As for Thursday/Friday the GFS has a marginal mix of rain and sleet across the country with hill snow.

If the GFS-P proves correct (which I think is unlikely), then there is a chance for disruptive snow in parts of Ireland from Tuesday onwards.
I think i’ll wait for the ECM! Hopefully it shows something similar.
munsterlegend is offline  
Advertisement
26-01-2019, 16:15   #62
JanuarySnowstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,716
The gfs p didn't come out. That's the 06z run which in the chopping and changing at the moment is well out of date
JanuarySnowstor is offline  
26-01-2019, 16:19   #63
JCX BXC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 15,669
Quote:
Originally Posted by torres9kop View Post
Will it snow in the Dublin 4 area on Tuesday does anyone know?
You've asked this question on every single event the last few years, and you always get the same answer of "that's a ridiculous question".

Honestly, do you think we're going to magically be able to tell you something different this time or are you just trolling?
JCX BXC is offline  
26-01-2019, 16:20   #64
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 9,581
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
The gfs p didn't come out. That's the 06z run which in the chopping and changing at the moment is well out of date
I don't think it matters too much. The exact tracking of this low is still up in the air. I think it will be tomorrow sometime before we get a better idea of where it's going to make it's impact. Exciting model watching over the next few days.
Gonzo is offline  
(2) thanks from:
26-01-2019, 17:08   #65
Gaoth Laidir
Registered User
 
Gaoth Laidir's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 3,418
Regardless of the track of the low, the airmass looks too modified for anything of note, away from hills and mountains.
Gaoth Laidir is offline  
Advertisement
26-01-2019, 17:16   #66
munsterlegend
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 4,195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir View Post
Regardless of the track of the low, the airmass looks too modified for anything of note, away from hills and mountains.
Putting this week to one side the met office are bullish of a cold/very cold February. What’s your thinking on this?
munsterlegend is offline  
Thanks from:
26-01-2019, 18:01   #67
eastmayo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 553
The eagle on radio 1 just said plenty off snow showers for the West and northwest monday nite and Tuesday.
eastmayo is offline  
Thanks from:
26-01-2019, 18:05   #68
torres9kop
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 263
Quote:
Originally Posted by JCX BXC View Post
You've asked this question on every single event the last few years, and you always get the same answer of "that's a ridiculous question".

Honestly, do you think we're going to magically be able to tell you something different this time or are you just trolling?
So thats a no then?
torres9kop is offline  
26-01-2019, 18:17   #69
Kermit.de.frog
Registered User
 
Kermit.de.frog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,999
ECM bringing that shortwave to our south that bit closer on Tuesday. Be interesting to see how the frontal zone lies there. As Gonzo mentioned could be a more significant snow risk here.
Kermit.de.frog is offline  
Advertisement
26-01-2019, 18:17   #70
SleetAndSnow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,687
in general, do we tend to get much from these ''channel low'' events that the UKMO, GFS/P and ECM seem to be all in agreement about now at 72hrs? Netweather is very excited about it as the south there should do well enough, but im assuming we dont usually do very well out of them and if we did it would be the far south coast of Ireland?
SleetAndSnow is offline  
Thanks from:
26-01-2019, 18:36   #71
Kermit.de.frog
Registered User
 
Kermit.de.frog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,999
ECM bringing the precipitation well north from that system Monday night. Definite snow risk over the vast bulk of the country.
Kermit.de.frog is offline  
26-01-2019, 18:54   #72
Kermit.de.frog
Registered User
 
Kermit.de.frog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,999
ICON very similar to the ECM.

Big change for us for Tuesday morning in particular. And with winds off shore in the east we are in the zone as well.

Kermit.de.frog is offline  
26-01-2019, 18:54   #73
sdanseo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 7,880
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
ECM bringing the precipitation well north from that system Monday night. Definite snow risk over the vast bulk of the country.
Nice to ECM showing a bit of potential.

GFS snow charts are worthless unless temps are -8 or below on other models (really we want -10 on GFS). It's shown snow so many times where none has materialised, in my location at least, enough times now to lose count. And that's just this season!

HIRLAM, when in range, has been very accurate for precipitation type, especially in big bands. Less show in showers and location of showers, but these are much harder for any model to predict exactly.

Last edited by sdanseo; 26-01-2019 at 18:58.
sdanseo is offline  
26-01-2019, 18:56   #74
Rougies
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,320
ECM snow depth for midnight Tuesday. Looks about right to me, ie. accumulations mainly on higher ground above 300m. I'd imagine many will see snow falling over the next few days but accumulations at low levels will only be temporary under heavier falls. The usual Atlantic stuff, but I'll take it over nothing.



Rougies is offline  
(3) thanks from:
26-01-2019, 19:02   #75
Larbre34
Registered User
 
Larbre34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 10,394
A family funeral has arisen in Duncannon, South Wexford that will take place on Tuesday lunchtime. We'll be driving from home in Dublin, down and back same day.

Thoughts about potential travel disruption? Or is my thinking correct that it'll be very windy, cold and miserable with irritating squally mixed precip that is unlikely to affect the roads on my route?
Larbre34 is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet