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26-01-2019, 01:08   #31
Kermit.de.frog
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Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 26-01-2019 at 01:20.
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26-01-2019, 04:21   #32
Kermit.de.frog
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As you were on the 00z GFS and UKMO. Potentially disruptive snowfall in the west Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. Less further east (biggest risk here is on Tuesday as organised bands of showers cross the country).

Both also dangling the carrot of potentially significant frontal snowfall toward the end of next week but at this range a lot to be resolved.
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26-01-2019, 04:40   #33
NSAman
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Disruptive snow? ... it’s -25c here at the moment...we had 8inches of snow thursday an inch today and another 4-10 inches expected Sunday and next week the high is supposed to be -18c... oh how I love Irish weather warnings..
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26-01-2019, 05:33   #34
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
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Disruptive snow? ... it’s -25c here at the moment...we had 8inches of snow thursday an inch today and another 4-10 inches expected Sunday and next week the high is supposed to be -18c... oh how I love Irish weather warnings..
Ah right, sure no need for a weather warning for Ireland so!
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26-01-2019, 06:02   #35
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Disruptive snow? ... it’s -25c here at the moment...we had 8inches of snow thursday an inch today and another 4-10 inches expected Sunday and next week the high is supposed to be -18c... oh how I love Irish weather warnings..

Imagine if you got that weather in July when no one was prepared for it... that's what it is like here.
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26-01-2019, 06:33   #36
Graces7
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Try 20 feet of snow as some of our folk are under in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland! Same every winter so they are well used and well prepared...
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26-01-2019, 07:24   #37
JanuarySnowstor
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If you look carefully you see some subtle changes overnight
1) Tuesday has become more marginal for the South with proper cold both delayed and shortened in severity. Indeed gfs is kind of alone in forecasting -8 uppers - and it over egged last week's fail by about 2 degrees.
2) Most are back to over blowing the low on Thursday. Last night's ecm for example had a foot of snow for parts of the West. Now cold rain.
3) Still no heights to our North other than transitory so the long wait for a decent cold spell goes on...

So not as you were, more marginal for most of us this morning. BUT still quite a risk for Tuesday so one to watch closely!!
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26-01-2019, 08:04   #38
pauldry
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Yes we may get a day that it snows if they predict 3.

But Kermit says itl snow so thats good
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26-01-2019, 08:13   #39
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I'm hoping he's wrong. I've to drive the length of the country on Thursday.
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26-01-2019, 09:57   #40
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How it stands with the current ECM 0Z . To note that this trend has held now for a number of days and if anything it shows the potential for wintry precipitation increasing with more chance of snow if somewhat wet in places especially elevated ground, hills and mountains. 850 hPa temps about -6C to -7C on Tues, bit less on Weds and Thurs but the pressure drops and very low on Thurs , showing 955 hPa off the W coast atm , about 970 hPa overland. A long way off and not included in this thread but the ECM currently showing a right dumping of snow in the W, NW early Thurs , but this is very complex weather by then and very uncertain how it will pan out.

















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26-01-2019, 10:11   #41
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GFS 06Z soundings showing increased chance for snow accumulations at Sea level in the W / NW Tues evening into Weds .

W of Ireland

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26-01-2019, 10:18   #42
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Meanwhile icon has it quite marginal on Tuesday, high grounds will get some accumulation. It also shows a band of snow crossing the country on Thursday.one to watch. Uk will get quite a significant amount of snow this week
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26-01-2019, 10:30   #43
Artane2002
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Few then to many 10 day stepping stones, not screwed - it’s computer models weather and super fun trying to work out what’s happening- lighten up and come up here to the shallows enjoy the surface don’t be so serious


Forgot to quote artane2000 but I’m replying to him
By screwed I mean we got nothing despite the great background signals and the failed easterly.
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26-01-2019, 10:38   #44
munsterlegend
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Meanwhile icon has it quite marginal on Tuesday, high grounds will get some accumulation. It also shows a band of snow crossing the country on Thursday.one to watch. Uk will get quite a significant amount of snow this week
These rarely work out for most of the country save for the far north/north west. Anyway hope for the best!
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26-01-2019, 11:19   #45
Kermit.de.frog
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Yes we may get a day that it snows if they predict 3.

But Kermit says itl snow so thats good
You'll get Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. Northwest particularly well positioned. Don't want to go in to what happens on Thursday because it's too fluid and may need a separate thread depending on how things evolve and how busy this one gets.

In response to JS it's important not to focus too much attention on the temperature profile at elevation here - with low thickness in the 1,000 - 500 mb range those temperatures are progged to be at a lower elevation than normal so there is a real compensation effect.

I wouldn't worry too much about that.

Jeez ya'll need to relax and chill out

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 26-01-2019 at 11:48.
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