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25-01-2019, 23:03   #16
munsterlegend
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[quote="Meteorite58;109243935"]528 dam line well South of Ireland on Tues, plenty of precipitation feeding in from embedded troughs in a brisk NW'ly


Unfortunately 528 doesn’t guarantee snow as per GL’s snow requirements!!
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25-01-2019, 23:05   #17
Artane2002
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I think the uppers are ok, the thicknesses are nice and low and the dew point is decently low. Troughs could bring heavier precip (snow more likely in heavier showers) if they form. It's not all about the uppers. The ECM brings a pocket of -8 uppers too btw for what it's worth.
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25-01-2019, 23:06   #18
Meteorite58
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[QUOTE=munsterlegend;109243974]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
528 dam line well South of Ireland on Tues, plenty of precipitation feeding in from embedded troughs in a brisk NW'ly


Unfortunately 528 doesn’t guarantee snow as per GL’s snow requirements!!
That's right but it's a good start .
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25-01-2019, 23:06   #19
Pangea
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Westies be like to the Easties
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25-01-2019, 23:12   #20
Kermit.de.frog
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All minimum variable requirements for snow would appear to be comfortably met based on the model guidance at the moment.

I really wouldn't worry about it.
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25-01-2019, 23:13   #21
JanuarySnowstor
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I've a strong feeling tonight we are on the cusp!! I expect some pretty decent upgrades by the morning
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25-01-2019, 23:14   #22
NMB
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January snow storm in the words of another poster “username checks out”
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25-01-2019, 23:24   #23
NMB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artane2002 View Post
I think the uppers are ok, the thicknesses are nice and low and the dew point is decently low. Troughs could bring heavier precip (snow more likely in heavier showers) if they form. It's not all about the uppers. The ECM brings a pocket of -8 uppers too btw for what it's worth.
Why you being modest ?
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25-01-2019, 23:26   #24
Artane2002
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Why you being modest ?
Because we've been getting screwed out of cold/snow all winter.
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25-01-2019, 23:31   #25
pauldry
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Yay!

Just turned on phone and see the thread Ive been waiting on all Winter.

Roll on the slushy mess

Though prob be freezing n ill be saying how are all these showers missing us
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25-01-2019, 23:31   #26
NMB
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Few then to many 10 day stepping stones, not screwed - it’s computer models weather and super fun trying to work out what’s happening- lighten up and come up here to the shallows enjoy the surface don’t be so serious


Forgot to quote artane2000 but I’m replying to him
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25-01-2019, 23:36   #27
Gaoth Laidir
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The pub run GFS charts posted above are, of course, the coldest of the models.

GFS Sounding for Galway area at the same time (13Z Tuesday). Cold enough for snow.



Now the ARPEGE. Rain.
[IMG]https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/sondagewrf/permanent/sondagearpegefr_202_454_96_0_1548459585.png
[/img]

850-1000 thicknesses 1287 versus 1317 dam. A huge difference.

The WRF and Arome soundings will be available closer to the time, but I wouldn't be so confident of a notable event at low levels.

Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 25-01-2019 at 23:44.
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25-01-2019, 23:41   #28
munsterlegend
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Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
I've a strong feeling tonight we are on the cusp!! I expect some pretty decent upgrades by the morning
Hmm you would have to jinx it wouldn’t you!
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25-01-2019, 23:43   #29
JCX BXC
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Model evolutions are certainly something to keep an eye on. I'll be looking at Tuesday to see how the situations develops anyway!

Hopefully something, anything! A nice covering of hail would be a conciliation at this point, the only white I've seen in this country this year has been in the actual kitchen freezer.
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26-01-2019, 00:13   #30
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Meh, looks like a standard north westerly, we had one earlier this week and it wasn't exactly exciting. Looks more of a westerly quadrant this time so more of the country effected I guess..
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