Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
08-02-2019, 13:11   #496
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,094
There are tenative signs that the MJO may go to phase 8, if so that could mean the door opens up for blocking to our north west from any scandi high that develops. It's an outside chance for now.

However if it does turn out to be a cold end to February, kudos to yansno for predicting it a few weeks back.
nacho libre is offline  
(5) thanks from:
Advertisement
08-02-2019, 13:37   #497
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 9,766
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
here is this mornings GFS ensembles for Dublin. You can see the thick green line is the GFS operational run, it's kinda on it's own for now with the cold spell. However there is a definite cooling trend kicking from about the 16th of February. We may lose the easterly on the next GFS run and perhaps have it back again on a later run.



The next 3 days will be very important model watching to see if this cooling trend into a potential easterly has any realistic chance of happening. The ensembles have also turned a good deal dryer overall for Dublin compared to what was being modeled a few days ago.
Gonzo is offline  
(3) thanks from:
08-02-2019, 13:47   #498
highdef
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 3,634
I'm getting (Invalid img) where your chart should be.
highdef is offline  
08-02-2019, 13:51   #499
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 9,766
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by highdef View Post
I'm getting (Invalid img) where your chart should be.
that's odd, I've looked at this post from several different devices and it's showing up grand on them all.
Gonzo is offline  
Thanks from:
08-02-2019, 13:52   #500
sryanbruen
Registered User
 
sryanbruen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 10,091
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
that's odd, I've looked at this post from several different devices and it's showing up grand on them all.
It's fine for me.
sryanbruen is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
08-02-2019, 14:09   #501
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,094
Quote:
Originally Posted by sryanbruen View Post
It's fine for me.
Works for me too.
nacho libre is offline  
(2) thanks from:
08-02-2019, 14:18   #502
highdef
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 3,634
Went back to legacy site on my android device and it's fine now. Weird.
highdef is offline  
(2) thanks from:
08-02-2019, 17:03   #503
Mortelaro
Registered User
 
Mortelaro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 587
Very cold but Dry in our neck of the woods in a week or two on the 12zgfs
A shallow low near SE England will give snow there
All FI
Another variation on a theme
What will that spell do to average February temps,bring them in well under average probably
Mortelaro is offline  
08-02-2019, 17:07   #504
PokeHerKing
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 1,299
I can't chase another 10 dayer. Somebody PM me at T48.
PokeHerKing is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
08-02-2019, 17:36   #505
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 9,766
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mortelaro View Post
Very cold but Dry in our neck of the woods in a week or two on the 12zgfs
A shallow low near SE England will give snow there
All FI
Another variation on a theme
What will that spell do to average February temps,bring them in well under average probably
The 12zGFS has us narrowly missing out on a Beast, perhaps still some light snow showers in Leinster. This is still two weeks ago and will chop and change, the main thing we can take from this is the trend is definitely colder and all signs towards the Atlantic being cut off for the last 10 days of February. Knowing our luck the high will be too close to us when the time comes, but certainly some exciting model watching coming over the next week hopefully.



The GFS ensembles are still updating and several of them are going close to the freezer from about the 18th, will take a closer look when all the models have finished updating.
Gonzo is offline  
(2) thanks from:
08-02-2019, 17:38   #506
sryanbruen
Registered User
 
sryanbruen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 10,091
Meanwhile, in the more reliable end of FI, the GFS 12z showed the prospects of a very mild Valentine's Day 2019 with a southerly flow of air. Isobars to Ireland coming all the way from North Africa.

I would think there'd be a possibility of maxima of 12-14c, maybe even 15c in the odd spot?



sryanbruen is offline  
08-02-2019, 23:51   #507
Rebelbrowser
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,446


Day 11 so this is in the bag.....
Rebelbrowser is offline  
(3) thanks from:
09-02-2019, 00:00   #508
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 9,766
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebelbrowser View Post

Day 11 so this is in the bag.....
not a great run tonight, we get a brief toppler on the 18th/19th of February, then high pressure moves from the Atlantic on the 20th and mild Atlantic after that with no sign of proper easterlies in tonight's run.
Gonzo is offline  
09-02-2019, 03:19   #509
hatrickpatrick
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 15,970
Terrible FV3 18z tonight but the ECM is still trying to establish blocks and disrupt the jet stream, so in my view we wait for the overnight and morning runs to compare. We're still very much potentially in the game here.
hatrickpatrick is offline  
10-02-2019, 23:08   #510
Harry Palmr
Registered User
 
Harry Palmr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 28,664
The outlook seems to be developing continental HP, Atlantic interlude, developing continental HP. The weather is on a loop!
Harry Palmr is offline  
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search