Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

Deleted User wrote: »

So are Greece.

That's been done to death in other threads. You might ask the Greeks why they decided to stick with the EU rather than "Grexit". (Hint: they threw themselves under a succession of buses, but unlike the English were smart enough to realise that leaving the EU was not a wise move.)

EU not signing off on allowing London to clear trades.

Lets see how they react to that!

Leroy42 wrote: »

You already know.

They will star the whole "EU needs us more', 'CoL is the only way the EU even works', 'CoL survived the blitz, a bit of bureaucracy is nothing' (that was actually an opinion piece at the weekend!).

It will be labelled as the EU trying to punish the Uk for simply looking to reclaim sovereignty and proves why it is better to leave since something or other.

Well there will be a lot of people and organisations with deep pockets who will be sweating a little more and putting pressure on the politicians.

Donald Trump wrote: »

Well there will be a lot of people and organisations with deep pockets who will be sweating a little more and putting pressure on the politicians.

Would still more finservices' pressure on the Tories, have better prospects of success now, relative to the last 4+ years?

They're anything if not pragmatic, and Dublin, Paris, Luxembourg and Frankfurt (also others in & outside EU27) have all done well out of brexoding CoL entities so far -Dublin best amongst them all, by some reports- and with a fair bit left to brexode still.

Brexit supporters and assorted other red top readers can all get excited by EU-blaming messaging: at the end of the day (...financial year...) it's national Ministries of Finance in Ireland, France, Germany <etc> who will be reaping the dividends of that rhetoric, not No.11 Downing Street, still less the average taxpaying John Smith in GB.

Donald Trump wrote: »

If there is one thing that financial services hate it's regulation.

There was an arrogance on the ground over there that being blocked wasn't really ever going to happen because the EU needed the City to provide financial services. So plenty thought that they would be definitely continuing on as normal - just with less regulations and bureaucracy

Is it?

We can't be talking about the *same* financial services here.

I'm talking about insurers and asset managers (mostly gone to Lux), investment banks (mostly gone to Paris & Frankfurt), day traders (mostly gone to Amsterdam), corpo law firms (sprinkled everywhere)...'above-board' services in need of permanent MIFID, DAC6 <etc> compliance, and hundreds of entities and hundreds of €billions' worth of assets (emerging rumours of €tn threshold reached, actually) already moved out of the CoL in the name of commercial pragmatism. The FT is full of notices over the past couple of years at least, and that is the visible part of the brexoding CoL iceberg.

Might you be talking about tax advisers/structurers with permalinks to offshore Crown territories and the like? For those, I can well conceive that regulation must be horrendous indeed, and that they would be pushing/underwriting the ERG's notion of Singapore on Thames.

Donald Trump wrote: »

I think you might be getting confused.

Edit: Just to add. You should have a read of this to get an idea of how some people think there https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-13/the-city-of-london-wants-to-have-its-brexit-cake-and-eat-it

No, I don't think so.

Having such office neighbours, and occasional fag break compadres, as Columbia Threadneedle's brexoded lot, I'm well aware that Brexit hasn't killed off the CoL's preeminence as a capital turnplate, nor is it going to short-term at least.

But 'financial services' covers an awfully large scope of activities, and this plus ça change take on the future of the CoL (-by the CoL itself) reminds me an awful lot about the misplaced 'they need us more than we need them' ideological take on the Brexit balance of power in other activity sectors.

The byline of your linked article is well-phrased, in that respect: This is confidence (ND: of Carney/the CoL) bordering on complacency. Particularly in view of the current situation (and Dombrowski's latest), some 9 months after that Bloomberg article.

ambro25 wrote: »

No, I don't think so.

Having such office neighbours, and occasional fag break compadres, as Columbia Threadneedle's brexoded lot, I'm well aware that Brexit hasn't killed off the CoL's preeminence as a capital turnplate, nor is it going to short-term at least.

But 'financial services' covers an awfully large scope of activities, and this plus ça change take on the future of the CoL (-by the CoL itself) reminds me an awful lot about the misplaced 'they need us more than we need them' ideological take on the Brexit balance of power in other activity sectors.

The byline of your linked article is well-phrased, in that respect: This is confidence (ND: of Carney/the CoL) bordering on complacency. Particularly in view of the current situation (and Dombrowski's latest), some 9 months after that Bloomberg article.

There is a flaw in your logic. You point to an article that Luxembourg are the biggest beneficiaries of Brexit. That is a relative measure (how much of that pie they obtained relative to other countries) not an absolute one.


The Banks were always going to have to move, or set up, some operations within the EU. That was a given. Of those operations, you can identify which locations benefited most.


What is at stake here is the clearing of Euro trades. There was never a real belief in the City that that was realistically at threat. Or do you think that they have already accepted that they won't have this going forward? Because it isn't actually decided yet and is likely that they will keep it. If it goes from London, that has huge implications for jobs and business there.



If the City was given what it wanted, on the terms that it wanted, it would have free range to profit from regulatory arbitrage.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

True but what shocks me is the complete death of base self-interest from these people. They've placed themselves directly in the firing line just before this either blows up or they capitulate. Someone I know in DIT told me that Liam Fox was apparently quite reasonable but his replacement, Liz Truss never shows up there at all.

They're supposed to be "levelling up" the UK but they're on course to trash what remains of its manufacturing sector.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/09/18/credit-global-britain-liam-foxs-wto-candidacy-has-got-far/

Interesting to see the Telegraph claiming the success of Fox in getting to the second round is a confirmation of the success of Global Britain

blinding wrote:

There is something about Empires that is hard to get out of mentally ! !

Speak for yourself.

blinding wrote: »

Its hard to get away from the Mentality of Empire !

Has the 26 Counties ever really come to grips that it left the British Empire.

There is something about Empires that is hard to get out of mentally ! !

huh?

His thoughts on the refusal to extend the transition period

It is becoming clearer by the day, especially in the light of the predictable resurgence of coronavirus, that Johnson’s refusal to extend the Transition Period when he had the chance was a major and possibly catastrophic error of judgment. Far from putting pressure on the EU to ‘blink at the last minute’, it has left Britain woefully unready to cope even if there is a deal. As with the inevitability of an end to frictionless trade, the government was warned over and over again by business bodies and others that this would be the case but chose to ignore them.

. https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/less-than-hundred-days-left.html

Seth Brundle wrote: »

To be fair to Johnson, it wasn't his decision to reject an extension. Johnson would have little input into big decisions like that. Cummings makes all of the important decisions

To be fair? He is the PM, if he didn't have much input then that is, even more, his fault.

It will, I believe, no matter who took the decision, go down as one of the worst political decisions for many years. PM makes the final decision, regardless of who told him to.

TM was going to go down as one of the worst PM's ever, but this could tip the balance in favour of Johnson. They knew they weren't, and couldn't be ready in time. They knew COVID-19 was causing massive problems. But they ignored all of that on the gamble that the EU would fold.

davedanon wrote: »

He also says that the Leave crowd are basically running things

I wonder will the shower running the UK ever wake up from the dream?

They seem to be fighting in their sleep with the "enemies" they have already dispatched.

"Vote leave" won (congrats), the UK has left the EU, the "remoaners" were all vanquished and banished to the outer darkness.

However much they might wish it were not so, the EU is still going to exist & be around tomorrow for them to deal with & hammer out some sort of compromise.

As I've thought before, perhaps the anti-EU leading Tory politicians are just too old and stuck in their ways now to do anything else?