March 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 02-03-2021 10:06am

Table of Forecasts for March 2021

Despite the late posting, no late entries (and 29 forecasters entered) ... the max temps for 17th have been ranked for your interest and ease of scoring.

FORECASTER _______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max 17th loc'n

Pauldry ____________________ 8.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 105 __17_ 14.0 Phoenix Park

Adam240610 ________________7.8 _ 18.9 _ -2.9 _ 047 _ 141 ___5_ 16.1 Phoenix Park

Kindred Spirit _______________ 7.8 _ 17.0 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 130 __26_ 12.0 Oak Park

Tae laidir ___________________7.4 _ 17.0 _ -2.8 _ 083 _ 110 __27_ 11.8 Roches Point

Artane2002 _________________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -3.5 _ 085 _ 115 __18_ 13.7 Phoenix Park

WesternStorm _______________7.3 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 075 _ 104 ___3_ 16.8 Dublin A

Jpmarn ____________________ 7.2 _ 18.6 _ -3.9 _ 085 _ 110 __28_ 11.5 Oak Park

Gonzo _____________________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -3.9 _ 088 _ 112 __13t 14.2 Oak Park

Appledrop __________________ 7.2 _ 16.9 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 105 __24t 12.1 Phoenix Park

MrSkinner __________________ 7.2 _ 16.7 _ -3.6 _ 092 _ 112 __24t 12.1 Phoenix Park

M.T. Cranium ________________7.1 _ 18.8 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 __11_ 14.5 Moore Park

CirrusBusiness _______________7.1 _ 16.6 _ -4.3 _ 080 _ 090 __10_ 14.7 Oak Park

Funsterdelux ________________ 7.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 098 _ 095 ___6_ 15.5 Shannon

Bsal _______________________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 115 __22_ 12.5 Phoenix Park

Dasa29 _____________________7.0 _ 16.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___8_ 15.0 Mullingar

____ Con Sensus _____________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 14.1 Oak Park, Phoenix Park*

Dacogawa ___________________ 6.9 _ 17.8 _ -3.1 _ 135 _ 105 ___9_ 14.8 Oak Park

____ NormaL ________________ 6.8 _ 18.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 __(19) 13.5 loc'n by climatology

BLIZZARD7 __________________ 6.7 _ 21.7 _ -6.8 _ 090 _ 130 ___1_ 21.0 Casement

SleetAndSnow ________________ 6.7 _ 17.1 _ -3.2 _ 087 _ 102 __15t 14.1 Oak Park

john mac ____________________ 6.7 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 106 _ 099 ___4_ 16.2 Shannon

Sunflower3 ___________________6.6 _ 18.0 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 095 __15t 14.1 Newport

sryanbruen ___________________6.6 _ 16.0 _ -5.9 _ 090 _ 105 __20t 13.2 Shannon

Mr Stonewall _________________ 6.6 _ 14.8 _ -2.1 _ 077 _ 123 __23_ 12.4 Shannon

sdanseo _____________________ 6.5 _ 18.0 _ -6.0 _ 092 _ 115 ___2_ 17.3 Oak Park

DOCARCH ____________________6.5 _ 16.9 _ -2.8 _ 087 _ 112 ___7_ 15.1 Casement

200motels ___________________ 6.5 _ 16.1 _ -5.6 _ 088 _ 101 __19_ 13.4 Shannon

Danno ______________________ 6.2 _ 15.3 _ -6.4 _ 078 _ 145 __29__ 9.3 Oak Park

waterways ___________________ 5.9 _ 17.1 _ -5.2 _ 135 _ 103 __20t 13.2 Dublin A

eon1208 _____________________5.8 _ 17.0 _ -3.1 _ 099 _ 107 __13t 14.2 Oak Park

Joe Public ____________________5.5 _ 16.9 _ -4.6 _ 070 _ 120 __12_ 14.4 Belmullet

____________________________________________________

* Locations of choice for max 17th:

9 chose Oak Park (Con Sensus 3 pts if correct)

6 chose Phoenix Park (Con Sensus 2 pts if correct)

5 chose Shannon (Con Sensus 2 pts if correct)

2 chose Dublin A, Casement (Con Sensus 1 pt if correct)

1 chose Mullingar, Newport, Roches Point, Belmullet, Moorepark (Con Sensus 1 pt if any correct)

Con Sensus will receive zero if the max is elsewhere.

If we are all incorrect, 2 pts for the warmest of our choices and 1 pt for second warmest of them.

If any of us are correct, 3 pts to that forecaster (or forecasters) and other points based on rank of 2nd, 3rd choices only determined from within our selections.

superbonus of 1 or 2 pts available (the temp portion is worth 7/10 and there will be equal numbers awarded each level one to seven).

2 pt superbonus requires 7 + 3, 1 pt for 6 + 3 or 7 + 2.

Bsal · 02-03-2021 8:16pm

-3.0c Dublin airport this morning.

DOCARCH · 03-03-2021 8:20am

Bsal wrote: »

-3.0c Dublin airport this morning.

Confirmed as -3.1c.

appledrop · 06-03-2021 11:29am

New min -3.5 on 5th at Dublin Airport.

M.T. Cranium · 08-03-2021 10:06pm

After one week of March ...

IMT at 4.4 C, 2.0 below normal for the interval. This coming week is gradually warming but not at a very rapid pace yet.

MAX 11.4, MIN -3.5

PRC almost nil, 2% thanks to five of the eleven stations having other than spider webs in their rain gauges. Malin Head and Belmullet had almost all of what did fall, each at 9% of normal. This coming week looks a bit more average.

SUN at 90% (539/600), several locations above average but Cork very cloudy at only 14% (their three hours being the daily normal now, rather than a weekly average amount). Belmullet was brightest at 133%. This coming week not likely to add much to the account, week three looks brighter.

Early model forecast indications showing quite mild temperatures for 17th, would estimate 15 is current forecast value. ECM has west-northwest flow, GFS has weak southerly flow with high pressure closer. Both have quite warm uppers, looks quite spring-like in week three.

Tae laidir · 11-03-2021 10:08am

Gurteen and Moore Park 13.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 15-03-2021 5:07pm

After two weeks ...

IMT on 5.7 C, the second week average was 7.0 which was 0.2 above normal values.

MAX 13.6 and MIN -3.5.

PRC now 108% with the second week rather wet at 223 per cent of normal. Still, with today's small amounts and a dry week ahead, this only guarantees a finish of above 50 per cent, and 50 per cent of normal from today to end would result in an outcome near 75%.

SUN now at 86% with this past week rather dull, 82% of normal sunshine (490/600).

The 17th looms and forecasts indicate one of our warmer forecasts may do well. Our second highest (sdanseo) was 17.3 C. Not as optimistic for top value of 21.0.

appledrop · 16-03-2021 9:46am

New Max 16.1 Mt Dillion on 15th.

M.T. Cranium · 17-03-2021 8:01pm

The highest hourly temps were 14 at Phoenix Park and Johnstown Castle. That doesn't guarantee one of them will be the location as several others hit 13. Nobody selected Johnstown Castle so if that wins, the points will be based on how our actual choices did (but con sensus would score zero for that, normal would score 2/3 as it's not always among the warmer locations being prone to marine influences).

I'm sure somebody will get the more precise data when it's available. With this recent warmth the IMT was 6.2 after the 16th and I estimate around 6.5 now.

pauldry · 17-03-2021 10:56pm

Yes 14.9c at Johnstone
Pheonix Park close but maybe not close enough.

Incidentally we didnt break 10c in Sligo so another cold Paddys Day here after beautiful day yesterday

John mac · 17-03-2021 11:17pm

i thought it got to 16.2 in shannon ..

Tae laidir · 18-03-2021 10:24am

14.9 Johnstown Castle
14.6 Phoenix Park
13.4 Roches Point.

M.T. Cranium · 18-03-2021 8:53pm

Okay so for the location scoring only the predicted locations will be ranked, so the outcome for locations actually chosen looks like this ...

1. Phoenix Park 14.6

2. Roches Point 13.4, Casement, and Mullingar 13.3

3. Dublin 13.2, Moorepark 13.1, Oak Park 12.8, Shannon 12.4, Newport 11.4 and Belmullet 10.5.

To distribute enough points to keep the bonus scoring in line, we'll give the PP location 3, any of Roches Point, Casement or Mullingar 2, and any above 12 get one point.

Earlier I said that Con Sensus would score zero for location due to JC, but applying the scoring rules normally Con scores the same way as forecasters raw scores, so Con would get two points for location. Normal also gets two since JC is a warmish location most days although seldom warmest like yesterday.

The actual temperature will score from the 14.9 at JC, and the superbonus will score as if PP had two rather than three, other locations cannot qualify (so only one superbonus is possible and PP has to be the location, max temp points will be required, as it turned out, nobody in the top scoring group had PP as their location, so no superbonus issued).

Based on that, the scoring groups for temperature, with location points indicated within groups, are as follows:

7 pts _ Dasa29 (15.0, Mul) +2 = 9
______Dacogawa (14.8, OP) +1 = 8
______DOCARCH (15.1, Cas) +2 = 9
______Cirrus Business (14.7, OP) +1 = 8

6 pts _ M.T. Cranium (14.5, MP) +1 = 7
______funsterdelux (15.5, Sh) +1 = 7
______Joe Public (14.4, Bel) +0 = 6
______Gonzo (14.2, OP) +1 = 7
______Eon1208 (14.2, OP) +1 = 7

5 pts _ SleetAndSnow (14,1, OP) +1 = 6
______Sunflower3 (14.1, New) +0 = 5
________ Con Sensus (14.1) +2 = 7
______Pauldry (14.0, PP) __ +3 = 8
______Adam240610 (16.1, PP) +3 = 8
______Artane2002 (13.7 PP) +3 = 8

4 pts __John mac (16.2, Sh) +1 = 5
__________ NormaL (13.5) +2 = 6
______ 200motels (13.4, Sh) +1 = 5
______ waterways (13.2, Dub) +1 = 5
______ sryanbruen (13.2, Sh) +1 = 5

3 pts __ Western Storm (16.8, Dub) +1 = 4
_______Bsal (12.5, PP) +3 = 6
_______sdanseo (17.3, OP) +1 = 4
_______Mr Stonewall (12.4, Sh) +1 = 4

2 pts __ Appledrop (12.1, PP) +3 = 5
_______MrSkinner (12.1, PP) +3 = 5
_______Kindred Spirit (12.0, OP) +1 = 3
_______Tae laidir (11.8, RP) +2 = 4

1 pt ___ JPmarn (11.5, OP) +1 = 2
_______ Danno (9.3, OP) +1 = 2
_______ BLIZZARD7 (21.0, Cas) +2 = 3

_______________________________________

appledrop · 20-03-2021 12:23pm

Max of 16.1 again, this time at Valentia on 19th.

M.T. Cranium · 22-03-2021 8:44pm

After three weeks ...

IMT on 6.7 with the third week warm, 8.8 C (+1.7 C).

MAX 16.1 and MIN -3.5

PRC down to 76% of normal, with the week quite dry (10% of normal).

SUN edged up to 93% with the third week fairly bright at 108.5% (651/600).

Bonus scoring shown in previous post, 14.9 at Johnstown Castle with Phoenix Park our contest best location.

appledrop · 28-03-2021 6:28pm

It's looking like we will have a new Max on Monday or Tuesday of 17 or 18 degrees to finish our March contest.

M.T. Cranium · 28-03-2021 10:06pm

Yes looks that way. Update tomorrow but after 27 days the IMT on 6.9, each day that averages 10 will add 0.1 to that (more precisely, 9.7 today, 9.9 tomorrow, 10.0 Tuesday and 10.1 Wed would add 0.1 each day). So if it's warmer than that more would be added, don't think it will be much warmer so outcome most likely to be 7.3 C.

Nqp15hhu · 29-03-2021 4:50pm

Only 36mm of rain here so far, well below average.

appledrop · 29-03-2021 5:01pm

Met Eireann reporting on twitter that Phoneix Park reached 17.5 today.

We will see if that's confirmed in official stats tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 29-03-2021 5:54pm

After four weeks ...

IMT soared to 7.1, the week averaged 8.1 (0.7 above normal). IMT could end up as high as 7.4 C.

MAX could now be higher (17.5?) but had stayed 16.1 to today's reading, and MIN remains on -3.5 C.

PRC has increased to 90% of normal with the weekly average at our eleven locations 131% (Sunday was rather wet at some locations). Since it looks rather dry away from the northwest, the current rainfalls represent a finish of about 80 per cent of normal. Projected finish is 83%. The deficit is mainly in the southeast, the stations from Shannon to Mullingar and north have reached close to their monthly normals, the five south of that are closer to half in most cases. Belmullet and Malin Head may add some over the remainder of the month.

SUN has dipped back to 87% with this last week only 68% (407/600). Better sunshine tomorrow perhaps but the 31st rather cloudy so would estimate the finish close to 85%.

appledrop · 30-03-2021 8:47am

Max 17.5 confirmed at Phoneix Park yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 30-03-2021 8:51pm

I see numerous 17 hourly reports today, any news?

appledrop · 30-03-2021 10:27pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I see numerous 17 hourly reports today, any news?

Joanna said on 9pm weather forecast that it reached 17.8 at Mt Dillion today.

On Met Eireann twitter it reported that 17.6 was max today at Mt. Dillion.

Either way today is our new max we will just have to wait until the morning for confirmed max!

appledrop · 31-03-2021 8:50am

New Max confirmed 17.6 Mt Dillion on 30th.

John mac · 31-03-2021 8:57pm

must to have gotten to 7.8° here today :rolleyes:
(wet and misty west..)

appledrop · 31-03-2021 9:04pm

John mac wrote: »

must to have gotten to 7.8° here today :rolleyes:
(wet and misty west..)

Don't worry John Mac all change tomorrow according to Met Eireann 6pm weather forecast.

East will be the colder only around 11 degrees but Munster/ West could reach 18/ 19 degrees!

Watch this space.

M.T. Cranium · 31-03-2021 10:28pm

Will post some final values tomorrow mid-day but IMT will be 7.7 I think, it soared to 7.5 after yesterday, and most of the locations ran warm today as well. There are a few 17 hourly obs (Moorepark and Oak Park) so could see an incremental change in the MAX also.

M.T. Cranium · 01-04-2021 2:51pm

IMT finished on 7.6 and PRC is 87% of normal (above in the north slightly, also at Shannon, considerably below in the southeast). Will figure out SUN later and post some provisional scoring as I would imagine the MS could be delayed until after the weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 02-04-2021 8:47am

Will be posting some provisional scoring in about an hour or two, just thinking that the MS unlikely to appear today and even Monday might be a further delay if that's considered a holiday, which would mean waiting to the 6th to confirm values mostly already known.

The sunshine total for the six locations over 29th to 31st was 76.2 hours, a blend of rather cloudy skies on 29th in general and near west coast throughout, and full on sunshine at times in the east. That is an average of 4.2 hours per location, probably just above the normal amount by perhaps 10%, so blending that with the 87% calculated to 28th gives us 90% as an estimate for SUN. That's the variable that I most often revise from estimates. Otherwise then a perfect scorecard reads

7.6 __ 17.6 _ -3.5 _ 087 _ 090 ___ 14.9 JCas

(that would have been worth 102 points -- let's see how we did then ...)

M.T. Cranium · 02-04-2021 9:40am

Provisional scoring for March 2021

FORECASTER _______________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__BONUS__TOTALS

Artane2002 _________________ 22 _ 18 _ 20 _ 14 _ 05 __ 08 ______ 87

Gonzo _____________________ 21 _ 18 _ 16 _ 15 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 83

____ Con Sensus _____________19 _ 14 _ 20 _ 15 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 81

SleetAndSnow _______________16 _ 15 _ 17 _ 15 _ 08 __ 06 ______ 77

Appledrop __________________ 21 _ 13 _ 15 _ 14 _ 07 __ 05 ______ 75

MrSkinner __________________ 21 _ 11 _ 19 _ 13 _ 06 __ 05 ______ 75

Tae laidir ___________________ 23 _ 14 _ 13 _ 14 _ 06 __ 04 ______ 74

CirrusBusiness _______________20 _ 10 _ 12 _ 13 _ 10 __ 08 ______ 73

Bsal _______________________ 19 _ 14 _ 15 _ 14 _ 05 __ 06 ______ 73

WesternStorm _______________ 22 _ 14 _ 15 _ 11 _ 07 __ 04 ______ 73

Sunflower3 __________________15 _ 16 _ 13 _ 14 _ 09 __ 05 ______ 72

Pauldry _____________________21 _ 15 _ 10 _ 11 _ 07 __ 08 ______ 72

DOCARCH ___________________14 _ 13 _ 13 _ 15 _ 06 __ 09 ______ 70

Jpmarn _____________________21 _ 10 _ 16 _ 14 _ 06 __ 02 ______ 69

john mac ___________________ 16 _ 14 _ 15 _ 09 _ 08 __ 05 ______ 67

Dacogawa ___________________18 _ 18 _ 16 _ 00 _ 07 __ 08 ______ 67

Kindred Spirit ________________23 _ 14 _ 14 _ 11 _ 02 __ 03 ______ 67

Dasa29 _____________________19 _ 09 _ 15 _ 07 _ 06 __ 09 ______ 65

M.T. Cranium ________________ 20 _ 08 _ 10 _ 14 _ 06 __ 07 ______ 65

eon1208 ____________________ 07 _ 14 _ 16 _ 11 _ 07 __ 07 ______ 62

Funsterdelux _________________19 _ 01 _ 15 _ 11 _ 09 __ 07 ______ 62

____ NormaL ________________ 17 _ 11 _ 05 _ 11 _ 08 __ 06 ______ 58

Adam240610 _________________23 _ 07 _ 14 _ 02 _ 00 __ 08 ______ 54

sdanseo _____________________14 _ 16 _ 00 _ 13 _ 05 __ 04 ______ 52

200motels ___________________14 _ 05 _ 00 _ 15 _ 08 __ 05 ______ 47

sryanbruen __________________ 15 _ 06 _ 00 _ 14 _ 07 __ 05 ______ 47

Joe Public ___________________ 04 _ 13 _ 09 _ 09 _ 04 __ 06 ______ 45

Mr Stonewall _________________15 _ 00 _ 06 _ 12 _ 03 __ 04 ______ 40

BLIZZARD7 __________________16 _ 00 _ 00 _ 14 _ 02 __ 02 ______ 34

waterways ___________________08 _ 05 _ 03 _ 00 _ 07 __ 05 ______ 28

Danno ______________________11 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 00 __ 02 ______ 25

A rather high scoring month with our group consensus doing better than normal by a bigger margin than is often the case. No need for minimum progression and no late penalties. The annual update will be along next. Although subject to review, fairly sure these scores will hold up within 1-2, so congrats to Artane2002 and Gonzo for exceeding the high score of Con Sensus. Good work by Sleet and Snow and the rest of the 70+ group.

____________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER _______________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max 17th loc'n

Pauldry ____________________ 8.0 _ 17.1 _ -2.5 _ 100 _ 105 __17_ 14.0 Phoenix Park

Adam240610 ________________7.8 _ 18.9 _ -2.9 _ 047 _ 141 ___5_ 16.1 Phoenix Park

Kindred Spirit _______________ 7.8 _ 17.0 _ -2.9 _ 100 _ 130 __26_ 12.0 Oak Park

Tae laidir ___________________7.4 _ 17.0 _ -2.8 _ 083 _ 110 __27_ 11.8 Roches Point

Artane2002 _________________7.3 _ 17.4 _ -3.5 _ 085 _ 115 __18_ 13.7 Phoenix Park

WesternStorm _______________7.3 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 075 _ 104 ___3_ 16.8 Dublin A

Jpmarn ____________________ 7.2 _ 18.6 _ -3.9 _ 085 _ 110 __28_ 11.5 Oak Park

Gonzo _____________________ 7.2 _ 17.8 _ -3.9 _ 088 _ 112 __13t 14.2 Oak Park

Appledrop __________________ 7.2 _ 16.9 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 105 __24t 12.1 Phoenix Park

MrSkinner __________________ 7.2 _ 16.7 _ -3.6 _ 092 _ 112 __24t 12.1 Phoenix Park

M.T. Cranium ________________7.1 _ 18.8 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 __11_ 14.5 Moore Park

CirrusBusiness _______________7.1 _ 16.6 _ -4.3 _ 080 _ 090 __10_ 14.7 Oak Park

Funsterdelux ________________ 7.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 098 _ 095 ___6_ 15.5 Shannon

Bsal _______________________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 115 __22_ 12.5 Phoenix Park

Dasa29 _____________________7.0 _ 16.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___8_ 15.0 Mullingar

____ Con Sensus _____________ 7.0 _ 17.0 _ -3.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 14.1 Oak Park, Phoenix Park*

Dacogawa ___________________ 6.9 _ 17.8 _ -3.1 _ 135 _ 105 ___9_ 14.8 Oak Park

____ NormaL ________________ 6.8 _ 18.5 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 __(19) 13.5 loc'n by climatology

BLIZZARD7 __________________ 6.7 _ 21.7 _ -6.8 _ 090 _ 130 ___1_ 21.0 Casement

SleetAndSnow ________________ 6.7 _ 17.1 _ -3.2 _ 087 _ 102 __15t 14.1 Oak Park

john mac ____________________ 6.7 _ 17.0 _ -4.0 _ 106 _ 099 ___4_ 16.2 Shannon

Sunflower3 ___________________6.6 _ 18.0 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 095 __15t 14.1 Newport

sryanbruen ___________________6.6 _ 16.0 _ -5.9 _ 090 _ 105 __20t 13.2 Shannon

Mr Stonewall _________________ 6.6 _ 14.8 _ -2.1 _ 077 _ 123 __23_ 12.4 Shannon

sdanseo _____________________ 6.5 _ 18.0 _ -6.0 _ 092 _ 115 ___2_ 17.3 Oak Park

DOCARCH ____________________6.5 _ 16.9 _ -2.8 _ 087 _ 112 ___7_ 15.1 Casement

200motels ___________________ 6.5 _ 16.1 _ -5.6 _ 088 _ 101 __19_ 13.4 Shannon

Danno ______________________ 6.2 _ 15.3 _ -6.4 _ 078 _ 145 __29__ 9.3 Oak Park

waterways ___________________ 5.9 _ 17.1 _ -5.2 _ 135 _ 103 __20t 13.2 Dublin A

eon1208 _____________________5.8 _ 17.0 _ -3.1 _ 099 _ 107 __13t 14.2 Oak Park

Joe Public ____________________5.5 _ 16.9 _ -4.6 _ 070 _ 120 __12_ 14.4 Belmullet

____________________________________________________

March 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

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