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31-07-2020, 22:45   #16
dasa29
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dasa29 ___ 15.0 ___ 26.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 125 ___ 100 ___ 25mm. 18th. Malin Head.
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31-07-2020, 23:07   #17
Jpmarn
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Jpmarn _______ 15.9_ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.5 Valentia 16th.
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01-08-2020, 00:27   #18
M.T. Cranium
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MTC _________ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 35.0 mm 28th Dunsany

Normal _______15.1 _ 27.0 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 mm (date random, loc'n by climat)
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01-08-2020, 00:35   #19
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Skinner_____15.3_____25.3_____4.3_____93_____93_____37mm Valentia 4th
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01-08-2020, 00:49   #20
adam240610
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Adam240610 16.1__26.8__4.0__80__144__29mm Valentia
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01-08-2020, 00:56   #21
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Appledrop 15.4____26.1__2.5_80%__90%__41mm Newport Furnace 27th
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01-08-2020, 01:15   #22
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john mac__________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 3.9 _ 95 _ 102 ___ 42mm Newport, 26th

Jugst
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01-08-2020, 10:17   #23
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I had the August thread open a couple of days ago and i said, I must enter that on time this time around....

Rikand ____ 15.0 ____ 25.0 ____ 1.5 ____ 90 ____ 120 _____ 50 mm Mount Dillon 24th

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01-08-2020, 20:10   #24
mickger844posts
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mickger844posts___________ 16.0 _ 25.4 _ 4.9 _ 84_ 95 ___ 36mm Johnstown Castle 26th
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01-08-2020, 22:35   #25
BLIZZARD7
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BLIZZARD7 _________ 16.3 _ 29.5_ 3.3 _ 80 _ 135 ___ 58.00 mm 18th Dunsany
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02-08-2020, 22:36   #26
M.T. Cranium
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12.4 mm Finner Camp on 1st. (will update daily, if anyone wants to assist, great but post ongoing 2nd and 3rd highest values as this will be the plan -- assuming this is at most a weak candidate for 3rd place).

Will have a table of forecasts up by tomorrow.
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03-08-2020, 08:08   #27
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15.9, 25.2, 3.4, 89%, 106%, 46mm - 29th Aug. - Valentia.
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03-08-2020, 20:08   #28
M.T. Cranium
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Table of forecasts for August, 2020


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max rain locn date


Mrstonewall _________16.7 _ 27.4 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 33.0 Shannon 4th

BLIZZARD7 ____ (-4) _16.3 _ 29.5 _ 3.3 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 58.0 Dunsany 18th

Joe Public___________16.3 _ 28.3 _ 3.3 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 43.0 Valentia 4th

Tae laidir ___________16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.7 _ 082 _ 109 ___ 23.0 Mace Head 5th

sryanbruen _________ 16.1 _ 28.4 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 32.0 Newport 25th

Adam240610 _______ 16.1 _ 26.8 _ 4.0 _ 080 _ 144 ___ 29.0 Valentia 27th

M.T. Cranium _______ 16.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 35.0 Dunsany 28th

Artane2002 _________16.0 _ 27.8 _ 3.3 _ 100 _ 113 ___ 35.0 Newport 21st

200motels__________ 16.0 _ 26.4 _ 3.9 _ 077 _ 106 ___ 20.0 Dublin Airport 22nd

mickger844posts_(-3)_16.0 _ 25.4 _ 4.9 _ 084 _ 095 ___ 36.0 Johnstown Castle 26th

Jpmarn ____________ 15.9 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 32.5 Valentia 16th

Eon1208 _____ (-8) __ 15.9 _ 25.2 _ 3.4 _ 089 _ 106 ___ 46.0 Valentia 29th

Dacogawa __________ 15.8 _ 29.2 _ 3.1 _ 159 _ 096 ___ 42.0 Roches Point 14th


Con Sensus _________ 15.8 _ 27.0 _ 3.3 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 35.0 (see info below)


waterways __________15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 116 _ 097 ___ 43.0 Athenry 15th

Bsal _______________15.6 _ 26.4 _ 3.1 _ 110 _ 093 ___ 22.0 Gurteen 13th

Sunflower3 _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 3.6 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 31.0 Newport 8th

WesternStorm _______15.5 _ 27.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 106 ___ 22.0 Malin Head 22nd

Pauldry ____________ 15.5 _ 26.1 _ 3.1 _ 170 _ 100 ___ 40.0 Newport 31st

Appledrop __________ 15.4 _ 26.1 _ 2.5 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 41.0 Newport 27th

MrSkinner __________ 15.3 _ 25.3 _ 4.3 _ 093 _ 093 ___ 37.0 Valentia 4th


Normal _____________15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 (loc'n by climat, date random)


Kindred Spirit ________15.0 _ 27.0 _ 3.5 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 30.0 Valentia 17th

DOCARCH___________ 15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.8 _ 115 _ 103 ___ 23.6 Valentia 15th

john mac ___________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 3.9 _ 095 _ 102 ___ 42.0 Newport 26th

dasa29 _____________15.0 _ 26.0 _ 3.0 __125 _100 ___ 25.0 Malin Head 18th

Rikand _____ (-2) ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 1.5 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 50.0 Mount Dillon 24th

_________________________________________________

For the maximum 24h rainfall, we had these locations predicted:

Valentia _________7

Newport _________6

Malin Head _______2

Dunsany ________ 2

Shannon ________ 1

Johnstown Castle _ 1

Roches' Point _____1

Athenry _________1

Mace Head _______1

Gurteen _________ 1

Dublin ___________1

Mountdillon _______1

Not selected: Cork, Moorepark, Sherkin Is, Oak Park, Casement, Phoenix Park, Mullingar, Claremorris, Knock, Belmullet, Markree, Finner, Ballyhaise.

Con Sensus gets 3 points if location is Newport or Valentia, 2 points if Malin Head or Dunsany, 1 point if any of the other locations chosen (by one forecaster) and zero if none of the chosen locations. Normal scores location points by climatology (top third of August precip averages score 3, middle third score 2, bottom third score 1).

The date selections are essentially random and scattered through the month with a bias towards the second half (probably in part due to fairly dry looking maps on model runs past few days in first half), the dates selected are

4, 4, 4, 5, 8, 13, 14, 15, 15, 16, 17, 18, 18, 21, 22, 22, 24, 25, 26, 26, 27, 27, 28, 29, 31 (12/25 selected last third)

but Con will score 3 for any actual date selected by more than one, 2 for any other date, and 1 for any date in the second half of the month if not selected.

Note -- cleared up two issues with forecasts and table is amended as per the information provided. Thanks.


Eon1208, your late penalty is still a bit short of what a regular entrant would get for 2d +5h but as I said last month, will be lenient since you are new to contest and won't be a factor in the final annual standings from starting out in July. Just FYI the late penalties are 1 point per six hours (or portion) for the first 36 hours then 1 point per hour thereafter. So in your case, that would normally be 17 points.

Looks like we have all 21 of the regular entrants plus four either part-time or new, welcome back in each case, and good luck everyone.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 04-08-2020 at 02:20.
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03-08-2020, 20:19   #29
adam240610
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Originally Posted by adam240610 View Post
Adam240610 16.1__26.8__4.0__80__144__29mm Valentia
Forgot to add a date, I'll go with 27th if that's okay, thanks for the PM
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03-08-2020, 22:38   #30
appledrop
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
12.4 mm Finner Camp on 1st. (will update daily, if anyone wants to assist, great but post ongoing 2nd and 3rd highest values as this will be the plan -- assuming this is at most a weak candidate for 3rd place).

Will have a table of forecasts up by tomorrow.

This remains highest rainfall. Very little rainfall at any station on 2nd August with max of only 6.8mm at Ballyhaise.
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