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22-07-2020, 15:25   #16
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo has developed. One to watch, though it is a distance from anywhere right now. noaa
Something to be aware of is the complication that the pandemic could have if there are evacuations needed with social distancing making the sheltering of people more difficult. The fear of the pandemic and the fear of an incoming storm could come into conflict. Planning and messaging important.

Quote:
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
850 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GONZALO...

Satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Gonzalo with 45 mph
(75 km/h) winds. The intensity forecast will be updated in the
regular advisory at 11 AM AST...1500 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 850 AM AST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 43.1W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


There's also a potential system in the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical storm Douglas could also cross over parts of Hawaii in the coming days.
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22-07-2020, 18:59   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by star gazer View Post
Tropical storm Douglas could also cross over parts of Hawaii in the coming days.
Looks likely to have lost its mojo on approach



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23-07-2020, 12:21   #18
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Duoglas has gone to a Major Hurricane and is forecast to become more of a threat to parts of Hawaii though still expected to lose much of its current strength by then.
TS Gonzalos looks like becoming a Hurricane shortly with a Hurricane watch in Barbados.
Tropical depression eight forecast to become a tropical storm and move over Texas at the lower level of storms but with heavy rains.
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23-07-2020, 23:18   #19
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Thought this was interesting enough with this guy comparing the current season to that of 2005, but my God, do these American news people always have to shout at their audience? My advice is to watch with the volume low as his nasally accent/voice is particularly grating.

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25-07-2020, 14:32   #20
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Hurricane Hanna developed out of the Gulf of Mexico depression moving towards the Texas coast bringing with it a lot of rain: 150mm - 300mm totals in South Texas into Mexico with isolated maximum totals of 450mm. The first Hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Season.

TS Gonzalo weakened and is forecast to dissipate in the next two days.

Hurricane Douglas is on track to be at or near Hurricane strength as it reaches the Hawaiin islands. It's a Category two hurricane and expected to gradually weaken.
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25-07-2020, 14:46   #21
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I had a feeling this year would get off to a very active start and I wish I'd done a proper post about it back in May Last year had a weak Modoki form of El Nino wherein the Easternmost regions of the Pacific didn't warm up the way the Central Pacific did. This was similar to 2004, although a lot weaker. Much of the early hyperactivity of 2005 was attributed to a long period of convergence over the Central Pacific, which if you look back at SST charts was most likely caused by the Modoki pattern decaying and leaving the Nino regions cooling down much earlier in the season than it usually would if a La Nina pattern was going to develop.

The same happened this year to an extent, and the atmosphere responded with a La Nina-esque pattern of subsidence over the Pacific much earlier in the season than usual, which allowed wind shear to drop dramatically in the Caribbean and MDR. In fact, the only thing which prevented the kind of disastrous major hurricanes seen in July 2005 was a very southerly displacement of the African jet and ITCZ, which pushed tropical waves southwest into South America rather than allowing them to traverse the MDR and Caribbean. Had this not happened, even with the large Saharan dust plumes which dominated the Atlantic in early July, the SST and shear pattern across the tropical Atlantic would have provided rocket fuel for any tropical waves traversing the area.

Shear map from just a few weeks ago. Even in mid-September during the peak of hurricane season, it's exceptionally rare to see such low shear right across Caribbean like this. In July it's almost unheard of. As you can see, though, the tropical waves visible in the background are too far south to get any spin and avoid land interaction with South America.

I would therefore posit that the southerly displacement of tropical waves for the first fortnight of July was the only thing preventing a couple of extremely dangerous hurricanes from forming in the Caribbean.

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25-07-2020, 21:14   #22
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Gonzalo has weakened to a remnant depression now instead of the hurricane it looked like being in previous forecasts. Lots of that SAL killed it.

Meanwhile Hurricane Hanna is making landfall along the south Texas coast.

Hurricane Hanna Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL082020 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 ...
WESTERN EYEWALL OF HANNA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF TEXAS...

A TCOON observing station at Laguna Madre, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 104 mph (167 km/h).

NOAA buoy 42020 recently measured a gust to 87 mph (141 km/h) at a height of 12 ft (3.7 m) in the eastern eyewall of Hanna.

The most recent observations from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure inside the eye of Hanna is 973 mb (28.73 inches).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...

INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.8N 97.0W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
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29-07-2020, 11:36   #23
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While not currently forecast to get to Hurricane strength, potential tropical cyclone nine (expected TS Isaias) is on track to impact a number of countries and potentially end up in Florida.

Last edited by star gazer; 29-07-2020 at 16:01. Reason: insert <potential> tropical cyclone
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29-07-2020, 14:27   #24
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This thing is far from a tropical cyclone, though they have been issuing discussions on it as if it is. It's just an elongated trough without a closed circulation and max winds far off to its northwest. It seems everyone is chomping at the bit to get the ninth named system of the season but until it develops further the headlines will have to wait.

2020 has been record as far as the number of Atlantic named systems thus far goes, but these systems have all been tame affairs (even Hanna), and the season is below average with regard to hurricane days and major hurricanes.

In fact, the whole northern hemisphere is way below average so far. The northwest Pacific has remained pretty much dormant. Overall, the NH is running at about half the average activity.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
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29-07-2020, 18:35   #25
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Surely going over Dominican Republic/Haiti with its high terrain as a storm would do some severe damage to its strength
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29-07-2020, 19:25   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dfx- View Post
Surely going over Dominican Republic/Haiti with its high terrain as a storm would do some severe damage to its strength
Yes, and the NHC have refered to that in their latest discussion, slightly downgrading intensity at 48-72 hours. They have its max intensity at 50 knots in a couple of days.
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30-07-2020, 10:07   #27
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Tropical Storm Isaias has formed over night. It has some unpredictability with its large windfield to the North and how it might interact with the land in its path but heavy rains expected in several countries.
Quote:
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

Isaias is sending some mixed signals tonight. The 1-min rapid
scan data from GOES-16 indicates that the low-level center is likely
displaced west of a very intense burst of deep convection on the
northeastern side of the circulation. However, the satellite data
also shows increased banding features overnight and a more
organized central cloud pattern, with recent hints that perhaps a
low-level center is trying to re-form closer to the convection.
Radar observations from San Juan show 60-65 kt Doppler wind
velocities during the past few hours near 5000 ft, so the initial
wind speed is raised to 50 kt.

Model forecasts are showing a complex evolution of the tropical
cyclone during the next day or two. There is good agreement that
Isaias will move across Hispaniola later today, and its low-level
center will likely become disorganized over the high terrain.
However, the strong burst of convection currently near Puerto Rico
is associated with a mid-level circulation, which should pass
along the north coast of Hispaniola later today. Most of the model
guidance suggest that this feature will cause the re-development of
a surface center over the northern part of the broader system while
the mid-level circulation moves close to the southeastern Bahamas.
Afterward, the cyclone would then move northwestward until the
weekend, and gradually turn northward and northeastward close to the
U.S. East Coast into early next week ahead of a mid-latitude trough.
The official track forecast is a little to the east of the previous
one and close to the NOAA corrected dynamical model consensus. It
should be noted that further adjustments to the forecast tracks are
indeed possible, especially after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola.

The intensity forecast is quite tricky. In the short term, Isaias
is expected to move across Hispaniola, as the storm's interaction
with the mountainous island should cause some weakening and
disruption to the circulation. However, as mentioned before, the
models suggest that a new center could form, and the
environmental conditions would support gradual intensification.
The intensity models have been trending higher, and the official
forecast is nudged upward accordingly, now showing a peak
intensity of 60 kt when the storm is near the coast of Florida and
the Southeast U.S. Coast. It should be noted that there are models
that show hurricane strength near the U.S. but, given the large
amount of uncertainty, it is preferred to stay on the
conservative side for now. We should have a better idea of how
strong Isaias will become near the U.S. after reconnaissance
aircraft sample the storm and after it passes Hispaniola later
today.


Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this morning and will
spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and
the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas later today and Friday.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus
on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards
will extend far from the center of the system.

3. While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to
portions of Cuba and Florida later this week and this weekend, it
is too soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and
updates to the forecast over the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 18.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0600Z 20.6N 72.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 25.5N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 27.3N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 31.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 37.0N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
NHC Dixcussion 8
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31-07-2020, 11:02   #28
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Hurricane Isaias is due to strengthen further in the next day or so. A hurricane warning for the Bahamas is in place as it begins impacting its South Eastern islands. Current forecast track puts Isaias keeping just East of Florida without making landfall and going up the US East coast where landfall is a possiblity.
Quote:
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
NHC

Isaias: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...=AL092020#tab2
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31-07-2020, 15:05   #29
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Well if the latest NOAA track is in anyway accurate, this will be a win for the GFS over the ECM, which must be a first.

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31-07-2020, 17:44   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oneiric 3 View Post
Well if the latest NOAA track is in anyway accurate, this will be a win for the GFS over the ECM, which must be a first.
Not quite...

From the latest Discussion.

Quote:
The 06Z UKMET and and GFS have shifted westward, closer to the Florida coast, which is similar to the westward shift seen in the 00Z ECMWF model fields.
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