Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

Harry Palmr · 26-05-2020 2:41pm

This year could be the year of Winter Vortex/Jet Stream and Slack HP and very little else

Donegal Postman said in April

Speaking about the months ahead, the Donegal postman, who is well known for forecasting the weather by observing nature, said: "We will have a lovely summer.

"There will be some thunder and showers on and off, but overall it will be lovely."

Not that I put much store in these sooth sayers and weather gurus of course.

Neddyusa · 26-05-2020 2:48pm

How is this spring looking for rainfall in terms of long term averages?

Must be close to record in some places.

Harry Palmr · 26-05-2020 4:42pm

Met.ie has so little historical data on its site. But this May is going to be the driest on the years they do show. Also a fraction cooler than average interestingly - that'll be the clear skies at night.

sryanbruen · 26-05-2020 4:49pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Met.ie has so little historical data on its site. But this May is going to be the driest on the years they do show. Also a fraction cooler than average interestingly - that'll be the clear skies at night.

I did up this table of the driest May I could find for the stations last year.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Rainfall totals for May 2019 and % of their May LTA rainfall up to the 20th at all synoptic stations. I have given their May 2018 totals and driest May record totals (if available) to compare also.

If this dry May continues to the end of the month, it will definitely be among the driest Mays on record I would think for Ireland - following one of the wettest Marches on record.

Harry Palmr · 27-05-2020 10:26am

So then it's the lack of chem trails in the jet stream isn't it?

highdef · 27-05-2020 10:57am

Harry Palmr wrote: »

So then it's the lack of chem contrails in the jet stream isn't it?

The lack of contrails may well have a bearing on the temperatures at this time of year. There can be quite a lot of contrails during the summer during high pressure and it can block out a lot of radiation from reaching the earth's surface. However there is the counter argument that contrails keep the heat in by way of creating a lid/blanket in the atmosphere, I would imagine there are scientific studies ongoing regarding this.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-plane-free-skies-spur-research-warming-impact-aviation/

blast06 · 27-05-2020 10:38pm

Danzy wrote: »

An inch of rain equates to about 80k litrees per acre, land is short about 2 inches now.

That is a lot of water

The volume of water in 2 inches of rain across the entire country would equate to 5 hours 36 minutes of the average discharge rate of the Amazon.
But would actually equate to ~236 days of the average discharge rate of the Shannon :eek:

compsys · 27-05-2020 11:14pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Met.ie has so little historical data on its site. But this May is going to be the driest on the years they do show. Also a fraction cooler than average interestingly - that'll be the clear skies at night.

You're forgetting we had that mini Arctic plunge in the middle of the month. Mullingar, Mount Dillon and Dublin Airport all got down to close to -3 one night while day time temps struggled to get much above 10 degrees for 3 days.

I think all temps for all stations will come in above average by the end of the month though.

Donegal Storm · 27-05-2020 11:58pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

So then it's the lack of chem trails in the jet stream isn't it?

It really is quite bizarre how perfectly this spell has coincided with the lockdown. Leo gave his address to the nation on Paddys day and from the very next day the rain just stopped and we've had blue skies and sunshine ever since

SouthWesterly · 28-05-2020 3:24pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

It really is quite bizarre how perfectly this spell has coincided with the lockdown. Leo gave his address to the nation on Paddys day and from the very next day the rain just stopped and we've had blue skies and sunshine ever since

Ah, the Leo effect

bazermc · 30-05-2020 10:20am

Bit of rain on the forecast for Dublin for mid week. Hopefully be more than just a piddly shower like last weekend.

Pa ElGrande · 30-05-2020 5:12pm

Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: May –July 2020 Issue date: 23.04.20

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase and is likely to remain so throughout this forecast period. It is therefore not expected to have a significant effect on UK weather. Sea surface temperatures are below average across the North Atlantic Ocean west of the UK. This pattern has been linked to greater incidence of high pressure in summer, implying increased chances of higher-than-normal temperatures in the Outlook period. For May and May-June-July as a whole, the Met Office long-range prediction system shows an increase in the likelihood of high pressure near the UK. While confidence is typically lower at this time of year than in winter, there is better agreement between prediction systems from centres around the world than is usual at this time of year.

source

Gonzo · 30-05-2020 5:31pm

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: May –July 2020 Issue date: 23.04.20

interesting that the metoffice is going for a summer influenced by High Pressure, this is pretty much what many of the long term models are hinting at. Could we be in for the first settled and warm August since 2003? time will tell. Long term models also hinting at a dry and warm Autumn but those will likely change over time.

Danzy · 30-05-2020 10:04pm

It's looking rough alright.

Driest April and May in Dublin in 180 years.

Neddyusa · 30-05-2020 10:48pm

Danzy wrote: »

It's looking rough alright.

Driest April and May in Dublin in 180 years.

I think SRyan linked to this Maynooth University report in the general thread but it's probably more relevant here.

https://twitter.com/cmurphy2904/status/1266721060633882624?s=19

RobertKK · 31-05-2020 12:07am

This could become a big crisis in itself.

Supercell · 31-05-2020 8:25am

Thats an incredible report, thanks for sharing Neddyusa.
Amazing to think this drought is breaking all time records and still there isnt any sign of an end to it. I'm surprised that there isnt a watering ban already in place. The water levels in Varty, Bohernabreena and Poulaphouca must be getting pretty low by now surely.

silverharp · 31-05-2020 9:52am

In countries like Portugal they store water so they never have shortages. Ireland is like a truck with the petrol tank of a Mini

Pa ElGrande · 31-05-2020 10:35am

Looks like we will have to import water from Russia soon.

Will a two-century record of precipitation in Moscow be broken?

A question that puts weather forecasters in a much more uncomfortable position than the question "Why do not forecasts come true?" Today, some prognostic centers have suggested that this May in Moscow may become - quote - "The wettest in the last almost 200 years." If on Sunday more than 40 mm of precipitation falls, then the total amount of May rainfall will exceed 140 mm. Such a record was set by nature 199 years ago, in 1821. At the moment, in May, 103 mm had already fallen.

source

Oneiric 3 · 31-05-2020 10:49am

Given that there is unlikely to be more rain recorded for remainder of this spring, this is how (provisionally) the data from the Met Éireann reporting stations will finish: (ordered by lowest to highest percentage total)

C/O Met Eireann
Data is from the 'Daily Data' page and are compared to the means as per their 'Monthly Data' page.

It is clear that the Dublin region bore the brunt of the dry conditions for the season, but I find it curious, once again, that Mace Hd on the west coast has come in in the top 4 of lowest percentage, compared to average, totals, while Athenry is in the top two highest.

But broadly speaking, and in terms of actual totals, the west and particularly the south enjoyed the greater totals in the Spring of 2020.

Danzy · 31-05-2020 11:02am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Given that there is unlikely to be more rain recorded for remainder of this spring, this is how (provisionally) the data from the Met Éireann reporting stations will finish: (ordered by lowest to highest percentage total)

C/O Met Eireann
Data is from the 'Daily Data' page and are compared to the means as per their 'Monthly Data' page.

It is clear that the Dublin region bore the brunt of the dry conditions for the season, but I find it curious, once again, that Mace Hd on the west coast has come in in the top 4 of lowest percentage, compared to average, totals, while Athenry is in the top two highest.

But broadly speaking, and in terms of actual totals, the west and particularly the south enjoyed the greater totals in the Spring of 2020.

And much of that total in Munster was in one night.

BrianD3 · 31-05-2020 11:34am

Probably asked already but does ME publish historical figures for Soil Moisture Deficit. If it is on the website I can't find it even after quite a lot of looking.

Latest SMD figures as per the link posted earlier are for the 29th May and I'd say there will have been a considerable increase given yesterday's conditions.

Glorious weather and very good for those of us who don't like cutting lawns but I'm surprised that there hasn't been more doom and gloom about farming, forest fires, potential water shortages etc.

I have been putting out water for the birds and they are making good use of it e.g. two collared doves splashing around in a shallow tray of water for over an hour today.

SleetAndSnow · 31-05-2020 12:28pm

Genuine question and one I just always wondered, there's a stream by my house which runs through a lot of different areas and just flows out to sea never stops. Doesn't look like much but would definitely add up if stored. Is there a reason we can't just store this water and process it and put it into the system from the countless streams across the country? Too much contamination or something? Thanks

silverharp · 31-05-2020 12:58pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Genuine question and one I just always wondered, there's a stream by my house which runs through a lot of different areas and just flows out to sea never stops. Doesn't look like much but would definitely add up if stored. Is there a reason we can't just store this water and process it and put it into the system from the countless streams across the country? Too much contamination or something? Thanks

good question, the Dodder for example comes out near the Ringsend water treatment plant, it doesn't seem like the biggest project in the world to syphon it off

Gaoth Laidir · 31-05-2020 1:02pm

It's an interesting report by Maynooth but shows the common problem of choosing an arbitrary time period based purely on calendar months. Weather doesn't work that way.

If the guys were to take the year so far as a whole, or the hydrological cycle (from 1st October) we would see that the situation is not as dire as they make out. Claiming records depends on which exact period you happen to choose. We can get equally impressive dry spells that last from say the second half of one season through the first half of the next, but if both of those seasons are book-ended by wetter conditions the dry spell doesn't make the records.books as.both seasons will turn out around average.

Nearby Casement is bang on average accumulation for 2020 and above average for the hydrological year so far (Dublin Airport and Dunsany are on average).

So while it is a remarkably dry period the whole country is experiencing, I dare say we've seen similar periods before only they didn't exactly match up with a convenient calendar period. Trends all depends on how near or far you want to zoom in or out. Given the very wet winter we've had it's inconceivable that just 3 months later our water system again seems well capable of squandering the excess. This is what should be prioritised as our population grows, not some pointless green GHG tax initiatives.

MJohnston · 31-05-2020 1:25pm

I think rather than getting bogged down in arguing about calendars, the best measure might be to balance the weather statistics with the actual practicalities of water storage, as well as the realities of water utilisation.

A long period of dry weather matters more or less depending on how our water system is able to cope.

It’s a real shame that there do not appear to be open data sources regarding reservoir levels, at the least. I’d be curious as to whether Irish Water also would have water utilisation figures available to publish.

pauldry · 31-05-2020 2:17pm

Next week it will start raining again midweek so we might be saved.

Larbre34 · 31-05-2020 3:52pm

The medium term forecast of average rainfall is very welcome and hopefully accurate. The farmland in my area on the Dublin / Meath / Kildare border is starting to parch.

Gonzo · 31-05-2020 4:02pm

next weeks cold plunge has definitely been beefed up and it could actually turn quite unsettled as well as cool. It doesn't look like we'll see any bands of rain, but there will definitely be showers, particularly along northern and eastern areas between Wednesday and next weekend. After next weekend it remains to be seen will we hold onto this northerly for the majority of June or will we go back to high pressure. Absolutely no signs of the Atlantic breaking through any time soon.

bazermc · 31-05-2020 7:38pm

I was done by Grand Canal Dock at the weekend to see what if was like with the new Capital Dock building and new green area.

They (don’t know who) has a hose hooked up to water the grass outside the Fresh and the playground.

They were taking water from the hydrant thingy. Which was overflowing at the source and completely flooding the footpath area

Clever stuff in a drought.

Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

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