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View Poll Results: What impact will the sun's deep minima have on the future climate?
Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles 284 43.23%
No impact 143 21.77%
Global warming is here to stay 124 18.87%
Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 106 16.13%
Voters: 657. You may not vote on this poll

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16-09-2020, 13:44   #901
firemansam4
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We are officially into Solar Cycle 25 according to NOAA..

https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle

They state that solar minimum occurred in December 2019 and we are heading towards a solar maximum in 2025.

They predict solar cycle 25 to be small but similar to solar cycle 24. They are not expecting there to be any Maunder type minimum approaching after that.

But then again these solar predictions are very hard to make so anything is still possible in that respect, and we will probably know a lot more when this cycle progresses to see how right they are.
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17-09-2020, 14:11   #902
SeaBreezes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firemansam4 View Post
We are officially into Solar Cycle 25 according to NOAA..

https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle

They state that solar minimum occurred in December 2019 and we are heading towards a solar maximum in 2025.

They predict solar cycle 25 to be small but similar to solar cycle 24. They are not expecting there to be any Maunder type minimum approaching after that.

But then again these solar predictions are very hard to make so anything is still possible in that respect, and we will probably know a lot more when this cycle progresses to see how right they are.
They got the last cycle prediction completely wrong.

Im sticking with zharakova. She hasnt been wrong with solar cycle prediction yet.

But NASA agree with her (now) that this cycle will be similar to the last. Its the solar cycle after that, where Zharkova says the cycle will bottom out.

Time will tell I guess.

Edit: her latest editorial..
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243

Last edited by SeaBreezes; 18-09-2020 at 09:22.
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17-09-2020, 14:24   #903
silverharp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaBreezes View Post
They got the last cycle prediction completely wrong.

Im sticking with zharakova. She hasnt been wrong with solar cycle prediction yet.

But NASA agree with her (now) that this cycle will be similar to the last. Its the solar cycle after that, where Zharkova says the cycle will bottom out.

Time will tell I guess.
does that mean if were to "notice anything" definitive it would be the far side of 2030?
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17-09-2020, 23:56   #904
firemansam4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaBreezes View Post
They got the last cycle prediction completely wrong.

Im sticking with zharakova. She hasnt been wrong with solar cycle prediction yet.

But NASA agree with her (now) that this cycle will be similar to the last. Its the solar cycle after that, where Zharkova says the cycle will bottom out.

Time will tell I guess.
I didn't think they were that far out. In 2009 they predicted the cycle peak to be in May 2013with a maximum sunspot number of 90.
The peak actually happened in April 2014 with maximum sunspots of 114.

I guess we will know more about this cycle when we get close to maximum, but we may not find out if another Maunder type minimum is likely for maybe another 10 or 11 years.

NOAA actually predict that solar cycles will start going up in intensity again after this one so it will be very interesting to see how it pans out, we are just going to have to wait many years for it.
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18-09-2020, 09:28   #905
SeaBreezes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firemansam4 View Post
I didn't think they were that far out. In 2009 they predicted the cycle peak to be in May 2013with a maximum sunspot number of 90.
The peak actually happened in April 2014 with maximum sunspots of 114.

I guess we will know more about this cycle when we get close to maximum, but we may not find out if another Maunder type minimum is likely for maybe another 10 or 11 years.

NOAA actually predict that solar cycles will start going up in intensity again after this one so it will be very interesting to see how it pans out, we are just going to have to wait many years for it.
yeah. She predicted this last solar cycle at 1/2 strength in 2000 and was laughed at. Her reply, we just have to wait and see. Shes been bang on so far, but under fierve attack as she is predicting temp drop.

Silverharp, yes in her latest editorial she says:

This, in turn, can lead to a drop of the terrestrial temperature by up to 1.0°C from the current temperature during the next three cycles (25–27) of grand minimum 1. The largest temperature drops will be approaching during the local minima between cycles 25 − 26 and cycles 26–27 when the lowest solar activity level is achieved using the estimations in Figure 2 (bottom plot) and Figure 3. Therefore, the average temperature in the Northern hemisphere can be reduced by up to 1.0°C from the current temperature, which was increased by 1.4°C since Maunder minimum. This will result in the average temperature to become lower than the current one to be only 0.4°C higher than the temperature measured in 1710. Then, after the modern grand solar minimum 1 is over, the solar activity in cycle 28 will be restored to normal in the rather short but powerful grand solar cycle lasting between 2053 and 2370

....so who knows? But my moneys on her. Shes been ahead of the game all along, and only one of 2 world wide who correctly predicted the last 1/2 strength solar cycle.
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18-09-2020, 13:14   #906
lapua20grain
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaBreezes View Post
They got the last cycle prediction completely wrong.

Im sticking with zharakova. She hasnt been wrong with solar cycle prediction yet.

But NASA agree with her (now) that this cycle will be similar to the last. Its the solar cycle after that, where Zharkova says the cycle will bottom out.

Time will tell I guess.

Edit: her latest editorial..
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full...0.2020.1796243

That was a really good read cheers for sharing
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21-09-2020, 12:31   #907
BLIZZARD7
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The sun is very quiet at the moment - 31 days blank in a row today, Solar Flux is 70

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 31 days
2020 total: 187 days (71%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
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21-09-2020, 12:54   #908
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Two contradictory headlines on spaceweather.com

Quote:
A MONTH WITHOUT SUNSPOTS: The sun has been without sunspots for 31 straight days--a full month. This interval has pushed the current Solar Minimum into historic territory. Since 2016, there have been 825 spotless days. To find a lull in the solar cycle with more spotless days, you have to go back to the years around 1913 when the sun racked up 1023 spotless days. We are now experiencing a century-class Solar Minimum.Aurora alerts: SMS text.

SOLAR CYCLE 25 STRIKES BACK: The face of the sun is blank now, but it won't be blank for long. A new sunspot group is about to rotate over the eastern edge of the sun. Its magnetic canopy is visible in this image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:
So maybe tomorrow there will be a new sunspot coming around.
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21-09-2020, 14:05   #909
Mad_Lad
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Lets just hope we don't get a super flare, have those anti static bags ready for your phone and shortwave radio. Though if one that big comes the phone network will most likely be useless. Always good to have a shortwave radio protected.

We missed a big one was it last year ? luckily the sun spat out the super big flare away from Earth.
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21-09-2020, 14:19   #910
John.Icy
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I get that some of these sites and stuff want clicks but I've found some of the dramatics over cycle 25 thus far a bit funny.

So much 'WOW SOLAR CYCLE 25 ROARING IN TO ACTION' every time a single spot pops up, even if it's the most pathetic little thing that dissipates in a day.
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21-09-2020, 15:26   #911
Lucreto
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On the 19th September last year there was 185 spotless days. This year its 187 days.

The new cycle is not first out the gate anyway.
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