Mediterranean strong depressions

highdef · 06-10-2018 8:14am

Rikand wrote: »

Is there another one out there off the coast of italy - the european weather forecast on rte had a brief mention of something something

Yes there is. Reports of flash flooding in many parts of Italy, particularly the south and in the islands. When that clears, it looks like another will move into the Western Med. A lot of resorts will be having very nasty weather in the coming week.

hatrickpatrick · 23-06-2019 5:02am

The SST anomalies in the Mediterranean are incredible at the moment, particularly the whopper of an Ionian Sea anomaly. If other conditions align, these SSTs could contribute to some seriously intense "medicanes" this summer and autumn. Definitely an area to keep an eye on.

dsmythy · 23-10-2019 11:08pm

Ingredients for development in the far eastern Med this Friday.

One to watch, though no extreme effects currently in the forecast. Thunderstorms had been developing with an upper low present in recent days and an attempt to organise around a circulation. Israel and Egypt on watch.

dsmythy · 24-10-2019 5:52pm

The centre of the circulation is near stationary. Models want to move it SE where Sinai could be a landfall point but models predictably are struggling with it. Some scenarios include it dipping into the Sinai peninsula before returning back north over the sea to affect southern Israel and Gaza. With infrastructure deficits in some of these regions heavy rains could prove to be hard hitting. But first will it appear at all.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1187402117117546496?s=09

dsmythy · 25-10-2019 4:58pm

The Mediterranean this afternoon.

The cyclone is approaching the Egyptian coast. Wind gusts up to 50mph but the main story will be the rain with 4 inches expected to fall in its path. It may interact with desert environments too.

https://twitter.com/AarneGranlund/status/1187752774961979395?s=09

dsmythy · 25-10-2019 11:46pm

The storm has defied the models somewhat. It is currently further north than expected and may make landfall on the central Israeli coast. It's probably at the height of its power. Winds 35-40mph gusting to 50. Expected to weaken as it moves east. Some areas of Israel could record up to 8 inches of rain.

https://twitter.com/Medicane_Centre/status/1187853243872886784?s=09

dsmythy · 26-10-2019 9:49pm

The storm ultimately made landfall in Sinai. It has since become a remnant low moving eastwards though heavy thunderstorms continue.

https://twitter.com/warning_center/status/1187903346818064386?s=09

tartetatin · 26-10-2019 10:05pm

Hi Dsmythy,
Thanks so much for your updates. I'm a weather fan, but no expert & appreciate the posts by such experts as yourself. The idea of an Israeli coast bothers me a bit however. Geographically-speaking (and this is probably how you are referring to the location) I can see on the map the area that you identify. Politically speaking however, this coastline, and the area to the east of it is a disputed territory. Don't wish to start a political polemic here as we're discussing the weather really, but I merely wanted to draw attention to some ahem, turbulence in the region.

highdef · 27-10-2019 2:54pm

tartetatin wrote: »

Hi Dsmythy,
Thanks so much for your updates. I'm a weather fan, but no expert & appreciate the posts by such experts as yourself. The idea of an Israeli coast bothers me a bit however. Geographically-speaking (and this is probably how you are referring to the location) I can see on the map the area that you identify. Politically speaking however, this coastline, and the area to the east of it is a disputed territory. Don't wish to start a political polemic here as we're discussing the weather really, but I merely wanted to draw attention to some ahem, turbulence in the region.

Being a weather forum with people of factual and scientific minds, the vast majority would consider any borders in a literal sense as in geographical rather than political *. Deciding on a border from a political point of view brings in an element of personal preference/opinion and therefore can lead to confusion.
I could just as easily say that Barcelona is not in Spain. Many people say that this is the case however the actual fact is that Barcelona IS in Spain.

In short, geography is pretty much definite fact and is difficult to get confused by. Politics is open to debate and personal points of view and therefore had no place in this forum.

* Of course, borders are pretty much political but I'm sure you all got my point.

dsmythy · 27-10-2019 3:15pm

Image from NASA on Friday

tartetatin · 28-10-2019 12:58am

highdef wrote: »

Being a weather forum with people of factual and scientific minds, the vast majority would consider any borders in a literal sense as in geographical rather than political *. Deciding on a border from a political point of view brings in an element of personal preference/opinion and therefore can lead to confusion.
I could just as easily say that Barcelona is not in Spain. Many people say that this is the case however the actual fact is that Barcelona IS in Spain.

In short, geography is pretty much definite fact and is difficult to get confused by. Politics is open to debate and personal points of view and therefore had no place in this forum.

* Of course, borders are pretty much political but I'm sure you all got my point.

Yes indeed highdef, you are so right. There is no place for personal opinion in science, and this is as it should be. Of course, scientific and geographical ‘facts’ are subject to change - take Pluto for example- some experts argue that it is not a planet. Some insist that it is still the ninth planet in our Solar System. What we call ‘scientific fact’ is in essence a theory which explains the data that we currently have.
You make an interesting point about Barcelona, but, for now, the Catalan people pay tax to Madrid.
Google maps (and indeed, a number of other maps) do not recognise the Palestinian state either. It is an interesting observation, because the majority of UN members recognise its ‘physical’ existence.
-as do the Palestinians!
It is very hard to discern tone and intention in an internet post. I am not a political crusader. I was referring to a cultural sensitivity.
The Irish don’t like Ireland to be considered a part of The British Isles (although this country is included as such in many maps).
In the same context, Palestine needs to be acknowledged when making reference to the Israeli coast because the Gaza Strip is there.

dsmythy · 12-11-2019 2:39pm

This short lived storm broke up on landfall in Algeria. 45 knot sustained winds achieved. Its remains are expected to be absorbed into a large area of developing low pressure expected to bring stormy seas throughout the central Med.

https://twitter.com/Medicane_Centre/status/1194219570988498946?s=19

https://twitter.com/LucaLombroso/status/1194179495139430400?s=09

dsmythy · 19-01-2020 9:25pm

Another one to watch tonight/tomorrow. Off the East Coast of Spain. As a result of a cut off upper low.

3.track_.current.png-nggid0513326-ngg0dyn-900x800x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.png

3.track_.current.png-nggid0513326-ngg0dyn-900x800x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.png

3.phase1_.zoom_.png-nggid0513325-ngg0dyn-900x800x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.png

Rikand · 16-09-2020 12:38pm

"Medicane"

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/medicane-cassilda-greece-mk/

Medicane still isn't an official term is it?

Developing between greece and Libya at the moment, could bring damaging wind gusts and rain to Greece later in the week.

She looks well daycent!

Thelonious Monk · 16-09-2020 3:46pm

Yep, my brother lives in Malta, they had more rain 2 days ago than they normally get in 2 months. Mad to think they get storms at this time of year.

hatrickpatrick · 17-09-2020 7:50pm

This is starting to look like it could be serious for Greece, especially when you combine the novelty and thus unpreparedness for storms like this, and the ongoing renewed COVID wave Greece is currently grappling with.

Given how often this has happened in the Mediterranean in recent years, I'm starting to wonder if this needs to be considered a regular annual thing for people to prepare for the way the Atlantic Hurricane Season is. I know one can't talk about climate change with only a few years as a reference point, but IIRC the last four years have all featured a medicane-type storm which is very much unprecedented, it's difficult not to consider that this may be something which is here to stay at least as long as the AMO remains in positive territory.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-09-2020 9:53pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

This is starting to look like it could be serious for Greece, especially when you combine the novelty and thus unpreparedness for storms like this, and the ongoing renewed COVID wave Greece is currently grappling with.

Given how often this has happened in the Mediterranean in recent years, I'm starting to wonder if this needs to be considered a regular annual thing for people to prepare for the way the Atlantic Hurricane Season is. I know one can't talk about climate change with only a few years as a reference point, but IIRC the last four years have all featured a medicane-type storm which is very much unprecedented, it's difficult not to consider that this may be something which is here to stay at least as long as the AMO remains in positive territory.

There was no increasing trend in occurrence over the 60-year period analysed by Cavicchia et al (2013). The 60s, 70s and 80s all saw storms in a number of consecutive years. With Twitter and now the EMMC formed it's become a lot more discussed topic, but it's always been there.

hatrickpatrick · 17-09-2020 11:28pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There was no increasing trend in occurrence over the 60-year period analysed by Cavicchia et al (2013). The 60s, 70s and 80s all saw storms in a number of consecutive years. With Twitter and now the EMMC formed it's become a lot more discussed topic, but it's always been there.

This is particularly interesting to me as these decades were all during negative AMO phases. I don't know if there's a shared correlation between North Atlantic SSTs and Mediterranean SSTs, but if there is, it's certainly interesting that these systems still formed with relative frequency during a period of suppressed North Atlantic SSTs.

Danno · 18-09-2020 12:06am

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

...Given how often this has happened in the Mediterranean in recent years, I'm starting to wonder if this needs to be considered a regular annual thing for people to prepare for the way the Atlantic Hurricane Season is...

The average is for 1.57 storms per year in the period 1948-2011. Is there any information or related data that shows this average has been substantially breached in the last 8 or 9 years?

hatrickpatrick · 18-09-2020 12:16am

Danno wrote: »

The average is for 1.57 storms per year in the period 1948-2011. Is there any information or related data that shows this average has been substantially breached in the last 8 or 9 years?

The problem is you'd need to break down the average by phase of the AMO, so you'd need, roughly speaking, the average for the periods 1897-1927 and 1965-1995 (the most recent cold phases) to compare with the average for the periods 1928-1964, and 1995-present. That's again assuming the AMO has an impact on Mediterranean temperatures, which is something I'm unsure of but will dig around a bit tomorrow to find out - I suspect there would definitely be a correlation between the two, as the AMO isn't just influenced by ocean currents but by long term atmospheric pressure setups as well, which would most likely be large-scale enough to have at least some influence in the Med.

sdanseo · 18-09-2020 12:25am

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

This is starting to look like it could be serious for Greece, especially when you combine the novelty and thus unpreparedness for storms like this, and the ongoing renewed COVID wave Greece is currently grappling with.

Given how often this has happened in the Mediterranean in recent years, I'm starting to wonder if this needs to be considered a regular annual thing for people to prepare for the way the Atlantic Hurricane Season is. I know one can't talk about climate change with only a few years as a reference point, but IIRC the last four years have all featured a medicane-type storm which is very much unprecedented, it's difficult not to consider that this may be something which is here to stay at least as long as the AMO remains in positive territory.

Looks like it's stalling over western Greece for a good 24-48hrs and dump a really serious amount of rain. Anything up to 370mm over 48h.

Danno · 18-09-2020 12:30am

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

The problem is you'd need to break down the average by phase of the AMO, so you'd need, roughly speaking, the average for the periods 1897-1927 and 1965-1995 (the most recent cold phases) to compare with the average for the periods 1928-1964, and 1995-present. That's again assuming the AMO has an impact on Mediterranean temperatures, which is something I'm unsure of but will dig around a bit tomorrow to find out - I suspect there would definitely be a correlation between the two, as the AMO isn't just influenced by ocean currents but by long term atmospheric pressure setups as well, which would most likely be large-scale enough to have at least some influence in the Med.

There may or may not be a link, but regardless - there are still on average 1.57 storms per year which should inform the average Mediterranean coastal resident that these are not rare, but rather occasional.
I posted the above in response to your ponderings if they should consider these a regular annual thing - which is a position they should by default hold.
Just like in Ireland we expect and usually get a few snow days almost every year, these storms to them are akin to snow days for us.

SleetAndSnow · 18-09-2020 4:30pm

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1306978129517436929?s=20

Gaoth Laidir · 19-09-2020 9:30pm

It made landfall yesterday morning on the island of Kefalhnia, with a gust to 111 kph. Rainfall totals of around 50 mm.

The UKMO got the central pressure very wrong in their 06Z analysis, marking it as only 1001 hPa when Kefalhnia airport was reporting 994 hPa.

METAR LGKF 180550Z 31036G50KT 1000 +TSRA SCT005 FEW011CB OVC012 21/20 Q0994=

dsmythy · 27-10-2021 1:22am

I guess it's that season again. The Mediterranean Sea is well above average temperature. Eastern Sicily has suffered catastrophic floods in the last 24 hours from a low pressure system in the region and more is threatening in the coming days.

Gaoth Laidir · 27-10-2021 11:24am

72-hour precipitation totals.

Previsioni Meteo Sicilia SIAS (regione.sicilia.it)

dsmythy · 31-10-2021 10:28am

How the disturbance looked on Thursday in the end.

Rikand · 14-09-2023 12:42pm

Another September "medicane" after devastating Libya with catastrophic rainfall that caused dams to burst and 6000 people dead so far.

https://www.space.com/medicane-daniel-libya-destruction-satellite-photos

Supercell · 15-09-2023 8:07am

You'd have to imagine with a warming world and a shallow mediterranean (easier to heat up) that there is going to be explosive deepening of storms there far more frequently than the recent past. Especially awful for poorer north african countries who are ill equipped to deal with them

InAtFullBack · 16-09-2023 11:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121111885#Comment_121111885

I really don't see how the first sentence you posted computes - explosiveness of storms is not caused by temperature per say, it's caused by the differences between temperatures of neighbouring airmasses. We are regularly informed that the arctic and antarctic regions are warming much faster than anywhere else on the planet. Therefore, colder airmasses are much less cold than before and warmer airmasses are slightly warmer.

For example, -31c upper airmasses owing to global warming are now -25c drifting south. Warmer airmasses +22c are now +24c drifting north thanks also to global warming. Instead of a differential of 53c, we now have a differential of 49c between the two and therefore less explosiveness.

There is correlation here in Ireland to back this assertation in the fact that we've been getting less severe wind events in the recent decades.

Mediterranean strong depressions

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