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March 2014 Boards forecast contest

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    #32
    omicron
    Registered Users Posts: 815 ✭✭✭omicron


    Bsal wrote: »
    14.5c at Shannon airport yesterday, please don't go any higher!

    14.7 in Phoenix Park yesterday.


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    #33
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    next week will be at least 16c Id say but cooler from paddys weekend on


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    #34
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After seven days ...

    IMT at 6.4 C

    PRC 144% of normal

    SUN 105% of normal


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    #35
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    min of -2.9c at casement and mullingar


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    #36
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Those must have been midnight readings, now we have -3.3 at Casement and Dublin for Wed 12th mins. No other stations went lower.


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    #37
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Those must have been midnight readings, now we have -3.3 at Casement and Dublin for Wed 12th mins. No other stations went lower.

    That'll do nicely, hold it there please :)


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    #38
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT at 6.3 C (the second week was 6.2)

    PRC at 86% after a relatively dry 28% in the second week.

    SUN has increased to 120% with the 136% achieved in the second week.


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    #39
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The max at Phoenix Park was 11.2 C and no rain was recorded. The scores for the bonus then will be as follows, with Joe Public and dacogawa snagging two extra points as explained in the rules (post #1) while rikand and traecy.1 each gained one super bonus point (hey hey). There were enough forecasts of a dry day to eliminate the category of 4 points so anyone under 1.0 mm has 3 pts, anyone 1.1 to 3.0 has 2 and the rest have 1 except 10.0 or over gets zero.

    I have inserted some very rough estimates for scores on other categories but these may change, based on what has already happened and what is being indicated on the models now to 31st.

    Forecaster _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_17th,max,rain______TOTALS

    ___ estimated________ 6.8_16.5_-4.0_100_120___ 11.2_0.0

    aimsir _____________ 00 _ 05 _ 00 _ 08 _ 04 __4_1 _________ 22
    Tae laidir ___________ 12 _ 09 _ 00 _ 06 _ 10 __3_3 _________ 43
    Yoghurt87 __________ 16 _ 06 _ 19 _ 02 _ 08 __2_0 _________ 53
    mickger844posts _____ 18 _ 11 _ 06 _ 10 _ 07 __2_1 _________ 55
    Jpmarn _____________19 _ 10 _ 00 _ 13 _ 10 __4_3 _________ 59
    omicron ____________ 19 _ 15 _ 10 _ 12 _ 08 __3_5 _________ 72
    Rikand _____________ 20 _ 15 _ 10 _ 08 _ 09 __4_5_1 _______ 72
    nilhg _____ (-25) ____ 20 _ 00 _ 11 _ 15 _ 08 __2_2 ___ 58-25 =33
    Danno _______ (-5) __ 20 _ 12 _ 08 _ 08 _ 07 __4_3 ___ 62-5 = 57
    kindredspirit _________20 _ 15 _ 05 _ 10 _ 09 __5_2 _________ 66
    jd _________________ 21 _ 07 _ 01 _ 09 _ 06 __1_5 _________ 50
    traecy.1 ____________ 22 _ 08 _ 15 _ 15 _ 06 __4_5_1 _______ 76
    Robxxx7 ____________22 _ 08 _ 08 _ 12 _ 03 __3_2 _________ 58
    Bsal _______________ 22 _ 00 _ 14 _ 14 _ 08 __5_2 _________ 65
    waterways __________ 23 _ 00 _ 07 _ 14 _ 10 __3_5 _________ 62
    200 motels __________23 _ 00 _ 12 _ 08 _ 07 __1_5 _________ 56

    Con Sensus _________ 24 _ 15 _ 10 _ 15 _ 08 __4_3 _________ 79 :mad:

    M.T. Cranium ________ 25 _ 08 _ 15 _ 12 _ 07 __1_5 _________ 73
    talkabout ____________24 _ 18 _ 19 _ 15 _ 06 __3_1 _________ 86
    lostinashford _ (-5) ___ 24 _ 08 _ 12 _ 13 _ 08 __4_3 ___ 72-5 = 67
    john mac ___________ 22 _ 00 _ 04 _ 15 _ 08 __1_5 _________ 55
    Harps ______________ 22 _ 01 _ 11 _ 12 _ 06 __5_2 _________ 59
    pauldry _____________22 _ 15 _ 10 _ 05 _ 06 __2_1 _________ 61
    dasa29 _____________ 22 _ 05 _ 10 _ 00 _08 __2_1 _________ 48
    DOCARCH ___________21 _ 03 _ 08 _ 14 _ 04 __2_3 _________ 55
    downwesht __________ 20 _ 15 _ 10 _ 11 _ 01 __3_5 _________ 65
    dacogawa ____ (-15) __ 18 _ 10 _ 13 _ 12 _ 04 __5_5_2 _ 69-15=54
    seafields __ (-5) ______ 17 _ 15 _ 00 _ 15 _ 00 __4_1 ___ 52-5 =47
    Joe public ___________ 16 _ 16 _ 00 _ 08 _ 06 __5_5_2 _______ 58
    Rameire __ (-10) _____ 16 _ 15 _ 00 _ 11 _ 05 __5_3 ___ 55-10 =45
    Okla _______________ 13 _ 19 _ 18 _ 08 _ 09 __1_1 _________ 69
    rebelcork ___________ 12 _ 00 _ 20 _ 08 _ 02 __2_3 _________ 47
    delw _______________ 12 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 05 __ 2_0 _________ 31

    So, these are very tentative total scores because anything but the bonus question could change by 5-10 points depending on what actually happens, in most cases. I kept the order of the forecast table so they aren't in any particular order.


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    #40
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    "very rough estimates" a bit rough ok, especially on the IMT score :)


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    #41
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    True enough, I can only drop a few now.


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    #42
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Max temp so far, 15.8C in Phoenix Park on the 19th


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    #43
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Hi gang, you may have noted, I am off the net (mostly) but will make it my primary task later today (here in Ottawa where it's -12) to update the forecast thread and start the April thread. If my forms friend looks in, set any question you like and I'll go with it. Gotta run now. Thanks. -- MTC


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    #44
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    I suggest as a bonus question in the April contest is the amount of sunshine at a selection of stations on Sunday April 20, Easter Sunday.


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    #45
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Took a quick look and the current IMT is around 6.8 C after today.

    Would seem that the rainfall and sunshine estimates I made are drifting in the right direction. But I missed the third week update and am going on the run of the monthly data and the past week of sunshine for that.

    Due to my travels, the March scoring could be a day or two late. The April thread has been opened for your entries.


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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final values include

    IMT at 6.9 C

    MAX at 16.0 C

    MIN at --3.3 C

    PRC at 102%

    SUN at 116%

    bonus question as reported earlier (see above)

    These final values are not way different from my estimates although the extremes remained unbroken which I had expected somewhat, so the provisional table will need a bit of adjustment. Will post that before most of you are up, I'm sure.


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    #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final scoring for March contest

    Hurray, MTC has caught up on his sleep and fixed the provisional scoring table -- fixed it good. Most scores went up and Con Sensus is really annoying us all now. 92 !! Oh well, congrats everybody.

    Forecaster _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_17th,max,rain______TOTALS

    ___ actual values____ 6.9_16.0_-3.3_102_116___ 11.2_0.0

    Con Sensus _________ 25 _ 20 _ 17 _ 14 _ 09 __4_3 _________ 92

    omicron ____________ 20 _ 20 _ 17 _ 11 _ 09 __3_5 _________ 85
    Rikand _____________ 21 _ 20 _ 17 _ 08 _ 08 __4_5_1 _______ 84

    lostinashford _ (-5) ___ 23 _ 13 _ 19 _ 13 _ 09 __4_3 ___ 84-5 = 79
    traecy.1 ____________ 23 _ 03 _ 18 _ 14 _ 07 __4_5_1 _______ 75
    Bsal _______________ 23 _ 02 _ 19 _ 13 _ 09 __5_2 _________ 73
    talkabout ____________23 _ 13 _ 12 _ 14 _ 07 __3_1 _________ 73
    Robxxx7 ____________23 _ 13 _ 15 _ 12 _ 04 __3_2 _________ 72
    Harps ______________ 21 _ 06 _ 18 _ 12 _ 07 __5_2 _________ 71
    waterways __________ 24 _ 00 _ 14 _ 15 _ 09 __3_5 _________ 70

    kindredspirit _________21 _ 10 _ 12 _ 09 _ 10 __5_2 _________ 69
    dacogawa ___ (-15) __ 17 _ 15 _ 20 _ 12 _ 05 __5_5_2 _ 81-15=66
    downwesht __________ 19 _ 20 _ 03 _ 12 _ 02 __3_5 _________ 64
    200 motels __________24 _ 00 _ 19 _ 07 _ 06 __1_5 _________ 62
    john mac ___________ 21 _ 00 _ 11 _ 14 _ 09 __1_5 _________ 61
    Okla _______________ 12 _ 14 _ 15 _ 08 _ 10 __1_1 _________ 61
    Jpmarn _____________20 _ 05 _ 06 _ 13 _ 09 __4_3 _________ 60
    dasa29 _____________ 21 _ 10 _ 17 _ 00 _09 __2_1 _________ 60

    DOCARCH ___________20 _ 00 _ 15 _ 14 _ 05 __2_3 _________ 59
    M.T. Cranium ________ 24 _ 03 _ 08 _ 11 _ 06 __1_5 _________ 58
    mickger844posts _____ 19 _ 06 _ 13 _ 09 _ 06 __2_1 _________ 56
    Danno _______ (-5) __ 21 _ 17 _ 01 _ 08 _ 06 __4_3 ___ 60-5 = 55
    jd _________________ 22 _ 02 _ 08 _ 10 _ 07 __1_5 _________ 55
    Yoghurt87 __________ 17 _ 11 _ 14 _ 02 _ 07 __2_0 _________ 53
    Rameire __ (-10) _____15 _ 20 _ 00 _ 12 _ 06 __5_3 ___ 61-10 =51
    pauldry _____________21 _ 10 _ 03 _ 06 _ 07 __2_1 _________ 50
    seafields __ (-5) ______ 16 _ 20 _ 00 _ 14 _ 00 __4_1 ___ 55-5 =50
    Joe public ___________ 15 _ 11 _ 00 _ 07 _ 05 __5_5_2 _______ 50

    rebelcork ___________ 11 _ 05 _ 13 _ 09 _ 03 __2_3 _________ 46
    nilhg _____ (-25) ____ 21 _ 00 _ 18 _ 14 _ 08 __2_2 ___ 65-25 =40

    delw _______________ 11 _ 00 _ 07 _ 12 _ 06 __2_0 _________ 38
    Tae laidir ___________ 13 _ 04 _ 00 _ 06 _ 09 __3_3 _________ 38
    aimsir ______________00 _ 10 _ 00 _ 08 _ 05 __4_1 _________ 28

    __________________________________________

    Updated annual scores will follow fairly soon, I hope. Congrats to omicron and rikand for leading the March scoring, which was generally quite high.


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    #48
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated Annual 2014 Scores

    Rank _ Forecaster ____ J ___ F ___ M __ TOTAL

    01 _ Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 __ 227

    01 _ Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 __ 222
    02 _ omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 __ 221
    03 _ rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 __ 217
    04 _ waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 __ 204
    05 _ traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 __ 196
    06 _ harps __________57 _ 63 _ 71 __ 191
    07 _ kindredspirit ____ 67 _ 49 _ 69 __ 185
    08 _ M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 __ 183
    08 _ 200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 __ 183
    10 _ John mac _______67 _ 53 _ 61 __ 181
    10 _ pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 __ 181
    12 _ dasa 29 ________61 _ 59 _ 60 __ 180
    13 _ mickger844posts_ 69 _ 53 _ 56 __ 178
    14 _ rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 __ 177
    15 _ jd _____________60 _ 58 _ 55 __ 173
    16 _ dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 __ 171
    17 _ Tae laidir _______46 _ 85 _ 38 __ 169
    18 _ Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 __ 168
    19 _ Danno _________54 _ 58 _ 55 __ 167
    20 _ jpmarn ________ 61 _ 45 _ 60 __ 166
    21 _ nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 __ 164
    22 _ DOCARCH ______54 _ 47 _ 59 __ 160
    23 _ talkabout ______ 59 _ -- _ 73 ___ 132
    24 _ lostinashford_____-- _ 51 _ 79 ___130
    25 _ okla ___________59 _ -- _ 61 ___120
    26 _ homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ -- __ 117
    27 _ delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 __ 113
    28 _ melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ -- __ 104
    29 _ seafields _______ 40 _ -- _ 50 ___ 90
    30 _ Robxxx7 _______ -- _ -- _ 72 ____ 72
    31 _ downwesht _____ -- _ -- _ 64 ____ 64
    32 _ yoghurt87 ______ -- _ -- _ 53 ____ 53
    33 _ octo ___________47 _ -- _ -- ____ 47
    34 _ rebelcork _______ -- _ -- _ 46 ____ 46
    35 _ aimsir _________ -- _ -- _ 35 ____ 28
    ________________________________________________________________

    Con Sensus has moved into first again, after a stunning 92-point eruption in March. We don't count Con in the human portion of the contest so at the top, it's a rather tight leaderboard now with Bsal, omicron and rikand virtually tied. The chase pack has shifted around quite a bit with some hefty changes in March.


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    #49
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    I'd love to have a chat with this Con Sensus person as they seem to have a fair good idea of what's in the air. Might have been a good April Fool stunt to get some radio show to do a Con Sensus interview.


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