PDC World Darts Championship 2019/20

Justin Credible Darts · 10-12-2019 2:25pm

US2 wrote: »

barney always has an extra gear for the worlds.

not what james richardson thinks

rickyjb · 10-12-2019 2:31pm

What's the best way to watch this outside of sky sports, PDCTV subscription for the month coupled with VPN?

Kingp35 · 10-12-2019 3:36pm

rickyjb wrote: »

What's the best way to watch this outside of sky sports, PDCTV subscription for the month coupled with VPN?

You could get a one month subscription to Sky Sports on NowTV to save the hassle of the VPN. I think it's €39 or so.

https://www.nowtv.com/ie/sports-overview

It seems to be 2 months for €39 at the moment.

Degag · 10-12-2019 5:57pm

US2 wrote: »

If young beats him I'll donate 50 to a charity of your choice. Not gonna happen. DeZwann isn't in the same form as he once was and barney always has an extra gear for the worlds. Think hell get last 16

He didn't last year.

Ah look i'd love if Barney rediscovered a bit of his form and some pride but at the moment it doesn't really look like it. Last ever tournament might reinvigorate him.

Justin Credible Darts · 10-12-2019 7:00pm

last thing we need is that excuse making drama queen doing well and getting yet another unwarranted and undeserved shot in the PL

Degag · 11-12-2019 2:00am

Anyone happen to know how many 180s there were in the worlds last year?

Healio · 11-12-2019 2:05am

Degag wrote: »

Anyone happen to know how many 180s there were in the worlds last year?

880

I am currently working on a piece, will post sometime tomorrow.

Justin Credible Darts · 11-12-2019 2:43am

Degag wrote: »

Anyone happen to know how many 180s there were in the worlds last year?

880 scores of 180

51 scores of 177

26 scores of 174

31 scores of 171

4 scores of 168

7 scores of 165

4 scores of 162

2 scores of 153

2 scores of 150

2 (intentional) scores of 141 plus

5 non-c/o 170s

2 non-c/o 164s

2 non-c/o 161s

1 non-c/o 149

rickyjb · 11-12-2019 4:17pm

Kingp35 wrote: »

You could get a one month subscription to Sky Sports on NowTV to save the hassle of the VPN. I think it's €39 or so.

https://www.nowtv.com/ie/sports-overview

It seems to be 2 months for €39 at the moment.

Thanks but big difference between £5 for PDCTV and a VPN sub which i can cancel for free vs €39. I don't mind the hassle as will mainly watch it on a laptop anyway.

Jolt2007 · 11-12-2019 6:10pm

Speaking of PDCTV , does anyone know if the sessions will be available on demand or do they only stream the games live on it? Can't find an answer to that on their website anyway. Will be working during some of the afternoon sessions so it'd be nice to have a way to catch up.

Justin Credible Darts · 11-12-2019 8:17pm

Jolt2007 wrote: »

Speaking of PDCTV , does anyone know if the sessions will be available on demand or do they only stream the games live on it? Can't find an answer to that on their website anyway. Will be working during some of the afternoon sessions so it'd be nice to have a way to catch up.

There will be plenty live streams
and a lot of games posted on youtube , I would not worry about not catching up

US2 · 12-12-2019 2:52am

Some good content on the live darts YouTube tonight. Long interviews with MvG, Taylor Wright and Mardle. Pity mardle wouldn't speak as much sense in the commentary box, always enjoy his interviews.

Justin Credible Darts · 12-12-2019 4:17am

US2 wrote: »

Some good content on the live darts YouTube tonight. Long interviews with MvG, Taylor Wright and Mardle. Pity mardle wouldn't speak as much sense in the commentary box, always enjoy his interviews.

Mardle is a total idiot who won nothing of note in his entire career yet gives advice on how to win trophies.

Said in an interview that the PL should be the top ten, then contradicts himself and says Wade who is in the top 10 should not be in despite Wade being 3rg in the league table and reaching the semi, and says mensur who is in the rop 10 should not be in, but durrant should.

Says one thing, themn contradicts himself and claims then whatever ghappens he called it

RebelButtMunch · 12-12-2019 8:56am

Jolt2007 wrote: »

Speaking of PDCTV , does anyone know if the sessions will be available on demand or do they only stream the games live on it? Can't find an answer to that on their website anyway. Will be working during some of the afternoon sessions so it'd be nice to have a way to catch up.

Says this on their site

PDCTV-HD £4.99 Recurring Monthly Subscription (Televised tournaments are UNAVAILABLE live in the UK, Ireland or Netherlands but users are able to watch European Tour & Players Championship events in full and TV event highlights

Kingp35 · 12-12-2019 1:43pm

Here's a link where you can predict the winner of every game. It's a great help for anyone entering the fantasy competition or for doing some bets.

http://www.event-prediction.com/registration.asp?comp=5401

My prediction for the Quarter Final Line Up is:

Michael Van Gerwen v James Wade
Nathan Aspinall v Michael Smith
Rob Cross v Peter Wright
Glen Durrant v Gerwyn price

Semi Final:

Michael Van Gerwen v Michael Smith
Rob Cross v Gerwyn Price

Final
Michael Van Gerwen beats Gerwyn Price

boomdocker · 12-12-2019 4:39pm

Kingp35 wrote: »

Here's a link where you can predict the winner of every game. It's a great help for anyone entering the fantasy competition or for doing some bets.

http://www.event-prediction.com/registration.asp?comp=5401

My prediction for the Quarter Final Line Up is:

Michael Van Gerwen v James Wade
Nathan Aspinall v Michael Smith
Rob Cross v Peter Wright
Glen Durrant v Gerwyn price

Semi Final:

Michael Van Gerwen v Michael Smith
Rob Cross v Gerwyn Price

Final
Michael Van Gerwen beats Gerwyn Price

I have the same actually except for Adrian Lewis instead of Smith, who will then be beaten by Aspinall
MvG and Price for the final tho, a country mile the best players over long format games and tournament

PTH2009 · 12-12-2019 4:41pm

1 more day to go

Darts at Christmas cant beat it, genius timing of it. Was the worlds always at xmas time even in the old days ??

Healio · 12-12-2019 4:41pm

180 Stats – Last 10 PDC World Championships:

Interesting overview from last 10 years:

Year of Tournament Total Tournament 180's Legs palyed per 180 Total Legs played Total Sets Played Avg. Legs Per Set Avg. 180's per Set Avg. 180's per set (prev. 3 years comb.) % Actual/Expected
2019 880 2.0773 1828 433 4.2217 2.0323 2.0653 ~
2018 657 2.0457 1344 324 4.1481 2.0278 2.0750 -2.1%
2017 708 1.9548 1384 330 4.1939 2.1455 2.0485 -1.0%
2016 654 2.0382 1333 319 4.1787 2.0502 1.9717 8.8%
2015 625 2.1824 1364 321 4.2492 1.9470 1.9265 6.4%
2014 602 2.2708 1367 314 4.3535 1.9172 1.9237 1.2%
2013 582 2.2577 1314 304 4.3224 1.9145 1.9025 0.8%
2012 582 2.2869 1331 300 4.4367 1.9400 1.8215 5.1%
2011 554 2.3014 1275 299 4.2642 1.8528 1.7325 12.0%
2010 507 2.4714 1253 303 4.1353 1.6733 1.6482 12.4%

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2018/19 – Review
For last year’s event, using the three previous years’ data (2018,2017 & 2016) there had been 2.0750 180’s scored for every set played.

Assuming that the run rate remained steady; as evidenced in the preceeding years, I made the following estimations for last year's tournament:

If every set and match had been a X-0 whitewash on sets that would have given 327 Sets and 679 - 180's (at assumed rate of 2.0750).

On the flip side; if all sets were played and each won 3-2 (excluding the tie-breaker legs for the moment) that would have given 559 sets & 1160 - 180's (at assumed rate of 2.0750).

Using the mid-point of the extremes, I estimated there would be:

443 sets & 919 - 180’s.

The Actual result was:

433 sets & 880 – 180’s. (a rate of 2.0323 maximums per set played).

There are two ways to interpret this: there was either not enough sets played, or there was not enough 180’s scored.

In terms of 180’s scored, the rate of 180’s per leg and per set were only slightly lower than expected. It definitely would lean towards not enough sets being played.

Other Observations which may have impacted 180's scored:
• MVG’s tendency to switch to 19’s has increased over the last two years. In 2017 WC he scored (66 180’s) in winning the title, then was down to (48 in 2018) where he lost a semi, then down again to 46 in winning last year’s event. ****For this reason alone, in my opinion he is under-priced at 11/8 (generally available) for player to hit most 180’s in the tournament, it would be a decent lay if the exchanges had a market****
• Potential heavy Maximum hitters getting dumped out early/not scoring maximums: De Zwaan (10) falling in R2 to Rob Cross (14), who went out in R4, Peter Wright (4) out in R1 etc.

Potential loss of sets in the run of the tournament:
• For many that struggled through it, in terms of sets played; 2019 was the worst set of quarter finals played in the last 10 years (25 sets played), next worst was 26 in 2010 (Two 5-0 whitewashes).
• Arguably Gary Anderson should be winning more than 1 set in a SF, even against MVG.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2019/20 - Projection

So, onto this year’s event, the workings of the tournament are unaltered, meaning max. 559 sets, min. 327 sets, with a midpoint of 443, assuming 2.0653 maximums per set (based on 3 yr average of 2017, 2018 & 2019):

Expected Sets Expected 180's**
Max Sets Played 559 1155
Min Sets Played 327 675
Mid-Point of extremes 443 915

**Expected Sets multiplied by three year Average of 180 per set (2.0653)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Betting Proposition:

Sportingindex.com have pitched (pun intended) their market as follows:

Current Buy Sell
Total Tournament 180's - 845 865

Mid-pointing at 855 (which works out at 1.9300 for our est. 443 sets, or 1.9745 for last years’ set total of 433). Potentially under-valuing the 180 Hit rate.

Spreadex.com have their market as follows:

Current Buy Sell
Total Tournament 180's - 858 878

Mid-pointing at 868 (which works out at 1.9593 for our est. 443 sets, or 2.0046 for last years’ set total of 433). Closer to my estimation.

PaddyPower/BetfairSportsbook have pitched their market 845.5 - Over 4/6 Under 11/10:

(which works out at 1.9074 if we see 443 sets, or 1.9515 at last years’ set total of 433). Again potentially under valuing the hit rate.

They are also offering Powerplays:

860+ - Evens
880+ - 3/1
900+ - 11/1 (if you've read this far, you'll probably know where this is going.)

Other operators:
Will Hill (sponsors??): no offers as a single, 860+ mixed in with muggy trebles
Skybet: 860.5 - Over 10/11 Under 10/11; Specials: 850+ 4/7; 880+ 5/2; 900+ 9/1; 950+ 100/1; 975+ 150/1; 1000+ 250/1
Sportingbet: Over 850.5 3/5 Under 850.5 6/5
Boylesports: Specials: 855+ 4/7 925+ 6/1 975+ 22/1
Ladbrokes: No offers
StanJames (Unibet): Over 855.5 Evens Under 855.5 8/11
Coral: same as sisters site Ladbrokes
Betfred: 850.5 – Over 5/6 Under 5/6
Betway: 855.5 - Over 5/6 Under 5/6 Specials: 870+ 11/10; 880+ 11/8; 900+ 2/1

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Suggested Play:

Back 900 or more 180’s @ 11/1 – Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook

OR

Back 900 or more 180’s @ 9/1 – Skybet

For those who may be risk-averse

You could hedge your stakes below:

Back over 845.5 @ 4/6 – Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook OR Back over 850+ @ 4/7 – Skybet OR Back Over 850.5 @ 5/6 Betfred

For example, bet 120 on Over 845.5 @ 4/6 (to win 80), have the potential 80 on 900 or more 180’s @ 11/1 (to win 880); making it a 200 out-lay with a very good chance (in my opinion) of breaking even, with the bonus of having an interest in every match of the tournament, and potentially banking a profit of 880

ArmaniJeanss · 12-12-2019 4:44pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

1 more day to go

Darts at Christmas cant beat it, genius timing of it. Was the worlds always at xmas time even in the old days ??

No, it was first week in January back in the day.
1986

Kingp35 · 12-12-2019 4:54pm

That's some post Healio. I'll have to take you up on the suggested bet.

Justin Credible Darts · 12-12-2019 5:21pm

Kingp35 wrote: »

Here's a link where you can predict the winner of every game. It's a great help for anyone entering the fantasy competition or for doing some bets.

http://www.event-prediction.com/registration.asp?comp=5401

My prediction for the Quarter Final Line Up is:

Michael Van Gerwen v James Wade
Nathan Aspinall v Michael Smith
Rob Cross v Peter Wright
Glen Durrant v Gerwyn price

Semi Final:

Michael Van Gerwen v Michael Smith
Rob Cross v Gerwyn Price

Final
Michael Van Gerwen beats Gerwyn Price

I did that last week and got the exact same last 8, last 4 and final and MVG to win.

Justin Credible Darts · 12-12-2019 5:25pm

PTH2009 wrote: »

1 more day to go

Darts at Christmas cant beat it, genius timing of it. Was the worlds always at xmas time even in the old days ??

for the then WDC now PDc it was originally always a day or two after xmas when it started, and stayed that way from 1994 to 2006.
2006 was the first time it was started before xmas day and with the expansion over the years in numbers it started earlier and earlier.

The bdo amateur comp would always start after new years day, usually about the 6th january

rickyjb · 12-12-2019 5:57pm

Healio wrote: »

180 Stats – Last 10 PDC World Championships:

Interesting overview from last 10 years:

Year of Tournament Total Tournament 180's Legs palyed per 180 Total Legs played Total Sets Played Avg. Legs Per Set Avg. 180's per Set Avg. 180's per set (prev. 3 years comb.) % Actual/Expected
2019 880 2.0773 1828 433 4.2217 2.0323 2.0653 ~
2018 657 2.0457 1344 324 4.1481 2.0278 2.0750 -2.1%
2017 708 1.9548 1384 330 4.1939 2.1455 2.0485 -1.0%
2016 654 2.0382 1333 319 4.1787 2.0502 1.9717 8.8%
2015 625 2.1824 1364 321 4.2492 1.9470 1.9265 6.4%
2014 602 2.2708 1367 314 4.3535 1.9172 1.9237 1.2%
2013 582 2.2577 1314 304 4.3224 1.9145 1.9025 0.8%
2012 582 2.2869 1331 300 4.4367 1.9400 1.8215 5.1%
2011 554 2.3014 1275 299 4.2642 1.8528 1.7325 12.0%
2010 507 2.4714 1253 303 4.1353 1.6733 1.6482 12.4%
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2018/19 – Review
For last year’s event, using the three previous years’ data (2018,2017 & 2016) there had been 2.0750 180’s scored for every set played.

Assuming that the run rate remained steady; as evidenced in the preceeding years, I made the following estimations for last year's tournament:

If every set and match had been a X-0 whitewash on sets that would have given 327 Sets and 679 - 180's (at assumed rate of 2.0750).

On the flip side; if all sets were played and each won 3-2 (excluding the tie-breaker legs for the moment) that would have given 559 sets & 1160 - 180's (at assumed rate of 2.0750).

Using the mid-point of the extremes, I estimated there would be:

443 sets & 919 - 180’s.

The Actual result was:

433 sets & 880 – 180’s. (a rate of 2.0323 maximums per set played).

There are two ways to interpret this: there was either not enough sets played, or there was not enough 180’s scored.

In terms of 180’s scored, the rate of 180’s per leg and per set were only slightly lower than expected. It definitely would lean towards not enough sets being played.

Other Observations which may have impacted 180's scored:
• MVG’s tendency to switch to 19’s has increased over the last two years. In 2017 WC he scored (66 180’s) in winning the title, then was down to (48 in 2018) where he lost a semi, then down again to 46 in winning last year’s event. ****For this reason alone, in my opinion he is under-priced at 11/8 (generally available) for player to hit most 180’s in the tournament, it would be a decent lay if the exchanges had a market****
• Potential heavy Maximum hitters getting dumped out early/not scoring maximums: De Zwaan (10) falling in R2 to Rob Cross (14), who went out in R4, Peter Wright (4) out in R1 etc.

Potential loss of sets in the run of the tournament:
• For many that struggled through it, in terms of sets played; 2019 was the worst set of quarter finals played in the last 10 years (25 sets played), next worst was 26 in 2010 (Two 5-0 whitewashes).
• Arguably Gary Anderson should be winning more than 1 set in a SF, even against MVG.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2019/20 - Projection

So, onto this year’s event, the workings of the tournament are unaltered, meaning max. 559 sets, min. 327 sets, with a midpoint of 443, assuming 2.0653 maximums per set (based on 3 yr average of 2017, 2018 & 2019):

Expected Sets Expected 180's**
Max Sets Played 559 1155
Min Sets Played 327 675
Mid-Point of extremes 443 915**Expected Sets multiplied by three year Average of 180 per set (2.0653)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Betting Proposition:

Sportingindex.com have pitched (pun intended) their market as follows:

Current Buy Sell
Total Tournament 180's - 845 865Mid-pointing at 855 (which works out at 1.9300 for our est. 443 sets, or 1.9745 for last years’ set total of 433). Potentially under-valuing the 180 Hit rate.

Spreadex.com have their market as follows:

Current Buy Sell
Total Tournament 180's - 858 878 Mid-pointing at 868 (which works out at 1.9593 for our est. 443 sets, or 2.0046 for last years’ set total of 433). Closer to my estimation.
PaddyPower/BetfairSportsbook have pitched their market 845.5 - Over 4/6 Under 11/10:

(which works out at 1.9074 if we see 443 sets, or 1.9515 at last years’ set total of 433). Again potentially under valuing the hit rate.

They are also offering Powerplays:

860+ - Evens
880+ - 3/1
900+ - 11/1 (if you've read this far, you'll probably know where this is going.)

Other operators:
Will Hill (sponsors??): no offers as a single, 860+ mixed in with muggy trebles
Skybet: 860.5 - Over 10/11 Under 10/11; Specials: 850+ 4/7; 880+ 5/2; 900+ 9/1; 950+ 100/1; 975+ 150/1; 1000+ 250/1
Sportingbet: Over 850.5 3/5 Under 850.5 6/5
Boylesports: Specials: 855+ 4/7 925+ 6/1 975+ 22/1
Ladbrokes: No offers
StanJames (Unibet): Over 855.5 Evens Under 855.5 8/11
Coral: same as sisters site Ladbrokes
Betfred: 850.5 – Over 5/6 Under 5/6
Betway: 855.5 - Over 5/6 Under 5/6 Specials: 870+ 11/10; 880+ 11/8; 900+ 2/1

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Suggested Play:

Back 900 or more 180’s @ 11/1 – Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook

OR

Back 900 or more 180’s @ 9/1 – Skybet

For those who may be risk-averse

You could hedge your stakes below:

Back over 845.5 @ 4/6 – Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook OR Back over 850+ @ 4/7 – Skybet OR Back Over 850.5 @ 5/6 Betfred

For example, bet 120 on Over 845.5 @ 4/6 (to win 80), have the potential 80 on 900 or more 180’s @ 11/1 (to win 880); making it a 200 out-lay with a very good chance (in my opinion) of breaking even, with the bonus of having an interest in every match of the tournament, and potentially banking a profit of 880

Really well put together post and very interesting, thanks!

However - you've made a key assumption that 1 of the variables, the total number of sets played, will be the midpoint of the min/max range. Why do you make this assumption? I think the reality is that a lot of the matches, particularly early on, are very 1 sided, so the probability is that the total number of sets will be lower than the mid point. EDIT: Sorry I see you have this info in the table at the top, more or less proves my point unless you think there will be less 1 sided matches maybe.

This may explain why the bookies estimates are lower than yours. I would also assume that in their prediction model they are likely taking into account player's form over the course of this season, and numerous other factors. Hard to beat the bookies! Will be interesting to see how it turns out, fair play if you're right.

Another edit: if you take the average of the last 3 years for total sets, as you've done for 180's per set, the prediction for this year comes out at 748....

Healio · 13-12-2019 3:23am

Rickyjb, I dont want to come across as almighty; and what I state is true.

You raise very valid points, I'll try and address some of them, but I am open minded, and am also intrigued by your viewpoint.

The crux of my posts is that 900+ 180's in the tournament is not an 11/1 shot (for me). I'd even back it at 9/1. Anything less, no thanks.

rickyjb wrote: »

However - you've made a key assumption that 1 of the variables, the total number of sets played, will be the midpoint of the min/max range. Why do you make this assumption?

Just using as a guide, I'm assuming the total will be within 10-20 sets of this. I had a look at %of max sets played, it is averaging 77% in the last three years. Or 430 sets.

rickyjb wrote: »

I think the reality is that a lot of the matches, particularly early on, are very 1 sided, so the probability is that the total number of sets will be lower than the mid point.

I wouldn't disagree, I have an allowance of 10 less expected, if the 180 rate is steady. Hopefully its higher!

rickyjb wrote: »

This may explain why the bookies estimates are lower than yours. I would also assume that in their prediction model they are likely taking into account player's form over the course of this season, and numerous other factors. Hard to beat the bookies! Will be interesting to see how it turns out, fair play if you're right.

I just think there is enough there; to take either the 11/1 or the 9/1.

rickyjb wrote: »

Another edit: if you take the average of the last 3 years for total sets, as you've done for 180's per set, the prediction for this year comes out at 748....

2017 & 2018 - only had 40 players, with a best of 3 first round for 8 matches. One would need to make an allowance for that.

Tarzann · 13-12-2019 1:14pm

Healio, you don't appear to have allowed for the change in format, increasing to 96 players, no more short format preliminary round.
This can only reduce the 180s per leg / increase the legs per 180 ratio, which as we see increased by 0.03 for 2019 vs 2018.

US2 · 13-12-2019 6:38pm

Could we see 3 upsets tonight Burness , Nentjes and Humphreies all decent players .

marklazarcovic · 13-12-2019 7:19pm

Any timetable pic floating around?

Kingp35 · 13-12-2019 8:26pm

Klaasen has completely changed his throwing action, puts his arm to the side a bit now. It looks very messy. Burness could cause an upset here.

Deeper Blue · 13-12-2019 8:28pm

I hope Burness was paid good money to wear that shirt

Kingp35 · 13-12-2019 8:42pm

NDWC wrote: »

I hope Burness was paid good money to wear that shirt

It must be something with the Northern Irish lads because Dolan wore the worst shirt I've ever seen in the Players Champs.

PDC World Darts Championship 2019/20

Comments