Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

1131416181932

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    For anyone on twitter, I recommend following @flareaware

    It sends out images of the sun every hour.

    Website is flareaware

    Here is the latest pic
    222345.jpg




  • Still trending downwards, when it should still be rising towards the (predicted) peak early next year.

    sunspot.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Yeah, it's been really quiet recently, especially compared to what it should be like at this stage in it's cycle.

    Since reading this thread last year and realising the connection between low sun activity and more extreme weather patterns, I've been Sun watching ever since. :)
    Still trending downwards, when it should still be rising towards the (predicted) peak early next year.

    sunspot.gif




  • Just seen this posted on the sustainability & environmental issues forum.
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528843.700-solar-maximum-oh-you-just-missed-it.html
    WAITING for solar fireworks to reach a grand finale next year? Um, sorry, looks like you already missed them. Structures in the sun's corona indicate that the peak in our star's latest cycle of activity has been and gone, at least in its northern hemisphere.
    The southern hemisphere, meanwhile, is on a sluggish rise to solar maximum and may not hit its peak until 2014.
    This bizarre asymmetry strengthens a theory that has been bubbling among sun watchers for the past few years: our star is headed for hibernation. Having the sun's outbursts turned off for a while would provide a better baseline for studying how they influence Earth's climate.
    Observations of magnetic footprints called sunspots revealed in the 1800s that the sun moves through a roughly 11-year cycle of activity. Around a solar maximum, the star ramps up production of sunspots, flares and ejections of plasma. During a solar minimum, things quieten down.




  • Still trending downwards, when it should still be rising towards the (predicted) peak early next year.

    sunspot.gif
    I was going to post a new copy of this, but the previous one auto updated.
    Still very low and dropping already! Does this mean an early end to the cycle?


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora






  • latest_512_4500.jpg

    Sure looking quiet up there!

    edit@00:00 7/12/2012




  • So it looks more and more like we're going into a grand minimum, could be very interesting for the weather over the next decade or so.
    Summary
    • The north pole is changing polarity earlier

    without enough sunspots, causing doubts
    on the current flux transport dynamo.
    • The sun now would have quadruple
    structure.
    • The same anomaly (longer sunspot period
    and the asymmetry) appears to take place
    around Maunder and Dalton minimums.

    http://mr2012.pppl.gov/Slides/tsuneta.pdf

    image2ujb.png

    Richard C. Altrock (Air Force Research Laboratory, Sunspot, NM USA)
    ...the solar maximum smoothed sunspot number in the northern hemisphere already occurred at 2011.6 +- 0.3. In the southern hemisphere the Rush to the Poles, if it exists, is very poorly defined. A linear fit to several maxima would reach 76{\deg} in the south at 2014.2. "
    http://arxiv.org/abs/1209.2963


    Original links are from undertow on theoildrum.com


  • Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭omicron


    4 major flares in 48 hours, thought to be at or close to the peak of the cycle.

    Link.




  • Looks like the "Twin peaks" theory is evolving as expected.

    If so, the only way from here is down.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    While we are enjoying the warmth and sunshine at the moment, someone in the Irish Times editorial office decided it was the perfect time to break the news of the coming mini-ice age. :D
    Sun’s bizarre activity may trigger another ice age.
    The sun is acting bizarrely and scientists have no idea why. Solar activity is in gradual decline, a change from the norm which in the past triggered a 300-year-long mini ice age.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/sun-s-bizarre-activity-may-trigger-another-ice-age-1.1460937


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,080 ✭✭✭EoghanIRL


    The sun completes a small and large solar cycle . The smaller cycle is peaking this year with less activity than expected. The gran cycle isn't due to occur again untill about 34 thousand years I believe so until then we are ok . I don't think we should expect a mini ice age but the introduction of new climates yes .

    Look at the Sahara desert . There is evidence from the soil and landscape that it was once a forest. Many cave paintings from the last peak also show people swimming which is supported by the landscape and rock formation . Also for there to be rain in that region meant that it actually had to be approx 10
    Degrees warmer ! So to finished my waffle I believe we can expect new climates and more biodiversity but I don't think a mini ice age because dont they occur due to polar change rather than solar cycles ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    You'd be better off looking for some type of massive volcanic event to trigger a "mini ice age" I think.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    This is the part that has me wondering.

    "The fall-off in sunspot activity still has the potential to affect our weather for the worse, Dr Elliott said. Research by Prof Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading showed how low solar activity could alter the position of the jet stream over the north Atlantic, causing severe cold during winter months. This was likely the cause of the very cold and snowy winters during 2009 and 2010, Dr Elliott said."


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,315 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    Joe Public wrote: »
    This is the part that has me wondering.

    "The fall-off in sunspot activity still has the potential to affect our weather for the worse, Dr Elliott said. Research by Prof Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading showed how low solar activity could alter the position of the jet stream over the north Atlantic, causing severe cold during winter months. This was likely the cause of the very cold and snowy winters during 2009 and 2010, Dr Elliott said."

    That very same pattern of blocking would surely cause heat waves like our current heat wave during summer months?
    I wonder is there any record of summer heatwaves back during the maunder minimum?


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Joe Public wrote: »
    This is the part that has me wondering.

    "The fall-off in sunspot activity still has the potential to affect our weather for the worse, Dr Elliott said. Research by Prof Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading showed how low solar activity could alter the position of the jet stream over the north Atlantic, causing severe cold during winter months. This was likely the cause of the very cold and snowy winters during 2009 and 2010, Dr Elliott said."

    A mixture of the lowish solar activity and the reduction of Arctic sea ice and snow cover are contributing to the very unusual and slow moving jet patterns of recent years. Reduced snow cover having the biggest summer impact, reduced sea ice (heat release during freezing) having the biggest Autumn impact, and solar and sea ice affecting Winter and Spring.

    It was only a matter of time that we got caught in a long lasting upper ridge in summer, which would bring a prolonged hot and dry spell. We'd been unlucky in recent summer, with the ridge occurring over Greenland (causing the big melt from there we heard about) and the trough then falling over the British Isles.
    This summer we have the reverse so far:)




  • http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Rare-solar-cycle-has-cold-implications-for-UK-climate
    NASA last week confirmed their prediction that the current solar cycle 24 is likely to be the weakest since 1906.

    Intriguingly, the current solar cycle shows a striking similarity with solar cycle 5 which was also very weak, with the same double peak as the current cycle, and ran from approximately the mid 1790s to around 1810.

    Solar cycle 6 was weaker still and stretched from around 1810 to the early 1820s.

    Solar cycles 5 and 6 were so unusual that they were named the Dalton solar minimum after meteorologist John Dalton and coincided with a period of increasingly cold winters and poor summers.

    This type of climate is a result of a jet stream that’s positioned further south than normal – caused, it’s thought at least in part, by the behaviour of the sun.

    The mechanism as to why weak solar cycles may affect the position of the jet stream is poorly understood.

    But a more southerly positioned jet stream is the reason why the UK has recently seen a return of cold snowy winters and a run of poor summers.

    If this really is the peak of the solar cycle and the solar cycle really does influence weather, then the next few winters will be progressively cooler or will increased co2 levels weaken the effect?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    If this really is the peak of the solar cycle and the solar cycle really does influence weather, then the next few winters will be progressively cooler or will increased co2 levels weaken the effect?

    There are so many different highly dymanic factors at play when it comes to the weather, one thing can be offset by another. When it comes to winter weather here, Ireland is such a small location and in such a poor position to get regular significant cold winters. The exact location of where an area of high pressure will set up or even the movement of a small shortwave derailing or missing a developing high can make all the difference to whether we get a significant cold spell or miss out while somewhere to our west or southwest goes into the deep freeze. Thats the type of scale I'd be looking at when considering our winter potential.




  • http://spaceweather.com/
    LONELY SUNSPOT, QUIET SUN: The sunspot number has dropped to its lowest level of the year. Solitary sunspot AR1841 sits all alone at the center of an otherwise blank solar disk. It is quiet and poses no threat for strong flares:
    NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of M- or X-class solar flares during the next 24-48 hours. If the forecast holds, the sun will continue a spate of deep quiet that has lasted for more than a week, nearly-flatlining the sun's x-ray output.
    The quiet spell is a bit strange because 2013 is supposed to be a year of solar maximum, with lots of flares and sunspots. Supporting this view are data from NASA-supported observatories which show that the sun's magnetic field is poised to flip--a long-held sign that Solar Max has arrived. Nevertheless, solar activity is low.
    One possible explanation is that Solar Max is double-peaked and we are in the valley between peaks. If so, solar activity could surge again in late 2013-2014. No one can say for sure, though. Researchers have been studying sunspots for more than 400 years, and we still cannot predict the behavior of the solar cycle. Continued quiet or stormy space weather? Both are possible in the weeks and months ahead. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.
    latest_512_4500.jpg
    Dynamic image
    Almost spotless.




  • Looks like the suns recent "snooze" has awakened the debate.
    http://www.trust.org/item/20130918115439-cn7ub/?source=hptop

    LONDON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Predictions that 2013 would see an upsurge in solar activity and geomagnetic storms disrupting power grids and communications systems have proved to be a false alarm. Instead, the current peak in the solar cycle is the weakest for a century.
    Subdued solar activity has prompted controversial comparisons with the Maunder Minimum, which occurred between 1645 and 1715, when a prolonged absence of sunspots and other indicators of solar activity coincided with the coldest period in the last millennium.
    The comparisons have sparked a furious exchange of views between observers who believe the planet could be on the brink of another period of cooling, and scientists who insist there is no evidence that temperatures are about to fall.
    New Scientist magazine blasted those who predicted a mini ice age, opening a recent article on the surprising lack of sunspots this year with the bold declaration: "Those hoping that the sun could save us from climate change look set for disappointment".
    "The recent lapse in solar activity is not the beginning of a decades-long absence of sunspots, a dip that might have cooled the climate. Instead it represents a shorter, less pronounced downturn that happens every century or so," ("Sun's quiet spell not the start of a mini ice age" July 12).
    The unusually low number of sunspots in recent years "is not an indication that we are going into a Maunder Minimum" according to Giuliana DeToma, a solar scientist at the High Altitude Observatory in Colorado.
    But DeToma admitted "we will do not know how or why the Maunder Minimum started, so we cannot predict the next one."


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    "WEAK MAX: The weakest Solar Max in 100 years continues today with another 24 hours of quiet. None of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun are actively flaring. NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 5% chance of M-class solar flares. Solar flare alerts:"

    http://spaceweather.com/


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    From Paul Hudson's BBC blog, Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist.
    It’s known by climatologists as the ‘Little Ice Age’, a period in the 1600s when harsh winters across the UK and Europe were often severe.

    The severe cold went hand in hand with an exceptionally inactive sun, and was called the Maunder solar minimum.

    Now a leading scientist from Reading University has told me that the current rate of decline in solar activity is such that there’s a real risk of seeing a return of such conditions.

    http://www.live.bbc.co.uk/blogs/blogpaulhudson/posts/Real-risk-of-a-Maunder-minimum-Little-Ice-Age-says-leading-scientist


  • Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    Duiske wrote: »
    From Paul Hudson's BBC blog, Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist.



    I think it would be good to balance this view point a little.

    Based on his findings he’s raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum
    from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%.

    and


    According to research conducted by Michael Mann in 2001, a
    vociferous advocate of man-made global warming, the Maunder minimum of the 1600s
    was estimated to have shaved 0.3C to 0.4C from global
    temperatures.


    It is worth
    stressing that most scientists believe long term global warming hasn’t gone
    away. Any global cooling caused by this natural phenomenon would ultimately be
    temporary, and if projections are correct, the long term warming caused by
    carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would eventually swamp this
    solar-driven cooling.


    Reading this paper attached to the blog, AO\NOA and SST's\High pressure play a big role in lowering the Northern Hemisphere winter temperature.

    If global cooling went against global warming, I do not know who would win. :)

    One thing would happen, lots more energy for storms.




  • I think that the Maunder minimum was more of a change of weather pattern than a global cooling event, it appears that the gulf stream was much weaker during that period and that led to much colder winters in Western Europe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre







  • Interesting that now the consensus appears to be coming round to this being the per-cursor to a Maunder minimum, could cause some serious changes to the global weather patterns.

    The main question has to be, will the total solar output drop sufficiently enough to cancel out the additional heat that human activity has added to the environment.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 478 ✭✭Stella Virgo


    Has the Sun gone to sleep? Strange solar behavior baffles astrophysicists


    January 17, 2014 – UNIVERSE – Scientists are saying that the Sun is in a phase of “solar lull” – meaning that it has fallen asleep – and it is baffling them. History suggests that periods of unusual “solar lull” coincide with bitterly cold winters. Rebecca Morelle reports for BBC Newsnight on the effect this inactivity could have on our current climate, and what the implications might be for global warming. –BBC


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Int resting that now the consensus appears to be coming round to this being the per-cursor to a Maunder minimum, could cause some serious changes to the global weather patterns.

    The main question has to be, will the total solar output drop sufficiently enough to cancel out the additional heat that human activity has added to the environment.

    The article itself says the difference solar radiation makes is "very small", and could offset the difference for only about 5 years.

    They estimate a 10-20% chance of a Maunder type period within the next 40 years, so the odds are against it happening in our lifetime anyway, but you never know. The Sun really is fasinating.




  • The article itself says the difference solar radiation makes is "very small", and could offset the difference for only about 5 years.

    They estimate a 10-20% chance of a Maunder type period within the next 40 years, so the odds are against it happening in our lifetime anyway, but you never know. The Sun really is fasinating.
    Well scientists may soon find if their presumption that the difference is "very small" or otherwise, the same could of course be said avout the possibility of a Maunder minimum.

    Only a decade ago cycle 24 was predicted to be one of the strongest ever.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Well scientists may soon find if their presumption that the difference is "very small" or otherwise, the same could of course be said avout the possibility of a Maunder minimum.

    Only a decade ago cycle 24 was predicted to be one of the strongest ever.

    The connection between sunspots and climate still isn't really understood, there are different theories as to why some areas (like northern Europe) see periods of colder weather during low solar activity while other areas (like southern Europe) don't.

    Thanks to Greenland ice cores we can compare solar variance with temperatures through history, so thats why I think they are pretty confident that the difference it makes overall is very small.

    I think that the lack of solar activity did play a part in the Little Ice Age but it was probably a combination of things. The very cold winters in Europe began decades before the onset of the Maunder minimum, so clearly there were other factors at play. There was a report in 2012 that found there were some very long lasting volcanic episodes during that time with a serious amount of gases released.

    I think that it's more likely that we'd see a sudden climate jolt from a major volcanic event than from solar variance myself. Far more unpredictable too!


Advertisement