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2020 Arc De Triomphe

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  • 20-08-2020 6:35pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭


    Best odds.

    Love 5/2

    Enable 3/1

    Ghaiyyath 6/1

    Stradivarius 14/1

    Mishriff 14/1

    Japan 20/1

    Daring Tact 20/1

    Serpentine 20/1

    Raabihah 20/1

    Magical 22/1

    Port Guillaume 25/1

    Sottsass 25/1

    Fancy Blue 25/1

    Anthony Van Dyck 33/1

    Suave Richard 33/1




    It's probably a good time to be picking a big priced outsider for the Arc as surely some of the short priced horses will drop out and the odds of the whole field will shrink.


    There are legitimate concerns about the front 4 in the betting.


    Love has probable ground concerns, is very short in price and is handicapped by Aidan O'Brien's record with 3yos in the Arc ( he has had no 3yo winner from dozens of runners )

    Enable is nailed on to make the first 3, she is uncomplicated but she is a 6yo.

    Ghaiyyath flopped in last year's Arc and may not run at all if the ground is Soft. He is probably a bit underestimated, that 6/1 would look tasty if he was to run on reasonable ground.

    Stradivarius was exposed when he ran in top 12f company. Like a lot of top stayers before him he has a good chance of finishing in the top 4. He's a place prospect and his relationship with Soft or Heavy ground is complicated by his overcoming his aversion to it in this year's Ascot Gold Cup.

    Outside of the top 4 Mishriff has already conquered France at 10 1/2f and handles all ground. If he stays he's a big threat. He has increased his rating every single time that he has run.

    Japan is unreliable.

    Had to look up who Daring Tact was. This years Japanese 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winner, with the age and sex allowance she has a sporting chance if she turns up.

    Serpentine is very likeable although his spectacular Derby win is probably a fluke. He will stay if he runs and I'd back him on the day because he's been good to me.

    Raabihah is a big French chance and this daughter of Sea The Stars heads for the Prix Vermielle . Her trainer is gung-ho about her chances and she has run well in top company over shorter, her 2nd and 3rd dams are Oaks winners so stamina is not in doubt. One to take a price on now.

    I'm a sucker for Magical, I have been expecting her to do a Found by winning the Arc as an older horse. She has first 4 prospects and is a good place bet if she runs there. Her likely targets are the Irish and UK Champion Stakes with the Arc in between, but if O'Brien is cock sure about Love then he may only run Love alone in the race.

    Port Guillaume is going the right way but this looks a bit too high class for him.

    Sottsass has been flying under the radar this year. He's being trained for the Arc. He should finish in the first 4 if the ground is no worse than Good to Soft.

    Fancy Blue would be worth chancing if she actually ran in the race.

    Russian Emperor ( wtf is he doing being this low in the betting?)

    Anthony Van Dyck is not good enough

    Suave Richard is a half- decent Japanese horse. As a 6yo he should be twice these odds.


    Thoughts?


«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭byronbay2


    I fancy Love strongly and have already backed her @ 6.2 on BF, immediately after her Oaks win. Obviously the draw can be a very significant factor in The Arc, especially with a big field, so I'm hoping for a field of 10-12 and a draw between 3 and 7. Love seems very uncomplicated with a high cruising speed, good turn of foot and plenty of stamina for 12f. Ryan Moore should be able to place her where he wants, kick on about 2f out and gallop all the way to the line.

    She will receive 7lb from Enable and 10lb from the older male horses: a very handy allowance! Also, as a 3 year-old, she could still find plenty more improvement between now and the 4th of October. Aidan O'Brien's horses tend to improve from race to race during the season. Very soft or heavy ground would be a worry but (surprisingly enough) the going is usually fine at Longchamp in early October. Good to soft or better and I think Love will be VERY hard to beat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    The odds are very UK centric while the French horses are trained for the Arc whereas the UK and Irish horses see it as something to have a rattle at at the end of a busy summer for their top horses. Ye can see from the last 5 years that the French horses tend to outperform their odds. With 45% of the 1st four placed horses being trained in France. This year the first French trained horse in the betting comes in at 9th place and she is 20/1

    2019 Very Soft

    1. Waldgeist ( France) 5yo horse 13.1/1
    2. Enable ( UK) 5yo mare 1/2f
    3. Sottsass ( France) 3yo Colt 6.6/1
    4. Japan ( Ireland) 3yo Colt 9/1

    2018 Good

    1. Enable ( UK) 4yo filly evens fav
    2. Sea Of Class ( UK) 3yo filly 6/1
    3. Cloth Of Stars ( France) 5yo horse 28/1
    4. Waldgeist ( France) 4yo Colt 6/1

    2017 Soft

    1. Enable UK 3yo filly 10/11f
    2. Cloth Of Stars ( France) 4yo Colt 20/1
    3. Ulysses ( UK) 4yo Colt 9/1
    4. Order Of St George ( Ireland) 5yo horse 8/1

    2016 Good

    1. Found ( Ireland) 4yo filly 6/1
    2. Highland Reel ( Ireland) 4yo Colt 20/1
    3. Order Of St George ( Ireland) 4yo Colt 14/1
    4. Siljan's Saga ( France) 6yo mare 100/1

    2015 Good

    1. Golden Horn ( UK) 3yo Colt 9/2
    2. Flintshire ( French) 5yo horse 20/1
    3. New Bay ( French) 3yo Colt 5/1
    4. Treve ( French) 5yo mare evens fav


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Fancy Blue at 25s if she goes.

    Russian Emperor is gone to HK so shouldn’t be in the betting?


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,375 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    I backed Love for the Arc after the Oaks. Said it then, but it was clear that this filly simply had to have a crack at the Arc after the incredible time it clocked, none of the horses than ran the Derby matched her. She smashed the opposition up today again, but to be fair, it was a mediocre race. I think she is the best filly/mare out there now, and clearly the best three year old. If she can get a fair draw and ground that isn't too hard or too soft, I really struggle to see what beats. She has the allowances, she has the form, Enable is on the wane. Ghaiyyath is the big danger for me.


  • Posts: 7,792 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Happy enough to go each way Japan. 33s in PP I see. 4th in this
    last year, and can do better this time, if he shows up.
    More weight this time I think? Well, he's not 3 anymore anyway :D

    The form on Irishracing is pretty poor for foreign races. Still, no need to
    subscribe, or sign up, so it'll do.

    Some great form this colt has on soft. The King Edward VII last year at Ascot stands out.

    All 3 of his runs this year have been on good, or better ground. All group 1 races too. The latest at Ascot, over the Arc trip, he came a poor 3rd of 3, but a line can be drawn through that as the ground was good to firm.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,531 ✭✭✭pottokblue


    I'm still wait and see but I'd be happy to be on Love, Fancyblue, Ghaiyyath and whatever saddle Pierrecharlesbudot is sitting on....


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Magical's staying on 2nd this week, was the best 1m4f trial this year. She's a lock to get involved here. too early to be betting it though


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Magical's staying on 2nd this week, was the best 1m4f trial this year. She's a lock to get involved here. too early to be betting it though

    Has no chance at top level now, how can it turn tables on Enable who it has beaten a number of times never mind the superstar upcoming in Love, hottest Arc in some while this surely?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,345 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Magical exposed. Cant see why she would turn the tables of Ghaiyyath or even Enable.

    6/1 is value for Ghaiyyath.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Happy enough to go each way Japan. 33s in PP I see. 4th in this
    last year, and can do better this time, if he shows up.
    More weight this time I think? Well, he's not 3 anymore anyway :D

    The form on Irishracing is pretty poor for foreign races. Still, no need to
    subscribe, or sign up, so it'll do.

    Some great form this colt has on soft. The King Edward VII last year at Ascot stands out.

    All 3 of his runs this year have been on good, or better ground. All group 1 races too. The latest at Ascot, over the Arc trip, he came a poor 3rd of 3, but a line can be drawn through that as the ground was good to firm.

    If he runs he is a good each way bet if ye can get 4 places. I don't think he's ground dependent at all. His best run was on Good ground in the Juddmonte last year.

    In the King George you had the race being run in teeming rain on top of Good to Firm ground, so you had a fast run race thanks to Serpentine on the kind of loose Ground that Enable loved when she beat favourite Rhodendron in the Oaks. The race was 0.42 seconds slow, by the time of the following 12f race the ground had slowed to 6 seconds above standard.

    Obviously Japan didn't give his running in the King George and he was eased down when his chance was gone. O'Brien said that he was sore from a stone bruise the next day and they reckoned he had it before the race but it didn't show up until he ran on the fast ground in the King George.

    Genuine Good Ground with a bit of give in it would give him the best chance. He hasn't got the Soft Ground stamina of the likes of Enable.




    On Magical, she is incredibly consistent and tough but she has already flopped twice in the Arc. The first time was a bad draw and it was a bit of a scouting trip ( she was 40/1 and stayed on to finish within 5 1/4L of Enable ). The second time she stopped like a train 1 1/2f out after being upfront and taking over the running 2 1/2f out. Despite her having won over 12f in the mud at Ascot and her running Enable close over 12f, she's not a horse that's best suited to a stamina slogging battle over 12f in the mud. She's a full sister to Rhodendron who was best at a mile.

    Magical's best chance is if the ground is Good ( she came closest to toppling Enable in Breeders Cup on Good ground ) and there's a smallish field. It should be remembered that Found's form wasn't as good or consistent as Magical's when she won the Arc but the belief in her at Ballydoyle was huge and proven to be correct. The vibes from Ballydoyle will say a lot about Magical's chance. She has the form to run a peak Enable to 1/2 L which should be enough for a top 4 place.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Mishriff will not be supplemented for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with connections preferring a crack at the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot later in October.

    The Prix du Jockey Club winner, who had ranged between 10-1 and 12-1 for the Arc with most bookmakers, is now 5-2 joint-favourite with Paddy Power for the Champion Stakes following the news that he will not join stablemates Enable and Stradivarius in the Longchamp line-up.

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/no-arc-for-mishriff-as-connections-opt-for-champion-stakes-mission-at-ascot/448318



    That's one quietly fancied horse out of the field.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    Field reduced from 80 to 34.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Found that Enable run today to be no help at all in figuring out where she stands for the Arc.

    Before the race she looked to be in the best shape possible, she was full of herself, rippling with muscle and sinews in incredible shape. I thought that Gosden has her in spectacular shape for a trial race, if anything I was thinking that if she had more physical improvement to come from the race today then she'd be a monster at Longchamp.

    The run was satisfactory but I can't decide whether Gosden is being a genius who is going to produce her to absolute perfection in the Arc or whether she's going over the top. Thoughts?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    I thought she looked too fit today.
    It will be difficult to keep her at that level until the Arc.
    My plan is to lay Enable and Love if their prices are low.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,345 ✭✭✭Morgans


    tryfix wrote: »
    Found that Enable run today to be no help at all in figuring out where she stands for the Arc.

    Before the race she looked to be in the best shape possible, she was full of herself, rippling with muscle and sinews in incredible shape. I thought that Gosden has her in spectacular shape for a trial race, if anything I was thinking that if she had more physical improvement to come from the race today then she'd be a monster at Longchamp.

    The run was satisfactory but I can't decide whether Gosden is being a genius who is going to produce her to absolute perfection in the Arc or whether she's going over the top. Thoughts?

    Didn't like it. No real boost when the button was pressed today. To me, hasnt done anything this year to suggest she is better or the same horse as last year. If Love or Ghayyaith run to form I can't see her winning and in danger of being unplaced.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    I thought she looked too fit today.
    It will be difficult to keep her at that level until the Arc.
    My plan is to lay Enable and Love if their prices are low.


    Morgans wrote: »
    Didn't like it. No real boost when the button was pressed today. To me, hasnt done anything this year to suggest she is better or the same horse as last year. If Love or Ghayyaith run to form I can't see her winning and in danger of being unplaced.



    She did look overtrained today and a master trainer like Gosden was hardly going to make that mistake which makes it possible that she's proving difficult to control at the moment. Before the race Gosden said that she has to get exercised before the rest of the string are let out or else she'll cause havoc if she's not indulged as the Queen Bee in the stable.

    If it wasn't for Gosden's record in top races I'd be writing her off for the Arc on the basis that her head isn't right. Also today she was in cracking form until the delay to the start which seemed to get her wound up as she was circling while waiting to go in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭gazza1


    She ran a slightly quicker time today than when beating Crystal Ocean in the race 2 years ago, and faced nothing of that calibre today.
    I think Gosden will be very pleased with the run and what ever beats her on the day will win it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    gazza1 wrote: »
    She ran a slightly quicker time today than when beating Crystal Ocean in the race 2 years ago, and faced nothing of that calibre today.
    I think Gosden will be very pleased with the run and what ever beats her on the day will win it.

    Absolutely delighted I'd say. It was nothing more than a sharpener.

    . All we need is Love.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    Year fem,male fillies finish
    1970 2f,13m 3,12
    1971 2f,16m 2,14
    1972 4f,15m 1,2,4,19
    1973 8f,19m 2,5,12,15,16,19,22,27
    1974 4f,16m 1,2,5,18
    1975 6f,18m 3,5,12,15,18,23
    1976 6f,14m 1,7,11,14,15,17
    1977 6f,20m 4,7,14,21,24,26
    1978 2f,16m 2,3
    1979 4f,18m 1,5,11,21
    1980 6f,14m 1,4,7,10,11,15
    1981 9f,15m 1,3,8,9,10,15,18,20,22
    1982 6f,11m 1,3,4,9,14,15
    1983 10f,16m 1,2,3,4,6,8,10,13,19,21
    1984 8f,14m 2,3,9,11,12,14,15,20
    1985 5f,10m 3,5,9,11,12
    1986 4f,11m 3,6,8,15
    1987 3f,8m 3,7,10
    1988 5f,19m 9,10,11,13,17
    1989 5f,14m 2,4,5,9,10
    1990 5f,16m 9,10,11,16,17
    1991 5f,9m 2,6,10,11,13
    1992 6f,12m 2,5,8,9,13,16
    1993 10f,13m 1,4,5,10,12,18,20,21,22,23
    1994 6f,14m 5,7,13,16,18,20
    1995 4f,12m 5,9,10,16
    1996 2f,14m 5,9
    1997 6f,12m 3,8,11,12,13,15
    1998 2f,12m 2,13
    1999 5f,9m 4,7,8,10,13
    2000 3f,7m 2,3,7
    2001 4f,13m 2,8,11,12
    2002 3f,13m 5,6,11
    2003 0f,13m -
    2004 5f,14m 3,6,7,9,13
    2005 4f,11m 6,7,13,14
    2006 1f,7m 2
    2007 1f,11m 7
    2008 1f,15m 1
    2009 4f,15m 5,7,8,11
    2010 2f,17m 3,17
    2011 6f,10m 1,2,3,7,9,13
    2012 5f,13m 1,4,5,6,9
    2013 3f,14m 1,15,17
    2014 8f,12m 1,3,5,6,11,12,13,15

    If there is a trend it is more fillies take part in years after a filly has won.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    How many will O'Brien send?
    Love a certainty
    Magical and Japan likely
    Mogul possibly
    Serpentine maybe

    Only Love Magical and Mogul would even come into the conversation, even at that, as much as i adore magical, I see no reason she will turn tables on Enable
    Mogul is a puzzle. Could they book PCB or is he booked on a Frenchie?
    If they get him, honestly, at a double figure price he might be worth a place bet


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Will Andre Fabre's shock decision to run Persian King in the Arc result in an even more surprising win in the race? With odds of up to 33/1 ( according to oddschecker.) available now it could be a good idea to have a nibble before people cotton on to the idea that although his stamina is going to be stretched at beyond 10f he still has a good place chance.

    The master French trainer knows his stuff having won 8 Arcs. He spoiled the Enable party last year when Enable's treble hopes were blown out of the water by Waldgeist. On the negative side he most likely wouldn't even be running if Ghaiyyath wasn't swerving the race. Is he just a throw of the dice by Godolphin?

    His last run over 1mile was apparently his best one, he put in a stunning turn of foot to crush his rivals and that turn of foot move from the front is the type of move that winners of the Arc make to crack the field behind them.

    Will he stay? There's two ways of looking at that. As a 3yo he kept on over 10 1/2f in the French Derby behind Sottsass. I'd take that "kept on" as proof that he could stay 12f in a slowly run race, the problem in the Arc is that it is a Stayers Race particularly for the Colts who seem to have a harder job of stepping up in trip in it compared to the many females who have stretched their stamina to succeed in it.

    Waldgeist beat Enable through having a thorough stayers Dosage Index of 0.45.

    Dual Arc winner Enable has a DI of 0.60 which is also in Cup Horse territory.

    Found won with a DI of 0.62.

    Golden Horn had more of a 10-12f Dosage Index at 1. 38 but he had proven his stamina in the Epsom Derby.

    Dual Arc winner Treve had a DI of 1.40 but before her first Arc she had proven her stamina in the 12f G1 Prix Vermielle.


    Shock 2012 winner Solemia was another thorough stayer with a DI of 0.79

    German winner Danedream had a DI of 0.81 and was very stamina orientated on the sire side.

    2010 winner Workforce had a 10 to 12f DI of 1.00 but was more of a 12f and had proven his 12f stamina with a classy Epsom Derby win.


    7 out of the last 10 Arc winners had thorough stayers pedigrees the other 3 had 12f pedigrees and had proven themselves over 12f in Champion Class during their 3yo careers.

    All of that makes a win for Persian King highly unlikely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Bookies have it a 2 horse race
    Ground will be crucial
    If its soft Enable could well go off fav.... But.... Ol Rodge is going against the grain, its Mogul @10s for me, provided PCB is in board
    Unlike his brother, Mogul looks to me to be the real deal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    1 LOGICIAN
    2 PERSIAN KING
    3 ROYAL JULIUS
    4 TELECASTER
    5 WAY TO PARIS
    6 SOVEREIGN
    7 STRADIVARIUS
    8 JAPAN
    9 SOTTSASS
    10 BUCKHURST
    11 ENABLE
    12 DEIRDRE
    13 GOLD TRIP
    14 CHACHNAK
    15 IN SWOOP
    16 CROSSFIREHURRICANE
    17 MOGUL
    18 THAMES RIVER
    19 DEGRAVES
    20 RAABIHAH
    21 NEW YORK GIRL
    22 LOVE

    This is what is up on France Galop this morning. I think the max is 18 runners.
    Time to get out the pin, and make my pick.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,645 ✭✭✭paddy no 11


    Is the ground currently good given recent good weather?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭abarkie


    From racing post :


    https://www.racingpost.com/news/arc-countdown/heavy-rain-leaves-longchamp-very-soft-with-more-to-come-ahead-of-arc/452372

    A wet and wintry weekend in Paris has turned the ground at Longchamp to holding and caused a stir in the battle to be favourite, with Enable overhauling Love as market leader for Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

    The prospect of testing conditions for the Arc has increased significantly, with the going officially described as very soft (4.0 on the penetrometer) on Monday morning following 19mm of rain in the preceding 24 hours, all but ensuring that the track will be much deeper than on trials day just over a fortnight ago.

    First forfeit stage: find out which horses have been left in the Arc

    The outlook for the seven days leading up to Enable's second bid for an Arc hat-trick is unsettled, with the potential for more rainfall on Friday, while there is very little in the way of sunshine expected throughout the week.

    Very soft was also the going description 12 months ago when Enable was reeled in late on by Waldgeist on her first attempt to become the first three-time winner in the race's history.

    Very soft ground, a fast pace and the closing speed of Waldgeist all contributed to Enable's defeat in the 2019 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
    Very soft ground, a fast pace and the closing speed of Waldgeist all contributed to Enable's defeat in the 2019 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
    Edward Whitaker

    That defeat a year ago has not stopped most bookmakers changing favourites on Monday as the first forfeit stage passed, with 22 runners standing their ground prior to later forfeit stages this week and the supplementary stage on Wednesday.

    Enable has shortened from as much as 5-2 on Sunday night to 13-8 favourite with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook, with Love, who is not proven in testing conditions, pushed out to as big as 85-40.

    Monday's ground update and forfeit stage has also coinciding with Enable's stablemate Stradivarius shortening in the ante-post market too, with Bjorn Nielsen's superstar stayer cut into 8-1 (from 12) the day after the jockey booking of Olivier Peslier was confirmed.

    Coral have also made Enable their clear 7-4 favourite and spokesman David Stevens said: "With the Longchamp going already very soft, and Paris set for an unsettled week, Love may well not get the ground she needs to be at her very best on Sunday. As a result, Enable has regained favouritism from her younger rival, with her stablemate Stradivarius also popular with punters following the booking of Olivier Peslier."

    While very soft or even heavy conditions would be an unknown for a number of leading fancies, recent history suggests testing ground does lessen the impact of the draw.

    Of the 22 Arcs run at Longchamp since 1996, eight have been contested on ground described as soft or worse.

    During that period four horses have triumphed from a double-figure draw, with three of those – Sakhee in 2001, Dalakhani in 2003 and Treve in 2013 – coming on rain-softened ground.
    Grounds for concern?

    Testing conditions at Longchamp would present a test to Love, the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winner who had been the longtime ante-post favourite for the Arc prior to Monday's market movements.

    Love has won six of her ten races but has been beaten on all three of her starts where yielding or soft crept into the going description, albeit those defeats came in her two-year-old season.

    She has never tackled softer than yielding ground in her career and, speaking after her five-length win in the Yorkshire Oaks, Aidan O'Brien sounded a cautious note on the suitability of a softer surface for the outstanding three-year-old filly of her generation.

    Love: will conditions be an issue for the flying filly at Longchamp?
    Love: will conditions be an issue for the flying filly at Longchamp?
    Edward Whitaker

    O'Brien said after her win at York on ground official described as good: "We were very nervous about running her in the ground because any time she got beat last year was in slower ground.

    "The advantage of running her in that ground was we would find out if we could run her on that sort of surface in the Arc.

    "I'd be very worried if we get stinking ground in France because she's low-actioned. We now know she can get away with good to soft but I wouldn't be sure about heavy."


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 109 ✭✭BagheeraBlue


    its really strange to have the biggest race of the year on a bog every year


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    its really strange to have the biggest race of the year on a bog every year
    You don't get summer weather in October.
    Longchamp is clay soil, that gets very fast when dry, and very heavy when wet, and has imo greater contrast between fast and slow ground than almost every other track.
    The fields is almost always 18 runners, and the pace is hot.

    The fastest time at Longchamp in the last 47 races that I have on file was 2011 by Danedream in 2:24.49, the slowest 2:39.40 by Ivanjica in 1976.
    If you adjust the 2400 metres of the Arc upwards in distance slightly to compare to the 12f English and Irish Derby that 2:24.49 was faster (adjusted up to 2:25.33 for the distance) than the questionable record time 2:25.60 of St Jovite in the Irish Derby, and well in front of the 2:31.33 by Workforce in the 2010 English Derby on the much more difficult Epsom course.
    Dream Well in 1998 (10 runners) and Camelot in 2012 (5 runners) both took about 2:44 to run the Irish Derby. I think those times reflect slower pace in small fields as much as the heavy going.

    I am never surprised when favourites are overturned in the Arc at Longchamp.
    The great Pretty Polly (1901) won 22 of 24 races, one of the defeats at Longchamp. The Triple Crown winner Nijinsky won 11 of 13 races, one of the defeats at Longchamp.

    My order of analysis is
    1) will the going suit. Eliminate horses not suited, even if they are champions.
    2) if fast going then a low draw is needed, preferably 2 to 6. If soft or heavy the draw is much less important.
    3) now analyse the form.

    The going is not known until next weekend, and I don't have a proper bet before then.
    (I have a small bet on Logician at 48. He is unbeaten in six races, will get the distance, but ground and draw are unknown).


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    1 PERSIAN KING
    2 ROYAL JULIUS
    3 WAY TO PARIS
    4 JAPAN
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    7 SOTTSASS
    8 ENABLE
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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 109 ✭✭BagheeraBlue


    with the current ground enable will go off favourite , love is a superstar on proper ground but her action is a give away that she wont handle the ground


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    Closing
    PARTANT PROBABLE................... Mercredi 30 Septembre 2020 11h30 BOULOGNE
    ENGAGEMENT SUPPLEMENT.........Mercredi 30 Septembre 2020 11h30 ==
    ANNULATION PART PROB............Jeudi 1 Octobre 2020 10h30 ==
    MONTE.....................................Jeudi 1 Octobre 2020 12h30 ==


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