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Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

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Comments

  • #62
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,540 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Will there be much precipitation from this weather front,could there be spot flooding in Munster?


  • #63
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I'm more optimistic about this event than I was about today's. A few days of cold frosts to cool down the ground and get a nice cold layer established. Can't access forecast soundings now but I'd imagine they'll show a heavy snow or freezing rain setup. 850 hPa temperatures may not mean much in this case as we're not talking about convection, but obviously it'll have to be sub-zero.

    The first time I've gotten properly interested in a snow event since 2010.


  • #64
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    The Met.ie 5-day graphics charts showing -8c over the midlands-east on Monday evening!


  • #65
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Harmonie matches the weather warning but Kildare, Laois, Wicklow and Dublin start off as rain on it and slowly turn to snow.


  • #66
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    GFSOPUK06_75_25.png

    GFS Snow depths for Monday morning at 9am!


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  • #67
    Bejubby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Bejubby


    Villain wrote: »
    Harmonie matches the weather warning but Kildare, Laois, Wicklow and Dublin start off as rain on it and slowly turn to snow.

    Hi villain.
    Do you think the south east might get snow at this time??


  • #68
    PukkaStukka
    Registered Users Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Villain wrote: »
    Harmonie matches the weather warning but Kildare, Laois, Wicklow and Dublin start off as rain on it and slowly turn to snow.
    GFS viewed through NetWeather shows the same.


  • #69
    jonny_b
    Registered Users Posts: 645 ✭✭✭jonny_b


    Villain wrote: »
    Harmonie matches the weather warning but Kildare, Laois, Wicklow and Dublin start off as rain on it and slowly turn to snow.

    Rain for Carlow then too?


  • #70
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    ME has now given this Orange alert for most of the country:
    Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath and Meath
    Significant falls of snow are expected Saturday night and into Sunday. Accumulations of 4 to 8 cm could occur quite widely with greater totals possible. Drifting snow locally at times too with brisk winds. Slippery paths and treacherous roads also due to snow accumulation and ice.


  • #71
    kod87
    Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭kod87


    cherryghost wrote: »
    ME has now given this Orange alert for most of the country:

    I have a bad feeling I might be just a tad too far south, in which case tomorrow night is likely to be very depressing


    The only thing worse than getting no snow at all is people only a 50 km away getting tons of it


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  • #72
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Bejubby wrote: »
    Hi villain.
    Do you think the south east might get snow at this time??

    Not looking likely based on current details anyway, higher ground alright.


  • #73
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    What’s interesting here is the sliding nature of the low
    Normally lows shunt away cold
    This one bumps into it and party’s with it
    It’s in my opinion with the current northern hemisphere profile an early taste of what’s in store as winter goes on if things don’t change

    I’m expecting rain in Arklow which may turn to snow
    But Alpine conditions in many inland warning areas from the get go

    Last nights snow here is still covering the shady garden,a temp of 2.9c and do of -1c

    It all depends how far north the low goes


  • #74
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    kod87 wrote: »
    I have a bad feeling I might be just a tad too far south, in which case tomorrow night is likely to be very depressing


    The only thing worse than getting no snow at all is people only a 50 km away getting tons of it

    It will be hard for Munster people as well watching all the fun as we have rain again! Oh joy


  • #75
    kod87
    Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭kod87


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    It will be hard for Munster people as well watching all the fun as we have rain again! Oh joy

    well at least we are well used to it


  • #76
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    So we have an Orange level of snow/ice, but individually the potential wind and wind gusts aren't enough to get more than a yellow level each.

    By those criteria we wouldn't see a storm naming triggered. But ME do say "Consideration will also be given to rain and snow events", so I wonder whether Yellow Level wind + Orange level snow/ice warning = Storm Dylan.


  • #77
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    What’s interesting here is the sliding nature of the low
    Normally lows shunt away cold
    This one bumps into it and party’s with it
    It’s in my opinion with the current northern hemisphere profile an early taste of what’s in store as winter goes on if things don’t change

    I’m expecting rain in Arklow which may turn to snow
    But Alpine conditions in many inland warning areas from the get go

    Last nights snow here is still covering the shady garden,a temp of 2.9c and do of -1c

    It all depends how far north the low goes

    stupid question but do we want it going north or south? not familiar with this kind of set up.


  • #78
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    WRF performing quite well atm

    tempresult_dfe7.gif


    nmmuk-26-72-0_cxg6.png

    Could be seeing rainfall warnings too ( for Kerry no doubt ! :pac: )

    nmmuk-25-63-0_iui5.png


  • #79
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,727 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    I think the high ground of north Kilkenny will get a lot more snow.
    The snow from last night has remained, and we got a high today of 2.8C at 220m asl.
    My mother would say when snow was slow to go, that it was waiting for more, not scientific, but it did say it was cold enough...
    I see in Kilkenny city about 6 miles away the high reached has been 4.7C.
    The effect of altitude, and I think the Castlecomer plateau has a decent chance of getting a lot of snow.


  • #80
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,234 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    cherryghost wrote: »
    ME has now given this Orange alert for most of the country:

    Cromwell Thought Clare was part of Connacht.

    If it's good enough for Cromwell, it's good enough for me.

    (grasping at straws)


  • #81
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    stupid question but do we want it going north or south? not familiar with this kind of set up.

    A bit further South would be good
    Not much though

    Even though it’s not as cold,I’ve a jan 82 feeling in me shivers now about this one :D


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  • #82
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    A bit further South would be good
    Not much though

    Even though it’s not as cold,I’ve a jan 82 feeling in me shivers now about this one :D

    Why is Munster not getting anything? Is it due to the cold not having filtered South enough?


  • #83
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Sorry if I am posting this from an in my back yard point of view, but I'm purposely not getting too excited about this possible event - am very cautious with these types of setups. Reckon there will be zero to 1-2cm accumulations (at best) on Dublin coast and city centre, possibly a bit more in inland/higher ground areas - the wind being the problem. Above 200m in coastal districts & ground level 20 km in land should be a different ball game all together, definitely most promising charts for heavy snow with potential for 10+ cm accumulations since Jan/March 2013 and maybe 2010. Expecting heavy rain here turning to wet, non accumulating rain/snow later. With a bit of luck locations a bit further inland and with a bit of height as close as Casement could see rain turning to full on snow. Will be important to monitor the next few model runs, hopefully we will see a slight S shift to increase our chances of seeing something white.


  • #84
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    So I take it mid west is looking best for this event?


  • #85
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    In addition, I would keep an eye out on possible preciptation shadows on the West side of the Wicklow Mountains, sometimes this occurs in an E flow.


  • #86
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,104 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Not even going to let myself get excited for this one, as it WILL be rain for West Clare!


  • #87
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Danish Hirlam going for a right old sleety mix for me, but initially starting off as snow tomorrow night, so maybe some quality lamp post watching for a short time:

    world_image?city=2961099&mode=dag1_2

    New Moon



  • #88
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Not even going to let myself get excited for this one, as it WILL be rain for West Clare!

    And potentially a good deal of it (meteogram for Ennis from same model)

    world_image?city=2964405&mode=dag1_2

    New Moon



  • #89
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Why is Munster not getting anything? Is it due to the cold not having filtered South enough?

    I think Tipp and north Cork will see a fair bit at times
    The air over Munster has too much Atlantic maratime influence but as this system backs away Southeast there could be surprises
    It’s exceptionally hard to pin this down
    I mean all options are on the table including an entire rain event if the low goes too far north
    The further north,the less are invited to the party


  • #90
    thecretinhop
    Registered Users Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    So at the moment where if it comes of will get biggest hit and can it change at this stage?


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  • #91
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Looks like this is going to go down to the last tee in detail. Theres going to be some very happy people and theres going to be some extremely pissed off people.


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