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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Options
    #122
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models continue to show Sunday ( after a very windy spell on Sat) as extremely windy and storm conditions look increasingly likely. Very heavy rain Sat for a time and very heavy in places on Sunday.


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    #123
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Saturday is like the appetizer for the main event on Sunday. Fast moving active fronts crossing from W to E, currently looking windiest along coastal counties and the Southern half of the country, 80 to 110 km/h perhaps, heavy squally showers, heaviest rain along coastal counties in the NW, W, SW, S.

    geaVz7l.gif

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    tfZlyyk.png


    FufDXgK.png

    ox0VE0v.png


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    #124
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Sunday very consistent by the ECM. Widespread gusting over 100 to 110 km/h, up to 120 km/h in places and showing 130 kmh + in coastal areas. Looking like a country wide Orange warning at this stage. Fairly long duration storm especially in the W, NW and southern half of the country at this stage, remaining quite windy along Atlantic Coastal counties overnight Sunday into Monday.

    Heavy squally driving rain making conditions very difficult .

    2ZJrVzc.png

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    ojekEw7.png

    XvWsjKS.png


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    #125
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Pressure according to the latest run from the ECM, deepens rapidly on approach and looks to drop to about 951 hPa off the NW/N before rising slowly and introducing colder air mass as the day goes on and possibly leading to wintry precipitation towards night.

    NtcoJvE.png

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    aJwQyUL.png

    dgySYL7.png

    ECU1-96_tff8.GIF


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    #126
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Latest ECMWF model this evening shows the worst of the winds across, Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Fermanagh, Derry, Tyrone and Antrim gusting between 110km/hr to 130km/hr with some gusts in excess of 130km/hr across northwestern and northern coastal counties on Sunday.

    Big risks of coastal flooding also with big waves and high seas combined with high spring tides particularly around the Donegal Bay region and coastal areas of Donegal.


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    #127
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Coming in to Spring tides this weekend so coastal flooding an issue in parts perhaps.


    ZHWwV12.jpg?1


    anim_gto5.gif


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    #128
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Uther modles in fair agreement except the ARPEGE not as strong for Sunday, bit at the edge of its range perhaps.


    anim_zqf6.gif



    anim_qoa9.gif


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    #129
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    hKdjFbD.jpg

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    jZf2bVu.jpg


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    #130
    Santy2015
    Registered Users Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    hKdjFbD.jpg

    ghg0YCp.jpg

    jZf2bVu.jpg

    Not good


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    #131
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO similar to the ECM with track and depth

    GFS deeper but further N and not quite as strong as the ECM but close

    U96-21UK_tcv9.GIF

    96-515UK_ddv9.GIF


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    #132
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Storm Ciara also has good potential to develop a Sting jet. Western, northwestern and northern coastal counties of Ireland would be a high level orange warning and low level red warning based on the ECMWF.

    Coastal waters would also probably see a red marine warning issued going on the latest ECMWF and UKMO.

    Don't be surprised to see a status orange nationwide warning issued for Ireland for Sunday and a possible Amber for Northern Ireland.


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    #133
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    GFS 18z has backed off a bit on the severity of the wind.


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    #134
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    typhoony wrote: »
    GFS 18z has backed off a bit on the severity of the wind.




    while the ICON has upgraded 100 -150kmh gusts.


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    #135
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    They are some tasty looking charts. Keep them coming!


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    #136
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    squarecircles wrote: »
    while the ICON has upgraded 100 -150kmh gusts.

    The Icon is a bit more of a scary run, let's hope they are not right.

    iconeu_uk1-11-87-0.png?05-22

    The GFS continues to downgrade the storm, still looks very windy tho with speeds up to 100 or 110km/h.

    84-289UK.GIF?05-18


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    #137
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I think the GFS 18Z might bean outlier, it has brought the track of the storm much further N than the others on this run.


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    #138
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,877 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It's all very mish mash but 120kph seems the minimum for Sunday and with driving rain there will be fallen branches and some power outages as well as the high seas of course


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    #139
    Irish Steve
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    Meteorite58 wrote: »

    jZf2bVu.jpg

    If ever there was a beast from the east, it's this image. Looks so much like a wolf about to close it's mouth on an unsuspecting victim.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



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    #140
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Could be worth opening up a dedicated thread at this stage just to keep any discussion on Storm Ciara in tidy place. I'll leave that to 'the mods' to decide, but a little prompting never hurt anyone.

    New Moon



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    #141
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Could be worth opening up a dedicated thread at this stage just to keep any discussion on Storm Ciara in tidy place. I'll leave that to 'the mods' to decide, but a little prompting never hurt anyone.

    Thanks Oneric 3, I have left a message earlier for MT to see if he would like to kick it off.


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    #142
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    All of the ensemble (eps) options on tonight's run, which are centered around the mean. Solid agreement on a northwards track, just more a question now as to how far north.

    PYzDjw4.jpg

    New Moon



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    #143
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Several threads need to be opened for both storms and snow. I see Met Eireann had 14C down for Monday on their main tv forecast. What's that about?
    MT has 7 to 9 for early next week with no mention of snow. Am I looking at different charts? Because if the charts are right it won't be 14C or 9 C either!


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    #144
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The OOZ ECM did have good parameters for snow on Monday and into Tuesday. I haven't checked the 12Z.

    700-1000 thickness down near the 282 dam mark, very strong westerly wind minimising modification over the ocean. 500 hPa temps near -40 °C giving good CAPE, the showers making it right across to the east.


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    #145
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    squarecircles wrote: »
    while the ICON has upgraded 100 -150kmh gusts.

    Backed off again this morning also ECM showing it less severe for sunday


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    #146
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    In terms of snow potential, my area of interest, good model consensus right now that uppers will be -6 and below from Monday evening to Wednesday lunch time. 0z GFS shows some seriously cold air, given it is Atlantic sourced, by Tuesday morning...

    20021106_0600.gif

    Alas GFS snow accumulation charts don't show much promise...

    20021112_0600.gif

    6z's just rolling out now


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    #147
    Bogwoppit
    Registered Users Posts: 2,554 ✭✭✭Bogwoppit


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »

    Alas GFS snow accumulation charts don't show much promise...

    20021112_0600.gif

    6z's just rolling out now

    Unless, like me, you’re driving through the Scottish highlands next week for work!


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    #148
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    the sweetspot for snow could be late Monday evening into the early hours of Tuesday, wind should keep going all night pushing those snow showers into the west


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    #149
    Santy2015
    Registered Users Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    Are we looking at yellow warnings going forward for wind and possible snow Monday evening Tuesday?


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    #150
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Santy2015 wrote: »
    Are we looking at yellow warnings going forward for wind and possible snow Monday evening Tuesday?

    doubt we'll see any snow and ice warnings until Monday morning.


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    #151
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,816 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has brought the LP further North on the latest two runs showing windy in the SW, S, one to watch

    ET4KRRL.png


    ECU1-120_slb5.GIF


    cb9qZdX.png


This discussion has been closed.
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