Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

HighLine · 09-01-2019 12:08am

Mortelaro wrote: »

I ventured outside
Good frost has formed
Arklow bypass tII has an air temp of oc at 1030pm
We're certainly the coldest tonight
Even Tullow is 7c :pac:

That's some difference alright. My external temp here in Wicklow is 7.7C.
And internal is a toasty 19.5C

YanSno · 09-01-2019 12:11am

Yes you are right westerly / North westerly for the next 10 days anyway. last week of January into February has potential for cold weather and that's deep FI

highdef · 09-01-2019 12:12am

HighLine wrote: »

That's some difference alright. My external temp here in Wicklow is 7.7C.
And internal is a toasty 19.5C

19.5c......that's like an ice box to me!

Mortelaro · 09-01-2019 12:13am

HighLine wrote: »

That's some difference alright. My external temp here in Wicklow is 7.7C.
And internal is a toasty 19.5C

Yeah it started to feel very cold when it got dark here under clear sky
Its a bit cloudier out there now and back up to 3c
The clear pocket is filling so if that continues,it'll climb to what you have

Gonzo · 09-01-2019 12:14am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

A bit confused reading through all the optimistic posts today.. the models are as dull and uninteresting as ever tonight, high pressure and slack westerlies throughout. Were the morning runs better?

the excitement from today is at least 2 weeks away so well off in FI, untill then mostly Atlantic conditions once we lose the high pressure heading into next week.

gabeeg · 09-01-2019 12:15am

I disagree.

This is a SSW we're talking about. When the down-welling occurs you can often watch it roll in from deep FI.

The details will flux. We could get unlucky, but there's huge potential now.

Donegal Storm · 09-01-2019 12:52am

With respect I think there's too much being put on the SSW, its become a buzz term these past few years when in reality its just one small factor in an extremely chaotic atmosphere.

Looking even to the far reaches of FI there's a deep PV lobe plonked over eastern Canada which generally only ever means one thing for us

Villain · 09-01-2019 10:13am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

With respect I think there's too much being put on the SSW, its become a buzz term these past few years when in reality its just one small factor in an extremely chaotic atmosphere.

Looking even to the far reaches of FI there's a deep PV lobe plonked over eastern Canada which generally only ever means one thing for us

While it might be a buzz word for attention I certainly wouldn’t say it is a small factor, now the impacts of it may not be huge but the potential impacts are certainly not small.

Add in the MJO phase 7 into 8 and maybe back into 7 along with very negative AO and NAO neutral before posisbly heading negative again and you have the signals for proper blocking.

Of course whether that delivers us the cold and snow remains the question, the longer range models certainly seem to suggest the chances are good and while models aren’t showing a consistent solution to deliver us cool they are moving the building blocks in the right direction.

The main issue with an SSW for me is that people expect the impacts to be clear and quick when the exact opposite is the case.

Gaoth Laidir · 09-01-2019 11:43am

Villain wrote: »

While it might be a buzz word for attention I certainly wouldn’t say it is a small factor, now the impacts of it may not be huge but the potential impacts are certainly not small.

Add in the MJO phase 7 into 8 and maybe back into 7 along with very negative AO and NAO neutral before posisbly heading negative again and you have the signals for proper blocking.

Of course whether that delivers us the cold and snow remains the question, the longer range models certainly seem to suggest the chances are good and while models aren’t showing a consistent solution to deliver us cool they are moving the building blocks in the right direction.

The main issue with an SSW for me is that people expect the impacts to be clear and quick when the exact opposite is the case.

I don't see where these long range models are suggesting good chances. The ECM HRES and ENS both show a positive NAO out at 10-16 days, with not much in the setup to suggest the Greenland blocking so many are hoping for about to set up. The amount of wishcasting that goes on is amazing.

HRES

ENS

ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean_2019010900_360.png

Villain · 09-01-2019 12:00pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I don't see where these long range models are suggesting good chances. The ECM HRES and ENS both show a positive NAO out at 10-16 days, with not much in the setup to suggest the Greenland blocking so many are hoping for about to set up. The amount of wishcasting that goes on is amazing.

I think the wishcasting is equally as bad as those saying winter is over and cold won't happen.

I haven't said anything will happen for sure in fact I have been continuously telling people that SSW does not equal certain cold here.

The long range models for ECMWF are available at http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

Gaoth Laidir · 09-01-2019 12:07pm

Villain wrote: »

I think the wishcasting is equally as bad as those saying winter is over and cold won't happen.

I haven't said anything will happen for sure in fact I have been continuously telling people that SSW does not equal certain cold here.

The long range models for ECMWF are available at http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

Totally agree that writing winter off now is madness. We'll see what evolves, but I'm not optimistic on this time around based on current the indications.

Cork Boy 53 · 09-01-2019 1:20pm

Strange bright yellow object low in the sky today. I think it might be the sun but it has been so long since I last saw it that I could be mistaken.

Gonzo · 09-01-2019 1:50pm

GFS is back to showing a dominant Atlantic towards the end of January with only a brief northerly wind around the 21st of January.

Still most other models are hinting at a cooling trend into the last week of January.

MidMan25 · 09-01-2019 2:06pm

There's some difference between MTs thoughts in today's forecast and Gaoith Laidir's posts above.

KingdomRushed · 09-01-2019 2:29pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

With respect I think there's too much being put on the SSW, its become a buzz term these past few years when in reality its just one small factor in an extremely chaotic atmosphere.

Looking even to the far reaches of FI there's a deep PV lobe plonked over eastern Canada which generally only ever means one thing for us

I’m in total agreement. The effects of this SSW are very different to what occurred at end of February. The models are all over the shop and other factors are playing a role, such as you say if there is deep cold and low pressure in that NW sector it fuels the jet-stream to do its thing which the SSW can fight against alright but doesn’t necessarily kill it dead.

All sorts of factors in the troposphere and stratosphere control the weather for this part of the world, and unfortunately that big warm ocean to our west is always gonna be there.

Personally I expect cold NW weather end of month with hill snow and slush across the western parts of Ireland and higher ground. Hard frosts where winds abate and skies clear.

I do not see anything like a ‘beast from the east’ emerging yet from the murk.

It has been the strangest winter ever with regards the near certainty many weather watchers, particularly on a certain UK site, have put on extreme cold transpiring. Because of this, the same people are cherry picking model output due to bias more than ever before. This is to the detriment of the more balanced view that should be in place

Sycamore Tree · 09-01-2019 2:37pm

MidMan25 wrote: »

There's some difference between MTs thoughts in today's forecast and Gaoith Laidir's posts above.

So what? At this point, either could be right.

MidMan25 · 09-01-2019 2:41pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

So what? At this point, either could be right.

What's your point? I didn't propose either was right or wrong.

Gonzo · 09-01-2019 2:58pm

I think the best approach is to just keep level headed, not to lose the plot when a day of Atlantic muck charts happens and also not to lose the run of yourself when your staring at December 2010 beating charts. We are still very far from anything happening and nothing may happen at all.

I feel we are still no closer to knowing what will happen end of January, beginning of February than we were before Christmas. We are still currently stuck in this mostly cloudy high pressure and most likely we will get a cooler Atlantic driven mid January period, after that nobody really knows.

sryanbruen · 09-01-2019 3:00pm

Nice day again today in Dublin (though not as nice as yesterday). There was more blue skies around earlier.

https://twitter.com/snowbiewx/status/1082999723735371776?s=21

kerrycork13 · 09-01-2019 3:04pm

One of the coldest spells of weather in the last 100 years happened a few weeks before a ssw occurred in Britain, a good few years back so it’s influence doesn’t massively increase the chances but if other factors are in place it can obviously help.

Mortelaro · 09-01-2019 3:17pm

FI is FI regardless of the strat effect
More and more options for cold are appearing in ensembles though as expected but that doesn't mean op runs won't churn out milder options too

Model watching is some drug for what it makes people post
Wait another week and see what's evolving
I'm placing my faith anyway in Noaa's 500mb anomalies and that of the ECM both of which have mid Atlantic blocks and pressure building towards Iceland near the crucial time late month
The direction of flow is self evident
So let's wait and see because obviously the likes of those are indicative but subject to chaos theory

Villain · 09-01-2019 3:47pm

The latest AO and NAO forecasts below, (live images so will update).

The AO is forecast to go Negative again at the end of the month and NAO is heading down to neutral again, the forecasts have been changing a lot towards the end of the forecast period though in recent days so something to keep an eye on.

ao.sprd2.gif

Mortelaro · 09-01-2019 3:49pm

Latest update from the UK met office seems consistent (to me) with a meandering high out in the Atlantic somewhere dragging in at times (mainlining) cold from the best direct source North/northeast
But interspersed with some less cold air depending on the tilt of a high
Speculative still but they are persistent with this outlook and parsing it,it's similar to any outlook language used prior to many a severe spell tbh that also affected Ireland if you get me?

but from late next week onwards there is a greater chance of cold spells giving more widespread frosts and an enhanced risk of snow, especially in the north and east.

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jan 2019 to Thursday 7 Feb 2019:
During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold conditions being established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frost, especially in the north. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and even if they do occur, they will probably still be interspersed with some milder, wetter and windier interludes, especially for the south.

Updated: 13:05 on Wed 9 Jan 2019 GMT

BLIZZARD7 · 09-01-2019 4:04pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

These are just my thoughts on how the winter will pan out - I will probably be very much off the mark if the Stratosphere doesn't play ball.

Atlantic driven weather until mid December before high pressure takes control, gradually cooling off and dry settled weather setting in- then our First notable cold blast to hit in the last week to 10 days of December as wave activity in the strat really starts throwing punches- a displaced vortex present.
A slight relaxing of the cold into early Jauary before a Stratospheric warming led and more intense cold spell grips the country from Mid-ish January. Gradually phasing out from mid february as spring starts to emerge.

As a precursor to the cold spell in Jan I'm expecting a very deep cold pool to move into the near continent around new year and for it to eventually spill our direction by mid Jan.

The combination of very low solar activity , the current enso state as well as the already and soon to be more distressed vortex also almost all the long range models indicating cold leads me to this conclusion. December and Feb to be months of two contrasting halfs. January to be the coldest month.

I will revise this in a few weeks if the Strat events don't appear to be unfolding as currently indicated.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1069573352841465856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1069573352841465856&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fjhomenuk%2Fstatus%2F1069573352841465856

Haven't had much time lately to update on this -

Anyway the strat has half played ball so far, a SSW occured but we haven't seen a QTR due to the reversed zonal winds failing to propagate into the troposphere with any haste. This does look to be happening soon but not as quick as I thought it would. My outlook for Late December/ up to now quite far off the mark for Ireland.

The high pressure did build over the country later In December but no cold spell transpired, quite the opposite as we ended up under the Atlantic side = a mild cloudy high, not a cold frosty one.

My deep cold pool is currently still developing nicely over the continent, this is very good to see as it means we won't have to wait long for a cold flow if and when we drag in an easterly wind.

The models don't seem to have a grasp on the situation just yet, we are getting closer though- I suspect it will be the last week to 10 days of Jan when winter finally decides to arrive in Ireland. UK met office outlook looking more positive in the past 48 hours also.

It's far from a done deal at this stage but hats off to @Syanbruen, your back loaded winter not kicking in until later January is looking like a good bet at this stage.

If we do see a favourable cold pattern setup in the coming weeks as a result of the SSW, I don't see anything that will shift it anytime soon after- A cold early spring a strong possibility.

nacho libre · 09-01-2019 4:13pm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

merging yet from the murk.

It has been the strangest winter ever with regards the near certainty many weather watchers, particularly on a certain UK site, have put on extreme cold transpiring. Because of this, the same people are cherry picking model output due to bias more than ever before. This is to the detriment of the more balanced view that should be in place

Who has not had a balanced view here?
At the moment it's fair to say some model output offers some encouragement of a mid atlantic block developing. Along with the UK Met Office long range outlook of it turning colder in the last week of January into February.

I don't recall anyone here saying we were certain to get a cold spell because of the SSW, as has been repeatedly said it increases our chances of getting a potent cold spell, but does not guarantee one due to the difficulty in forecasting the impacts on the troposphere- for example a daughter vortice ends up in the wrong place.

gabeeg · 09-01-2019 4:32pm

Icon suggesting a Northerly around the 18th?

RobertKK · 09-01-2019 4:36pm

https://twitter.com/_norwichweather/status/1082955267086733312?s=21

Gonzo · 09-01-2019 4:57pm

We're almost at the half way point in Winter and not a sniff of winter weather here so far. It would be very unusual even for Ireland to finish the Winter on 28th February with an almost unbroken run of mild close to double figure temperatures with little or no frost, ice or snow.

Our Seasons usually even themselves out, it is looking very likely that the second half of this winter will be colder than what we've experienced so far.

I have this nasty feeling that 'winter' will once again run into March and possibly beyond.

I've had a look to see how mild my local area has been since December 1st. The coolest daytime temperature of the winter so far has been January 4th where temperatures reached 6C.

Only 6 days so far this winter have recorded a daytime temperature of less than 8C. The other 30 days of winter including today have recorded daytime temperatures of between 8C and 13C with most of them days reaching at least 10C.

The coldest night of the winter so far is 4th December where my local area reached 1C. I have yet to see a 0C this Winter, which is quite remarkable so no freezing has occurred in this area yet this winter. It could be another two weeks before the mercury finally dips to 0C.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 09-01-2019 5:28pm

Gonzo wrote: »

We're almost at the half way point in Winter and not a sniff of winter weather here so far. It would be very unusual even for Ireland to finish the Winter on 28th February with an almost unbroken run of mild close to double figure temperatures with little or no frost, ice or snow.

Our Seasons usually even themselves out, it is looking very likely that the second half of this winter will be colder than what we've experienced so far.

I have this nasty feeling that 'winter' will once again run into March and possibly beyond.

I've had a look to see how mild my local area has been since December 1st. The coolest daytime temperature of the winter so far has been January 4th where temperatures reached 6C.

Only 6 days so far this winter have recorded a daytime temperature of less than 8C. The other 30 days of winter including today have recorded daytime temperatures of between 8C and 13C with most of them days reaching at least 10C.

The coldest night of the winter so far is 4th December where my local area reached 1C. I have yet to see a 0C this Winter, which is quite remarkable so no freezing has occurred in this area yet this winter. It could be another two weeks before the mercury finally dips to 0C.

Did you find Autumn had lower lows in your area?

Liffey4A · 09-01-2019 5:29pm

Was there some discussion last year about how our "seasons" "have been about a month behind over the last few years?

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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