Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones of 2018

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

...POWERFUL LANE CONTINUING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII AND MAY BE A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...13.6N 149.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

WTPA32 PHFO 220553
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...LANE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...14.5N 154.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
Air Force Reserve aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude
154.1 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from
Thursday through Saturday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now
a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is
forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the
Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into
the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell

WTPA42 PHFO 232109
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning,
even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed
by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite
imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a
relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four
centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and
SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for
this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative.

This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
in better agreement with the ECMWF.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated
terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 157.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

LOCATION...19.1N 129.7W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES