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AUTUMN WEATHER 2013

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Gurteen reporting an air temp of 2.0C at 0700hrs
    Athenry, Claremorris, Casement and Dunsany all at 3.0C


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    After months of benign weather it's looking like the Atlantic is going to start to belch across us from about mid next week. Perfectly normal. But I already see the 'winter is over, oh god long fetch south westerly' brigade get nervous on net weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Reurmett.gif
    interesting fohn effect in north Iceland on the "other side" of the high.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Heatwave on the way! Well 18 maybe 20c anyway! Will this summer never end? :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    mike65 wrote: »
    Heatwave on the way! Well 18 maybe 20c anyway! Will this summer never end? :p

    What? who said that? I had my first taste of frost this morning I don't want to go back.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Next Tuesday/Wednesday we'll have sub topical air pushing up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    mike65 wrote: »
    Next Tuesday/Wednesday we'll have sub topical air pushing up.

    Thanks for that. I just turned the heat on this evening. I thought it would be on for the winter now. :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,315 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    mike65 wrote: »
    Next Tuesday/Wednesday we'll have sub topical air pushing up.

    I hope your right, Im seeding a new lawn. I got some of it done 2 weeks ago and the grass is already growing well due to the extended summer.
    But Im worried how any new seed this weekend would grow since its getting so cold.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    mike65 wrote: »
    Next Tuesday/Wednesday we'll have sub topical air pushing up.

    If we see 20C next week I will eat my shoes.

    But watch out for the Atlantic though, the wind and rain is finally going to arrive, I can easily see a very wet end to October going into November.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    If we see 20C next week I will eat my shoes.

    But watch out for the Atlantic though, the wind and rain is finally going to arrive, I can easily see a very wet end to October going into November.

    20? I don't think so. 16, maybe 17 max.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Certainly a change in the offing now, toward the first true spell of mobile Atlantic depressions in many months. Wind, rain, mild will be what we can expect for the latter half of October, with conditions getting ever more vigorous and unsettled the further into FI we look, FI it may be, but the weather is looking active as all hell. Umbrella shredding stuff, usually we would have experienced a whole summer of it ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    Certainly a change in the offing now, toward the first true spell of mobile Atlantic depressions in many months. Wind, rain, mild will be what we can expect for the latter half of October, with conditions getting ever more vigorous and unsettled the further into FI we look, FI it may be, but the weather is looking active as all hell. Umbrella shredding stuff, usually we would have experienced a whole summer of it ;)

    Hate the rain but I'll take that over a useless cold autumn. Saves on heating bills and there's always the chance of a proper windstorm with that kind of pattern.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    mike65 wrote: »
    Heatwave on the way! Well 18 maybe 20c anyway! Will this summer never end? :p
    fax120s.gif?14-12
    You never know? A 20 is not out of the question in the Dublin area but only if there are long sunny spells. It looks a very cloudy chart but you never know with a southerly in the lee of the Wicklow Mts?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    There's no autumn FI thread, but had to post this from the ensembles. What a doozy.

    QDZ8LIU.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    While rare, we can certainly achieve 20C+ in the second half of October.
    October 1995 managed it on the 31st, with maxima of 15 to 20C.
    http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-1995-Oct.pdf


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    There's no autumn FI thread, but had to post this from the ensembles. What a doozy.

    QDZ8LIU.png

    So ruin halloween for the kids then. More junk food for me. :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    I hope its a ripper low for Halloween as well!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Lucreto wrote: »
    So ruin halloween for the kids then. More junk food for me. :pac:

    Nah it won't happen, it's just an extreme outlier ensemble member. It's the FI of FI.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,305 ✭✭✭April O Neill


    God bless this wonderfully mild Autumn we've having. Haven't needed heating yet and should be able to do without it for a while yet! Just got our leccy bill for the last two months - 72 Euro. Fúck, yeah! :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    18c forecast for tomorrow, I would have been happy with that in July during the summers between 07 and 12!
    Can we go a degree or two higher in the Dublin micro climate? It depends on the length of any sunny spells.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Well it looks like chances of early cold are receding by the minute. The latest model outputs are a horror show, hinting at atlantic sourced southwesterlies penetrating deep into northern and eastern latitudes, and by deep and northern I'm talking Scandanavia and Russia. Massive changes afoot, all pointing toward zonal central


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    zonal central

    Excuse my ignorance! :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Excuse my ignorance! :o

    Wet n windy, aka your typical Irish autumn.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    This evening's ECM is showing southerly sourced 8C upper air temperatures pluming right up through Norway/Finland/Sweden. Very mild anomaly for northern latitudes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    How about a Halloween Heatwave? :p

    Q39BRg8.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    14 degrees, at midnight, at Mace Head right at the Atlantic, in the middle of October.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    Well it looks like chances of early cold are receding by the minute. The latest model outputs are a horror show, hinting at atlantic sourced southwesterlies penetrating deep into northern and eastern latitudes, and by deep and northern I'm talking Scandanavia and Russia. Massive changes afoot, all pointing toward zonal central

    2 weeks ago we were barely above freezing, -8 at night. Last Sunday it reached 23.6c. The forecast is the same for this weekend and early next week for temps between 19-22c. This south east Poland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    Well it looks like chances of early cold are receding by the minute. The latest model outputs are a horror show, hinting at atlantic sourced southwesterlies penetrating deep into northern and eastern latitudes, and by deep and northern I'm talking Scandanavia and Russia. Massive changes afoot, all pointing toward zonal central

    :( Another boring mild winter ahead? Hopefully not


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    leahyl wrote: »
    :( Another boring mild winter ahead? Hopefully not

    By 'early cold' I'm referring to the possibility of a cold snap for Halloween - through November. That looked more possible a week ago. Now looks unlikely. I do get the impression that the late November beginning to the 2010 cold snap gave people unrealistic expectations regarding winter synoptics. Typically real cold rarely gets going before Christmas. Zonal weather in November does not rule out a significant cold snap in January. Winter is a long season and January and February are the months that have the most potential to deliver good snowfall. Don't get caught up in the hype and just be patient what will be will be.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Looks like another wet day tomorrow:(

    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS YELLOW

    Rainfall Warning for Munster and Leinster

    Wet and windy on Friday with spells of heavy rain through the day, highest totals over east and south Leinster and south Munster. Rainfall of 25 to 50 mm ,highest in east and southeast.
    Issued:
    Thursday 17 October 2013 13:00
    Valid:
    Friday 18 October 2013 06:00 to Saturday 19 October 2013 03:00


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