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Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    redsunset wrote: »
    But they did give a warning,here is a still of Jean mention RISK OF VERY STRONG WINDS with warning triangle.

    173717.JPG

    Just seen her latest forecast, they have scrapped the triangle and she just said stormy with some rain. :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 388 ✭✭xi


    Pangea wrote: »
    Just seen her latest forecast, they have scrapped the triangle and she just said stormy with some rain. :rolleyes:

    Isn't Stormy worse than Strong?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,835 ✭✭✭pauldry


    whats with the road signs on weather?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    HAHA looks like the not so regulars are pouring back in on the sound of the word "storm" haaha :D.... *Opens the gate to the roller-coaster * :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭kkontour


    Did you notice the Monday chart flashed up for a second, but Jean didn't comment on it. It had the low centred NNW of Donegal.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    173732.png


    Out comes my Warning triangle then.
    Watch out for trees that are dangerously close to cause harm if they do indeed decide to topple.


    katia-468_905512a.gif

    And a piece from the US

    The National Hurricane Centre is predicting a close escape for the US as they forecast a new path for Hurricane Katia, which is now on a direct course towards the UK.

    The US-based weather experts predict the massive storm will swing east across the Atlantic Ocean and its destructive track will now cross Scotland on Monday.

    Forecasters are hopeful the power of Hurricane Katia will diminish and may be downgraded to a tropical storm with sustained winds of up to 73mph by the time it hits the UK.

    Hurricane Katia is currently approaching Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 80mph. The core of the Category One storm will weaken as it swings east before reaching the US on Thursday.

    Forecasters are warning of life-threatening rip currents and surf conditions along the US East Coast and Bermuda in the next few days.

    The eye of the storm is predicted to miss the coast of Northern Ireland but will cross Scotland overnight Sunday and into Monday morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    All channels are hedging their bets on this one. BBC skimmed past it in 2secs but dud say they would ' keep us updated.' I think I heard that phrase on at least 3 channels.
    I guess the rarity of Katia and it's potential has them hitting the 'let's not look like fools' button big time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    I'm playing golf in Enniscrone in sligo on Tuesday, should be some big waves clipping the edge of the greens :D
    http://magicseaweed.com/Enniscrone-Surf-Report/829/

    I feel some storm chasing is in order,
    Might just head up on Monday and see the show :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    xi wrote: »
    Isn't Stormy worse than Strong?

    Sorry I meant to say she said it would bring 'Strong Winds'
    Which is a downgrade from what she said earlier 'Very Strong'.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    redsunset wrote: »
    The eye of the storm is predicted to miss the coast of Northern Ireland but will cross Scotland overnight Sunday and into Monday morning.

    But if the eye did come across The Northern Half of the Country that would mean less wind speeds for the North wouldn't it and more wind speeds for the southern half.
    M.T. said away from the eye is stronger I think.
    So at the moment is the projected path the optimum location for strong winds for the NW? i.e. a comfortable distance from the eye.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Pangea wrote: »
    But if the eye did come across The Northern Half of the Country that would mean less wind speeds for the North wouldn't it and more wind speeds for the southern half.
    M.T. said away from the eye is stronger I think.
    So at the moment is the projected path the optimum location for strong winds for the NW? i.e. a comfortable distance from the eye.

    I actually think you will get windy but nothing that your used to already.Further south over land winds could really pick up but tis all guess work at the moment till she actually enters Jetstream and we get a better handle on her position to North West.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    HAHA looks like the not so regulars are pouring back in on the sound of the word "storm" haaha :D.... *Opens the gate to the roller-coaster * :)

    Dam.. I've been spotted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    http://twitpic.com/6hyqni

    View from space


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The 18z is coming out tediously slowly.

    Low is accelerated in its motion slightly at T60hrs.

    Ex-tropical Katia is a sub 965mb storm in our southwest approaches Sunday AM.

    Rtavn601.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Continued signs Katia will take a more southerly route than expected a few days ago.

    Holding strength at just 965mb at 72hrs racing into the southwest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    At 84 hours 18z GFS shows Ex-Katia re-intensify as it absorbs the mature low to the north.

    Throwing intense winds into much of Ireland.

    Rtavn841.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Continued signs Katia will take a more southerly route than expected a few days ago.

    Holding strength at just 965mb at 72hrs racing into the southwest.

    Is this storm just strong winds or does it involve rain also?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    leahyl wrote: »
    Is this storm just strong winds or does it involve rain also?

    The main swathe of rain is expected to be nearer the central core of the storm. This initially was expected to be north of Ireland but now it looks like it will impact northern areas. Any further movement of the centre of storm south will result in more precipitation for the whole country.

    The next few days will be very interesting. The morning model output will be extremely important.

    A couple of miles south and abit more intense and you have a dangerous ex-hurricane impacting Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,553 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I did mention to a friend in a chat section of one forum that it wouldn't surprise me if winter came a bit earlier than last year, but I'm not convinced it will dig in for a long, furious assault. It may just come and go early. That was my sketchy first thoughts about it, but I prefer to make winter forecasts in October when we have more guidance on trends in the subarctic and around the hemisphere.

    hmm... it's interesting your leaning towards an even earlier start to Winter this year, considering the long term CFS projections last April suggested the second half of October could be well below average temperature wise. Although obviously it would be foolish to give it too much credence, it certainly will be interesting to see how October pans out.

    anyway back to the storm:

    ukwind.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    leahyl wrote: »
    Is this storm just strong winds or does it involve rain also?

    The main swathe of rain is expected to be nearer the central core of the storm. This initially was expected to be north of Ireland but now it looks like it will impact northern areas. Any further movement of the centre of storm south will result in more precipitation for the whole country.

    The next few days will be very interesting. The morning model output will be extremely important.

    A couple of miles south and abit more intense and you have a dangerous ex-hurricane impacting Ireland.

    Wowza! Thanks for that info - an interesting few days ahead then! As you said it already seems to be goin further south so we might (I stress the word 'might' obv!) get a lashing down here but I know it could change course very quickly


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    hahahaha .. Mrs Carey Was very strong at putting across that it wont be an ACTUAL hurricane that we could be getting! ha ..." Though we could get some high winds and rain"


    EDIT: Hahaha the 5 day summary had a 65 wind marker in the irish sea for monday!! ... surely thats in kph?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Yeah Noticed she raised her voice when she said 'but it will have weakened CONSIDERABLY by the time it reaches Ireland' lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Pangea wrote: »
    Yeah Noticed she raised her voice when she said 'but it will have weakened CONSIDERABLY by the time it reaches Ireland' lol

    YE EXACTLY! ha

    Now wouldnt she be quite embarrassed if it turned out to be a Michael FIsh moment hahahaha...

    Should of kept the big triangle up if i was her JUST incase ha

    :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,354 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    people should start taking in the trampolines i guess. shame i wont be in achill this weekend to see some high winds and storm surge.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    irishgeo wrote: »
    people should start taking in the trampolines i guess. shame i wont be in achill this weekend to see some high winds and storm surge.

    Me too! :(... IM working nights this weekend , only be off monday morning at 7 :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    irishgeo wrote: »
    people should start taking in the trampolines i guess.


    Thats exactly what i was thinking i will do tomorrow. It didn't get much use anyway.
    Guess we'll have to wait to see how things will develop.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Interesting developments overnight (for me) with the potential more southerly track of the storm. When i left Ireland last week i had a feeling i would miss something big and its looking like i could be right :( Will be very interested to see what the next runs have in store.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    With forecasts damping down a continuous gust of 73mph? Purposely below the cat 1 Hurricane threshold :P 100 km/h + is nothing to be sniffed at so anywhere even remotely close to that could have damaging implications.


    Just for the lulz, the strongest gust ever recorded was 200km/h in County Down back in 1974:
    Rrea00119740111.gif
    In more recent times, the year 1974 began with a very stormy period, with record speeds occurring at a number of locations on the night of the 11th-12th of January. Trees were blown down, many buildings were damaged and electricity supply to 150,000 homes was interrupted. It was during this storm that a gust of 124 m.p.h. was recorded at Kilkeel in County Down, making it the highest sea-level wind speed recorded in Ireland.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,553 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Rrea00119740111.gif

    hmm... at 945hpa, that's lower than the storms in December 1998 and January 1991

    oops. that was the chart for 1974, not this weekend's storm:o


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