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07-10-2019, 20:58   #16
Reckless Abandonment
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Originally Posted by Popeleo View Post
That landfall point is very near Suzuka and the Japanese GP is this weekend.
Wet race.. bring it on
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07-10-2019, 22:46   #17
YanSno
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Latest track from the JTWC
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07-10-2019, 22:50   #18
Gaoth Laidir
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It's just passed right over the island of Anatahan, which luckily is uninhabited. The island south of that is Saipan, where Super Royphoon Keane caused damage back in 2002.

It's going through an eyewall replacement cycle now and is expected to increase slightly to a max of 145 knots before slowly starting to weaken in a couple of days. The new track a slight bit east of the last one, more in line with Yokohama and Tokyo and completely eliminating Fukuoka from the equation. In fact, landfall would be right at Shizuoka, where Ireland played Japan.

Latest IR



Winds



Quote:
WDPN31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/
PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 011// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS STY 20W AS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL, 6 NM DIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 140 KTS, SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140 KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, BOTH OF WHICH ARE CORROBORATED BY THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) AND SATCON ESTIMATES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, RESULTING IN A STEADY-STATE INTENSITY OF 140 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD. WITH LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGH (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STY 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AFTER THE COMPLETION OF THE CURRENT ERC. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW VWS, HIGH SST, AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW) IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 145 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM?S OUTFLOW BEGINS TO BE DISRUPTED TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SLOWLY INCREASING TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN, ERODING THE STR AND ALLOWING STY 20W TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AROUND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT DOES SO, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WHICH WILL OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A LOW (90 NM) CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN

Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 07-10-2019 at 23:10.
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07-10-2019, 23:15   #19
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The JMA have it at 105 knots in their update at 2140Z. Seems a little low as they give the gusts as 150 knots. Maybe they're using 10-minute averages.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
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08-10-2019, 08:23   #20
Gaoth Laidir
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It's weakened 5 knots overnight as the ERC completed. Slight strengthening should reoccur before it weakens to about a 90-knot landfall now a bit further east again, closer to the Chiba area east of Tokyo Saturday night.




Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 08-10-2019 at 08:38.
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08-10-2019, 14:07   #21
schmoo2k
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Updated track from https://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/index.html:



(I marked the Irish and Scottish RWC venues for reference)
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08-10-2019, 14:46   #22
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Looks likely to affect F1 and Eng rugby this weekend. Suzuka circuit issued a statement this morning regarding a possible vague 'change of events' this weekend for the F1.

And for the rugby, well..
Quote:
World Rugby insists it has a "robust contingency plan in place" should the adverse weather impact tournament fixtures.

However, any games cancelled at the World Cup because of the weather are registered as scoreless draws.

Scotland need to beat Japan to stand any chance of reaching the last eight, while a victory sends Ireland into the last eight.
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09-10-2019, 00:04   #23
Gaoth Laidir
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The ERC has completed now and the eyewall is no longer a pinhole. The latest track has landfall near Shizuoka on Saturday Japan time. The F1 at Suzuka is about 150 km west of this forecast track so wind would not be a problem for the qualifying but rain sure could.



37 GHz (shows lower structure/clouds)



85 GHz (shows upper structure/deep convection bands). The eye is wider at the top than at lower levels (37 GHz).

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09-10-2019, 07:31   #24
M.T. Cranium
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If it happens during the rugby is it a tryphoon?
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09-10-2019, 08:01   #25
CIARAN_BOYLE
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
If it happens during the rugby is it a tryphoon?
I was gonna go with

If the Irish match is cancelled sending Scotland to the qf can we call it typhoon Haggis instead of hagibis.
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09-10-2019, 09:27   #26
Awaaf
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I keep reading it in my head as Typhoon Heebeegeebees! Thanks for the clear updates on this one guys.
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09-10-2019, 09:39   #27
Gaoth Laidir
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Latest forecast keeps the 64-knot radius in the northwest quadrant just far enough away not to affect the F1 at Suzuka. Still looking like landfall as a Cat 1 somewhere in the greater Tokyo region around lunchtime Saturday Irish time (Saturday night Japan time), so probably just early enough not to affect the Scotland match 18-24 hours later.



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09-10-2019, 12:25   #28
Naggdefy
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Originally Posted by Awaaf View Post
I keep reading it in my head as Typhoon Heebeegeebees! Thanks for the clear updates on this one guys.
I read it dropping the 'i' as typhoon Hagiis. A Scottish named omen. At first, when it was forecast as a possibility of going to Fukuoka, that our match would be called off and Scotland would beat Japan with both going through to the quarters.
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09-10-2019, 13:45   #29
Cork Boy 53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir View Post
Latest forecast keeps the 64-knot radius in the northwest quadrant just far enough away not to affect the F1 at Suzuka. Still looking like landfall as a Cat 1 somewhere in the greater Tokyo region around lunchtime Saturday Irish time (Saturday night Japan time), so probably just early enough not to affect the Scotland match 18-24 hours later.

That could still potentially affect the England-France and New Zealand- Italy matches on Saturday though.
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09-10-2019, 15:31   #30
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Is it likely to lead to heavy rainfall in the region of the Irish match even if the windstorm misses it? I understands its the worst pitch in the competition as is.....
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