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27-09-2019, 23:40   #46
Kermit.de.frog
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27-09-2019, 23:41   #47
sdanseo
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Even a 960mb low with extratropical features and 40kt sustained wind is no joke.

Note: from here on, post is borderline hyperbole based on ONE run. But still worth talking about.

GFS on the other hand. Literally off the scale with >160km/h gusts over land. I've never seen this on a GFS chart before, it's stuff usually reserved for ICON, or NAVGEM when it's had a few pints.

Edit: Portions of coastal Kerry could see 130km/h +mean wind here. Well into sustained hurricane force. (2nd pic)

ICON comes into range tomorrow night, could make for some spectacular (if speculative) charts with quite a lot of black off-the-chart type windspeeds in them.





Last edited by sdanseo; 27-09-2019 at 23:54.
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27-09-2019, 23:48   #48
Gaoth Laidir
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12Z ECM ensembles. Look similar to the previous couple of runs?

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27-09-2019, 23:50   #49
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Well wouldn't that be something.
Hopefully not though, as much as I love a good storm.
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27-09-2019, 23:50   #50
pauldry
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Remember all charts look fantastical at night runs but by morning watch for the "and now its gone" comments before it reappears as a yellow warning next weekend
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27-09-2019, 23:58   #51
tatranska
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I read the first post and my first thought was would you "feck off" with your hurricanes

I'm in the south west on the side of a mountain facing the Atlantic.

I nice shower would do grand and a bit of a breeze

How come Harm what's his name didn't mention hurricanes in his report on rte radio at 6 this evening?
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28-09-2019, 00:02   #52
Gaoth Laidir
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tatranska View Post
I read the first post and my first thought was would you "feck off" with your hurricanes

I'm in the south west on the side of a mountain facing the Atlantic.

I nice shower would do grand and a bit of a breeze

How come Harm what's his name didn't mention hurricanes in his report on rte radio at 6 this evening?
It's way too early. Let the redtop rags to that.
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28-09-2019, 00:03   #53
Kermit.de.frog
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tatranska View Post
I read the first post and my first thought was would you "feck off" with your hurricanes

I'm in the south west on the side of a mountain facing the Atlantic.

I nice shower would do grand and a bit of a breeze

How come Harm what's his name didn't mention hurricanes in his report on rte radio at 6 this evening?
lol

There won't be a "hurricane". It will be a cold core storm by the time it gets here so no eye so to speak. There could be a post transition tropical storm with hurricane force winds though equivalent to a Cat 1 strength storm.

At this far out the track and intensity will vary a lot though.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 28-09-2019 at 00:15.
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28-09-2019, 00:08   #54
J6P
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A bit premature maybe but the latest GFS and some ECM ensembles would be concerning.

If the worst case scenarios were to verify would this warrant a red alert/national emergency as was the case with Ophelia, If i remember correctly there was a couple of fatalities during Ophelia.
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28-09-2019, 00:16   #55
Gaoth Laidir
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The latest microwave at 2144Z shows that outer southern eyewall that was trying to form earlier a little less defined. Overall it's not looking as healty on its southern half as earlier as dry air is wrapping around and shear is starting to pull at it.




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28-09-2019, 00:25   #56
Kermit.de.frog
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Can a mod update the thread title to "hurricane" rather than storm for the time being?
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28-09-2019, 00:26   #57
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https://twitter.com/andrewwulfeck/st...53491638112262

Last edited by J6P; 28-09-2019 at 00:38.
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28-09-2019, 00:36   #58
Gaoth Laidir
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28-09-2019, 00:40   #59
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http://maritimebulletin.net/2019/09/...aiting-rescue/

Offshore AHT tug BOURBON RHODE issued distress signal in the morning Sep 26 in Atlantic, in vicinity 15 35N 040 10W, some 970 nm due W of Cape Verde. The ship while en route from Las Palmas Canary islands, to Georgetown Guyana, was caught in cyclone, suffering massive water ingress in ship’s compartments, 14 crew readying for evacuation. MRCC Antilles-Guyana directed the only ship in the area around distressed tug, bulk carrier SSI EXCELLENT (IMO 9693757), to assist.
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28-09-2019, 01:00   #60
Gaoth Laidir
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What it was doing sailing right through an eyewall in this day and age is beyond me.

https://twitter.com/UCARCPAESS/statu...201998848?s=19
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