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27-09-2019, 13:45   #16
Villain
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A thing of beauty!

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27-09-2019, 14:22   #17
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Absolute Unit!
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27-09-2019, 14:33   #18
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[QUOTE=Villain;111361539]A thing of beauty!

Gives me the creeps and the heebie jeebies and I am not easily scared. shudders
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27-09-2019, 14:43   #19
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What are the chances this storm will hit the south west of ireland
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27-09-2019, 15:24   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by octsol View Post
What are the chances this storm will hit the south west of ireland
Unknown.
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27-09-2019, 15:25   #21
Gaoth Laidir
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Latest tracks and intensity. Intensity is fairly tightly clustered around a Cat 1 at T +120 hrs, which is around the time it reaches the Azores, but there is a few hours timing difference between the models.





The 12Z SHIPS LGEM has it at 63 knots at that stage and weakening, with 48 knots of shear, moving at 25 knots over SSTs of 21 °C.

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27-09-2019, 17:48   #22
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From the Met Office :

Hurricane Lorenzo is the strongest hurricane on record to exist this far east in the Atlantic (Category 4, 145 mph). Whilst it is set to weaken to some extent before reaching the Azores, hurricane force winds and heavy rain are likely for these mid-Atlantic Portuguese islands.


https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/...900385793?s=20





Tropical Tidbits


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27-09-2019, 18:25   #23
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This might look a bit trippy but a good comparison between the 12z runs of yesterday and the 0z runs of this morning regarding forecast track of this storm from both the GFS and the ECMWF:

GFS: 12z (yesterday) vs 00z:





ECMWF 12z (yesterday) vs 00z:




All over the gaff, not only between the two models, but between different runs of the same model.
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27-09-2019, 19:01   #24
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Comparison of ICON output for both Lorenzo and Ophelia. At the moment Ophelia is the big sister.

Lorenzo



Ophelia 2017

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27-09-2019, 19:13   #25
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#prayforireland

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27-09-2019, 20:13   #26
Meteorite58
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ECM 12Z rolling out and quite similar to the last run if bringing the remnants of Lorenzo a bit closer to the South of Ireland. Still the strongest winds offshore on this run .

Note showing 850 hPa winds below ( roughly a height of 1.5 km's )





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27-09-2019, 20:15   #27
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A huge difference between the various models' pressure and wind analyses of Lorenzo at 12Z today. These are not forecasts, they're the actual initial starting conditions for the 12Z runs. The GFS is different to all the rest, but it may be closer to reality, as the microwave scans showed no real deep convection in that southwestern quadrant. The latest scan at 6 pm shows that the eyewall has actually dismantled further (bottom image, deep red colour) but a second one may be replacing it (to the south).







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27-09-2019, 20:17   #28
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Will definitely be a windy few days at the end of next week.

Too far away to determine whether it will be fierce but its interesting
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27-09-2019, 20:31   #29
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NHC mentons that Lorenzo has being passing over a slightly cooler surface temperature and is forecast to reach warmer water in 12- 24 hrs. After that, it stays over sea surface temperatures near 28C through about 72 h.

Mentions will be going through various eye wall replacement cycles.

NHC 'After 72 h,the cyclone will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and
move over much colder water. This, and the approach of the
aforementioned deep-layer trough, will lead to extratropical
transition that will be underway, but likely not complete, by 120 h.'

UKM0 12Z +144 more to the SW/ W of Ireland on the latest run, filling on its approach.

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27-09-2019, 20:53   #30
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I think with the remnants of Lorenzo entering the fray next week and bringing up so much energy with it that it has the possibility of interacting with other areas of LP's as shown in the GFS 12Z and could be seeing quite an unsettled period around next weekend.

GFS not far off the UKMO and closer now to the ECM track than other runs but showing it stronger than the other models with a center pressure of around 930 hPa which is very much at odds with the ECM and UKMO.









Last edited by Meteorite58; 27-09-2019 at 21:02.
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