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01-09-2019, 20:07   #1
Meteorite58
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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ECM still holding the general track of the remnants of Dorian. It is far to early to know if any remnants of any severity will make it this far, but worth keeping an eye on. GFS is almost a carbon copy of the ECM atm on this one.

These are 850hpa winds, about 1.5 km's above sea level, a rough guide to what gusts could be like.











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Last edited by Meteorite58; 01-09-2019 at 20:22.
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02-09-2019, 20:39   #2
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Main models atm showing the remnants of Dorian pass well off the NW next week . Breezy in general, windy on coasts and some rain. Nothing out of the ordinary at this stage.






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06-09-2019, 19:54   #3
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ECM has Gabrielle just grazing the North of Scotland next Thursday. Not much too it right now, but worth keeping an eye on.

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06-09-2019, 20:59   #4
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While the remnants of Dorian have been trending to pass well to the NW producing just some windy weather on the coasts and breezy weather overland with a front producing a modest amount of rain, ex Gabrielle although smaller in nature by the time it reaches our shores has been trending to deepen a bit as it passes close to the NW , producing strong winds in the Northernmost tip of Scotland on the present run. ICON strongest and furthest offshore, GFS next and ECM least windy on the latest runs. A good bit to go yet.

Often track further N as time draws close but definitely one to keep an eye on as MJohnston posted above.















Last edited by Meteorite58; 06-09-2019 at 21:04.
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06-09-2019, 21:10   #5
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Strong jet helping to re-energize ex Gabrielle perhaps











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06-09-2019, 22:21   #6
sdanseo
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Comparison with Ophelia also around 2 days after its formation. Much further west and too cold.

Ophelia was literally a perfect storm, westerlies only kick in around 30N.




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08-09-2019, 12:47   #7
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next two looks is looking increasingly dry, warm and settled with very little rain forecast after this week has passed, even this week doesn't look that wet.

Dublin see's very little rain from the 13th to the 24th of September and temperatures rising from the 14th.



High pressure looks set to dominate from the 13th:


Winds swing around from the south-east drawing up warmer air from central and southern Europe:



Atlantic makes an attempt in on the 19th of September:


High pressure tries to get going again by the 22nd


Uppers look high for the time of year during this spell, could get temperatures into the low to mid 20's



Even up to the end of FI, uppers look quite toasty for September:



Fingers crossed this will work out, what could be one final push for Summer weather, would be a very welcome change after the average August and something to look forward to before Autumn properly digs in for October.
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08-09-2019, 13:38   #8
km79
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Yes yes yes yes yes yes
Give it to me baby
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08-09-2019, 13:46   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by km79 View Post
Yes yes yes yes yes yes
Give it to me baby
looks great right now, but this is still a week away, i'd expect this to get downgraded somewhat with temperatures and the high could easily shift further east keeping Ireland with more of an Atlantic influence, but we shall see.
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10-09-2019, 18:44   #10
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Ireland more under the influence of Hp which stays close by out to the following week end with the models in good agreement.





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10-09-2019, 20:54   #11
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Highs for the West are now like snow. A predicted long spell of snow usually means one day in Winter. For this spell I told my wife next Tuesday will be warm but drizzle every other day.
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12-09-2019, 23:05   #12
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ECM holding the Hp more than the GFS. GEM better than the GFS also.






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14-09-2019, 10:51   #13
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Hp seems to be holding until about next Fri. As MT said in his forecast with a possible breakdown around weekend of 21st - 22nd. Atlantic possibly becoming active again by next weekend .Tropical activity peaking around now and currently models picking up possible systems tracking our way but very far out. Good to keep an eye on and see if there is an active trend developing .

In general temperatures above normal and pleasantly mild or warm at times. Will be interesting to see if the temperatures MT are talking about materialize.









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15-09-2019, 20:47   #14
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Models chopping an changing a bit from the weekend, GFS was showing some deep lows but dropped them, now the ECM showing a deepening low for next Sunday but this could disappear again. The Jet which will be mostly arcing North of us this week looks set to move in over us from around the weekend. Very hard to predict what will happen but we could be seeing some sort of depression or storm being churned out . ECM on its own with this one for now.

















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16-09-2019, 20:45   #15
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Hurricane Humberto? Seeing it’s path might edge towards Ireland...
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