Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

September 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

2»

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    29.1c in Kildare on 1 Sep 1906.

    Very impressive for Ireland!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Min recorded on the 8th is 4.4°C recorded in Moorepark Co. Cork. There is potential for Max to be recorded next weekend or into next week. Potential for the warmest weather ever for the ploughing in Co. Carlow next week.

    What'll I do with the new wellies I got?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Therell be drizzle in the Northwest go there


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Min 2.9c Mullingar now poss lower Mt Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,098 ✭✭✭rameire


    pauldry wrote: »
    Min 2.9c Mullingar now poss lower Mt Dillon

    Carlow Weather got 1.8c this morning.

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Split 2.28S, 1.52E. 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    pauldry wrote: »
    Min 2.9c Mullingar now poss lower Mt Dillon

    Sorry but after looking up met.ie I see Mullingar had a low of 7.8°C I cannot see the 2.9°C on the 12th so can’t confirm it.
    I can now confirm 3.6°C for Mt. Dillon yesterday. But at the time of posting there are temperature figures missing on the yesterday's weather page from inland stations. So there could be a lower temperature when met.ie post up the results.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    Sorry but after looking up met.ie I see Mullingar had a low of 7.8°C I cannot see the 2.9°C on the 12th so can’t confirm it.
    I can now confirm 3.6°C for Mt. Dillon yesterday. But at the time of posting there are temperature figures missing on the yesterday's weather page from inland stations. So there could be a lower temperature when met.ie post up the results.

    It shows 2.9c now at Mullingar from yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT on 13.1 C. The second week averaged 12.7 which is 1.0 deg below normal for that period (8th-14th).

    MAX appears to be 21.8 yesterday at Oak Park.

    MIN is 2.9 from Mullingar on 13th.

    PRC is now 65% of normal, the second week average was 76% and once again quite dry in the south to rather wet in the north.

    SUN is now at 109% with this past week rather sunny, 126% of normal (755/600).


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Min now 2.0°C recorded at Mt Dillon on the 17th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    MAX now 22.1°C recorded at Athenry on 19th. I thought I saw 22.3°C posted on yesterday's weather earlier but now reads what's quoted now. Thanks M.T.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Currently listed as 22.1 on yesterday's weather. Thought we might do a bit better today but highest hourly so far seems to be 21.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT is now on 13.2 with the last week at 13.5 which was 0.4 above normal for the period. Looks like the IMT could drift down to about a 12.9 finish perhaps.

    MAX so far 22.1 and MIN 2.0. MAX appears safe now, MIN could also last with a cloudy stretch ahead.

    PRC was on 63% with this past week at 65%. For a change the north was driest. To reach normal for the month, the last nine days would need to average 186% of normal. It may meet that target.

    SUN now at 129% with the week very sunny at 170% (1018/600). With 50% for rest of month, the outcome would be 105% of normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT has held on at 13.36 so it will likely finish on 13.3. The past week averaged 13.7 which was 1.4 above normal.

    MAX still 22.1 and MIN 2.0, slight chance of MIN being revised overnight. MAX is set.

    PRC -- big change -- now at 115% of normal with the past week a very wet 270%, some stations as much as five times normal. With another rainfall expected tomorrow, this could grow again to 120% or more for a finish.

    SUN -- also a considerable change -- now at 112% with the past week rather cloudy at 62% of normal (371/600). With little expected tomorrow after a rather cloudy Sunday, would peg this around 110%.

    No new info on the bonus question, 50 knots may end up the answer but will be checking the MS to make sure.

    I may post some preliminary scores tomorrow once the MIN is more settled.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Table of forecasts for September 2019


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust (knots)

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 14.0 _ 25.7 _ -1.0 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 63

    JCX BXC ____ (-2) ________13.9 _ 24.9 _ +0.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 48

    waterways __ (-1) ________ 13.5 _ 25.9 _ -2.0 _ 098 _ 099 ____ 59

    Dasa29 _________________13.5 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 45

    mickger844posts _________ 13.5 _ 22.9 _ +0.2 _ 091 _ 105 ____ 46

    Rameire ________________ 13.5 _ 21.0 _ -0.9 _ 112 _ 092 ____ 62

    Tae laidir _______________ 13.4 _ 21.8 _ -1.5 _ 085 _ 108 ____ 44

    DOCARCH _______________13.3 _ 24.3 _ -0.4 _ 094 _ 112 ____ 48

    john mac ___ (-2) ________ 13.3 _ 24.1 _ +1.6 _ 102 _ 099 ____ 51

    Kindred Spirit ____________13.3 _ 22.6 __ 0.0 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 53


    ____ Con Sensus _________13.3 _ 23.3 _ -0.1 _ 095 _ 100 ____ 54


    Joe public _______________13.2 _ 24.5 _ +1.1 _ 088 _ 120 ____ 68

    Artane2002 _____________ 13.2 _ 22.8 _ +1.1 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 54

    Sunflower3 ______________13.2 _ 22.5 _ -1.2 _ 095 _ 095 ____ 48

    ____ NormaL ____________13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 57

    Pauldry ________________ 13.0 _ 24.0 _ +1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 60

    Rikand _________________13.0 _ 24.0 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 70

    Jpmarn ________________ 13.0 _ 23.8 _ +1.2 _ 115 _ 110 ____ 55

    Adam240610 __ (-2) _____ 13.0 _ 22.1 _ -1.1 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 48

    200motels ______________12.9 _ 24.0 _ +1.0 _ 089 _ 090 ____ 53

    sryanbruen _____________ 12.9 _ 23.1 _ +0.6 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 58

    Blizzard7 _______________ 12.7 _ 22.0 _ -1.6 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 63

    MrSkinner ______________ 12.6 _ 23.6 _ +0.6 _ 116 _ 086 ____ 56

    Bsal ___________________ 12.5 _ 21.1 _ -0.8 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 52


    ======================

    Just for connivence until MT post up the results.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Seems that the overnight low was no colder than 4 C on hourlies at least, so the 2.0 is probably set now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional scoring for September 2019


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___gust (kts) ____ TOTAL

    Estimated values _________ 13.3_22.1_+2.0_120_110____50


    Artane2002 _____________ 25 _ 13 _ 18*_ 09*_ 07 ____ 08 _______ 80

    Jpmarn _________________23 _ 03 _ 19*_ 13*_ 10 ____ 07 _______ 75

    Kindred Spirit ____________24 _ 15 _ 10*_ 02*_ 10 ____ 09 _______ 70

    john mac ___ (-2) ________ 24 _ 00 _ 20*_ 10*_ 08 ____ 10 __ 72-2=70

    Sunflower3 ______________ 25 _ 16 _ 03*_ 08*_ 07 ____ 10 _______ 69

    mickger844posts _________ 22 _ 12 _ 11*_ 06*_ 09 ____ 08 _______ 68

    sryanbruen ______________ 22 _ 10 _ 14*_ 06*_ 09 ____ 06 _______ 67

    Adam240610 __ (-2) _______23 _ 20 _ 03*_ 03*_ 10 ____ 10 __ 69-2=67

    Blizzard7 ________________ 20 _ 19 _ 02*_ 15*_ 08 ____ 03 _______ 67

    Bsal ____________________ 18 _ 10 _ 08*_ 13*_ 07 ____ 10 _______ 66


    ____ Con Sensus __________24 _ 08 _ 09*_ 08*_ 08 ____ 08 _______ 65


    MrSkinner _______________ 19 _ 05 _ 14*_ 14*_ 05 ____ 07 _______ 64

    Dasa29 __________________22 _ 06 _ 06*_ 13*_ 09 ____ 07 _______ 63

    Tae laidir ________________ 23 _ 17 _ 02*_ 04*_ 10 ____ 07 _______ 63

    Rameire _________________22 _ 09 _ 07*_ 12*_ 06 ____ 04 _______ 60

    200motels _______________ 22 _ 01 _ 16*_ 06*_ 06 ____ 09 _______ 60

    DOCARCH _______________ 24 _ 00 _ 08*_ 07*_ 10 ____ 10 _______ 59

    Pauldry __________________23 _ 01 _ 16*_ 06*_ 08 ____ 05 _______ 59

    JCX BXC ____ (-2) ________ 18 _ 00 _ 14*_ 11*_ 07 ____ 10 __ 60-2= 58

    Joe public ________________25 _ 00 _ 18*_ 05*_ 08 ____ 02 _______ 58


    ____ NormaL _____________24 _ 00 _ 06*_ 09*_ 08 ____ 06 _______ 53


    Rikand __________________ 23 _ 01 _ 10*_ 06*_ 08 ____ 01 _______ 49

    waterways __ (-1) _________22 _ 00 _ 01*_ 09*_ 08 ____ 05 __ 45-1= 44

    M.T. Cranium _____________17 _ 00 _ 06*_ 03*_ 10 ____ 03 _______ 39

    ___________________________________________________________

    * Minimum progression used for MIN scoring as half the field had zero on raw scores. No reductions as highest raw score was 16/20.
    __ MAX scores left raw as only one-third were zero and the top end was fully achieved.

    *With the adjustment of PRC, scores there require a boost also, highest forecast 130%, actual 141% so there was no reduction in the boost available, and scoring therefore has not changed much from before except for BLIZZARD7 who got a larger increase as a result.

    These scores will be adjusted on the 1st and 2nd as end of month data are confirmed.


    =============================================

    (Forecasts)

    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust (knots)

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 14.0 _ 25.7 _ -1.0 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 63

    JCX BXC ____ (-2) ________13.9 _ 24.9 _ +0.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 48

    waterways __ (-1) ________ 13.5 _ 25.9 _ -2.0 _ 098 _ 099 ____ 59

    Dasa29 _________________13.5 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 45

    mickger844posts _________ 13.5 _ 22.9 _ +0.2 _ 091 _ 105 ____ 46

    Rameire ________________ 13.5 _ 21.0 _ -0.9 _ 112 _ 092 ____ 62

    Tae laidir _______________ 13.4 _ 21.8 _ -1.5 _ 085 _ 108 ____ 44

    DOCARCH _______________13.3 _ 24.3 _ -0.4 _ 094 _ 112 ____ 48

    john mac ___ (-2) ________ 13.3 _ 24.1 _ +1.6 _ 102 _ 099 ____ 51

    Kindred Spirit ____________13.3 _ 22.6 __ 0.0 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 53


    ____ Con Sensus _________13.3 _ 23.3 _ -0.1 _ 095 _ 100 ____ 54


    Joe public _______________13.2 _ 24.5 _ +1.1 _ 088 _ 120 ____ 68

    Artane2002 _____________ 13.2 _ 22.8 _ +1.1 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 54

    Sunflower3 ______________13.2 _ 22.5 _ -1.2 _ 095 _ 095 ____ 48

    ____ NormaL ____________13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 57

    Pauldry ________________ 13.0 _ 24.0 _ +1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 60

    Rikand _________________13.0 _ 24.0 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 70

    Jpmarn ________________ 13.0 _ 23.8 _ +1.2 _ 115 _ 110 ____ 55

    Adam240610 __ (-2) _____ 13.0 _ 22.1 _ -1.1 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 48

    200motels ______________12.9 _ 24.0 _ +1.0 _ 089 _ 090 ____ 53

    sryanbruen _____________ 12.9 _ 23.1 _ +0.6 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 58

    Blizzard7 _______________ 12.7 _ 22.0 _ -1.6 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 63

    MrSkinner ______________ 12.6 _ 23.6 _ +0.6 _ 116 _ 086 ____ 56

    Bsal ___________________ 12.5 _ 21.1 _ -0.8 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 52


    =====================


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final numbers are in for

    IMT (13.2)

    PRC (141)

    and my SUN estimate is going to stand until I can check the MS.

    Those will require some editing of the provisional scoring table, you'll see when that is finished by a note in the edit box.

    Rainfall quite heavy on 30th at several locations, bumping up the averages considerably. Despite it all, Cork managed a below normal finish, the other ten were scattered with Ballyhaise the wettest relative to normal at 207%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    All provisional scoring is now confirmed, the SUN averaged 4.5 hours a day while normal for the grid is 4.1, so that's very close to our estimate of 110%. MAX, MIN, top gust etc, all same in MS as we had in our table.

    Congrats to Artane2002 for top score in a rather challenging month (well I thought so anyway). JPmarn had a solid second place finish, John mac and Kindred Spirit were tied third ahead of a number of others who managed to beat the omnipresent Con Sensus.

    So it's on to the annual scoring update. That should appear fairly soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated annual scoring for 2019 (January to September)

    (order is now best 7/9, last month's rank for 6/8 in brackets)
    __ (rank for total score shown in brackets after total score.)


    _(rank) _ best 7/9 _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ 2019 TOTAL


    _ 01 (01) __ 520 __ Tae laidir _________ 70 __ 67 __ 83 __ 80 __ 58 __ 64 __ 83 __ 73 __ 63 __ 641 (1)

    _ 02 (05) __ 491 __ Artane2002 _______ 46 __ 60 __ 48 __ 52 __ 66 __ 73 __ 91 __ 69 __ 80 __ 585 (3)

    _ 03 (02) __ 490 __ mickger844posts ___ 65 __ 47 __ 68 __ 33 __ 65 __ 69 __ 77 __ 78 __ 68 __ 570 (5)

    _ 04 (03) __ 489 __ Sunflower3 ________77 __ 67 __ 67 __ 52 __ 60 __ 58 __ 79 __ 70 __ 69 __ 599 (2)

    _ 05 (04) __ 475 __ waterways ________ 75 __ 19 __ 63 __ 70 __ 56 __ 84 __ 58 __ 69 __ 43 __ 537 (13)


    _(06)(06) __ 468 __ Con Sensus________61 __ 57 __ 72 __ 53 __ 57 __ 67 __ 74 __ 72 __ 65 __ 578 (4)


    _ 06 (06) __ 467 __ Bsal ______________47 __ 58 __ 77 __ 45 __ 56 __ 59 __ 77 __ 74 __ 66 __ 559 (7)

    _ 07 (07) __ 465 __ sryanbruen ________41 __ 42 __ 56 __ 53 __ 86 __ 70 __ 82 __ 51 __ 67 __ 548 (10)

    _t08 (08) __ 461 __ MrSkinner _________70 __ 52 __ 50 __ 64 __ 55 __ 64 __ 75 __ 69 __ 64 __ 563 (6)

    _t08 (t09)__ 461 __ Adam240610 ______ 63 __ 65 __ 59 __ 66 __ 59 __ 52 __ 72 __ 69 __ 67 __ 572 (4)

    _ 10 (11) __ 460 __ Kindred Spirit ______ 58 __ 62 __ 77 __ 44 __ 49 __ 20 __ 71 __ 73 __ 70 __ 524 (18)

    _ 11 (t12)__ 456 __ john mac _________ 49 __ 61 __ 63 __ 67 __ 39 __ 83 __ 62 __ 50 __ 70 __ 544 (12)

    _ 12 (t09)__ 453 __ DOCARCH _________63 __ 68 __ 63 __ 48 __ 67 __ 49 __ 76 __ 57 __ 59 __ 550 (8)

    _ 13 (18) __ 452 __ Jpmarn ___________69 __ 43 __ 60 __ 62 __ 58 __ 58 __ 50 __ 70 __ 75 __ 545 (11)

    _ 14 (t12)__ 445 __ pauldry ___________55 __ 62 __ 60 __ 51 __ 53 __ 56 __ 85 __ 68 __ 59 __ 549 (9)

    _ 15 (17) __ 443 __ dasa29 ___________ 48 __ 46 __ 85 __ 45 __ 62 __ 53 __ 65 __ 67 __ 63 __ 534 (15)

    _t16 (t15)__ 442 __ 200motels ________ 48 __ 68 __ 62 __ 60 __ 66 __ 49 __ 77 __ 42 __ 60 __ 532 (t16)

    _t16 (t15)__ 442 __ Rameire __________ 56 __ 77 __ 64 __ 48 __ 61 __ 48 __ 54 __ 70 __ 60 __ 538 (13)

    _ 18 (14) __ 441 __ JCX BXC __________ 65 __ 53 __ 66 __ 38 __ 66 __ 65 __ 66 __ 55 __ 58 __ 532 (t16)

    _ 19 (22) __ 424 __ Joe Public _________ 62 __ 24 __ 44 __ 52 __ 60 __ 71 __ 56 __ 65 __ 58 __ 492 (21)

    _ 20 (21) __ 422 __ Rikand ___________ 62 __ 59 __ 54 __ 56 __ 48 __ 64 __ 65 __ 62 __ 49 __ 519 (19)

    _ 21 (19) __ 421 __ M.T. Cranium ______ 45 __ 54 __ 59 __ 45 __ 57 __ 66 __ 69 __ 71 __ 39 __ 505 (20)

    _ 22 (20) __ 416 __ Dacogawa ________ 41 __ 49 __ 71 __ 60 __ 41 __ 70 __ 61 __ 64 __ ---- __ 457 (22)


    _(23)(23) __414 __ NormaL ___________49 __ 60 __ 58 __ 48 __ 58 __ 57 __ 77 __ 51 __ 53 __ 511 (20)


    _ 23 (23) __ 311 __ BLIZZARD7 _______ 18 __ --- __ 33 __ 55 __ 32 __ 49 __ 57 __ --- __ 67 __ 311 (23)

    _ --- (---) __ 275 __ YanSno __________ 62 __ --- __ --- __ 44 __ 58 __ 38 __ 73 __ --- __ --- __ 275 (24)

    _ too few ________ Gonzo _____________--- __ ---__ --- __ --- __ --- __ 64 __ 70 __ --- __ 134 (25)

    _ too few ________ sdanseo ___________ 45 __ 36 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 81

    _ too few ________ bazlers ____________ --- __ ---__ 50 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 50

    _ too few ________ Tazio _____________ --- __ 44 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 44

    _ too few ________ derekon ___________ 39 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 39
    _________________________________________________________________________

    While updating, I caught a slight error in the reporting last month. Tae laidir had 456 points for 6/8 not 452 as shown in the table.

    Also the table header said best 5/7 above totals that were actually 6/8 (forgot to update from previous table there).

    This is what was shown ... corrected data below.

    Updated annual scoring for 2019 (January to August)

    (order is now best 6/8, last month's rank 5/7 in brackets)
    __ (rank for total score shown in brackets after total score.)


    _(rank) _ best 5/7 _ FORECASTER ______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug __ 2019 TOTAL

    _(rank) _ best 6/8 __ (then all okay ...)


    _ 01 (01) __ 452 __ Tae laidir _________ 70 __ 67 __ 83 __ 80 __ 58 __ 64 __ 83 __ 73 __ 578 (1)

    _ 01 (01) __ 456 __ (then all okay ...)

    ===============================================================

    Okay, with that book-keeping done, congrats once again to Tae laidir who maintains a fairly comfortable lead in both contests, Artane2002 converted high score for September into second place in the main contest just ahead of mickger844posts and sunflower3.


Advertisement