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01-10-2019, 21:36   #5386
M.T. Cranium
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Update __ Tuesday 1st of October 2019 __ 9:30 p.m.
=======================================

The chances of a high impact storm are growing with models beginning to converge on a track for Lorenzo that either skirts the north coast of Mayo or makes a landfall in Mayo or even Galway, by Thursday afternoon. The further track would then be east to southeast into the Irish Sea.

There appears to be enough forcing from the upper low capturing Lorenzo to warrant the possibility that orange level warnings will be quite likely in Connacht and Clare, and possibly even a local red alert for areas south of the landfall zone. That could be either Galway Bay or around Donegal Bay depending on how this plays out.

Will be assessing this carefully overnight (your time) and the morning forecast may have later information unknown to us at this hour, but for now would say expect a higher impact storm in the west certainly, and possibly spreading some distance inland through central counties if the trajectory is further south than some guidance shows.

The timing appears to be locking in on Thursday afternoon and evening for the strongest winds (which could be in excess of 120 km/hr in exposed areas) to arrive, except Thursday night and Friday morning possibly along the east coast which could get sideswiped by strong northerly gusts (80-100 km/hr) as the low moves towards Wales.

It doesn't appear as though rainfall will be too heavy but Lorenzo's rain will be falling on saturated watersheds in some parts of the country after heavy rains in late September (Ballyhaise for example reported twice normal monthly amounts).

And with the long fetch amplifying swells and waves, the sea state around the Clare, Galway and Mayo coastlines could be a safety concern. Luckily we are going to be several days after new moon by Thursday but even so, a storm surge of considerable size is possible. Will leave the details on that to the relevant authorities, monitor their forecasts closely if you're near any coasts as there will be widespread elevated high tides at certain times during this event.
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02-10-2019, 08:01   #5387
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 2 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



Update on Lorenzo -- Hurricane Lorenzo has recently moved past the western Azores islands of Flores and Corvo, with hurricane force gusts reported. It is already about 150 miles northeast of them now and moving very rapidly towards Ireland. The main portion of the Azores had some tropical storm force winds at times but escaped the main hurricane bands with some squally showers overnight. Almost all guidance now shows Lorenzo becoming "extra-tropical" (a more traditional low in other words) in the next 24 hours, then approaching Connacht in a gradually weakening condition, finally swerving southeast from Donegal Bay to make a landfall between Mayo and southwest Donegal by Thursday evening, and the steadily weakening low tracking southeast towards Dublin overnight, then crossing the south Irish Sea Friday morning.

Forecasts here are based on the prudent choice of a somewhat higher end of the range of possibilities as maps hint at a weakening trend developing just before the landfall stage. It should be noted that Lorenzo will be tracking fairly close to the coast for 9 to 12 hours before making the landfall so that weakening might not apply to its strength while approaching the coast. And a key point is that the elevated sea state conditions, with large swells and breaking waves likely out ahead of the storm, would not be much affected by any weakening trends late in the period. The ocean effects will be the most reliable part of the projected scenario and Galway Bay in particular as well as other west coast bays should be prepared for some coastal inundation and battering waves on exposed shores.

(Trends are the same as reported yesterday and will return once Lorenzo is past).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a gradual increase in cloud and the arrival of lower cloud layers in the west by afternoon, but the sun will be dimly visible through the higher cloud layers. It will feel rather brisk despite a drop in wind speeds for most of the day. Winds will be veering gradually around from northeast to southeast as a weak ridge drifts east, and the start of the southerly flow ahead of Lorenzo arrives tonight. Highs today will reach about 15 C in the south and 12 C in parts of the north.

TONIGHT will continue overcast with a slowly increasing southeast wind reaching 40-60 km/hr at times near south coast. Rain may move into some western areas towards morning. Lows will be 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with increasingly strong southeast to south winds, and intervals of rain. Rather mild with highs 17 to 20 C. Winds will be 50 to 80 km/hr for most areas during the day, but could reach 80-110 km/hr by late afternoon on the west coast. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm will be widespread, 15-20 mm in Donegal and perhaps northwest Mayo. Although the centre of Lorenzo will remain off the coast, large swells and waves will impact the west coast and to a lesser extent other coasts, by mid-day and through the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT will see the strongest impacts on land, and as discussed, there is some chance that the storm will tend to blow itself out over the ocean just before hitting land. However, in the event that it retains some intensity to landfall, there is a risk of winds in the 80-120 km/hr range in coastal Connacht and 70-110 km/hr in west Munster, later extending into the midlands. These will veer from southwest to west then northwest as the low tracks into central Ireland. Some outbreaks of heavy rain (20-30 mm) are likely north of the track, with a few squally showers near and to the south of the track (a further 5-15 mm there). Temperatures will be steady 10 to 13 C. The southeast will likely remain less windy throughout and conditions from Dublin to Waterford and possibly as far as Cork could be relatively moderate until morning.

FRIDAY the remnants of Lorenzo will be tracking south of Dublin if not over the capital, but with much reduced wind speeds in general. Once into the Irish Sea, winds may pick up briefly from the north at 50-80 km/hr. Otherwise most parts of the country will soon be in a more moderate northwest wind flow, backing around to westerly. Some bands of rain or showers will persist for the morning hours then a gradual clearing is expected once the weak remnants of Lorenzo reach southern England. Highs will reach about 16 or 17 C.

SATURDAY will be mild with intervals of rain and southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, clearing by afternoon with winds easing to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Temperatures will fall rapidly Saturday night.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and cooler with lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C. Another batch of wind and rain is expected by Sunday night into Monday.

The outlook for next week is for colder weather to arrive after the Monday frontal system moves through, highs with that around 15 C but later in the week closer to 10-12 C, and some risk of slight frosts at night.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and still rather cold, highs near 10 C. The snow has pretty much disappeared in town now but still lies 15 to 30 cm thick over higher terrain close by to the northwest. We have had little leaf fall yet although a nearly complete change in autumn colours (the local forests however are mostly coniferous, only in the town and lower down into the Columbia valley can one find many autumn colours on display).

Watch for updates on Lorenzo.
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03-10-2019, 07:45   #5388
M.T. Cranium
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Thursday, 3 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



UPDATE on storm Lorenzo -- The powerful extratropical low is now approaching the M6 buoy which is located about 200 miles west of Galway Bay. The latest wind reports there are southeast 56 km/hr gusting to 93. Waves of six metres have been reported with a period of just seven seconds. That is quite an active sea state although ten metre waves may occur eventually. Large swells are likely to hit the west coast all day with increasing severity during the afternoon. The main forecast problem is, will the very strong winds stay just off the coast or will they move some distance inland? The storm is predicted to keep moving northeast all day then make a rather abrupt turn southeast and move inland over north Connacht or Donegal this evening. The further south that actually happens, the larger will be the wind impacts for Connacht and the midlands as the storm tracks through north-central Ireland. A more reliable impact will be locally heavy rainfalls in Donegal and some other parts of the northwest; anywhere that remains to the north of the track will see more rain than places south of the track. Regions near the south and east coasts will have more moderate impacts and it may not be until Friday morning that Dublin feels much of the effects, and if the storm weakens to the maximum extent shown on some guidance, that may not be a very strong impact. However, there are still some models showing a more significant impact. We will go with a middle-ground forecast with the caveat that it could turn out a bit stronger or a bit weaker than implied in the forecasts.

Trends -- for the week ahead -- temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal, rainfall about 25% above normal, and sunshine near normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become quite windy especially near the west coast, and some rain will move into western counties, with bands of showers and possibly a thunderstorm embedded moving through central and eastern counties later in the day. It will be warmer with highs 17 to 20 C. The winds will start out southeast 50 to 80 km/hr by mid-day, 70-110 km/hr near the west coast, and possibly higher (to 130 km/hr) on exposed islands and headlands. Over the near Atlantic winds will be force 10 to 12 southerly. Large waves and swells are anticipated with some coastal flooding possible at times near high tides.

TONIGHT will remain quite windy in the west, with outbreaks of heavy rain in Donegal and some parts of north Connacht, into central Ulster and eventually north Leinster. 20-30 mm rain could fall with localized flooding in these areas. Temperatures will be steady 11 to 13 C except around 7 to 9 C in Ulster. With the low tracking inland, winds in these areas will back around from southeast to northeast 40 to 70 km/hr. Further south, occasional showers in blustery westerly winds likely. Some parts of the Connacht coast could see brief intervals of very strong winds to 120 or even 130 km/hr as the decaying remnants of Lorenzo move inland. Timing and exact location best left to a later forecast when the storm has made its final turn to land. Newport, Clifden, Connemara and Galway Bay are possible locations for these strong wind gusts. Sea states will remain quite high especially on the Atlantic coast.

The effects of the storm may be less conspicuous in some parts of the inland south, southeast and midlands. The range of possible outcomes would be between moderate southwest to west winds and showers, to storm force gusts and squally showers. This forecast will be updated this evening so check out the latest information.

FRIDAY will continue rather blustery in the morning hours with a calming trend by afternoon in most regions. A few remnant showers will move away by mid-day to leave partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 15 to 17 C.

SATURDAY will bring bands of light to moderate rain, 5-15 mm likely, followed by a partial clearing trend by afternoon. Winds will be southerly veering to westerly, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and the temperature range will be 8 to 16 C.

MONDAY will see further rain, strong southwest winds, and highs near 18 C.

The rest of next week looks unsettled but colder in stages, although further rain at times may bring in brief temperature rises to 14 C.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and a bit milder at 12-14 C.

An update will be issued late afternoon to early evening, or earlier if necessary.
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03-10-2019, 07:45   #5389
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Thursday, 3 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



UPDATE on storm Lorenzo -- The powerful extratropical low is now approaching the M6 buoy which is located about 200 miles west of Galway Bay. The latest wind reports there are southeast 56 km/hr gusting to 93. Waves of six metres have been reported with a period of just seven seconds. That is quite an active sea state although ten metre waves may occur eventually. Large swells are likely to hit the west coast all day with increasing severity during the afternoon. The main forecast problem is, will the very strong winds stay just off the coast or will they move some distance inland? The storm is predicted to keep moving northeast all day then make a rather abrupt turn southeast and move inland over north Connacht or Donegal this evening. The further south that actually happens, the larger will be the wind impacts for Connacht and the midlands as the storm tracks through north-central Ireland. A more reliable impact will be locally heavy rainfalls in Donegal and some other parts of the northwest; anywhere that remains to the north of the track will see more rain than places south of the track. Regions near the south and east coasts will have more moderate impacts and it may not be until Friday morning that Dublin feels much of the effects, and if the storm weakens to the maximum extent shown on some guidance, that may not be a very strong impact. However, there are still some models showing a more significant impact. We will go with a middle-ground forecast with the caveat that it could turn out a bit stronger or a bit weaker than implied in the forecasts.

Trends -- for the week ahead -- temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal, rainfall about 25% above normal, and sunshine near normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become quite windy especially near the west coast, and some rain will move into western counties, with bands of showers and possibly a thunderstorm embedded moving through central and eastern counties later in the day. It will be warmer with highs 17 to 20 C. The winds will start out southeast 50 to 80 km/hr by mid-day, 70-110 km/hr near the west coast, and possibly higher (to 130 km/hr) on exposed islands and headlands. Over the near Atlantic winds will be force 10 to 12 southerly. Large waves and swells are anticipated with some coastal flooding possible at times near high tides.

TONIGHT will remain quite windy in the west, with outbreaks of heavy rain in Donegal and some parts of north Connacht, into central Ulster and eventually north Leinster. 20-30 mm rain could fall with localized flooding in these areas. Temperatures will be steady 11 to 13 C except around 7 to 9 C in Ulster. With the low tracking inland, winds in these areas will back around from southeast to northeast 40 to 70 km/hr. Further south, occasional showers in blustery westerly winds likely. Some parts of the Connacht coast could see brief intervals of very strong winds to 120 or even 130 km/hr as the decaying remnants of Lorenzo move inland. Timing and exact location best left to a later forecast when the storm has made its final turn to land. Newport, Clifden, Connemara and Galway Bay are possible locations for these strong wind gusts. Sea states will remain quite high especially on the Atlantic coast.

The effects of the storm may be less conspicuous in some parts of the inland south, southeast and midlands. The range of possible outcomes would be between moderate southwest to west winds and showers, to storm force gusts and squally showers. This forecast will be updated this evening so check out the latest information.

FRIDAY will continue rather blustery in the morning hours with a calming trend by afternoon in most regions. A few remnant showers will move away by mid-day to leave partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 15 to 17 C.

SATURDAY will bring bands of light to moderate rain, 5-15 mm likely, followed by a partial clearing trend by afternoon. Winds will be southerly veering to westerly, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and the temperature range will be 8 to 16 C.

MONDAY will see further rain, strong southwest winds, and highs near 18 C.

The rest of next week looks unsettled but colder in stages, although further rain at times may bring in brief temperature rises to 14 C.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and a bit milder at 12-14 C.

An update will be issued late afternoon to early evening, or earlier if necessary.
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03-10-2019, 20:58   #5390
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Update _ Thursday 3 October, 2019 __ 9 p.m.
===============================

It appears that Lorenzo will be making that right turn over the next few hours and drifting into a landfall near Donegal Bay around 0300h. The storm will be weakening at a steady pace after midnight, so despite the closer approach to land the peak wind gusts on the northwest coast are likely to come around midnight, if in fact they increase much from current levels. Higher waves are likely to impact the coastline too as the zone with highest reported waves (from ocean buoys) appears to be 50 to 150 miles southeast of the cyclone's centre.

In general terms, the forecast remains unchanged. Expect moderate southwest to west winds in most areas overnight, with some stronger gusts near exposed western coasts. In Donegal and later in other parts of Ulster, winds will back from southeast to east then northeast in response to the track of weakening Lorenzo (expected to run roughly Sligo to Dublin late overnight and through Friday morning).

As the depression weakens rather rapidly, effects will moderate faster than any trend of strengthening due to reduced distance from the storm, so in most cases, it will appear to be weakening steadily even as it makes a closer approach to your location. However, there will be localized effects from what's left of the circulation, such as a brief period of moderate northerly winds behind the centre as it passes any given location. That might apply to the east coast by mid-morning although in its final stages, the once powerful storm becomes so weak that we would classify it as a frontal wave by the time it reaches south central England Friday afternoon. Around that time, most of the direction of winds over Ireland will jump over to the approaching Atlantic frontal system timed for Saturday late morning so that southerly winds will resume and Lorenzo's influence will be wiped out entirely at that point.

Some rather heavy rainfalls are now expected in Connacht and Ulster, 20 to 40 mm possibly. The combination of this with prolonged moderate winds and saturated soils will probably result in some trees falling (onto power lines or across roads in the dark in some cases) so be aware of those hazards if driving anywhere overnight. This may be more of an issue than might be expected from the wind speeds alone.
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04-10-2019, 07:11   #5391
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Friday, 4 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, highs near 15 C and lows near 5 C.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, totals of 40-50 mm can be expected.
-- Sunshine will average near normal, or about 3 hours per day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue rather blustery with a moderating trend by late morning in the western counties, and by afternoon in the east where a peak in wind speeds will arrive just before mid-day, as a decaying Lorenzo plods across the country, having made a landfall recently near Donegal Bay. Some intervals of rain will continue, adding 10-15 mm rainfall to totals already received, and this may lead to some spot flooding. Watch for debris on roads in western counties from both flooding and wind or coastal inundation. ... Winds will become westerly at about 50 to 70 km/hr in Leinster and the midlands, and ease from 70-110 km/hr in the west to similar speeds (50-70). Then this afternoon there will be further moderation in wind speeds with some clearing and sunny breaks setting in. Highs will be around 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will have some clear intervals for a while, then increasing cloud and strengthening southerly winds reaching 60-90 km/hr by morning. Temperatures may fall for a while then rise after midnight, in the range of 6 to 10 C. Rain by morning in western and central counties.

SATURDAY will see the band of rain, 10-15 mm for most, moving rapidly east followed by partial clearing, and winds easing to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and breezy, becoming windy late in the day near Atlantic coasts, with rain by evening. Lows 1-4 C and highs about 16 C.

MONDAY will be windy with rain at times, 10 to 15 mm likely, and highs near 17 C.

The rest of next week will be blustery, rather cool at times, with rain or showers most days, and highs in the 13 to 16 C range. The following week (into mid-October) looks quite chilly at this distance.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast but dry, with highs around 10 C.
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05-10-2019, 06:44   #5392
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Saturday, 5 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which are around 15 for maximum, 5 for minimum).
-- Rainfall will average near normal values (about 30 mm in total for most places).
-- Sunshine will average within 25% of normal values also (about 3-4 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a band of rain moving gradually east across the country, with 10-15 mm potential rainfalls. Winds moderate southerly 50 to 70 km/hr with the rain will veer more to westerly later, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 13 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with moderate westerly breezes and lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times, with isolated and brief showers possible mostly near Atlantic coasts and hills. Moderate southwest winds will continue, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY will be a rather breezy and mild day with outbreaks of light rain from early morning to mid-day, some hill fog at times, and after lows near 12 C, highs of 16 to 18 degrees. Winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed areas. Partial clearing will spread in from the west during the afternoon leading to some late afternoon sunshine.

TUESDAY will be blustery and a bit cooler with passing showers, winds west-southwest at 50 to 70 km/hr, and after lows near 8 C, highs will reach about 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain mainly in northern counties, moderate westerly winds, and a temperature range from lows near 7 C to highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy with a few showers, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will bring intervals of rain and temperatures steady 12 to 15 C.

The outlook calls for rather cool (11-14 C) and unsettled weather the following weekend (12th-13th) with some risk of strong winds and heavy rainfalls developing from a strong Atlantic low around Sunday 13th or Monday 14th. After that it could turn rather cold for about a week (8-12 C) as the upper level flow becomes increasingly northerly in direction.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a few breaks and passing spotty showers, only trace accumulations, with highs around 10 C. The recent snow can still be seen on nearby hills but has slowly retreated back up to around 1200 meters now.
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05-10-2019, 06:44   #5393
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Saturday, 5 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which are around 15 for maximum, 5 for minimum).
-- Rainfall will average near normal values (about 30 mm in total for most places).
-- Sunshine will average within 25% of normal values also (about 3-4 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a band of rain moving gradually east across the country, with 10-15 mm potential rainfalls. Winds moderate southerly 50 to 70 km/hr with the rain will veer more to westerly later, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 13 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with moderate westerly breezes and lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times, with isolated and brief showers possible mostly near Atlantic coasts and hills. Moderate southwest winds will continue, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY will be a rather breezy and mild day with outbreaks of light rain from early morning to mid-day, some hill fog at times, and after lows near 12 C, highs of 16 to 18 degrees. Winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed areas. Partial clearing will spread in from the west during the afternoon leading to some late afternoon sunshine.

TUESDAY will be blustery and a bit cooler with passing showers, winds west-southwest at 50 to 70 km/hr, and after lows near 8 C, highs will reach about 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain mainly in northern counties, moderate westerly winds, and a temperature range from lows near 7 C to highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy with a few showers, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will bring intervals of rain and temperatures steady 12 to 15 C.

The outlook calls for rather cool (11-14 C) and unsettled weather the following weekend (12th-13th) with some risk of strong winds and heavy rainfalls developing from a strong Atlantic low around Sunday 13th or Monday 14th. After that it could turn rather cold for about a week (8-12 C) as the upper level flow becomes increasingly northerly in direction.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a few breaks and passing spotty showers, only trace accumulations, with highs around 10 C. The recent snow can still be seen on nearby hills but has slowly retreated back up to around 1200 meters now.
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06-10-2019, 06:55   #5394
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Sunday, 6 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 degree above normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be dry in most places and partly cloudy with a few isolated showers near northern coasts and hills. Moderate southwest winds may strengthen towards late afternoon as rain approaches the west coast. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be wet and windy, southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, and 10-20 mm rainfalls with some heavy bursts in western counties around midnight, reaching eastern counties before dawn. Lows will be 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY will see the rain clearing eastward and there could be some decent sunny breaks in many areas, with brief but locally intense showers with hail and some thunder possible. Winds will continue southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY will be blustery and a little cooler with more frequent showers and some steady downpours in parts of the north and west at times. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C. Winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr

WEDNESDAY will also be rather windy with passing showers, or intervals of light rain, winds west-southwest around 70 km/hr at times. Lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, and heavier rain by evening. Less windy, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY looks quite wet especially across the south, but with a gradual clearing trend by afternoon and evening. Lows near 7 C and highs again near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... It is likely to be rather unsettled next weekend and into the first part of the following week with temperatures a bit lower than this week, around 12-15 C. There is some chance of a heavy rain and strong wind event around the middle of the week.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy but with a few nice sunny breaks, after some mid-day heavy showers as a weak front drifted through the region. It was rather cool with highs only around 9 C.
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07-10-2019, 07:42   #5395
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Monday, 7 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will be about 25% above normal in the west, but somewhat below normal in the southeast. Most other parts of the country will end up close to average.
-- Sunshine will amount to 75% of normal values or about 2-3 hours a day.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, and it should stay fairly dry once the last of the light drizzly rain ends over Leinster this morning. There could be some isolated showers mainly in the north. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will become overcast with occasional rain, as the southwest winds continue in the 40 to 60 km/hr range. Lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will be rather blustery and a bit cooler with more widespread showers and chance of a thunderstorm, highs 14 to 16 C. Winds will be somewhat more westerly at times, 50 to 70 km/hr. Total rainfalls 5 to 10 mm for most, 10 to 20 mm in parts of Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY will also be breezy and unsettled with slightly higher temperatures reaching 15 to 18 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, but a heavier band will develop late in the day lasting overnight. Highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will start out wet with gradual improvements later in the day, highs near 15 C.

The outlook is basically more of the same, trends remain about normal for mid-October if perhaps slightly cooler than this week, and there will continue to be rather frequent rain, generally showery but sometimes heavy in Connacht and west Ulster.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a high near 14 C. We are now overcast and expecting some light rain that will probably turn to snow Monday night here giving another coating of 2 to 5 cms, then quite a cold spell for this early in the season will follow. Meanwhile, there is some chance of tropical storm development east of Bermuda, and an associated coastal low developing east of Virginia, but these systems are more likely to stay in the western Atlantic than move anywhere close to Ireland.
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08-10-2019, 07:39   #5396
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Tuesday, 8 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 October

-- Temperatures will average near normal values (14-16 C max, 4-6 C min).
-- Rainfall will be somewhat higher than average in most areas; about 30-40 mm can be expected in total.
-- Sunshine will average reasonably close to average with partly cloudy to overcast skies quite normal at this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see an increase in cloud followed by outbreaks of squally showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, and blustery southwest winds increasing to 60 to 90 km/hr in some places. Rather cool with highs 13 to 16 C. About 5 to 15 mm of rain can be expected.

TONIGHT will continue blustery and cool with passing showers or intervals of light rain, lows near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will be breezy and it may feel a bit warmer by afternoon at least in the south, as highs reach 14 to 17 C. Some showers will occur but there will be some longer dry intervals too.

THURSDAY will bring increasing cloud and outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times by late in the day. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY will start out with rain then a partly cloudy afternoon will follow, with temperatures in a similar range (7 to 15 C).

SATURDAY will be breezy with temperatures near normal and some scattered showers, although some longer dry intervals may develop. Highs will be 15 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy with rain at times becoming heavy again by evening. Highs near 15 C.

The outlook for next week is unsettled, rather wet at first, then as it turns colder by mid-week, not as wet but still on the showery side. Highs during the week will likely trend down from mid-teens to around 10 C.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and mostly dry but with the odd patch of drizzle or light rain. The high was about 13 C. A strong cold front is moving into the area now and we're expecting rain followed by snow, about 2-5 cms on the ground by morning, and clearing with strong north winds, a real shot of wintry arctic air that is rather unusual on this side of the Rockies (and Selkirks, this had to cross two mountain ranges to escape its more normal confines of the prairies).
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09-10-2019, 07:45   #5397
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Wednesday, 9 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values (14-16 C max, 4-6 C min).
-- Rainfall will be somewhat higher than average in most areas; about 30-45 mm can be expected in total.
-- Sunshine will average reasonably close to average with partly cloudy to overcast skies quite normal at this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and it may feel a bit warmer by afternoon at least in the south, as highs reach 14 to 17 C. Some showers will occur but there will be some dry intervals with occasional sunny breaks. Winds west-southwest 50 to 70 km/hr should ease somewhat by later parts of the afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and showers will tend to die out, resuming towards morning. Lows 3 to 7 C.

THURSDAY will bring increasing cloud and outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times by late in the day. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY will start out with rain then a partly cloudy afternoon will follow, with temperatures in a similar range (7 to 15 C).

SATURDAY will start out with some dry and partly cloudy conditions with a rather cool start to the day (morning lows 2 to 6 C), then it will turn more cloudy with rain spreading in from the south, and present indications are that it may stay rather chilly with highs of 13 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy with rain at times in the morning, with some 15 to 25 mm amounts possible. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

The outlook is for unsettled weather to continue next week, with temperatures just a degree or two lower than this week, which one might expect with the gradually falling normal trend curve. There are some faint signs of a more settled period at some point before the month ends as high pressure seems to be wanting to build up gradually in the central Atlantic, so the main question there will be whether that gets close enough to provide a settled interval or stays off to the southwest promoting more of this unsettled windy weather.

My local weather turned quite cold on Tuesday and there were a few snow flurries in the region, not much accumulation in town here but some slushy accumulations on higher ground nearby. The high was only about 4 C. We could fall to -5 C by Wednesday morning if skies clear up during the day. Brilliant fall colours now with the recent frosty nights and not much leaf fall yet. Meanwhile, after weeks of very warm summer-like weather that extended past the autumn equinox into October, the eastern regions of North America are turning more seasonable as an Atlantic storm circulates air in from the northeast, it's far enough offshore that not much rain is reaching land but cloud extends past the U.S. east coast now -- at Washington DC where they had a record high of 37 C last week, highs are settling into the 15-20 C range this week. Also of interest, a typhoon is going to approach Japan in a few days' time, there's a thread about that subject and potential impacts on sporting events elsewhere in the forum.
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10-10-2019, 07:32   #5398
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Thursday, 10 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average slightly below normal (by about 0.5 to 1.0 deg).
-- Rainfall will be near average; heavier rain appears to be heading for Britain though.
-- Sunshine will struggle to reach 80% of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, 10 to 15 mm possible. Highs near 14 C. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional light rain, lows near 7 C.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered outbreaks of light rain, highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY will be cooler with some intervals of partly cloudy skies and some patchy areas of light rain, more likely near the south coast. It will be less windy however. Lows near 2 C and highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, some areas of rain may be quite close to Munster but may remain offshore, further north there could be some isolated showers. Lows near 3 C and highs near 13 C.

MONDAY will bring some outbreaks of rain, while heavy rain moves north into Britain. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

The outlook for the rest of next week calls for unsettled and cool weather with some moderate west to northwest winds at times, highs generally in the 10 to 13 C range.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy in the morning to sunny by afternoon, and quite cold, with a high around 3 C. Clear and frosty outside now at 11:30 p.m., and several dry days ahead but only a slight warming trend.
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11-10-2019, 07:35   #5399
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Friday, 11 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 October 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values which are highs around 15 C and lows around 5 C.
-- Rainfalls will average fairly close to normal as well, 30 to 45 mm can be expected in total.
-- Sunshine will have enough chances to make an appearance to rack up the usual 3 hours a day for mid-October.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny intervals, moderate southwest to west winds, and passing showers feeding in from the Atlantic, not necessarily making it all that far across the country so perhaps 2-5 mm rainfalls in the west and (not counting what already fell) 1-3 mm in the east. Any lingering rain in the southeast should be moving out soon. Highs 11 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will feature some clear intervals and a good view of the nearly full moon. Rather chilly with lows 2 to 5 C.

SATURDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, but with a trend to increasing cloudiness especially in southern and western counties, where some outbreaks of rain could begin by late afternoon. Highs 10 to 14 C.

SUNDAY will be rather cloudy and becoming misty over higher terrain as light to moderate rain begins to spread slowly inland from coasts. Lows will be 1 to 5 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

MONDAY will have some wet intervals at first, moderate northerly winds will develop as low pressure deepens over Britain bringing them some heavier rain, while Ireland slowly clears from the west with highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY will become rather windy from a southerly direction and there will be some heavy showers along a front expected to move steadily east, with temperatures near 13 C.

The rest of next week looks a bit colder still, with highs only around 10 or 11 C, and outbreaks of rain. There is nothing but unsettled and rather chilly weather on the charts for several weeks and even colder weather could set in at some point late in the month.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with cold temperatures that started out around -5 C and reached perhaps 4 C at peak before dropping back below freezing at sunset. This cold air is feeding into a developing storm over the plains states that will bring a heavy wet snowfall to the Dakotas and Manitoba, while pumping up some relatively warm air into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
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12-10-2019, 07:36   #5400
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Saturday, 12 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 October 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will also be fairly close to a normal weekly total, Tuesday looks to be a fairly wet day with most of that rain then.
-- Sunshine may get enough opportunities to edge up towards normal as well.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some sunny intervals in the east, increasing cloud central and scattered showers, one or two with thunder or hail briefly, in the west. Those showers will tend to die out but more will follow and some of them will make it most if not all of the way across the country during the afternoon. There will also be some patchy light rain edging onto the south coast later in the day. Rather cool, with highs around 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will have some clear intervals in parts of the midlands and east, rather cloudy elsewhere, lows 2 to 5 C.

SUNDAY will bring variable cloud and scattered outbreaks of light rain, about 2 to 5 mm for most. Highs 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY could have a spell of heavier rain in the southeast as part of a disturbance moving through Britain bringing some heavy rainfalls there at times Sunday into Monday. Further west and north, skies may be brighter and showers less widespread. Lows near 4 C and highs around 13 C.

TUESDAY will see increasingly strong southerly winds reaching 70-100 km/hr at times, with periods of rain becoming heavy near the end of the day, 10-20 mm likely. Lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and blustery with passing showers, some with hail or thunder, and westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue rather cool and unsettled in a west to northwest wind of 40 to 60 km/hr, highs both days 11 to 13 C.

More active weather systems are due around the weekend of the 19th-20th and into the early part of the following week, but there may be a short break in all this disturbed weather later that week with higher pressure, possibly rather cold with that too.

My local weather on Friday was very nice, although cold, the sun felt warm enough with light winds, and the high was about 8 C.

Typhoon Hagibis is bearing down on the Tokyo-Yokohama region from the southwest (they are eight hours ahead of Irish time so the core of the storm will be near Tokyo by about 7 to 9 p.m. local time). It appears to be steadily weakening from its earlier cat-2 intensity and might be only a tropical storm by the time it crosses a small part of southeast Honshu tonight local time, and it should be long gone by Sunday in their time zone, whether that means disruptions to the rugby (Scotland v Japan) or not remains to be seen. Over half of the rain expected to fall with this event has already happened and as Hagibis collides with a frontal boundary, most of the rain will be north of that boundary as is already evident on radar. The Irish match is far outside the zone affected by this storm, moderate northerly winds and temperatures around 16 C are prevailing over western Japan with partly cloudy to sunny skies both days this weekend there. I've heard some dire predictions about this storm and I hope they don't happen, but with these systems, it's mostly a risk of river flooding and storm surges, rather than wind strength. In the hilly terrain of that region, flash flooding can be a very destructive outcome due to mudslides blocking rivers then releasing large quantities of water. This has happened several times recently in Taiwan as well.
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