General Election Louth Constituency

is_that_so · 12-01-2020 7:22pm #1

Louth is a five seater and stretches from the border down to and including parts of Meath down to Laytown.

Current TDs

Gerry Adams SF
Fergus O' Dowd FG
Imelda Munster- SF
Peter Fitzpatrick FG
Declan Breathnach FF

Conventional wisdom on the constituency is that there is a Dundalk and a Drogheda TD. Another feature is that it requires careful vote management to get 2 seats. The two points of interest here are the retirement of Adams and the departure of Fitzpatrick from FG. On the basis of that O'Dowd and Breathnach should be returned and the interest will be in the final three seats.

FG have selected Cllr John McGahon as a running mate and he will go head to head against Fitzpatrick in Dundalk and clearly after the the young vote at under 30. He is is under a bit of a cloud with a court case still pending for assault AFAIK.

FF have gone for Anthony Moore, who's based in the South Louth/East Meath, to run alongside Breathnach.

Finally SF have gone for Dundalk man Cllr Ruairi O'Murchu to replace Adams.

Add in the usual run from the ever-present Green Mark Deary and of course Ged Nash with some likely indos/PBP and that's runners and riders.

The outcome is likely to leave most seats unchanged assuming the vote management is done properly.

O'Dowd, Breathnach and probably Munster (as the incumbent) should be returned. FG would feel confident of getting the second TD, given the support Fitzpatrick has needed. I don't believe Fitzpatrick as an independent can get re-elected as it's really a FG vote and it was O'Dowd vote managemnt that saw him elected twice.

As SF don't have that personal Adams vote their vote management will be absolutely crucial and they may clinch that fourth/last seat.

So FF 1, FG 1, SF 1 and SF/FF/Lab/FG fighting for those final two seats. My feeling at this point is no change in seats for parties so FG & SF for those seats but who knows how FF/Lab will fare in that battle.

Pighead · 13-01-2020 11:10am

Is there a full list of candidates available anywhere yet?

Salary Negotiator · 13-01-2020 11:19am

It's not a very inspiring group of candidates.

McGahon is being very active in my area in the last few months, while he hasn't knocked on my door I have seen him a few times delivering leaflets at the weekends. He's also had some leaflets delivered with the Dundalk Advertiser.

I wouldn't like to see him get in, I don't think he's done anything of note on the council and if he wasn't a McGahon he wouldn't be on the ticket.

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 11:22am

Pighead wrote: »

Is there a full list of candidates available anywhere yet?

Louthcoco site will eventually have it, Check out Adrian Kavanagh for now as most parties have already selected people.

https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 11:24am

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

It's not a very inspiring group of candidates.

McGahon is being very active in my area in the last few months, while he hasn't knocked on my door I have seen him a few times delivering leaflets at the weekends. He's also had some leaflets delivered with the Dundalk Advertiser.

I wouldn't like to see him get in, I don't think he's done anything of note on the council and if he wasn't a McGahon he wouldn't be on the ticket.

Don't know him but he seems to have a bit more life to him than Fitzpatrick. Whoever they pick is in with a decent chance as O'Dowd is a good reliable vote getter and their vote management has been very sharp.

Salary Negotiator · 13-01-2020 11:32am

is_that_so wrote: »

Don't know him but he seems to have a bit more life to him than Fitzpatrick. Whoever they pick is in with a decent chance as O'Dowd is a good reliable vote getter and their vote management has been very sharp.

He has good coaching behind him.

tayto lover · 13-01-2020 11:44am

Fitzer will have a lot of backing from the GAA and athletics people.
He is now the County Chairman of the GAA and also a big charity run organizer.

Mc Gahon seems like a bit of a loose cannon but will get the FG vote in north Louth no doubt. Always gives the impression of being busy however I don’t see much of anything about him.

O’ Morchu will do alright but the SF vote, in Dundalk anyway, is not what it used to be imo. He will struggle.

Breathnach should easily make it as will O’Dowda and Munster in south Louth.

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 12:03pm

tayto lover wrote: »

Fitzer will have a lot of backing from the GAA and athletics people.
He is now the County Chairman of the GAA and also a big charity run organizer.

Mc Gahon seems like a bit of a loose cannon but will get the FG vote in north Louth no doubt. Always gives the impression of being busy however I don’t see much of anything about him.

O’ Morchu will do alright but the SF vote, in Dundalk anyway, is not what it used to be imo. He will struggle.

Breathnach should easily make it as will O’Dowda and Munster in south Louth.

Fitzer always struggled to get in and a lot of his vote would be a FG vote, which will go back to them. He may even help with transfers.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 13-01-2020 12:29pm

Fitzer hasn't a snowball's chance. it's a safe Dundalk FG seat. He's deluding himself.

tayto lover · 13-01-2020 12:54pm

Arya Fresh Plantation wrote: »

Fitter hasn't a snowball's chance. it's a safe Dundalk FG seat. He's deluding himself.

Maybe but many FG voters, I’m not one, are unhappy with the antics of McG.
They are the law and order party after all.

PGE1970 · 13-01-2020 1:34pm

I think Ged Nash has a real chance of getting back in.

Adams gone could affect the SF vote and Munster rode in on his coat tails previously. I'm not sure that she is highly thought of in Drogheda so she might struggle. O'Dowd will get back in but the other Drogheda candidate, Anthony Moore, doesnt have a huge profile either.

Ged is well liked and is a hard worker. He'll barely get a vote north of Monasterboice but might have enough support in Drogheda to make the last seat.

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 1:49pm

PGE1970 wrote: »

I think Ged Nash has a real chance of getting back in.

Adams gone could affect the SF vote and Munster rode in on his coat tails previously. I'm not sure that she is highly thought of in Drogheda so she might struggle. O'Dowd will get back in but the other Drogheda candidate, Anthony Moore, doesnt have a huge profile either.

Ged is well liked and is a hard worker. He'll barely get a vote north of Monasterboice but might have enough support in Drogheda to make the last seat.

It was a good run for PBP that kept Nash out the last time. I'd agree with the rest of it. My OP suggests 2 SF but really think it will be FG 2, FF 1, SF 1 and Lab 1.

is_that_so · 13-01-2020 1:52pm

Arya Fresh Plantation wrote: »

Fitzer hasn't a snowball's chance. it's a safe Dundalk FG seat. He's deluding himself.

Yeah. In 2011 apparently O'Dowd spent the last two weeks encouraging people to vote number 1 for him. In 2016 his transfers pulled him over the line, barely.

PGE1970 · 13-01-2020 2:12pm

is_that_so wrote: »

It was a good run for PBP that kept Nash out the last time. I'd agree with the rest of it. My OP suggests 2 SF but really think it will be FG 2, FF 1, SF 1 and Lab 1.

Its hard to disagree with that. I think SF need to be careful. If one seat is their more likely outcome (not that they will acknowledge this), they could cannibalise their own vote with their two candidates.

Michelle Hall did very well in the local elections for Labour in Termonfeckin/Clogherhead and will campaign well for Ged Nash.

I agree that O'Dowd and Breathnach are likely shoe-ins. I think a second FG seat is likely in Dundalk. The rest will be a dog-fight!

10green bottles · 13-01-2020 11:14pm

Anyone think that in light of the recent upsurge criminal behaviour in the Drogheda area that law and order and party policies connected
to it could become a BIG issue in an upcoming election?

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 13-01-2020 11:17pm

10green bottles wrote: »

Anyone think that in light of the recent upsurge criminal behaviour in the Drogheda area that law and order and party policies connected
to it could become a BIG issue in an upcoming election?

Maybe in Drogheda but nowhere further afield.

10green bottles · 13-01-2020 11:31pm

Arya Fresh Plantation wrote: »

Maybe in Drogheda but nowhere further afield.

Bet someone runs sorely on that ticket.(In Drogheda)

Also believe that people here are under estimating the support that Ruairí Ó Murchú has in Dundalk and North Louth.( &South to Castlebellingham)
SF defo got a kick in the last locals but i reckon they can pull the losses back in a GE.

event · 14-01-2020 12:20am

2SF
2FG
1FF

Thats me estimate on it but wouldn't be surprised to see 2FF with FG losing 1

Lord TSC · 14-01-2020 5:43pm

I get depressed with the options.

I feel as if FG hate me, as a young man living outside of Dublin. In their 8 years, I feel they've done a lot to make my life as difficult as possible.

I acknowledge that FF started that issue with their mismanagement.

In previous years, this drove me towards Sinn Fein, but if I'm honest, I've no real belief in them to actually do anything significant. And for similar reason, I hate voting independent; most come across as loons. At a push, I might vote for a local one, but (again), I don't have much faith in any to actually enact change.

tayto lover · 14-01-2020 5:58pm

Lord TSC wrote: »

I get depressed with the options.

I feel as if FG hate me, as a young man living outside of Dublin. In their 8 years, I feel they've done a lot to make my life as difficult as possible.

I acknowledge that FF started that issue with their mismanagement.

In previous years, this drove me towards Sinn Fein, but if I'm honest, I've no real belief in them to actually do anything significant. And for similar reason, I hate voting independent; most come across as loons. At a push, I might vote for a local one, but (again), I don't have much faith in any to actually enact change.

Same here.
None of them fit for purpose. We have a very poor choice in Louth.

darklighter · 14-01-2020 6:15pm

There are 2 seats in Dundalk & 2 seats in Drogheda......the 5th seat would go to Drogheda as well if the Drogheda candidates get their messaging right with the East Meath vote, but due to party transfer strategy and the Dundalk folk having the brains not to vote for anyone from South Louth, will likely go to Dundalk again.

Party wise, Breathnach & O'Dowd (despite both being beyond useless) are more than likely safe for FF & FG. Adams going should be a big problem for SF, his name recognition was worth thousands of votes across the county, without that I think they'll struggle to return 2 seats. Of the 2 candidates, O'Murchu seems the most capable, as Munster has the useless trait that the 2 above have, but which one of them is ahead on first preferences will be key.

Nash should be in with a good chance, a protest vote cost him the last time out, but has been highly visible in comparison to the other candidates since then and Labour seemed to do well in the locals, and realistically, is probably the only chance the county has at a Cabinet Minister. Fitzer is the interesting one, will the GAA connection win him votes or will the FG vote go back to McGahon? Name recognition goes a long way in Irish politics! Deary may be a dark horse if the 'Green' Wave becomes a thing in Louth.

Early doors, im going for Breathnach, Dowd, O'Murchu, Nash & Fitzer…...which is an underwhelming lineup to say the least.

event · 15-01-2020 1:45pm

I cant see Fitzer getting in tbh. The Louth hospital, going against Abortion Ref so publically plus he wont have the might of a party to campaign behind him. He's in trouble IMO

ShiverinEskimo · 15-01-2020 2:18pm

event wrote: »

I cant see Fitzer getting in tbh. The Louth hospital, going against Abortion Ref so publically plus he wont have the might of a party to campaign behind him. He's in trouble IMO

Yep. His record on the abortion ref was badly out of touch with the local electorate. Should be suitably punished.

tayto lover · 15-01-2020 4:30pm

ShiverinEskimo wrote: »

Yep. His record on the abortion ref was badly out of touch with the local electorate. Should be suitably punished.

I don’t believe he’ll get in either.
He will have the might of the GAA people who will see him as a way to get grants and a county ground for Louth if he’s elected. Don’t know if there’s enough of them though. I can rarely understand a word he says when he’s on the local radio.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 15-01-2020 4:35pm

tayto lover wrote: »

I don’t believe he’ll get in either.
He will have the might of the GAA people who will see him as a way to get grants and a county ground for Louth if he’s elected. Don’t know if there’s enough of them though. I can rarely understand a word he says when he’s on the local radio.

He missed out on a grant only this week and GAA people aren't happy.

tayto lover · 15-01-2020 4:40pm

Arya Fresh Plantation wrote: »

He missed out on a grant only this week and GAA people aren't happy.

Won’t do him any good.
Has he a new office? Or is still the one beside the courthouse?

sibersha · 15-01-2020 8:54pm

It's very interesting to see how Fitzer will fare out. Paddy Power had him 5/6 to be reelected and 5/6 not to be reelected, so basically they had him at as a 50/50 chance for reelection. Seems to be some divided opinions on here also.

Losses the FG vote but will get some of the GAA and Athletics vote. Also, will he get pro-life votes?

joeysoap · 15-01-2020 9:17pm

As Darklighter posts a very poor lot of candidates. I drove through Drogheda firing the last election and nearly sure I saw a poster for Nash that read ‘a Drogheda TD for Drogheda’ not many votes north of Drogheda might be right!

IMO Fitzer will struggle. As will O’Murchu. Interesting to see who FF line up with Breathnach. If Maeve Yore runs as an independent she will shake up the vote ( nothing in Drogheda of course)

Breathnach, O’Dowd, Munster maybe O’ Murchu and the 5th is up for grabs.

Poor candidates in the whole ( Adams was no different)

White Horse · 15-01-2020 10:14pm

sibersha wrote: »

Losses the FG vote but will get some of the GAA and Athletics vote. Also, will he get pro-life votes?

FG will lose a lot of their pro-life voters to Fitzpatrick. Add in GAA votes, and he has a very good chance.

PGE1970 · 15-01-2020 10:50pm

So many Dundalk candidates will suit O'Dowd, Munster & Nash.

Breathnach, McGahon, O'Murchu, Fitzer, Deary and independents is a large pool to choose from.

is_that_so · 16-01-2020 10:57am

White Horse wrote: »

FG will lose a lot of their pro-life voters to Fitzpatrick. Add in GAA votes, and he has a very good chance.

He had to be helped over the line in both elections with excellent vote management. His vote was predominantly FG. He won't figure on his own and abortion is not an election issue.

General Election Louth Constituency

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