US Presidential Election 2020

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 27-02-2019 12:18pm

Has Bernie released his tax returns yet? I don't think they ever came out in the 2016 race, but perhaps that's not required until they get the actual nomination? Could see that being used by Trump supporters - yes ironic, but this hasn't seemed to bother or hurt them yet!

Quin_Dub · 27-02-2019 12:23pm

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Has Bernie released his tax returns yet? I don't think they ever came out in the 2016 race, but perhaps that's not required until they get the actual nomination? Could see that being used by Trump supporters - yes ironic, but this hasn't seemed to bother or hurt them yet!

Not yet , but just announced that he's about to.

Bernie Sanders is releasing 10 years of tax returns

WASHINGTON (AP) — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on Monday pledged to “sooner than later” make public 10 years of his tax returns and vowed to support the eventual Democratic presidential nominee, saying he held no grudges against the Democratic National Committee over his unsuccessful 2016 campaign.

Sanders appeared at a town hall hosted by CNN ahead of the official launch of his 2020 presidential campaign with events this weekend in Brooklyn, where he grew up, and Chicago, where he graduated from college. He joins a crowded field of nearly a dozen other contenders, including a number of fellow senators.

Asked Monday whether he would release a decade’s worth of his tax returns, as 2020 rival Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has already done, Sanders said that he would.

“Our tax returns will bore you to death, nothing special about them,” Sanders said, adding that his wife, Jane, does most of his taxes rather than using an accountant.

Sanders’ fellow contenders for the Democratic nomination have made similar pledges of transparency, in stark contrast with President Donald Trump, who has refused to release his tax returns, saying they are under audit. He is the only president in modern history to decline to do so.

During his first presidential bid, Sanders endured questioning by Hillary Clinton over why he had not released several years of his tax returns and had instead opted to release just his 2014 tax returns. Sanders said Monday that he would have released more of his tax returns had he been the Democratic nominee.

Manic Moran · 27-02-2019 5:29pm

Navarette just posted an interesting take on Beto I had not heard before.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/02/26/navarrette-10-reasons-im-not-feeling-the-love-for-beto-orourke-despite-the-beto-bots-who-deify-him/

rossie1977 · 28-02-2019 1:52pm

Biden not running would make Sanders red hot favourite even at this early stage. Nearly 30% of possible Biden voters indicated Sanders would be their second choice with Harris at 12%. Sanders would also get big boost from Warren and O'Rourke voters

nc6000 · 05-03-2019 4:44pm

Hillary Clinton has said she will not run for president in 2020, but has vowed she is "not going anywhere".

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/north-america/hillary-clinton-rules-out-2020-presidential-run-but-says-she-is-not-going-anywhere-37880051.html

Manic Moran · 05-03-2019 5:25pm

nc6000 wrote: »

Hillary Clinton has said she will not run for president in 2020, but has vowed she is "not going anywhere".

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/north-america/hillary-clinton-rules-out-2020-presidential-run-but-says-she-is-not-going-anywhere-37880051.html

Of course not. There are still more people to blame for her loss.
As of two days ago, she's adding the Supreme Court to that list.
https://news.yahoo.com/hillary-clinton-blames-gutting-of-voting-rights-act-041731027.html

eagle eye · 05-03-2019 5:27pm

She was an awful candidate. She has no charisma and she isn't a good speaker either.

nc6000 · 05-03-2019 5:48pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

Of course not. There are still more people to blame for her loss.
As of two days ago, she's adding the Supreme Court to that list.
https://news.yahoo.com/hillary-clinton-blames-gutting-of-voting-rights-act-041731027.html

Yes, not exactly a surprise but at least it's official now.

theguzman · 05-03-2019 6:42pm

Sanders V Trump would be an amazing race. I still maintain that if Sanders got the nod last time that he would be POTUS today. People held their noses and reluctantly voted for Trump rather than give Hillary the smell of a vote.

pixelburp · 05-03-2019 6:44pm

Jon Podesta confirmed Clinton wasn't running back in January, but still good to hear it from the horse's mouth. Honestly I'd be surprised if anyone gave it even passing, serious credence.

eagle eye · 05-03-2019 8:38pm

Sanders will get 79 next year sometime. He has no hope against Trump imo.

I keep saying it, you need somebody in the 45-55 age group if you want to beat Trump. Look at the history of the age of Democratic Presidents.

Professor Moriarty · 05-03-2019 9:39pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Sanders will get 79 next year sometime. He has no hope against Trump imo.

I keep saying it, you need somebody in the 45-55 age group if you want to beat Trump. Look at the history of the age of Democratic Presidents.

I agree, Sanders is too old. Anyone under 65 would be fine and would make Trump look old, and bizarre considering his hair and fake tan, during debates.

Rjd2 · 06-03-2019 12:25am

Biden is not perfect, the hard left and the identity politics massive would not be keen, but he is a relatively safe bet v Trump. He is very popular still as polls show and he would pull plenty of moderates away from the GOP.

Those moderates who held their nose to vote Trump but abstained in the mid terms or voted Dem are the ones that would win Biden an election. I think Bernie beats Trump, but when the GOP war machine steps it up, could see some of those moderates been uneasy voting for Bernie compared to Biden.

The Warren campaign seems dead, dire numbers in NH,,,,,she could have been a huge contender if she had backed Bernie in 2016, but alas made the wrong call. Ah well.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 06-03-2019 12:30am

eagle eye wrote: »

Sanders will get 79 next year sometime. He has no hope against Trump imo.

I keep saying it, you need somebody in the 45-55 age group if you want to beat Trump. Look at the history of the age of Democratic Presidents.

It’s a bit old, yes but so isTrump. I’d worry about the dems tearing themselves apart.

pixelburp · 06-03-2019 7:49am

Rjd2 wrote: »

Biden is not perfect, the hard left and the identity politics massive would not be keen, but he is a relatively safe bet v Trump. He is very popular still as polls show and he would pull plenty of moderates away from the GOP.
[...]

Biden's popular because he's the most nationally recognised politician at this minute; Which tracks given the campaigns haven't even started yet and none of the candidates have got their name out there. I don't have the graph, but around 06 to 07, Obama wasn't anywhere near the top of the polls, given he was just some random senator from Illinois. You saw this steady slope upwards as he got more national press and favour. Were the original polls to be believed it would have been Clinton to run.

Joe Biden is very much as establishment as Clinton, and while probably has a touch more resting goodwill than she ever did, I don't think you have to stray too far to the hard left to find those unwilling to follow him. And if American politics truly wants to rescue itself from the gutter it should do more than have two gobby old men slagging each other on stage; it'd make for great viral TV, watching Biden wind up Trump, but the latter has already made politics divisive and noisy, no point adding kerosine to the fire here....

Brian? · 06-03-2019 12:02pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

Of course not. There are still more people to blame for her loss.
As of two days ago, she's adding the Supreme Court to that list.
https://news.yahoo.com/hillary-clinton-blames-gutting-of-voting-rights-act-041731027.html

She makes a fair point.

Brian? · 06-03-2019 12:08pm

pixelburp wrote: »

Biden's popular because he's the most nationally recognised politician at this minute; Which tracks given the campaigns haven't even started yet and none of the candidates have got their name out there. I don't have the graph, but around 06 to 07, Obama wasn't anywhere near the top of the polls, given he was just some random senator from Illinois. You saw this steady slope upwards as he got more national press and favour. Were the original polls to be believed it would have been Clinton to run.

Joe Biden is very much as establishment as Clinton, and while probably has a touch more resting goodwill than she ever did, I don't think you have to stray too far to the hard left to find those unwilling to follow him. And if American politics truly wants to rescue itself from the gutter it should do more than have two gobby old men slagging each other on stage; it'd make for great viral TV, watching Biden wind up Trump, but the latter has already made politics divisive and noisy, no point adding kerosine to the fire here....

I don’t remember an early front runner that took the nomination for either party, aside from Clinton last time out.

Biden would demolish Trump in debates. His ability to connect with common people and ability to actually be statesman like sometimes would make Trump look even more like a buffoon than he does now. I still think he’s too old though.

Unseating an incumbent is a huge ask at any time. George Bush 1 and Carter were universally unpopular and failed to energise their own bases. GB1 also had Nader to leech away votes. The Dems need someone young and energetic to do it.

flazio · 06-03-2019 12:14pm

The thing about Sanders is, he's not afraid to fight dirty. And the sad reality of society today is, if you want to beat Trump, you are going to have to get your hands dirty. If Barack Obama was a new candidate going into a race against Trump I reckon he'd get defeated quite easily.
Moral high ground isn't very popular right now.
It's a cruel place right now so I believe you're going to have to appeal to that.

eagle eye · 06-03-2019 7:41pm

Obama would beat Trump hands down all day, everyday.
You day you have to be able to fight dirty, that's one technique and historically the Democrats lose those battles. The other way is to maintain the higher ground and a young, energetic candidate with no skeletons can do that.
I keep mentioning the same guy all the time who isn't even in consideration but he has that about him. His name is Martin Heinrich, the other guy is Chris Murphy.
For me they are certain winners against Trump. Anybody else is a gamble I think.

4068ac1elhodqr · 07-03-2019 3:41am

As mentioned over on the AH UBI thread:

...Very interesting, a new emmerging favourite for POTUS 2020,
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner?selectionName=andrew-yang

Has just offered everyone (pending constitution alteration) in the US $1,000 per month
https://www.yang2020.com/policies/the-freedom-dividend/

A Universal Basic Income at this level would permanently grow the economy by 12.56 to 13.10 percent—or about $2.5 trillion by 2025—and it would increase the labor force by 4.5 to 4.7 million people.

The most direct and concrete way for the government to improve your life is to send you a check for $1,000 every month and let you spend it in whatever manner will benefit you the most. etc etc

If the Dems can't get Oprah, they can buy their POTUS with Mr Yang.
It's a wonder Trump didn't think of this, UBI trials are all the craze these days.

rossie1977 · 07-03-2019 9:49am

Trump did think of it but he gave the benefits to top 1%..

Not sure why Harris is second favourite with bookies given she has been drifting with Democrat registered voters.

Light blue line is hers and 14% is highest she has gotten so far shortly after announcing. Biden in green. Sanders black

Jamiekelly · 08-03-2019 2:24am

Misael Bewildered Sobriety wrote: »

As mentioned over on the AH UBI thread:

...Very interesting, a new emmerging favourite for POTUS 2020,
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner?selectionName=andrew-yang

Has just offered everyone (pending constitution alteration) in the US $1,000 per month
https://www.yang2020.com/policies/the-freedom-dividend/

If the Dems can't get Oprah, they can buy their POTUS with Mr Yang.
It's a wonder Trump didn't think of this, UBI trials are all the craze these days.

I just watched a few of his videos where he outlines his positions and quite honestly he's very impressive. I don't think he'll get close to the nomination this time around but he's definitely one to watch for 2024 and beyond. He calls it trickle up economics and he's smart enough to try and re-brand it as the "freedom dividend". I also like his policy on increasing corporation tax while cutting federal payroll tax.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-03-2019 3:38am

Jamiekelly wrote: »

I just watched a few of his videos where he outlines his positions and quite honestly he's very impressive. I don't think he'll get close to the nomination this time around but he's definitely one to watch for 2024 and beyond. He calls it trickle up economics and he's smart enough to try and re-brand it as the "freedom dividend". I also like his policy on increasing corporation tax while cutting federal payroll tax.

It sure is a brave offering to put on the table, +1,000 bucks per month for every single adult in the states, from a skid row cup shaker to wall street deal maker.

Bearing in mind there has only ever been small trails of UBI, nevermind talk of full 2020 (2022 more practically) rollout in the world's foremost superpower.

Small trails, up to now, are non-representative, really non real-world affairs, purgatory like, tick-box events.

Thus folks could debate for hours the outcome of this proposal and still get it wrong, effects could range from a hyper-inflation migration rush, to the US re-positioning itself firmly as the true land of milk n' honey, a place of golden endless dreams and opportunity.

08-03-2019 3:43am

flazio wrote: »

The thing about Sanders is, he's not afraid to fight dirty. And the sad reality of society today is, if you want to beat Trump, you are going to have to get your hands dirty. If Barack Obama was a new candidate going into a race against Trump I reckon he'd get defeated quite easily.
Moral high ground isn't very popular right now.
It's a cruel place right now so I believe you're going to have to appeal to that.

Sanders fights dirty? The same man who said he was sick of hearing about her emails?

He went exceptionally easy on Clinton compared to what literally any other candidate in the country would have done with the many different attack vectors left wide open to them.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-03-2019 4:01am

Yang is straight into the top 10 for POTUS, lets face it - offer anyone $1,000 pm (gtd, for 4yrs/onwards) just for ticking a box and you'll suddenly get some fans.

Yesterdays 101 is long gone, average 50/1 now, still some @67.
But... Dem nom however is still available 50/1.

Overheal · 09-03-2019 5:13am

Welp, I'm disappoint.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/people/2019/01/31/dwayne-johnson-not-ruling-out-future-presidential-run/2731032002/

The Rock is out. Boo.

rossie1977 · 09-03-2019 12:16pm

He will likely run one day but he is biggest movie star in the world with multiple TV shows running so he would be crazy to give up all that for something he has no experience in.

Rjd2 · 09-03-2019 8:53pm

Not going to copy and paste the whole article as its not really fair on the site who posted it and its frowned upon understandably by people who own the site.

Anyhow....as someone who has money on Harris from a few years ago at much bigger price than she is now, getting a little concerned. She is still betting fav to get the nomination, but unsure she can get the numbers to beat Bernie.

Bernie beats her with black voters atm, which is huge for him as Clinton smashed him with that demographic in 2016.

Biden will be formidable if he enters however though when you look at those numbers.

https://theintercept.com/2019/03/06/bernie-sanders-black-voters-2020/

THREE WEEKS AFTER launching his presidential campaign, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is leading all other announced candidates in support from black voters, a new poll finds. The only potential candidate who polled better with African-Americans than Sanders, according to the poll by Morning Consult, is former Vice President Joe Biden, who has not announced a campaign.

Despite a persistent notion that his supporters are disproportionately white male “bros,” the new survey suggests that Sanders is actually slightly more popular among black Democratic voters than white ones, indicating that the narrative that developed during the 2016 campaign may no longer hold, if it ever did.

Sanders’s support among black voters, at 28 percent, puts him in second place among that demographic, behind Biden, at 32 percent. He trailed Biden 31-25 among whites.

Rjd2 · 09-03-2019 8:57pm

Yang wont win, but his campaign seems pretty exciting so far. The right focus a lot on immigration and the left climate change, but think both sides at times are weak when it comes to the automation revolution coming in the next few years. He'd be very interesting on the debate stage as would Tulsi who has been excellent on USAs overseas interventionist bollocks.

Sadly though Tulsi does not seem to have any of the momentum Yang has.

4068ac1elhodqr · 09-03-2019 9:08pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

Yang wont win, but his campaign seems pretty exciting so far.

Somewhat agree, it's still a brave, unique and interesting offer all the same. And a tastey offer, $1,000 bucks (per month) in the wallet, for nothing.

Bernie is doing well with the trending, he's got a fresh 4yr batch of millennials to entertain, all keen on the ideals of universal health, equality, wages etc but at the same time not keen paying taxes for all this.

Beto is another wild card, maybe they need a 3+party race to make things more interesting across the great divide.

US Presidential Election 2020

Comments