GE2020 - Dun Laoghaire (4 seater)

Agent Smith · 22-01-2020 8:28pm

coylemj wrote: »

Official list of candidates for the Dail constituency of Dun Laoghaire ....

https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/97-nominated-candidates-2020-dun-laoghaire

Con Óg Ó Laoghaire Added to the poll

Richard Hillman · 22-01-2020 8:34pm

RBB is a lock and will probably top the first round poll. The rest of the vote is too fractious. Sinn Fein will see increases.

I will be voting Con Óg Ó Laoghaire - Irish Freedom Party. He was added to the poll after I voted.

It will be
1 FF
1 FG
1 GP
1 PBP

coylemj · 22-01-2020 11:23pm

Richard Hillman wrote: »

RBB is a lock and will probably top the first round poll.

Not a chance. Ossian Smyth will head the poll. A Green candidate was elected on the first count in every area in the local election.

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Sinn Fein will see increases.

That won't be difficult, based on their abysmal showing in the local election.

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I will be voting Con Óg Ó Laoghaire - Irish Freedom Party. He was added to the poll after I voted.

You have two votes?

Larbre34 · 22-01-2020 11:58pm

I expect Cormac Devlin to top the poll without reaching the quota, rather than the competent but not compelling Ossian Smyth, but I agree with 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Grn, 1 PBP

Agent Smith · 23-01-2020 11:05am

Larbre34 wrote: »

I expect Cormac Devlin to top the poll without reaching the quota, rather than the competent but not compelling Ossian Smyth, but I agree with 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Grn, 1 PBP

I'm not so sure, I think (based on the locals) the green's look to top the poll,

I'd also think Cormac will suffer because his support of the 8th Amendment
Considering Dun laoghagire was the second highest voting area for Repeal. The Anti Choice vote can be split between Aontú, ACI, FF and the IFP

coylemj · 23-01-2020 1:43pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

I expect Cormac Devlin to top the poll without reaching the quota...........

In 2016 he got less than half the first preferences of MMOC and Bailey and he was well behind his FF running mate Mary Hanafin. What has changed in the meantime?

https://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=113

scrumqueen · 23-01-2020 2:54pm

coylemj wrote: »

In 2016 he got less than half the first preferences of MMOC and Bailey and he was well behind his FF running mate Mary Hanafin. What has changed in the meantime?

https://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=113

She made out very well in locals so it could go either way TBH but she has previous outings as a TD on her side so she's more of a known quantity to voters I guess.

Larbre34 · 23-01-2020 3:44pm

coylemj wrote: »

In 2016 he got less than half the first preferences of MMOC and Bailey and he was well behind his FF running mate Mary Hanafin. What has changed in the meantime?

https://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=113

Profile, profile, profile.

There is a tangible generation change across the Nation, not to mind Hanafin's association with the FF led crash and ultra conservative past.

Hanafin has never gone near a house outside the Mount Merrion Avenue square mile, but Devlin has a good standard social media campaign and is rarely home so often does he turn up at things. He had an effective year as Cathaoirleach of DLR since the last election and is widely recognised. Can anyone say they have seen Hanafin since the trigger was pulled on this poll 10 days ago?

She's only there to make up numbers, Devlin is the future and in this highly liberal constituency, he will be returned.

scrumqueen · 23-01-2020 3:48pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Profile, profile, profile.

There is a tangible generation change across the Nation, not to mind Hanafin's association with the FF led crash and ultra conservative past.

Hanafin has never gone near a house outside the Mount Merrion Avenue square mile, but Devlin has a good standard social media campaign and is rarely home so often does he turn up at things. He had an effective year as Cathaoirleach of DLR since the last election and is widely recognised. Can anyone say they have seen Hanafin since the trigger was pulled on this poll 10 days ago?

She's only there to make up numbers, Devlin is the future and in this highly liberal constituency, he will be returned.

Hanafin was at Blackrock dart this morning, didn't have the appetite to be grilling her so kept going.

coylemj · 23-01-2020 6:08pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

.... Devlin is the future and in this highly liberal constituency, he will be returned.

You're suggesting that he's a good fit for 'this highly liberal constituency?'

Funny, then, that he was against removing the 8th amendment......

https://prolifecampaign.ie/main/dun-laoghaire-use-your-vote-to-protect-human-life/

He didn't even want a referendum held in the first place .....

http://ecouncil.dlrcoco.ie:9071/ieIssueDetails.aspx?IId=37706&PlanId=0&Opt=3

Despite his efforts, when we did get to vote on the subject, 77% of the votes in DL were in favour of removing the 8th amendment. I find it remarkable that FF is running two candidates who were in favour of retention. Both of them are clearly out of tune with their constituents.

Larbre34 · 23-01-2020 8:59pm

On one issue, one that is settled. Neither had a vote in the matter of holding the referendum.

As liberal as DL is, it still has FF and FG votes, because its traditional Labour movement is so poor locally these days. So, 1 PBP 1 Grn and space for one FF and one FG, as I've said I think it will be Devlin over Hanafin.

coylemj · 23-01-2020 11:13pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

On one issue, one that is settled. Neither had a vote in the matter of holding the referendum.

So why didn't he abstain?

By voting against the motion (to hold a referendum to repeal the 8th) he was effectively saying that he wanted that wording to remain in the constitution and that the electorate should be denied the option to remove it. Which they eventually did, by a margin of 77% to 23% in Dun Laoghaire.

But you still claim that: 'Devlin is the future and in this highly liberal constituency, he will be returned.' If he's the future then God help us!

Agent Smith · 24-01-2020 1:45am

Larbre34 wrote: »

On one issue, one that is settled. Neither had a vote in the matter of holding the referendum.

As liberal as DL is, it still has FF and FG votes, because its traditional Labour movement is so poor locally these days. So, 1 PBP 1 Grn and space for one FF and one FG, as I've said I think it will be Devlin over Hanafin.

The 3 FG candidates were in favor of Marriage Equality and Repeal, Kinda hard to Lump them in with the 2 FF candidates who opposed Repeal and The 1 (Hanafin) who opposed Marriage Equality

Larbre34 · 24-01-2020 3:52pm

That motion before the Council was well in advance of the shape of what Repeal of the Eighth would look like and would be replaced by. It was proposed by PBP as a stunt at the time, with everyone knowing full well that they could have passed a motion to paint the sky green and it would have mattered as little.

Personally I favoured the referendum when it came and voted 'Yes' but theres an odd feeling on the Boards threads around the election that all parties and indeed individuals ought be defined entirely by their actions around The 8th, going so far as to paint Aontú as a right-wing Party just because of their conservative stance on this matter, when they clearly are socialist in nature.

L1011 · 25-01-2020 7:10pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

going so far as to paint Aontú as a right-wing Party just because of their conservative stance on this matter, when they clearly are socialist in nature.

Aontu are picking up many right-wing members as its the only anti-choice political vehicle with elected representatives and any chance of more.

Look at what happened to Renua in terms of Catholic right wing entryism (although obviously they were centre right anyway) and expect it all to happen again.

Larbre34 · 26-01-2020 1:03pm

L1011 wrote: »

Aontu are picking up many right-wing members as its the only anti-choice political vehicle with elected representatives and any chance of more.

No doubt, but thats an existential problem for themselves and their ideology.

Edgware · 28-01-2020 12:51pm

coylemj wrote: »

You're suggesting that he's a good fit for 'this highly liberal constituency?'

Funny, then, that he was against removing the 8th amendment......

https://prolifecampaign.ie/main/dun-laoghaire-use-your-vote-to-protect-human-life/

He didn't even want a referendum held in the first place .....

http://ecouncil.dlrcoco.ie:9071/ieIssueDetails.aspx?IId=37706&PlanId=0&Opt=3

Despite his efforts, when we did get to vote on the subject, 77% of the votes in DL were in favour of removing the 8th amendment. I find it remarkable that FF is running two candidates who were in favour of retention. Both of them are clearly out of tune with their constituents.

On those figures not with 23% which is enough to get over the line. Or maybe there is no room in Kingstown for someone wih a different opinion

frash · 28-01-2020 12:56pm

Edgware wrote: »

On those figures not with 23% which is enough to get over the line. Or maybe there is no room in Kingstown for someone wih a different opinion

:eek:

scrumqueen · 28-01-2020 12:58pm

RBB coming off very well from feedback around the place on last nights Leaders Debate on CB Live.

I wonder will it be enough to keep his seat. I see Paddy Power have him down as a dead cert.

coylemj · 28-01-2020 2:45pm

Edgware wrote: »

On those figures not with 23% which is enough to get over the line. Or maybe there is no room in Kingstown for someone wih a different opinion

Are you a slogan writer for John Waters?

23% would be 'enough to get over the line' (the quota will be 20% of the valid poll) if all of the people who were against repealing the 8th amendment voted for a single anti-repeal candidate in this election.

But there are four such candidates - Devlin (FF), Hanafin (FF), Toibin (Aontu) and John Waters (Ind.).

A lot of that anti-repeal vote would have been traditional FF and FG voters. The vast bulk of whom will loyally vote for their party's candidates in a general election. So Waters and Toibin will not get any significant share of that 23%.

coylemj · 28-01-2020 2:58pm

scrumqueen wrote: »

RBB coming off very well from feedback around the place on last nights Leaders Debate on CB Live.

I wonder will it be enough to keep his seat. I see Paddy Power have him down as a dead cert.

Didn't watch the debate, heard he did very well. I see him as a dead cert, he got 16.5% of the first prefences in 2016 and bear in mind that the quota will be 20% this time.

All RBB has to do is sit back and wait for transfers from the fringe candidates because with his profile, he's a natural magnet for the 'anyone but FF/FG' voters.

scrumqueen · 28-01-2020 3:22pm

coylemj wrote: »

Didn't watch the debate, heard he did very well. I see him as a dead cert, he got 16.5% of the first prefences in 2016 and bear in mind that the quota will be 20% this time.

All RBB has to do is sit back and wait for transfers from the fringe candidates because with his profile, he's a natural magnet for the 'anyone but FF/FG' voters.

Yeah he did, his points were succinct and resonated. Was hearing a lot of mumblings about DLR his seat was at risk and the IT said as much too.

Yeah he's very much been a protest vote against FFFG but with the Green Wave now emerging I think they think the green may take his seat?

marieholmfan · 28-01-2020 3:36pm

Agent Smith wrote: »

Number of factors really,
Water isnt an issue anymore, People have More Money in their pockets, A sizeable amount of his Vote will go to the Greens, (look at PBP's Vote in the locals in 2019, Who Swayths went across to the greens from PBP)

But Smyth's surplus will go to RBB.

coylemj · 28-01-2020 4:29pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

But Smyth's surplus will go to RBB.

I've no doubt that Ossian Smyth will be elected and it's interesting to note that when he was eliminated in 2016, he gave a decent transfer to RBB.

But Smyth won't have a huge surplus - bear in mind that at general election time, a lot of people who vote on local issues in the local elections revert to party loyalty. So Smyth will be elected but I don't think he will have a huge surplus.

Edgware · 28-01-2020 5:40pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

But Smyth's surplus will go to RBB.

If he has a surplus or if eliminated with Rich boy still in. A lot of Green votes there will drift away to FG. The yummy mummies arent really in favour of the working class saviour

RedXIV · 28-01-2020 5:50pm

marieholmfan wrote: »

But Smyth's surplus will go to RBB.

I'll vote smyth but wouldn't vote RBB, tbh I've yet to see him do, propose or achieve anything useful since I first heard his name. Whereas I worked as a volunteer with Smyth before his political career even started. As others said, he works very hard and is involved in a lot.

Agent Smith · 29-01-2020 12:48pm

scrumqueen wrote: »

Hanafin was at Blackrock dart this morning, didn't have the appetite to be grilling her so kept going.

I hope she didnt have to park there!

I see She and her running mate voted in favor of increasing the price of the park and ride facilities, and parking in general. along with Ossain Smyth, Juliet O'Connell and David Quinn!

Link

Blut2 · 29-01-2020 1:36pm

Isn't there massive demand for those parking spaces, to the point where they could probably double or triple the price and still fill it every day?

Given that, increasing the price slightly seems a fairly sensible way to raise revenue for local services.

scrumqueen · 29-01-2020 2:48pm

Agent Smith wrote: »

I hope she didnt have to park there!

I see She and her running mate voted in favor of increasing the price of the park and ride facilities, and parking in general. along with Ossain Smyth, Juliet O'Connell and David Quinn!

Link

I saw that on twitter earlier, could barely believe it.

Blut2 wrote: »

Isn't there massive demand for those parking spaces, to the point where they could probably double or triple the price and still fill it every day?

Given that, increasing the price slightly seems a fairly sensible way to raise revenue for local services.

When I thought about it I figured it was probably a cash grab. But rates are such a deterrent and based off such an arbitrary and out of date method, increasing them when the town is struggling is to me quite bizarre.

Larbre34 · 29-01-2020 3:36pm

Agent Smith wrote: »

I hope she didnt have to park there!

I see She and her running mate voted in favor of increasing the price of the park and ride facilities, and parking in general. along with Ossain Smyth, Juliet O'Connell and David Quinn!

Link

In fairness, the lack of true local democracy means the council budget is put to them as a package. To pay for X, we need Y income etc. If they don't pass it, eventually they get abolished and a civil servant comes out from the Customs House to run things.

Its not flippin' a bit of extra loose change for parking that should be an issue in a national election, its the whole issue of the nature of local democracy.

In fact this speaks to my whole issue with Dáil elections. In multi-seat constituencies the nature of the competition turns TDs into glorified Councillors rather than legislators in the national interest (eg Healy-Raes) . If we had a list system, we would vote for the parties policies for national issues and they would be allocated the seats based on the outcome, with less clientilism locally. Its the whole reason 'gombeenism' is still the perception of things.

GE2020 - Dun Laoghaire (4 seater)

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