Corona Virus and events

robinph wrote: »

Keep off cruise ships is generally good advice to stay healthy.

Can't imagine their great running on anyway

robinph wrote: »

All depends what stats you are comparing between the flu and covid19. Some sites list 0.1% death rate for flu, of those infected but could vary between 0.4‰ and 3% for Covid19, or even 15% if they just talk about over 80 year olds.

I'm not concerned about a difference between 0.1% and 0.4% as whilst it several times higher it's still negligible.

This is not normally the place to debate medicine but I'm sick of the misinformation and misunderstanding about this.

As a doctor and following this closely, I have not seen any papers that indicate 0.4% mortality as likely. The figure generally estimated is 2-3%, though of course there is considerable uncertainty.

Yes, 0.1% death rate for flu is the generally quoted rate, though of course this varies considerably from year to year.

So, 20-30 times the death rate of flu is our best guess.

But, let's say we accept the extremely low end of the estimate as a 0.4% death rate.

You may regard this 0.4% mortality as negligible, I can assure you that puts you in the minority. Anyone working in this area would regard this figure as high.

As there is no vaccine and no prospect of one anytime soon, and we are only getting started with this outbreak, it is reasonable to expect a lot of deaths worldwide and perhaps in Ireland.

And the figure of 15-20 % needing hospitalisation and 5-10% with very serious illness needing ICU or similar treatment is HORRENDOUS. This may be the real problem here. The hospitalisation rate for flu is only around 1% and needing ICU care is very very rare for flu. In fact I don't think I can recall ever seeing it.

ICU care is incredibly resource intensive. It requires very high staffing, lots of resources and money, and depends on staff who are already in short supply. There are very few ICU beds around as it is. A decent sized Dublin hospital like Connolly Hospital only has 5-6 ICU beds and only 2 of these are in isolation and these are already full every day. A typical COVID patient needing ICU will be there for weeks. Naas hospital has one isolation ICU bed. I could go on.

What happens when you get 10, 20 or 100 extra ICU cases? What happens when you get ICU staff out sick? What happens to the rest of the hospital? There will be no surgeries for a start. The entire hospital will be grossly affected in a system that was already close to breakdown.

What happens if and when the entire country shuts down, with schools, business and shops closed? I'm not saying this WILL happen, but there is a decent chance of it. The UK is already contemplating shutting down entire cities as reported in the papers this morning.

What about the economic and social effects of doing this?


Now, I'm normally someone who gets annoyed at people over-estimating risk and I'd normally be someone who'd argue for a calm response to threats, but this situation is extremely worrying. And it's not going away. This is not likely to be over and done quickly like SARS, this threat may last for years. And even if the threat were actually low, is that how government and people will treat it? The US state of Washington is now in a state of emergency after just one death in the entire US so far. Expect similar strong reactions everywhere. This will greatly affect all of us, rightly or wrongly.

And for those who like to point out the risk is really for old and sick people as if this somehow makes it ok, then I don't know what to tell you except that you have a very strange way of looking at the world if you can so readily dismiss this cohort. These are our parents, relatives and friends. They are not disposable. They are real people too.

You might be 25 and healthy and feel like you have nothing to worry about but some of use are looking at a slightly bigger picture.

Once again, I'm not saying the worst case scenario WILL happen, I'm saying there's a decent chance this could get bad and that if it's bad it will be very bad indeed. And even if it isn't, the uncertainty around it will overshadow and haunt us for a long time. No mater what happens, we'll still be fretting over this in 2 months' time.

I'd love to be wrong about all this of course.

And, personally, I'm training for Manchester and I'd say it's 50/50 at best, probably less.

echancrure wrote: »

Back to the running...

If Manchester and / or Paris get cancelled (I am booked for Paris) is there a low key marathon in Ireland the week before that is less likely to be cancelled? (because it is not an international event etc.)

Although, perhaps weakening your immune system by running a marathon when a nasty virus is doing the round is perhaps not the wisest thing to do?

Check out the East Of Ireland running events (Google it)

AuldManKing wrote: »

Tralee is the week after Manchester.

https://official-tralee-marathon.com/

I was looking at that. Did some research on the events section and came up with this thread which relates to the same route as this year. The general consensus is that it's a tough route but I suppose beggars can't be choosers.

healy1835 wrote: »

If Manchester doesn't pan out, I'm banking the training the just moving along.

same here. Training wont be lost - I wont be doing a Marathon for the sake of it.

Was just thinking earlier that at the back end of last year, my main goal was a sub 60 10 miler - the HM in Bohermeen and then Manchester spawned from that.

Should M'Chester be cancelled, then I've still achieved my goal.
Plenty of local races to be done.

sideswipe wrote: »

I was looking at that. Did some research on the events section and came up with this thread which relates to the same route as this year. The general consensus is that it's a tough route but I suppose beggars can't be choosers.

Tralee is definitely a tough route - but somehow I still managed to run my lifetime PB on that very course! (I was in awesome shape that year)

healy1835 wrote: »

If Manchester doesn't pan out, I'm banking the training & just moving along.

AuldManKing wrote: »

same here. Training wont be lost - I wont be doing a Marathon for the sake of it.

Was just thinking earlier that at the back end of last year, my main goal was a sub 60 10 miler - the HM in Bohermeen and then Manchester spawned from that.

Should M'Chester be cancelled, then I've still achieved my goal.
Plenty of local races to be done.

Finding it hard to get my head around that option as I've thrown my lot in with going for a big target in Manchester. I just don't know where I'd begin to 'bank' the training. What exactly would that realistically look like and what would an appropriate next block be? Back into 5k/10k stuff for a while before rebuilding towards an Autumn marathon (which is my main goal this year).

sideswipe wrote: »

Finding it hard to get my head around that option as I've thrown my lot in with going for a big target in Manchester. I just don't know where I'd begin to 'bank' the training. What exactly would that realistically look like and what would an appropriate next block be? Back into 5k/10k stuff for a while before rebuilding towards an Autumn marathon (which is my main goal this year).

Yeah something similar to AMK, I'm running Amsterdam in the Autumn and whilst Manchester isn't a punt exactly, it was never the main target for the year. Saying that, I've put a hell of a lot of miles and effort in, so it's certainly the priority at the moment!

I've 5 Mile, 10 Mile PB's in the back pocket with hopefully a HM one to come Saturday..... but maybe I'd be feeling differently if I hadn't raced in the build up. That said, the idea of a Tralee or EOI marathon just wouldn't motivate me and Limerick or Cork are too close to the next block.

Meath Athletics are cancelling various events this weekend. IMO this is completely uncalled for.

I'm all for caution and I can see this situation getting bad over time but there is NO reason to cancel a local XC event this week.

As my post above says I can see this situation getting serious in the coming weeks but right now there is zero risk in a small local event. There'd be as much risk buying milk in the shop, frankly.

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Bohermeen half in that category?

Not as of now. They say it's up to Bohermeen AC.

The events are kids XC and indoors events I think. Of course the kids are already together in their schools which are not closed!

It's utterly pointless and only adds to the panic.

People say "ah sure you can't be too careful" which is ok up to a point but fear and panic are also harmful and spread a lot faster than a virus!

What I see happening now is a snowball of one cancelled events leads to another and another as everybody panics and nobody wants to be 'brave'.

Small local outdoor events have no risk as things stand. Official advice is to not cancel events.

Dudda wrote: »

Maybe they're expecting all the Italian Rugby fans who've paid for flights and accommodation to run local races in Meath as the match is cancelled?

Or maybe there is some kids in the XC who went on a school trip to Italy last week or 2

sideswipe wrote: »

Heres the text from Meath County board:


Meath Athletics Indoor T&F League Day 2 (4th March) and Day 3 (11th March) canceled.
Meath Athletics Primary School Cross Country this Friday (6th March) postponed.
In the light of advice received, we are taking the prudent precaution of making the above decisions in order to avoid unnecessary gatherings. This decision has not been taken lightly. We will look at other events as matters unfold over the next weeks.
Apologies for the inconvenience caused.
Meath County Board.

They are saying it was on the back of advice. I wonder who the advice was from? Hardly HSE as the government has said there is no plan to curtail mass participation events yet. Anyway, a few more confirmed cases and we'll likely see more postponements.

Dept of education maybe ? In light of school trips to northern Italy recently

pc11 wrote: »

Due to do Manchester myself.


I can't see St Patricks Day parade in Dublin happening if we have any kind of outbreak here, for example.

Every cloud...........;)

Belfast Marathon which is on May 4th - have cancelled the expo/number pick up. They have also made the decision to not give out t shirts at the event, which I find a really strange decision.

https://belfastcitymarathon.com/news/General/Important-Information-4-March-2020